CSF77
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I'd prefer Zimmermann over Samardzija as well but it's not like he's an enormous improvement. Again Samardzija had a disastrous year and was a 2.4 fWAR where Zimmermann, in a bit of a down year, was a 3.0 fWAR. Both had career years in 2014 but Samardzija looks more likely to repeat that year than Zimmermann does. Also if you look at their Steamer projections for next year they're nearly identical. Again though, I would prefer Zimmermann given the choice. His career has been remarkably consistent with his FIP always staying in the low to mid 3.0s, again 2014 looks to have been a statistical outlier, and all in all is the safer bet. On the other hand Samardzija has over 100 fewer innings on his arm and would be rejoining a pitching coach that really seemed to have him figured out in 2013 and 2104. In addition both are good ground ball pitchers which plays well in Wrigley, but at his best Samardzija could project to be better. So if you're making the argument of Zimmermann over Samardzija based on sample size and lower risk you would be correct, but if you're making it on Zimmermann being a far superior pitcher the numbers don't bear that out.
You're also making the wrong argument on money. It's not the 2016 money that would be the concern, it's the 2019 money if Price lost velocity a-la Verlander and was a #3 or starter at the time your arb bills are coming due on Bryant, Schwarber and Russell. Now if your argument would be to sign Greinke to 6/$180 based on the fact that his stuff looks to age well, much like Lester btw, (as opposed to Price who's stuff may not) and then roll with having three TOR starters in 2016 deciding now more or less to not sign Arrieta in 2018 or maybe even trade him for younger pitching next offseason, then I'd be with you. That's a sound argument. Probably the same AAV as Price, less risk and frees up Arrieta as a possible trade asset while having the core of an outstanding staff in 2016. In addition you could still trade for a Shelby Miller or a similar pitcher. That doesn't sound like what you're saying though lumping Price, Greinke and Cueto in together due to money. Each have separate strengths and frankly Greinke's most align with the Cubs core values. They just need to think all of this through and I know they are. It's not all about throwing money around to win it's about making sound decisions while, again, staying within organizational values and long term budget. That's what is going to take us to the promised land, if that's what is to be, not making hasty decisions on big money contracts.
If you were just factoring talent Zimmerman is better. But data shows that pitchers that have had TJ tend to lose effectiveness earlier than pitchers that have not. Sure they both have low miles but over a 4-7 year span Shark has a better chance of keeping at 200 IP per every year. Add to it with Shark you are looking at a 3-5 year deal vs a 6-7 for Zimmerman. You get out of the deal while he is at the tail end of his prime vs after his prime. Kinda like Dempster.
I get the risk with Shark. Stuff is good but has not translated to wins but wins/losses are more to do with the team and just dumb luck.
Now to Bears: Shark vs Feldman vs Wood a few years back. Sure the other 2 won more but you have to look at run support to justify that opinion. Add to it Wood at that time was hitting better than most on the line up. Back then the team lacked the ability to generate runs constantly. So having Wood hitting thaty day impacted the line up because it just sucked in general. There should be no team that depends on a pitcher to hit.