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TC in Mississippi

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No..
not if your hoping Samardzija matches the team win totals from that group last year .. so, no he wouldn't be an improvement from them unless he has a career year in wins..
Which is at 11 now

Samardzija to me is no better then Hammel, so they would once again be relying on Lester and Arrieta and hoping for the best with the others...


Austin Jackson could be their last option they could fall back on if all other choices fall through. ....


Again as i said before... If their serious about taking it to the next level in 2016, then they cant be thinking cheaper players
Price, Greinke, or Cueto should be their top choices if those guys are interested in coming to Chicago

Jackson probably is a last resort. He's likely not going to get the years he'd like because most teams looking at him see him as a a 4th OF. If they run out of options though he's not a terrible choice. He's a far better defender than Fowler but you lose the leadoff option from that position. Still Steamer projects Fowler to be a 1.7 fWAR player and Jackson to be a 1.4 fWAr player. There are some fit issues but, again, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

As far as your "cheap" angle goes this FO is trying to balance short term and long term. Their plan is to not build a single team to win a WS as other teams, and frankly other Cubs regimes have done, but instead try to build a team that can get to the playoffs almost every year. Their theory is based on the randomness of the playoffs and the fact that sometimes, no matter how you plan, baseball is going to baseball. I'm with that plan and if a huge pitching salary is going to hurt them in 3 years then I don't love that move. If they determine it won't so be it, I'd like to have Greinke or Price, but if they determine it will and they could trade for Shelby Miller and sign Samardzija then that's a hell of a staff. You compare Shark to Hammel but in a horrific year Samardzija still best Hammel in fWAR 2.7 to 2.4. the year before he was a fWAR of 4.1 which is a solid #3 starter. Again a guy like Miller and Shark plus the guys they have (I'd probably rather keep Hendricks than Hammel but that may not be up to them depending on who they trade with/for) makes for one of the best rotations in the NL. Don't look at W totals, those will lead you astray.
 

chibears55

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Come on now. Using wins in a argument. That is like saying Lester's season was poor last year based off of wins. Also Hammel is not a 200 IP guy. Shark is. The context of what I wrote was they need a guy that can soak innings to take pressure off of the pen.

add to it what they need to get over the hump is more contact hitting. So on Boo's argument of the added SO's with Jackson makes more sense. But I feel Bryant, Soler and Russell will decrease as they mature. 25-30% from Bryant. Russell should hover around 22% and Soler should be the same as they adapt. Schwarber I expect to be below 20% as he is the best pure hitter of the bunch. Almora is a contact hitter so that is the guy they need to push up.

That is the biggest factor going into 2016. Not any adds.

You said Samardzija would be an improvement over the group from last year. Only way he can improve the team is by bettering their wins total which was in double digits. .
In his 5 years as a starter he only done that once (11)

No , win totals dont tell a starter in a season but you can get a pretty good idea of what your getting from them consistently with those results over a few seasons ..


I dont want a guy to just soak up innings, i want a guy who can do that and win ballgames. ..

As a fan , im not going to be happy if Price Greinke or Cueto wanted to sign on but the cubs passed on them because they didn't want to pay 25+ for them and signed Samardzija instead for 17 or 18.. they cant turn away Aces for middle of pack just to save some money and have say 140 mil payroll instead of 150 when that could be the difference to going to a WS or not

Just to add... i would also prefer Jordan Zimmerman over Samardzija too..
so, there 4 guys i hope they try and work out a deal with before looking at samardzija, who if they do have to turn to him is only for a 1 year deal. ..
 

Boobaby1

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You said Samardzija would be an improvement over the group from last year. Only way he can improve the team is by bettering their wins total which was in double digits. .
In his 5 years as a starter he only done that once (11)

No , win totals dont tell a starter in a season but you can get a pretty good idea of what your getting from them consistently with those results over a few seasons ..


I dont want a guy to just soak up innings, i want a guy who can do that and win ballgames. ..

As a fan , im not going to be happy if Price Greinke or Cueto wanted to sign on but the cubs passed on them because they didn't want to pay 25+ for them and signed Samardzija instead for 17 or 18.. they cant turn away Aces for middle of pack just to save some money and have say 140 mil payroll instead of 150 when that could be the difference to going to a WS or not

Just to add... i would also prefer Jordan Zimmerman over Samardzija too..
so, there 4 guys i hope they try and work out a deal with before looking at samardzija, who if they do have to turn to him is only for a 1 year deal. ..

You also have to factor in that Shark didn't have a bounty of players around him here to win much, which I am sure was a huge strain on his competitiveness.

In his worst year as a starter for the Cubs in 2013, the Cubs scored 2 or less runs for him 11 times. In those games, Shark had a 5.73 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.

In the games that they scored 3 or more runs in the other 20 games, he had a 3.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. That was his worst year, so if a reunion comes back into play, he won't be a bad thing especially since he would not be the ACE, and maybe he could fit more comfortably in a three or four slot. Either way, he is a drastic improvement to Dan Haren in the rotation.
 

chibears55

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As far as your "cheap" angle goes this FO is trying to balance short term and long term. They're plan is to not build a single team to win a WS as other teams, and frankly other Cubs regimes have done, but instead try to build a team that can get to the playoffs almost every year. Their theory is based on the randomness of the playoffs and the fact that sometimes, no matter how you plan, baseball is going to baseball. I'm with that plan and if a huge pitching salary is going to hurt them in 3 years then I don't love that move. If they determine it won't so be it, I'd like to have Greinke or Price, but if they determine it will and they could trade for Shelby Miller and sign Samardzija then that's a hell of a staff. You compare Shark to Hammel but in a horrific year Samardzija still best Hammel in fWAR 2.7 to 2.4. the year before he was a fWAR of 4.1 which is a solid #3 starter. Again a guy like Miller and Shark plus the guys they have (I'd probably rather keep Hendricks than Hammel but that may not be up to them depending on who they trade with/for) makes for one of the best rotations in the NL. Don't look at W totals, those will lead you astray.

If cubs had future ace pitching prospects id totally agree with not signing too many high priced starters now..

That said, 3 years from now they will be getting that big TV deal
plus all the other assets they will have coming in by then..
Money should not be an issue by then


Look at their payroll from 2017 to 21, it goes from 60 mil to 10
because they have a team filled with young players under their control over the next 5+ years..
No better time then now to take advantage of that and bring in a high priced player or two to help take this team to the next level.
 

chibears55

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You also have to factor in that Shark didn't have a bounty of players around him here to win much, which I am sure was a huge strain on his competitiveness.

In his worst year as a starter for the Cubs in 2013, the Cubs scored 2 or less runs for him 11 times. In those games, Shark had a 5.73 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.

That would be a good argument except the fact that same year with that same team had 3 other starters with less talent then him win more or same amount of games as he did..

Travis Wood 9 wins
Edwin Jackson 8 wins
Scott Feldman 7 wins in just 15 starts

Samardzija on paper has good stuff and all the intangible but he doesn't get you the positive results where it counts..wins..



Yes Samardzija an improvement over Haren and others talent wise If the Cubs were looking for just that. .
But i think and hope they are looking for much better then that with their FA signing of choice. .
They have a big opportunity now to sign a guy to add to Lester and Arrieta at the top of rotation and make a huge push for the WS over just being a playoff contender..

Again Samardzija should be a last option on a 1 year deal and hope to get a career year out of him in a FA year in which he needs to show everyone he legit if he wants a big pay day.
 

TC in Mississippi

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You said Samardzija would be an improvement over the group from last year. Only way he can improve the team is by bettering their wins total which was in double digits. .
In his 5 years as a starter he only done that once (11)

No , win totals dont tell a starter in a season but you can get a pretty good idea of what your getting from them consistently with those results over a few seasons ..


I dont want a guy to just soak up innings, i want a guy who can do that and win ballgames. ..

As a fan , im not going to be happy if Price Greinke or Cueto wanted to sign on but the cubs passed on them because they didn't want to pay 25+ for them and signed Samardzija instead for 17 or 18.. they cant turn away Aces for middle of pack just to save some money and have say 140 mil payroll instead of 150 when that could be the difference to going to a WS or not

Just to add... i would also prefer Jordan Zimmerman over Samardzija too..
so, there 4 guys i hope they try and work out a deal with before looking at samardzija, who if they do have to turn to him is only for a 1 year deal. ..

I'd prefer Zimmermann over Samardzija as well but it's not like he's an enormous improvement. Again Samardzija had a disastrous year and was a 2.4 fWAR where Zimmermann, in a bit of a down year, was a 3.0 fWAR. Both had career years in 2014 but Samardzija looks more likely to repeat that year than Zimmermann does. Also if you look at their Steamer projections for next year they're nearly identical. Again though, I would prefer Zimmermann given the choice. His career has been remarkably consistent with his FIP always staying in the low to mid 3.0s, again 2014 looks to have been a statistical outlier, and all in all is the safer bet. On the other hand Samardzija has over 100 fewer innings on his arm and would be rejoining a pitching coach that really seemed to have him figured out in 2013 and 2104. In addition both are good ground ball pitchers which plays well in Wrigley, but at his best Samardzija could project to be better. So if you're making the argument of Zimmermann over Samardzija based on sample size and lower risk you would be correct, but if you're making it on Zimmermann being a far superior pitcher the numbers don't bear that out.

You're also making the wrong argument on money. It's not the 2016 money that would be the concern, it's the 2019 money if Price lost velocity a-la Verlander and was a #3 or starter at the time your arb bills are coming due on Bryant, Schwarber and Russell. Now if your argument would be to sign Greinke to 6/$180 based on the fact that his stuff looks to age well, much like Lester btw, (as opposed to Price who's stuff may not) and then roll with having three TOR starters in 2016 deciding now more or less to not sign Arrieta in 2018 or maybe even trade him for younger pitching next offseason, then I'd be with you. That's a sound argument. Probably the same AAV as Price, less risk and frees up Arrieta as a possible trade asset while having the core of an outstanding staff in 2016. In addition you could still trade for a Shelby Miller or a similar pitcher. That doesn't sound like what you're saying though lumping Price, Greinke and Cueto in together due to money. Each have separate strengths and frankly Greinke's most align with the Cubs core values. They just need to think all of this through and I know they are. It's not all about throwing money around to win it's about making sound decisions while, again, staying within organizational values and long term budget. That's what is going to take us to the promised land, if that's what is to be, not making hasty decisions on big money contracts.
 

chibears55

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You're also making the wrong argument on money. It's not the 2016 money that would be the concern, it's the 2019 money if Price lost velocity a-la Verlander and was a #3 or starter at the time your arb bills are coming due on Bryant, Schwarber and Russell. Now if your argument would be to sign Greinke to 6/$180 based on the fact that his stuff looks to age well, much like Lester btw, (as opposed to Price who's stuff may not) and then roll with having three TOR starters in 2016 deciding now more or less to not sign Arrieta in 2018 or maybe even trade him for younger pitching next offseason, then I'd be with you. That's a sound argument. Probably the same AAV as Price, less risk and frees up Arrieta as a possible trade asset while have an outstanding staff in 2016. In addition you could still trade for a Shelby Miller or a similar pitcher. They just need to think all of this through and I know they are. It's not all about throwing money around to win it's about making sound decisions while staying within organizational values and long term budget. That's what is going to take us to the promised land, if that's what is to be, not making hasty decisions on big money contracts.

That the risk you take on every starter you sign for big money, you dont know how many solid years your gonna get from them. Why i said if they had solid pitching prospects in system then i wouldn't sign too many high priced starters. .

They can give samardzija 5 yrs at 18 per and he can continue to be mediocre or blow an arm. .

They can give Arrieta money and he can blow an arm or just never live up to the contract. .

Its all a risk.but id rather risk it on guys with a successful track record even if it cost more over someone who middle of pack.


You keep worrying about future payroll. ..
Again, by the time these kids Arbs are up the cubs will be rolling in dough with the TV deals and other assets.

They can be the Angels or Dodgers if they choose too but let worry about 5,6,7 years from now then, who knows what of these players will still be good or even playing. ..

They have an opportunity now with this group to take a huge step forward, so if it takes adding Price or Greinke at 25+ to get them to that next level, then that what they should do.
They
 

TC in Mississippi

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That the risk you take on every starter you sign for big money, you dont know how many solid years your gonna get from them. Why i said if they had solid pitching prospects in system then i wouldn't sign too many high priced starters. .

They can give samardzija 5 yrs at 18 per and he can continue to be mediocre or blow an arm. .

They can give Arrieta money and he can blow an arm or just never live up to the contract. .

Its all a risk.but id rather risk it on guys with a successful track record even if it cost more over someone who middle of pack.

Again they're different risks and you have to look at a bigger picture. You were trying to say that Zimmermann was by far and away the better pitcher between he and Samardzija. That wasn't correct. I would say that if it were my decision and I could have either and the prices were 6/$120 for JZ and 5/$85 for JS I'm going JZ all the way. Now lets say it's 6/$132 versus 5/$75, do you make the same decision? I probably wouldn't because the risk/reward has changed quite a bit, at that point you're $62 million difference, you know the cheaper guy, presumably you believe in him while you don't know the other guy with more innings on his arm and an greater injury history. Sure, as you say either guy could blow out his arm tomorrow but you try to evaluate that risk vs. the reward. Same thing with Price and Greinke. If you're going after one Greinke makes more sense. Both make you better immediately but Greinke is a) more likely to recover from an injury and still be a very good pitcher b) probably less likely to have the injury in the first place. Then you have years vs money. These are complicated decisions.


You keep worrying about future payroll. ..
Again, by the time these kids Arbs are up the cubs will be rolling in dough with the TV deals and other assets.

They can be the Angels or Dodgers if they choose too but let worry about 5,6,7 years from now then, who knows what of these players will still be good or even playing. ..

They have an opportunity now with this group to take a huge step forward, so if it takes adding Price or Greinke at 25+ to get them to that next level, then that what they should do.

All I'm saying is the future payroll is a factor. Yes they have a lot of money coming with the TV deal and revenues in general are on the rise. That doesn't mean you make silly business decisions. On top of that this team is never going to have a Dodgers size payroll, hell the Dodgers aren't either as they're looking to trim $100 million off their annual payroll within 2 years. Most of the big market teams will be in the luxury tax and sit in the $200 million range because going over that hasn't proven to increase chances of winning. No one has been more vocal in saying they need to add 2 pitchers than I have. I believe it. I'm not opposed to a big money guy if it makes sense. Price doesn't make sense to me and Cueto really doesn't. There are ways to make Greinke and Zimmermann work. There are ways to make a trade with Cleveland, Atalanta or Tampa Bay work. A balanced, nuanced approach is going to make this team better now and going forward.
 

chibears55

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Again they're different risks and you have to look at a bigger picture. You were trying to say that Zimmermann was by far and away the better pitcher between he and Samardzija. That wasn't correct. I would say that if it were my decision and I could have either and the prices were 6/$120 for JZ and 5/$85 for JS I'm going JZ all the way. Now lets say it's 6/$132 versus 5/$75, do you make the same decision? I probably wouldn't because the risk/reward has changed quite a bit, at that point you're $62 million difference, you know the cheaper guy, presumably you believe in him while you don't know the other guy with more innings on his arm and an greater injury history. Sure, as you say either guy could blow out his arm tomorrow but you try to evaluate that risk vs. the reward. Same thing with Price and Greinke. If you're going after one Greinke makes more sense. Both make you better immediately but Greinke is a) more likely to recover from an injury and still be a very good pitcher b) probably less likely to have the injury in the first place. Then you have years vs money. These are complicated decisions.




All I'm saying is the future payroll is a factor. Yes they have a lot of money coming with the TV deal and revenues in general are on the rise. That doesn't mean you make silly business decisions. On top of that this team is never going to have a Dodgers size payroll, hell the Dodgers aren't either as they're looking to trim $100 million off their annual payroll within 2 years. Most of the big market teams will be in the luxury tax and sit in the $200 million range because going over that hasn't proven to increase chances of winning. No one has been more vocal in saying they need to add 2 pitchers than I have. I believe it. I'm not opposed to a big money guy if it makes sense. Price doesn't make sense to me and Cueto really doesn't. There are ways to make Greinke and Zimmermann work. There are ways to make a trade with Cleveland, Atalanta or Tampa Bay work. A balanced, nuanced approach is going to make this team better now and going forward.

Dodgers are now a team of end of career high priced players their looking to shed..
They went all in team wise..
Also, they might be shedding payroll on big league club but they just spent as i read 88 mil on IFA, so their still spending. .

Im not saying the cubs should go that route of signing or adding all these over the top salary. .
Just saying if the need or luxary is available to add a player or two at a cost, then money not going to be a problem in the future. .



Again, im not saying over pay to get quality
If they can get Price or Greinke at 25 or so then go for it
If it hits 30+, then yes they should back off..

Zimmerman not getting 22 per from anyone and Samardzija not going to accept 15 for 5 either, so that example not good.

Zimmerman will get in the 18 to 20 range
Samardzija would take 17 or 18 as a low end or possibly take a 1 year deal to improve his status next off season. ..

Price Greinke Cueto. .ill take whoever wants to sign for best deal...

Zimmerman at a couple per more then Samardzija, Zimmerman all day.....


I will take Price Greinke or Cueto at 25+ over both Zimmerman and Samardzija at 17 to 20...


Again, if cubs are looking to add a TOR guy, then they gotta pay that price to get him... if their looking for middle of pack money then yes they go to Zimmerman or a little less with Samardzija

As a fan , i hope their goal is that top guy


I think were on same page TC
I just expanded my wish list to any of those 3 or Zimmerman as a last resort to where you just pretty much prefer Greinke. .

I also feel their 2nd starter they add may come via trade or as i think about it now, it could be Samardzija if it on a 1 year deal and no reasonable trade is worked out...
Maybe that was the subject of conversation they had...

You know like, hey if you dont get your multi deal you want and we cant work out a trade.. we could work out a 1 yr deal to benifit both sides
 

DanTown

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Theo's plan in the rebuild has been to specifically target hitters at the top of the draft and then look for value with pitchers (i.e tough to sign guys) later in the draft. It's a risky strategy but the Cubs have also shown a willingness to invest in SP in FA (they were in on Tanaka, Sanchez, signed Jackson) that were not bargain hunting. If you're going to go this route and not look for potential TOR arms (3 of the Mets TOR arms were top 10 picks), you have to invest in SP via FA. Right now the Cubs 2016 AND 2017 rotation really need to be signed. While the Cubs maybe have a spot for just one starter, they need to look at 2017/2018 and realize that they may have another hole when Hammel leaves.

The logical scenario for the Cubs is to invest heavy in the SP market, look to move Hammel (potentially Hendricks in a trade for a better arm i.e Soler+Hendricks for say Salazar) to save some money/face with the fact he wouldn't have a chance to start here, and then sign a cheaper CF for the bottom of the order. Obviously cost is the most important factor when it comes to FA pitchers but that doesn't mean that talent can be disregarded.

I think everyone here would say that Zimmerman is a better pitcher than Jeff S. While Jeff S is an improvement over the pupu 5th starter, does he make the team more likely to win in the playoffs? For me, it's about who do you want starting game 3 of a series 1-1 with the season on the line. And to me, that means I'd rather have Zimmerman even if he's a few million more a year/an extra year. Because to be honest, that extra cost isn't that much for the Cubs. And unless you can point to signing say a second elite SP (i.e Cuteo AND Jeff S instead of Zimmerman and say Mike Leake), I don't see how Jeff S compares to the other arms in FA.

tl;dr if Samardzija is the best pitcher the Cubs acquire via FA then I think they've made a mistake; however, maybe Jeff's lower cost will allow them to sign a second quality arm.
 

TC in Mississippi

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I'd rather have Shark.

There's a part of me that agrees. He could very easily have a killer year or two, he could also have another 2015 which is why given a choice I think I'd go Zimmermanm if the difference was $40 mil or less.

To chibears' point the estimates on Zimmermann keep going up. I heard 6/$132 speculated on last night, I know Heyman thinks he's going to be a Dodger and that they might overpay a little to get him. As far as Shark, yeah I think he's getting somewhere between that 5/$75 and 5/$85 I said above. What I find remarkable about that was when he was looking $110 mil from the Cubs in a extension they offered him 5/$85. I think that's right around his value right about now. If he'd sign for the lower number I'd jump on that. Add Shelby Miller to that rotation and you gotta good 'un.
 

chibears55

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I'd rather have Shark.
So did Sox fans who thought they had a gamer to slot in the 3 hole and not have to worry about being the Ace..
Look how that turned out

The Samardzija and Garza are fan favorites because they look the part but they never quite live up to expectations
 

DanTown

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-up-with-jeff-samardzija/

A combination of mechanics tweaking and not having a horrible defense behind him will help Shark a lot. He is the one pitcher in the upper tier that could out perform his contract.

See, if your bargain shopping for SP in a sense, not sure why you'd go with him over Zimmerman. Zimmerman's previous two years WAR (2013-2014) were 3.7/5.3. If you look at Zimmerman's 2014/15 seasons together, I think you see a lot of similarities but a vast difference in HR per 9 (.59 vs 1.07). I think Zimmerman had terrible luck with HR but was eerily similar to a top 5 CY Young pitcher he was in 2013.

If Zimmerman can be had for basically 20 million a year, he's probably the best value in the market. People are paying nearly 80 million more for Price/Grienke.
 

TC in Mississippi

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So did Sox fans who thought they had a gamer to slot in the 3 hole and not have to worry about being the Ace..
Look how that turned out

The Samardzija and Garza are fan favorites because they look the part but they never quite live up to expectations

Don't get me wrong. Samardzija is no ace. He's a 3 can occasionally play like a 2 although he used to dream he was an ace and some people agreed. As long as he doesn't descend into last year, which I think had an awful lot to do with going form a career high of 12.3% cutters in 2014 to 24.6 in 2015. That's actually a crazy jump. There was no velocity loss and no injury. That is something Bosio should be able to fix. You say that he will never live to expectations and if those are that he's a solid TOR, than no he's never living up to those. However if the reasonable expectations are that he's a solid MOR, sometimes a little better with a FIP in the low to mid 3's, between 7-9 K/9 and a BB/9 under 3 than he should meet those. He's a 3.5 to 4 fWAR pitcher if he's on. That's Zimmermann range.
 

SilenceS

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See, if your bargain shopping for SP in a sense, not sure why you'd go with him over Zimmerman. Zimmerman's previous two years WAR (2013-2014) were 3.7/5.3. If you look at Zimmerman's 2014/15 seasons together, I think you see a lot of similarities but a vast difference in HR per 9 (.59 vs 1.07). I think Zimmerman had terrible luck with HR but was eerily similar to a top 5 CY Young pitcher he was in 2013.

If Zimmerman can be had for basically 20 million a year, he's probably the best value in the market. People are paying nearly 80 million more for Price/Grienke.

I think Zimmerman gets over 30 million more than Shark. I wouldn't mind Zimmerman, but he isn't an Ace either and has already had Tommy John. I always worry about how long pitchers go after that. Also, while watching him last year. He was not a dominant pitcher. Yet again, I don't mind him either but I think Shark is cheaper and his familiarity with Bosio makes it a decent fit.
 

Parade_Rain

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My favorite teams
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  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
So did Sox fans who thought they had a gamer to slot in the 3 hole and not have to worry about being the Ace..
Look how that turned out

The Samardzija and Garza are fan favorites because they look the part but they never quite live up to expectations
The Sox were crap. Shark did well with Bosio. That is what matters to me.
 

chibears55

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Don't get me wrong. Samardzija is no ace. He's a 3 can occasionally play like a 2 although he used to dream he was an ace and some people agreed. As long as he doesn't descend into last year, which I think had an awful lot to do with going form a career high of 12.3% cutters in 2014 to 24.6 in 2015. That's actually a crazy jump. There was no velocity loss and no injury. That is something Bosio should be able to fix. You say that he will never live to expectations and if those are that he's a solid TOR, than no he's never living up to those. However if the reasonable expectations are that he's a solid MOR, sometimes a little better with a FIP in the low to mid 3's, between 7-9 K/9 and a BB/9 under 3 than he should meet those. He's a 3.5 to 4 fWAR pitcher if he's on. That's Zimmermann range.
I dont have a huge problem if they ended up with Samardzija
just as long as options 1 thru 4 fell through because they either chose another team over the Cubs or their price got ridiculous .

I just dont want to read that they could of had one of those other starters but chose Samardzija based on him being the cheaper option.
 

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