You're the GM (Game)

[SilenceS]

Two things

1. Zobrist's "low" WAR number was due to the fact he turned into a massive negative player defensively. While that's something that happens with age, I'm not so sure that's true regarding his play. I mean he doesn't have to be the usual plus defender he was; his bat's elite enough that if he simply is average defensively, you're probably looking at a 3-4 fWAR guy.

2. Zobrist was basically two guys

Pre Injury (1 month): .240/.304/.400 with per 162 numbers of 12 HR - 93 RBI - 58BB/35 SO
Post Injury (Memorial Day on): .281/.365/.456 with per 162 numbers of 18HR - 70 RBI - 83BB/77SO

The other thing Zobrist does is he bats lead-off and he doesn't strike out, two things the Cubs want to heavily address. So while he's "seven million" more than Castro, he does more for you than Castro does. I mean if you don't get Zobrist, who leads off?

I remember when Cubs fans were mad when Mark Derosa got traded.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Tough to fathom putting Rizzo in the lead off spot. He has the necessary OBP but it would be nice to have a legitimate base stealing threat. Plus, as others have mentioned, Rizzo is a classic middle of the order guy. You want his power at the plate with guys already on.

It's tough finding the legitimate lead off guys. Remember when we tried for years and years? And finally Hendry brought in Juan Pierre? Or the decades-long pursuit of Dave Roberts?

 

[beckdawg]

Beckdawg,
This will be my last on this I believe so the last word is yours. You are saying Gray wouldn;t have at least a .5 to 1.0 increase in his k rate by going to the NL and getting the #8 and #9 hitters to throw too? Gray is a top 10-15 pitcher with the upside of being in the top 5. Kyle had a nice start, but he's not had a full year and dh guys are never that valuable in trade and always overvalued by their current teams (See Ortiz).

You'd never get Sale with a starting offer of Kyle straight up. That conversation falls on deaf ears. I'm not even sure you would get the conversation started with Q either.

Gray projects to have a solid career. I think at the worst he's Mark Buerhle. That's his floor. What's Kyle's floor? I'm not sure, but guys bust all the time. I think Kyle's ceiling is Adam Dunn. Good ceiling to have by the way. Show me the examples of Sonny Gray pitchers that got traded for less than Kyle. I am not sure that they are out there. I could be wrong though.

And for those that need this to be said, I like Kyle. I don't think he'll ever be anything other than a two tools player. That's still pretty solid if he fulfills his promise.

In reference to the K rate, no I don't. Jon Lester had a 9.01 k/9 in the AL last year and a 9.09 k/9 in the NL this year. Shifts between the leagues aren't really that drastic. If anything it's ERA and that's not as big as you'd think because DH's aren't what they were in the steroid ERA. In 2015, DH's hit .264/.334/.453 which is good but in 2000 that was .277/.362/.484. With regard to Gray, I honestly think he's a low variance player meaning what you see today is basically what he is. His floor is basically this level minus a little and his ceiling is basically this level plus little. There's nothing in his numbers that suggest a higher potential. If anything, his below average BABIP and his ERA being below his FIP would suggest he's pitched better than expected. As I said at some point, I think that's some what sustainable but I'm just saying if anything it's likely to regress rather than get substantially better.

As for trades, I mean it's entirely dependent on how good you think he is which there's obviously a difference between us. I think Josh Beckett is a better pitcher than Gray was and he was traded along with a good Lowell for Hanley and Sanchez. Hanley was top 15 or so while Sanchez was top 75 or so. Pedro Martinez was traded at 25 for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. Basically, if you get to the point where you're trading any of these pitchers be it Gray or Sale or whomever, you're almost always getting a short end of the stick just because prospects are risky. Hanley and Sanchez are probably one of the few cases where it's "fair." More often than not you get one good player and a handful parts. For example, I'm not saying Garza is as good as Gray here but at this point, Olt's gone from that trade and while Grimm and Ramirez have been good BP pieces, they are still RP's. Had Garza pitched as advertised the deal doesn't look as good. It all sort of rests on Edwards being either a lock down closer or returning to be a starter.

As for Schwarber, I can sort of see the Dunn comparison but I don't think Dunn was as good of a hitter. Both are likely to be bad LF/DH though I think it's a bit early to call it on Schwarber considering he hasn't really even played much in the minors. The difference to me is Dunn had a career 28.6% K rate with his 15.8% bb rate making him a career .237/.364/.490 hitter. Schwarber hit .246/.355/.487 as a rookie with 13.2%/28.2% bb/k rate. You would expect his K rate to fall some next year and in the minors he was more a 20% k rate guy. If anything, Dunn would be his floor. With Schwarber, I think you can look at his .278/.396/.557 with a 14.6%/23.6% bb/k rate vs righties and see the potential. Lefties abused him where he hit .143/.213/.268 with a 8.2%/44.3%. You face lefties about 25% of the time but the thing is Rizzo hit .189/.282/.342 vs lefties in 2013, .208/.243/.356 in 2012, and .172/.273/.345 in 2011. 2015 Rizzo hit .294/.409/.472 vs lefties. And if there's any player that Schwarber is like, it's Rizzo. Both are lefties who walk well and at least in the minors for Schwarber haven't struck out a ton. Also, I think it's worth noting that Schwarber was drafted June 5th of 2014. He was in the majors on june 16th of 2015. That's actually absurd how quickly he was in the majors. Bryant(top 2013 college bat) didn't even make the majors that quickly. Colin Moran drafted 6th in 2013 is in AA. Hunter Dozier drafted 8th in 2013 is in AA. Those were all college bats. Additionally, keep in mind how Schwarber hit in the post season. Sample size and all but you're talking about .333/.419/1.308 with 5 HR's in 27 ABs against 2 great staffs in NYM and the Cards and Cole for the Pirates.

I can understand wanting to temper expectations on Schwarber. The thing is, Schwarber was roughly 4.5 fWAR player if your prorate him over the 2015 season and that's with his defensive struggles which just goes to show you how absurd his bat was. He hit roughly equivalent to Bryant who had a full 10 or so months of development on him. And Bryant by the way had the 4th highest fWAR in the last 30 years of any rookie behind Trout in 2012, Piazza in 93, and Pujols in 2001. Bryant was also 14th all time as a rookie in fWAR. In AA which was the last stop Schwarber was age appropriate and spent meaningful time, he hit .320/.438/.579 with a 17.3%/20.2% bb/k rate. The scary thing is Schwarber's righty splits aren't far off those numbers and you'd expect some improvement.

And of course all that assume he can't play C and that he'll be below average in LF. If for whatever reason he does settle in as even a Piazza level catcher, you're talking about a potential top 5-10ish bat as a C. To give some idea of that value, Piazza as a 29 year old was traded with Todd Zeile to the Florida Marlins for Manuel Barrios, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson and Gary Sheffield. At that point, Bonilla was a 3ish fWAR player, Sheff was a 4-5ish fWAR player, Johnson was coming off a 4.8 fWAR season at 25, Eisenreich was a semi-useless bench player apparently and Barrios appears to be a nothing pitching prospect though i'm unsure if he was that at the time. Zeile was around a 2.5 fWAR guy. Zeile and Bonilla probably cancel each other out. So Piazza with 1 year of control for Sheff, Charles Johnson who was 25 and a pretty good catcher and two parts. To put that in modern day terms, that'd be basically like trading for Yan Gomes and like Jose Bautista plus spare parts.

Long story short, Schwarber's ceiling is massive. I'd argue unlike Gray though there is a lot of variance for him because if he's anything defensively that totally changes his value. If you think he's only a DH that hampers his value some though Ortiz as probably a worse defender and still had a peak of 6.3 fWAR. Likewise, how well Schwarber hits vs lefties will vastly change him. Look at 2013 Rizzo vs the past two years to see how much those two vary. As such, if you're saying that 2015 LF/DH only Schwarber is all you're ever going to get then I suppose I can see Gray holding slightly more value than him. But in my view, as a hitter 2015 Schwarber is just scratching the surface. You don't even have to play with the numbers much to see a 35-40 HR hitter with .375-.400 OBP which is a top 10 hitter no matter how you slice it. You're basically talking about him cutting 5% off his k rate in 2016 and he's essentially there. And if he ends up cutting his K rate 10-15% like Rizzo did after his initial call up I mean... who the hell knows how good he'll be.

 

[brett05]

I don't agree, but I appreciate your thought process.

 

[DanTown]

Well I think you need two pitchers

I don't see the need for two SP if you instead get someone at the Cuteo/Grienke level. That's three top flight/TOR arms and then you have two guys (Hammel/Hendricks) providing depth. In a playoff series, you'd have 6 of the 7 starts by top pitchers. I can't imagine a need to upgrade those back end guys.

Compare 1-5 at every level of baseball and the only teams you don't wash/advantage are in the NL are the Mets (who likely won't have anywhere close to the offense you'd have), maybe Dodgers if they resign Grienke and add another arm (doubtful they do that though), and that's about it.

so someone is going in a trade, likely Soler, but on the surface this isn't a bad scenario, I just think landing Zobrist might be tough. If someone goes 4/$60 do you still want him?

I'll answer both these questions at the same time. No, I don't see the Cubs deciding to trade Soler. The tricky part of trading Soler is two fold: one, you don't really have a RF on the roster to replace him (the obvious answer is Bryant to RF but that's a lot of miles for a 6'5" guy to run) and you obviously are selling significantly lower than you would have at any point in the previous two years and Soler simply hasn't regressed skill wise to make that move logical now. If the Cubs had concerns with Soler's ability long term, I think they would have moved him last winter. I also can't imagine the Cubs would trade Soler to open a spot for Baez when Soler has been a better prospect/player at every age/level than Baez.

Zobrist at 4/60 means he basically has to be a 8 WAR player over the life of that deal to make it fair value. I'd be utterly shocked if his fielding+bat regress enough to make that question. Ben Zobrist is always massively underrated due to the lack of doing any one thing at an elite level but when you combine everything he does, it adds up to an elite player. If you trade Castro so the deal is whatever that nets you plus 20 million for Zobrist, I can't see the issues.

Jackson is going to cost 3/$27 unless he takes a pillow contract. At that price I might look elsewhere and give Baez a shot at CF at least part time.

If Jackson takes a guaranteed 2/20 with a TO for a 3/32 deal, I can't see him turning that down. It's an obvious bet on himself but if the Cubs wanted, they could do

3/32
2016 - 8 million (PO for 2017)
2017 - 10 million
2018 - 2million/12million TO

If Jackson exceeds his value, he's perfectly positioned to strike in FA and if he doesn't find a market, he has a guaranteed 2/20. I think in 2017, if he doesn't fall of a cliff, he's looking at making enough to make the deal worth the risk.

 

[Omeletpants]

Soler for Shelby Miller?????
http://www.nbcsports.com/player-news?sport=MLB#player-news-item_1

 

[beckdawg]

Most stats that value pitchers in any way rely heavily on SO because it's a more controllable stat than say hits and other things because we have no idea if BABIP is a product of

1. Elite defense
2. Luck
3. Elite way to create "weak" contact

Here's an example, we can compare Sonny Gray and Chris Sale to each other because they both pitched 208 innings (an extra 2/3 for Sale) and made 31 starts

First, the basics

Gray -
2.73 ERA
3.45 FIP
3.8 fWAR
7.31 K/9
2.55 BB/9
.255 BABIP
.217/.273/.316 against

Sale
3.41 ERA
2.73 FIP
6.2 WAR
11.82 K/9
1.81 BB/9
.324 BABIP
.233/.282/.368

Obviously a few things stand out
- Sale had a horrific BABIP for an elite pitcher (.282 in 2014)
- Sale had historic K and K-BB numbers

Now let's look at a few more numbers

Ground ball rate
Gray - 52.7%
Sale - 42.6%

Flyball rate
Gray - 30.7%
Sale - 35.3%

Line drive rate
Gray - 16.6%
Sale - 22.1%

HR/FB rate
Gray - 9.3%
Sale - 12.5%

By every measure, Gray gives up less "bad" contact (line drives, flyballs, flyball/HR) so while he doesn't get strike outs at close to the rate Sale does, he makes up for that with a fairly rare combo of 50%+GB rate with decent K numbers. I mean sure, Sale will strike out more hitters but in a seven inning start, the difference is usually only 3-4 SO; however, in the other 20+ PA, Sale is more likely to give up a FB, his FB leads to more HR than Gray, he gives up more line drives.

Now, the obvious question is how much did each pitcher rely on their defense. The White Sox famously had the 30th ranked total defense according to Fangraphs but the Athletics had the 26th defense so it's not as if Gray benefited from that.

And while a popular argument has been Gray pitches in Oakland thus he has better numbers, the stats don't bear out that Gray (in 2015) relied on pitching at home. In fact, he gave up significantly more HR in Oakland than away.

Tl;dr: looking at stats like K/9 and FIP are circular stats since they measure the same thing (how well can a pitcher limit contact) but you have to measure if a pitcher does have an elite ability to induce weak contact and/or GB.

Not discounting all you have to say here but comparing HR/FB for a pitcher from Oakland and the Cell is a bit unfair. The cell is a top 5 HR park and Oakland is probably bottom 5 or 10 despite what Gray himself did and his 11.5% HR/FB rate in Oakland itself I believe is league average. If we're looking at Sale there, his home HR/FB is 15.1% and on the road it's 9.9% which is in line with his career numbers. So, even if Oakland isn't helping Gray all that much, the Cell is DEFINITELY hurting Sale. Additionally, while both defensives weren't great, Oakland's OF defense was 13th vs 29th for the Sox. I'd argue that's far more important than infield defense because bad OF defense lead to doubles/triples not singles. That also likely plays into the line drive rate some though honestly I'm not sure how much as I'm not 100% on how they calculate the difference. Suffice to say, there's likely at least a few shots into the gap that got labeled line drives which could have been caught by a better defense. BABIP is also probably a poor measure of weak contact in this case because the Sox obviously had a terrible defense. I understand the idea behind FIP being circular as you mention. Luckily, fangraphs has this covered with contact type. Sale had 21.0% soft, 53.7% medium 25.3% hard. Gray had 18.3%, 56.7%, 25.0%. So, you're talking about 3% or so more med/hard for Gray. That's probably on the edge of being noise/reliable.

Overall, if we're talking these two pitchers, I just feel Sale's style of pitching is more park/defensive independent. He pitched with the worst defense in the league behind him, in the AL, and in one of the top 5-10 hitters parks in the league. It doesn't get much worse than that and still put up a 3.41 ERA. Like I said before though, I'm not saying Gray is a bad pitcher. I just don't see him having another level. And while I can appreciate Gray's GB rate, it's a pretty weak correlation to "elite." Gray's 52.7% was ~1.5% better than Hendricks who as I mentioned before had better FIP components and who's contact type was 18.7%, 55.8%, 25.6% which is near identical to Gray. Like I've said before, I'll argue Hendricks is better than people want to admit but realistically the only difference between the two stat wise is Hendricks has ~4% higher line drive rate for his career, a higher HR/FB rate for Hendricks in 2015(though his 9.6 career is right in line with Gray) and the fact that Gray's pitched 20-30 more innings in the past 2 years. Gray might also be better the third time through as you often mention that stat with Hendricks being one of his worst. Not sure where to look that up as fangraphs doesn't have it. What I looked at on b-ref had .220/.274/.308 on 3rd PA though looking at the same for Hendricks does point out a .311/.360/.451 though that's only 254 PAs and with a .368 BABIP which strikes me as noise since BP puts normalization happening after 1126 PAs for BABIP.

Guess what I'm saying here is if most view Hendricks as a #4 or 5 best case it's hard for me to buy Gray is a top 5 pitcher because while Gray has obviously been a better pitcher, the difference in underlying numbers is fairly small. And while I'll openly admit Gray seems to have substantially better stuff both in eyeball test and pitch f/x to Hendricks, the results are what they are. On the contrary, if you want to argue Sale who has a similar k/9 rate to Randy Johnson who was the best k pitcher of all time then I can get on board with that.

 

[DanTown]

Not discounting all you have to say here but comparing HR/FB for a pitcher from Oakland and the Cell is a bit unfair. The cell is a top 5 HR park and Oakland is probably bottom 5 or 10 despite what Gray himself did and his 11.5% HR/FB rate in Oakland itself I believe is league average. If we're looking at Sale there, his home HR/FB is 15.1% and on the road it's 9.9% which is in line with his career numbers. So, even if Oakland isn't helping Gray all that much, the Cell is DEFINITELY hurting Sale. Additionally, while both defensives weren't great, Oakland's OF defense was 13th vs 29th for the Sox. I'd argue that's far more important than infield defense because bad OF defense lead to doubles/triples not singles. That also likely plays into the line drive rate some though honestly I'm not sure how much as I'm not 100% on how they calculate the difference. Suffice to say, there's likely at least a few shots into the gap that got labeled line drives which could have been caught by a better defense. BABIP is also probably a poor measure of weak contact in this case because the Sox obviously had a terrible defense. I understand the idea behind FIP being circular as you mention. Luckily, fangraphs has this covered with contact type. Sale had 21.0% soft, 53.7% medium 25.3% hard. Gray had 18.3%, 56.7%, 25.0%. So, you're talking about 3% or so more med/hard for Gray. That's probably on the edge of being noise/reliable.

Overall, if we're talking these two pitchers, I just feel Sale's style of pitching is more park/defensive independent. He pitched with the worst defense in the league behind him, in the AL, and in one of the top 5-10 hitters parks in the league. It doesn't get much worse than that and still put up a 3.41 ERA. Like I said before though, I'm not saying Gray is a bad pitcher. I just don't see him having another level. And while I can appreciate Gray's GB rate, it's a pretty weak correlation to "elite." Gray's 52.7% was ~1.5% better than Hendricks who as I mentioned before had better FIP components and who's contact type was 18.7%, 55.8%, 25.6% which is near identical to Gray. Like I've said before, I'll argue Hendricks is better than people want to admit but realistically the only difference between the two stat wise is Hendricks has ~4% higher line drive rate for his career, a higher HR/FB rate for Hendricks in 2015(though his 9.6 career is right in line with Gray) and the fact that Gray's pitched 20-30 more innings in the past 2 years. Gray might also be better the third time through as you often mention that stat with Hendricks being one of his worst. Not sure where to look that up as fangraphs doesn't have it. What I looked at on b-ref had .220/.274/.308 on 3rd PA though looking at the same for Hendricks does point out a .311/.360/.451 though that's only 254 PAs and with a .368 BABIP which strikes me as noise since BP puts normalization happening after 1126 PAs for BABIP.

Guess what I'm saying here is if most view Hendricks as a #4 or 5 best case it's hard for me to buy Gray is a top 5 pitcher because while Gray has obviously been a better pitcher, the difference in underlying numbers is fairly small. And while I'll openly admit Gray seems to have substantially better stuff both in eyeball test and pitch f/x to Hendricks, the results are what they are. On the contrary, if you want to argue Sale who has a similar k/9 rate to Randy Johnson who was the best k pitcher of all time then I can get on board with that.

You combine the rare combination of advanced stats and not looking at how they measure what you're arguing. For example you say

Not discounting all you have to say here but comparing HR/FB for a pitcher from Oakland and the Cell is a bit unfair.

Two things

1. Gray gave up significantly more HR at home (12 in 407 PA) than road (5 in 424 PA).
2. While Sale does have higher HR numbers (14/438 home vs 9/416), it's not as if the split is some massive split. And even if you do want to adjust the HR numbers, the line drive rate doesn't change the underlying point that Gray induces less "dangerous" contact. Also, let's remember Gray pitches against much better HR hitting teams in his division such as Houston, Seattle, LA Angles, and Texas where Sale gets the Twins, Tigers, Indians, and Royals for the majority of his starts. If the park is one factor, so is who you're playing.

Also, you can't call third time through the order "noise". Elite pitchers in this league are elite because they can make it through an order third/fourth time through because they have enough stuff to keep hitters off balance. Kyle Hendricks has two pitches he throws: sinker/fastball and changeups. The speeds on those pitches don't vary enough and since his secondary pitches aren't really threats to hitters to either be thrown or located well enough for hitters to have to think about them, Kyle doesn't survive seeing guys later in the game. Two pitch pitchers (which Kyle is) don't compare to three/four pitch pitchers like Sonny Gray.

Also, how much of a benefit is it to Kyle to know that he's only pitching his 18-22 batters? Gray and other elite pitchers have to worry more about making it through the order multiple times so they can't exert the same energy and they have to worry about setting up hitters; Kyle can simply throw his two pitches and he knows Joe's going to protect him. This is where all your Kyle Hendricks stats arguments fall on deaf ears because it doesn't take in account the drastic way Joe managed him versus how most other pitchers are handled. Bottom line, elite pitchers go through the order multiple times. Nothing in Kyle Hendricks game projects for him to do that well on a consistent basis. And that's ok, Kyle can be a perfect 4/5 who gives you 180ish innings. Perfectly acceptable on a team that has two (potentially three after FA) SP who give you 210+ innings.

 

[beckdawg]

So, here's a crazy idea. There's long been a connection between the Braves and Cubs over pitching and Soler. It seems from what's being reported presently that Altanta is more willing to move pieces than the cubs are willing to move Soler. Everything we've heard with regard to moving Soler is that they don't want to do it but realize it may have to happen in order to make a deal work. Bleacher Nation speculated that Soler might have more value. Additionally, it seems as though Teheran at this point has less value on him than Miller.

My question is if the cubs feel like Miller for Soler straight up isn't quite right.... why not Soler + stuff for Miller AND Teheran. Obviously the "+ stuff" part would matter but from Atlanta's perspective, they've already tanked this season. Additionally, they are loaded with young pitching prospects. Newcomb, toussaint, allard, jenkins, banuelos, fried, and simms all probably have starter potential and a number of them are #1-3 type starters and that's before you talk about the "+ stuff." Presumably, the only way this deal makes sense for the cubs is to include Hammel and honestly at $9 mil he's an interesting enough piece for Atlanta who can deal him at the deadline if he pitches well and if they are giving up Miller and Teheran they gotta get back a pitcher. While you could argue Hendricks being young makes more sense, he probably has less upside than any of those 6 prospects so Hammel makes sense and being a 1 year deal on him with a buy out, they free up money quickly.

As for what "+ stuff is," I think you can argue that Miller is roughly equivalent to 2014 deadline Shark though + 1.5 years of control. Teheran is a bit tougher to evaluate value wise because while young he's obviously coming off a down year. I'd say he's worth a fair bit more than Hammel was I'm just not sure exactly what. Reason I bring up Shark and Hammel is because frankly that's a sort of similar set up and that obviously netted Russell, McKinney and Straily. So at the very least you're talking that value. Soler and Russell value wise seem close and you could obviously just straight up include McKinney again if you so desired. I'd argue Hammel is better than Straily. I'm not sure Soler, Hammel, McKinney and say Candleario for Miller and Teheran is fair for Atlanta but it might be in the ball park. Soler, Hammel and Baez to me seems like too much on the cubs end.

Regardless, I think there's enough pieces that the cubs could make it happen in one form or another. And to me it's a worth while way of getting creative because you'd then have 3 of your starting 5 at 26 or younger with Hendricks and Miller has arbitration until 2019 when the CSN deal is up while Teheran is making $3.3 mil, $6.3, $8 mil, $11 mil, and $12 mil/$1 mil buyout. Teheran and Soler's money in 2016 offset while removing Hammel adds another $9 mil you can spend which probably puts you in the $35-45 mil range. If you chose to go after Heyward between $20-25 that leaves you some where between $10-15 mil to go after a CF and you still have trade pieces or you could play Coghlan in RF with a platoon partner until someone is ready in CF.

I'm not sure how realistic it is but I hope it's at least an idea the cubs FO has thought and is considering if indeed Miller for Soler is being discussed.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

With people, and maybe the Cubs, reticent to move guys maybe you don't. Maybe instead you free up cash by non-tendering Wood, Coghlan and Strop and trading Castro for a good pitching prospect. If you believe Rosenthal's $20 million number from yesterday that now gives you about $43 mil. You sign Samardzija and Heyward which probably costs around $42 mil. You might have already replaced Wood in the pen with Rex Brothers and you can likely trade some lesser prospects for a LH 4th OF. You keep all your flexibility player wise and could still trade for a pitcher at the deadline.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

With people, and maybe the Cubs, reticent to move guys maybe you don't. Maybe instead you free up cash by non-tendering Wood, Coghlan and Strop and trading Castro for a good pitching prospect. If you believe Rosenthal's $20 million number from yesterday that now gives you about $43 mil. You sign Samardzija and Heyward which probably costs around $42 mil. You might have already replaced Wood in the pen with Rex Brothers and you can likely trade some lesser prospects for a LH 4th OF. You keep all your flexibility player wise and could still trade for a pitcher at the deadline.

It's a lot of changes for a team that won 97 games and advanced to the NLCS with four starting rookies. Plus our bullpen would be weaker with out our most versatile RP in Wood -- plus Strop who gave us a lot of solid 8th innings.

Our defense would improve with Heyward in the OF and Baez taking over Castro's spot at 2B. But the SP we get for Castro better be a legit #3 so Shark can slide down where he belongs to #4.

It's a tough call. Do we tinker with our roster that much after all the success we had? Or we minimize our risk by signing Zorbrist/Shark, while moving Baez to CF? That way we keep our entire young nucleus.

Tough, tough decisions.

 

[beckdawg]

Also, you can't call third time through the order "noise".

Why? Any other statistic you talk about you include sample size or else it is unreliable. 254 or whatever it was PAs is not a robust sample size(it's roughly 84 innings put in a more common pitching metric or 15 starts). That's hardly enough to define for all eternity what a player is. And the fact that he has a .368 BABIP in that compared to a career .287 overall should make you question it. It's entirely possible that you're right and he's just shit the third time through the line up. It's also entirely possible that he eventually normalizes over 1200 or so PAs that it will drop substantially. Regardless of what you think I literally provided you a link to a study that suggested it took around 1200 PAs for BABIP to normalize. So, if you're unwilling to admit that it's a possibility that stat is inaccurate then you're clearly biased. At the very least, every time you've mentioned that particular stat I've acknowledged that it's a possibility your thinking is right. I just disagreed it was something set in stone.

Regardless you're missing the entire point of this discussion. You seem to be trying to make this a case of me saying Hendricks is as good as Gray which I went well out of my way to avoid. My point is that if Gray is a top 5 pitchers and Hendricks is a decent #4/5 there should be a hell of a lot of difference between the two's underlying numbers because any system you want to use a top 5 player should be multiple standard deviations better than someone who's in the 100-150 range. A 3/4 pitch pitcher should be able to K more guys than a 2 pitch pitcher who's 2 pitches don't include a dominating fastball(eg a closer/dominating RP). He should induce more soft contact not have nearly identical soft/medium/hard contact rates. He should walk fewer batters....etc.

Long story short, is Gray a better pitcher than Hendricks, absolutely with 0 question. But sharing so many statistical similarities with Hendricks is hardly a vote in favor of him being a top 5 pitcher. At least with someone like Sale you can say he's 2-3 k/9 higher than Hendricks. Additionally, the stats would suggest there's not much room for growth in Gray. He was worth 3.8 fWAR last season with a .255 BABIP. I don't care who you are, you're not going to pitch better than a .255 BABIP reliably over a long period of time even if Gray is the type of pitcher who pitches better than the league average .300 BABIP regularly. Pedro Martinez had a 76% strand rate on his career as one of the 10 or so best pitchers ever. Gray this season was 76.8%. His 2.55 bb/9 rate was the best Gray has had at any point in his professional career. Gray had a 7.3 k/9 in the minors and has a 7.7 k/9 in the majors.

Whatever Gray is, he's basically topped out. If you want to argue he can throw together a 4.5ish fWAR season fine I'll concede that point. But I see 0 way he ever has the 2.17 ERA Sale had in 2014 and I think Sale can repeat that and possibly better it before all is said and done assuming he stays healthy.

 

[beckdawg]

Houston's listening on Jake Marisnick. He's only 24 years old and plays good defense in CF but has hit .232/.273/.342 over 727 PAs. Don't really see him as much of an option. Looks like more of a 4th OF thus far in his career and his 27.4% k rate with a 4.4% bb rate is positively no bueno.

Also

Top free agent outfielder Jason Heyward looks more like a “secondary option” for the Cubs, Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets. In other words, Chicago is pursuing other opportunities, but could pivot to chase Heyward if those other possibilities don’t come to fruition.

Not really sure on that wording. Seems like more of a "if we can get Price" type statement other wise Heyward. Suppose it could also be a "if we can get Fowler/Span at <x>"

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It's a lot of changes for a team that won 97 games and advanced to the NLCS with four starting rookies. Plus our bullpen would be weaker with out our most versatile RP in Wood -- plus Strop who gave us a lot of solid 8th innings.

Our defense would improve with Heyward in the OF and Baez taking over Castro's spot at 2B. But the SP we get for Castro better be a legit #3 so Shark can slide down where he belongs to #4.

It's a tough call. Do we tinker with our roster that much after all the success we had? Or we minimize our risk by signing Zorbrist/Shark, while moving Baez to CF? That way we keep our entire young nucleus.

Tough, tough decisions.

Letting Wood go is a risk but Brothers may mitigate it. the Cubs won 97 games and exceeded there Pythagorean projection by 7 games. With a couple of improvements they might get their projection to 92 games in 2016, what if luck goes against them and they got 4 or 5 games under that? I also believe one of the rookies is going to fall back in 2016 be someone always does. Too many things have gone right. What are the odds that your 4 top prospects to start 2015 all succeeded wildly to varying degrees? Baseball is going to baseball. I know Heyward makes you better and I think Shark is a true 3 that can sometimes pitch like a 2. Hammel is a 4 and now gets to play that role. Hendricks is a #4 and gets to be your #5. That's one of the best rotations in the NL before you make a trade.

 

[DanTown]

Why? Any other statistic you talk about you include sample size or else it is unreliable. 254 or whatever it was PAs is not a robust sample size(it's roughly 84 innings put in a more common pitching metric or 15 starts). That's hardly enough to define for all eternity what a player is. And the fact that he has a .368 BABIP in that compared to a career .287 overall should make you question it. It's entirely possible that you're right and he's just shit the third time through the line up. It's also entirely possible that he eventually normalizes over 1200 or so PAs that it will drop substantially. Regardless of what you think I literally provided you a link to a study that suggested it took around 1200 PAs for BABIP to normalize. So, if you're unwilling to admit that it's a possibility that stat is inaccurate then you're clearly biased. At the very least, every time you've mentioned that particular stat I've acknowledged that it's a possibility your thinking is right. I just disagreed it was something set in stone.

Regardless you're missing the entire point of this discussion. You seem to be trying to make this a case of me saying Hendricks is as good as Gray which I went well out of my way to avoid. My point is that if Gray is a top 5 pitchers and Hendricks is a decent #4/5 there should be a hell of a lot of difference between the two's underlying numbers because any system you want to use a top 5 player should be multiple standard deviations better than someone who's in the 100-150 range. A 3/4 pitch pitcher should be able to K more guys than a 2 pitch pitcher who's 2 pitches don't include a dominating fastball(eg a closer/dominating RP). He should induce more soft contact not have nearly identical soft/medium/hard contact rates. He should walk fewer batters....etc.

Long story short, is Gray a better pitcher than Hendricks, absolutely with 0 question. But sharing so many statistical similarities with Hendricks is hardly a vote in favor of him being a top 5 pitcher. At least with someone like Sale you can say he's 2-3 k/9 higher than Hendricks. Additionally, the stats would suggest there's not much room for growth in Gray. He was worth 3.8 fWAR last season with a .255 BABIP. I don't care who you are, you're not going to pitch better than a .255 BABIP reliably over a long period of time even if Gray is the type of pitcher who pitches better than the league average .300 BABIP regularly. Pedro Martinez had a 76% strand rate on his career as one of the 10 or so best pitchers ever. Gray this season was 76.8%. His 2.55 bb/9 rate was the best Gray has had at any point in his professional career. Gray had a 7.3 k/9 in the minors and has a 7.7 k/9 in the majors.

Whatever Gray is, he's basically topped out. If you want to argue he can throw together a 4.5ish fWAR season fine I'll concede that point. But I see 0 way he ever has the 2.17 ERA Sale had in 2014 and I think Sale can repeat that and possibly better it before all is said and done assuming he stays healthy.

Your argument is basically "we'll never get enough sample to measure BABIP so third time through the order isn't a fair stat since it can never normalize". That's frankly, bullshit. While I'm not going to say that BABIP isn't of course a fluky stat that is due to random variance, if a guy has a slash line that shows he gives up substantially more XBH (his XBH goes from 6.3% to 12.0%) with a drop in his SO Rate (24.0% first two times through vs 18.0% third time through and beyond) as he goes through the order for the third time, I can probably assume that going through the order for the third time drastically impacts this pitcher. Seeing as Joe Maddon basically agrees with this (by the end of the year, Kyle was on an incredibly limited leash to go third time through), I don't see the argument.

I mean to suggest his third time through struggles are just essentially cluster luck is ludicrous to the belief of third time through penalties. We know they exist. They appear. You try and question it and call it bad luck.

And by the way, you missed my entire point on Hendricks: you cannot compare his numbers to Gray because of the way Hendricks was used. Hendricks was used in a way that frankly, would make any pitcher look exceptionally good
- He was limited going through the order more than twice
- He pitched limited pitches thus could exert more energy into his pitches

By the first glance, you're right, Hendricks stats compare with many elite pitchers. But Kyle throwing 180 innings over 32 starts versus Gray throwing 208 in the same number of starts is a damning stat.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Price to the Red Sox 7/$217 million. No thank you.

 

[chibears55]

Price to the Red Sox 7/$217 million. No thank you.

As much as i wanted Price, they can have him at 31 per even with an opt out after 3 yrs..
Though not sure why Price would opt out and walk away from 124 mil over last 4 yrs at that age. ..

2 TOR type starters gone , 2 to go

Greinke most likely going to also get 30+ now over 7 yrs
So, that leaves Cueto or what it probably will end up being ..
a return of Samardzija

 

[DanTown]

Not a terrible deal I assume for Boston. The only problem they have is if Price opts in after three years instead of the opt out they think he's going to do.

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

With people, and maybe the Cubs, reticent to move guys maybe you don't. Maybe instead you free up cash by non-tendering Wood, Coghlan and Strop and trading Castro for a good pitching prospect. If you believe Rosenthal's $20 million number from yesterday that now gives you about $43 mil. You sign Samardzija and Heyward which probably costs around $42 mil. You might have already replaced Wood in the pen with Rex Brothers and you can likely trade some lesser prospects for a LH 4th OF. You keep all your flexibility player wise and could still trade for a pitcher at the deadline.

Can't stand Smardzdija, too inconsistent. He can eat up innings but .:dunno: He would be an improvement as a #3 doe.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Can't stand Smardzdija, too inconsistent. He can eat up innings but .:dunno: He would be an improvement as a #3 doe.

He's too inconsistent for a TOR as a #3 that works in your favor. He's good enough to be there and sometimes pitches better than an MOR. At something like 5/$80-$85 million I sign him yesterday. Of course now there's talk that Atlanta really, really likes Soler and might trade both Miller and Teheran in a trade for him. Maybe then you sign Lackey, Hendricks to the pen and shed Hammel's salary in order to sign Heyward.