JimJohnson
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Doesn't look like you're going to get either.
I guess Cubs brass is waiting for the beast known as Lackey. yayyyyyyyyyyyyy
Doesn't look like you're going to get either.
I guess Cubs brass is waiting for the beast known as Lackey. yayyyyyyyyyyyyy
Boobaby1
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I think it would be a done deal if it were the Cubs, and furthermore, I don't think the Cubs are going to exceed what they offered a year and a half ago, especially by that much.
Looks as if the Cubs are targeting Leake, Lackey, or Kazmir, and I'd take the latter two if I had my choice given the contract lengths for a MOR pitcher.
Looks as if the Cubs are targeting Leake, Lackey, or Kazmir, and I'd take the latter two if I had my choice given the contract lengths for a MOR pitcher.
CSF77
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Today is the non-tender deadline and it sometimes means we'll see a trade or two as teams try to mix and match roster fits with other teams. They're also deciding whether a player's expected arbitration increase still makes them good value.
Given some of the salaries we see in free agency even for mid-level players, it seems likely the Cubs will hang on to what is a pretty strong list of players, according to Jesse Rogers.
“When you play well, you play well because of good players who went out and performed well on the field so they make more money in arbitration, and you’re thrilled about that,” President Theo Epstein said early in the offseason. “It means they contributed to a winning season, and they deserve raises.”
It's the price of success. That does not mean the Cubs won't try to move some players in a deal in search for a similar player who could be a better fit on the roster, but they are certainly too valuable to simply non-tender.
The Cubs have 9 such players. One of those players, RP Rex Brothers, has already re-signed for $1.42M, according to Jon Heyman.
The others are...
Jake Arrieta
Hector Rondon
Chris Coghlan
Pedro Strop
Justin Grimm
Travis Wood
Clayton Richard
Ryan Cook
As far as non-tender eligibles from other teams that may interest the Cubs, I have mentioned Ben Revere as a potential stopgap solution in CF. That he provides speed, a LH contact bat, some OBP, and a one year commitment would appeal to the Cubs, even if he isn't a great defender. He also doesn't fit the Cubs typical profile as a hitter.
Jeff Samardzija price rising
According to his representatives via Jayson Stark, Jeff Samardzija has already received a $100M offer, which is more than many of us expected. We thought Samardzija would get offers similar to the 5 year/$85M deal he reportedly turned down during extension talks, so it appears his decision to test the market will pay off -- though we don't know the length or structure of that $100M offer.
If that is the case, it may get to the point where the Cubs no longer consider the big RHP good value, especially considering they didn't appear to show much interest in another pitcher, more successful pitcher they like, Jordan Zimmermann, for a similar amount ($110M).
If the Cubs take a pass on Samardzija, then that may leave their FA options at John Lackey and Mike Leake. It may also increase the possibility of a trade for a younger cost-controlled pitcher.
Paying for elite talent like David Price can put a burden on your payroll long term, but he will certain provide value early. Signing mid-level talent can be as risky if the price starts to exceed good value. The Red Sox discovered that last year when they made mid-level acquisitions like Wade Miley and Rick Porcello, then saw both perform far below expectations.
Lackey may make the most sense now because of the recent track record, experience, and the expected shorter length of the deal, though he presents a risk at age 37. Leake may also benefit from the rising prices and while he is young and healthy compared to most of the free agent class, he is a pitcher that depends heavily on his defense, though his groundball tendencies may be a good fit with the Cubs solid infield defense. At this point I am feeling like John Lackey plus a trade for a younger arm may end up being the route the Cubs choose, but that is purely my own speculation.
Given some of the salaries we see in free agency even for mid-level players, it seems likely the Cubs will hang on to what is a pretty strong list of players, according to Jesse Rogers.
“When you play well, you play well because of good players who went out and performed well on the field so they make more money in arbitration, and you’re thrilled about that,” President Theo Epstein said early in the offseason. “It means they contributed to a winning season, and they deserve raises.”
It's the price of success. That does not mean the Cubs won't try to move some players in a deal in search for a similar player who could be a better fit on the roster, but they are certainly too valuable to simply non-tender.
The Cubs have 9 such players. One of those players, RP Rex Brothers, has already re-signed for $1.42M, according to Jon Heyman.
The others are...
Jake Arrieta
Hector Rondon
Chris Coghlan
Pedro Strop
Justin Grimm
Travis Wood
Clayton Richard
Ryan Cook
As far as non-tender eligibles from other teams that may interest the Cubs, I have mentioned Ben Revere as a potential stopgap solution in CF. That he provides speed, a LH contact bat, some OBP, and a one year commitment would appeal to the Cubs, even if he isn't a great defender. He also doesn't fit the Cubs typical profile as a hitter.
Jeff Samardzija price rising
According to his representatives via Jayson Stark, Jeff Samardzija has already received a $100M offer, which is more than many of us expected. We thought Samardzija would get offers similar to the 5 year/$85M deal he reportedly turned down during extension talks, so it appears his decision to test the market will pay off -- though we don't know the length or structure of that $100M offer.
If that is the case, it may get to the point where the Cubs no longer consider the big RHP good value, especially considering they didn't appear to show much interest in another pitcher, more successful pitcher they like, Jordan Zimmermann, for a similar amount ($110M).
If the Cubs take a pass on Samardzija, then that may leave their FA options at John Lackey and Mike Leake. It may also increase the possibility of a trade for a younger cost-controlled pitcher.
Paying for elite talent like David Price can put a burden on your payroll long term, but he will certain provide value early. Signing mid-level talent can be as risky if the price starts to exceed good value. The Red Sox discovered that last year when they made mid-level acquisitions like Wade Miley and Rick Porcello, then saw both perform far below expectations.
Lackey may make the most sense now because of the recent track record, experience, and the expected shorter length of the deal, though he presents a risk at age 37. Leake may also benefit from the rising prices and while he is young and healthy compared to most of the free agent class, he is a pitcher that depends heavily on his defense, though his groundball tendencies may be a good fit with the Cubs solid infield defense. At this point I am feeling like John Lackey plus a trade for a younger arm may end up being the route the Cubs choose, but that is purely my own speculation.
beckdawg
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Wasn't suggesting it was the cubs who offered him $100 mil. Basically was saying while it's reported a team has offered him $100 mil what matters is the yearly amount. For the sake of argument, let's say it is $100 mil over 6 years or something in that range. If the team offering that is some team going no where like say the dbacks that isn't an immediate sign. Additionally, while the contract could total $100 mil, it's entirely possible it's like 5 years at <x> with a 6th option year at <y> or buy out. Ultimately, if you're(using the royal you're not you specifically) wanting the cubs to sign shark what matter is that AAV because if it's 6/100 mil that's around $17 mil/season. The cubs with a chance to actually win might be a better sign at say 5/$85. Or conversely, you could also look at a shorter deal but more annually...etc.
On the other hand, if the deal being offered is $100 mil over 5 years then he'd be pretty fucking crazy not to sign that regardless of the situation because that's well above what arguably should be his market value. I mean that's essentially Zimmermann money for a guy coming off a horrible year and who's older.
CSF77
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If it was 5/100 he would've signed instead of his agent posturing. I'll bet it is a 6/100 which is 16.6 per year. To me that is believable as he has low miles on his arm and 16-17 is his true value
TL1961
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Must be a 15 year deal.
beckdawg
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Not entirely sure I understand this one...
Not that they really matter(cook, leathersich) but they literally just picked them up a week or two ago. Only thing I can think of is they were picked up as contingency plans for Brothers/someone and are no longer needed.
Not that they really matter(cook, leathersich) but they literally just picked them up a week or two ago. Only thing I can think of is they were picked up as contingency plans for Brothers/someone and are no longer needed.
beckdawg
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Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 50s50 seconds ago
Potentially great arm out there to be had: Marlins have non-tendered Henderson Alvarez, source tells Yahoo Sports.
4 retweets 0 likes
Potentially great arm out there to be had: Marlins have non-tendered Henderson Alvarez, source tells Yahoo Sports.
4 retweets 0 likes
CSF77
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They paid him 1 mil per start last year. I would look at the meds before even going there.
CSF77
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Who knows. Could have been all about the $$$. Richard took less and can spot start.
CSF77
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http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...r-jason-heyward-and-the-pipe-dream-offseason/
here are rumors that the Cubs have limited resources. That may or may not be true -- and Dan had some evidence to the contrary the other day.
Now the Cubs were hesitant to invest heavily in a 2nd 30 year old plus arm...but what about a 26 year old LH hitting outfielder who shores up their need for contact hitting and outfield defense? There is certainly less risk in a position player over a pitcher -- even more so when we talk about an outfielder still early on in his prime years. Heyward should carry strong value for at least the next half dozen years.
The trouble is this: The Cubs really need a strong pitcher who can fit in the middle of their rotation. Is it the right move to spend their resources on a hitter?
Assuming they have the money to spend....yes. That is, I think you can make this work but it is going to take a lot of imagination, work, and luck.
Oh, and money.
Jeff Samardzija may be on his way to getting priced out of the Cubs range. Mike Leake may see his price go up as well. The loser of the Greinke sweepstakes could hone in one of them. The Cardinals are also looking to upgrade their staff. So is Arizona. There just aren't enough quality starting pitchers to go around for everyone.
And here is another thing: I think if you are going to invest a lot of money, there is an argument to be made that you go all in for elite players who will make a difference. If you are going to spend, spend for rare commodities that cannot easily be approximated with value players. The game has become more pitching-heavy and the Cubs have shown they can build strong staffs from value signings and shrewd trades. Finding an in-prime elite defender with the type of hitting skills the Cubs lack isn't quite so easy.
No matter what you think the Cubs budget is this offseason, signing Heyward would almost certainly be their lone big free agency signing. The Cubs would have to fill the rest of their needs via trade and/or budget FA signings.
The Braves are known to covet Jorge Soler. They have two young, cost-controlled pitchers to offer in Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller, with Miller widely considered to have the greater upside, though he does come with some risks. On the other hand, Soler comes with his own risks and it is the only reason he would even be semi-available while players like Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber are not. Similarly, Miller would not be available if there were no risk involved. So the Cubs and Braves could make this deal wherein the Braves get the better upside and the Cubs get a commodity which is becoming increasingly expensive on the open market -- a mid-rotation arm, with the bonus that Miller still has cost control and some upside left.
Perhaps that is not ideal, but it may just be the best use resources for the Cubs. It just may be better to take the financial risk on an in-prime position player and the risk of trading a young position player for on an in-prime pitcher with upside left.
The need for Miller or a similar pitcher is obvious, but replacing Soler in the lineup is less so. The only Cubs player who has that kind of RH power potential to support Kris Bryant is Javier Baez. Baez, however, is not considered as good an all-around hitter. Addison Russell is another player some believe will grow into some power as he matures as a hitter, though not the kind of power Soler has. Meanwhile, Starlin Castro showed he can still be one of the best pure hitters on the team, but also doesn't have the power to replace the hole left by Soler. I think between the 3 players, however, the Cubs should be able to at least mitigate the loss of Soler's RH bat.
The next issue becomes who plays CF. With so much offense in Heyward, Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, and Russell, the Cubs may not need to have a big offensive player in CF. Albert Almora may make sense in the long run. Between Almora in CF and Heyward in RF, the Cubs would have the makings of 2/3 of an elite OF. If Schwarber can at least be adequate in LF, the Cubs will be fine defensively. Almora also becomes a better fit for a team that that would become increasingly LH (Rizzo, Schwarber, Heyward, Montero)
Almora, however, won't be ready to start 2016 and there is a chance he may not be ready to be a starter at all given his inconsistent performance in the minors. At the very least, the Cubs will need to seek a stopgap solution, preferably one who plays good defense. They could look also at options like Denard Span (if he is willing to go on a short term deal and can still play defense), or inexpensive, cost-controlled options like Jackie Bradley, Jr. (if the trade acquisition cost makes sense) or the recently made available Jake Marisnick. I've also mentioned Ben Revere, a potential non-tender, though unlike the others, he lacks the ideal defensive profile.
If the Cubs are to look ahead, they should also consider that this may be Miguel Montero's last year as a starting catcher and the most obvious replacement is Willson Contreras, though the Cubs still have faith that Schwarber might stick at catcher. If Contreras is the catcher, then the Cubs have the potential to field a strong, balanced, defensive lineup.
Here is one possibility for mid to late 2016 and beyond...
C: Contreras (R)
1B: Rizzo (L)
2B: Castro or Baez (R)
SS: Russell (R)
3B: Bryant (R)
LF: Schwarber (L)
CF: Almora (R) and/or Bradley (L)
RF: Heyward (L)
This is a lineup that has some R/L balance and some power mixed in with contact hitters. It would have strong defense up the middle and a potentially above average defensive player at every position except LF. The Cubs could also move Schwarber behind the plate, Bryant to the OF, Baez to 3B to give them some flexibility.
Depending on whom they trade, the Cubs would also still have some flexibility /depth in the minors with Billy McKinney (corner OF), Ian Happ (2B, CF, corner OF), and Gleyber Torres (2B, SS, 3B). Jeimer Candelario (1B, 3B), Mark Zagunis (OF), Donnie Dewees (OF) could also provide depth/potential replacements down the road.
If the Cubs could extend Jake Arrieta (which may be tougher now we see what Greinke will get in his age 32 season), they would have a strong top 3 in Arrieta, Lester, and Miller (or similar pitcher) for at least the next 3 years.
It's probably the closest the Cubs can get to have their cake and eating it too...that is, adding a big impact player while still maintaining some flexibility and depth on their roster (as well as at the upper level of the minors) for the foreseeable future. If you're still looking for a big splash this offseason, this is how it would probably look. You'd almost have to sign Heyward and trade Soler for a cost-controlled SP to make it work.
That's your ceiling offseason. Just understand that it's a long shot to happen.
here are rumors that the Cubs have limited resources. That may or may not be true -- and Dan had some evidence to the contrary the other day.
Now the Cubs were hesitant to invest heavily in a 2nd 30 year old plus arm...but what about a 26 year old LH hitting outfielder who shores up their need for contact hitting and outfield defense? There is certainly less risk in a position player over a pitcher -- even more so when we talk about an outfielder still early on in his prime years. Heyward should carry strong value for at least the next half dozen years.
The trouble is this: The Cubs really need a strong pitcher who can fit in the middle of their rotation. Is it the right move to spend their resources on a hitter?
Assuming they have the money to spend....yes. That is, I think you can make this work but it is going to take a lot of imagination, work, and luck.
Oh, and money.
Jeff Samardzija may be on his way to getting priced out of the Cubs range. Mike Leake may see his price go up as well. The loser of the Greinke sweepstakes could hone in one of them. The Cardinals are also looking to upgrade their staff. So is Arizona. There just aren't enough quality starting pitchers to go around for everyone.
And here is another thing: I think if you are going to invest a lot of money, there is an argument to be made that you go all in for elite players who will make a difference. If you are going to spend, spend for rare commodities that cannot easily be approximated with value players. The game has become more pitching-heavy and the Cubs have shown they can build strong staffs from value signings and shrewd trades. Finding an in-prime elite defender with the type of hitting skills the Cubs lack isn't quite so easy.
No matter what you think the Cubs budget is this offseason, signing Heyward would almost certainly be their lone big free agency signing. The Cubs would have to fill the rest of their needs via trade and/or budget FA signings.
The Braves are known to covet Jorge Soler. They have two young, cost-controlled pitchers to offer in Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller, with Miller widely considered to have the greater upside, though he does come with some risks. On the other hand, Soler comes with his own risks and it is the only reason he would even be semi-available while players like Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber are not. Similarly, Miller would not be available if there were no risk involved. So the Cubs and Braves could make this deal wherein the Braves get the better upside and the Cubs get a commodity which is becoming increasingly expensive on the open market -- a mid-rotation arm, with the bonus that Miller still has cost control and some upside left.
Perhaps that is not ideal, but it may just be the best use resources for the Cubs. It just may be better to take the financial risk on an in-prime position player and the risk of trading a young position player for on an in-prime pitcher with upside left.
The need for Miller or a similar pitcher is obvious, but replacing Soler in the lineup is less so. The only Cubs player who has that kind of RH power potential to support Kris Bryant is Javier Baez. Baez, however, is not considered as good an all-around hitter. Addison Russell is another player some believe will grow into some power as he matures as a hitter, though not the kind of power Soler has. Meanwhile, Starlin Castro showed he can still be one of the best pure hitters on the team, but also doesn't have the power to replace the hole left by Soler. I think between the 3 players, however, the Cubs should be able to at least mitigate the loss of Soler's RH bat.
The next issue becomes who plays CF. With so much offense in Heyward, Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, and Russell, the Cubs may not need to have a big offensive player in CF. Albert Almora may make sense in the long run. Between Almora in CF and Heyward in RF, the Cubs would have the makings of 2/3 of an elite OF. If Schwarber can at least be adequate in LF, the Cubs will be fine defensively. Almora also becomes a better fit for a team that that would become increasingly LH (Rizzo, Schwarber, Heyward, Montero)
Almora, however, won't be ready to start 2016 and there is a chance he may not be ready to be a starter at all given his inconsistent performance in the minors. At the very least, the Cubs will need to seek a stopgap solution, preferably one who plays good defense. They could look also at options like Denard Span (if he is willing to go on a short term deal and can still play defense), or inexpensive, cost-controlled options like Jackie Bradley, Jr. (if the trade acquisition cost makes sense) or the recently made available Jake Marisnick. I've also mentioned Ben Revere, a potential non-tender, though unlike the others, he lacks the ideal defensive profile.
If the Cubs are to look ahead, they should also consider that this may be Miguel Montero's last year as a starting catcher and the most obvious replacement is Willson Contreras, though the Cubs still have faith that Schwarber might stick at catcher. If Contreras is the catcher, then the Cubs have the potential to field a strong, balanced, defensive lineup.
Here is one possibility for mid to late 2016 and beyond...
C: Contreras (R)
1B: Rizzo (L)
2B: Castro or Baez (R)
SS: Russell (R)
3B: Bryant (R)
LF: Schwarber (L)
CF: Almora (R) and/or Bradley (L)
RF: Heyward (L)
This is a lineup that has some R/L balance and some power mixed in with contact hitters. It would have strong defense up the middle and a potentially above average defensive player at every position except LF. The Cubs could also move Schwarber behind the plate, Bryant to the OF, Baez to 3B to give them some flexibility.
Depending on whom they trade, the Cubs would also still have some flexibility /depth in the minors with Billy McKinney (corner OF), Ian Happ (2B, CF, corner OF), and Gleyber Torres (2B, SS, 3B). Jeimer Candelario (1B, 3B), Mark Zagunis (OF), Donnie Dewees (OF) could also provide depth/potential replacements down the road.
If the Cubs could extend Jake Arrieta (which may be tougher now we see what Greinke will get in his age 32 season), they would have a strong top 3 in Arrieta, Lester, and Miller (or similar pitcher) for at least the next 3 years.
It's probably the closest the Cubs can get to have their cake and eating it too...that is, adding a big impact player while still maintaining some flexibility and depth on their roster (as well as at the upper level of the minors) for the foreseeable future. If you're still looking for a big splash this offseason, this is how it would probably look. You'd almost have to sign Heyward and trade Soler for a cost-controlled SP to make it work.
That's your ceiling offseason. Just understand that it's a long shot to happen.
CSF77
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So right now in the pen they have Wood, Brothers, Richard (3 lefties) Rondon, Strop, Grimm. (7-9 regular guys). I'm counting 6 in the pen. Sounds like Ramirez and Edwards are fighting for a spot. Or they start Edwards at AAA. now him and Johnson starting a phone call away changes the depth balance dramatically if they choose to do that.
ChiSoxCity
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I'll go ahead and call it now... the Cubs will win 90+ and get eliminated by the Mets again in 2016.
Not adding an elite arm this offseason will cost them a championship, possibly two within the next five years.
Not adding an elite arm this offseason will cost them a championship, possibly two within the next five years.
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My favorite teams
so that's what being a white sux fan is like huh?? such a garbage team that you have to spend your time trolling the cubs message boards, hoping that the cubs win as few titles over the next ten years as possible?
DanTown
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The problem I finally realized with Jeff is that he simply doesn't solve a problem. The Cubs don't need to find a starting pitcher who is going to be solid and reliable; they need a #3 who is capable of winning a game 3 in the playoffs of a 1-1 series. And to me, Jeff Samardzija simply has never been good enough in the MLB for me to hope he gets better. The last four years of Jeff:
FIP
3.55
3.77
3.20
4.23
fWAR
2.7
2.7
4.1
2.7
That's not the kind of prime years of a guy I want to invest a ton of money in as he ages. For as much as we don't know about Jeff's ability to age because it's a lot lower innings than most, even if he holds off aging, the Cubs simply aren't really addressing a problem. When he was young and had his absolute best stuff, he cracked being a 3 WAR guy once. If the Cubs sign him and he starts as the 2-3 WAR guy he is and ages into the 1-2 WAR range, what problem does he solve? It's literally trying to fix a problem with something cheap; it may solve a problem for a little while but it probably won't last and then you're just going right back into FA to find. I don't see any way Jeff S is a better value than David Price would have been. Price would cost a whole lot of money but he at least gives you a few years of being a 5-6 WAR pitcher who probably fades into the 2-4 WAR range. I'm going to say "years 5-7 might be rough but maybe I'll develop a low cost/high value pitcher to off-set that" and "at least I'm getting a high WAR guy for years 1-3". At no point, even when you're paying him a ton of money, are you likely going to say to yourself "the Cubs need a better starter than David Price". He's expensive, but he solves a problem both now and probably in four years.
And then you try and talk yourselves into other #3 starters via trade and I just don't see them solving issues either
- Shelby Miller lacks the ability to consistently SO batters (7.5/9) or induce ground balls (47.7%). While W-L is obviously a stupid stat, the thing about Miller is that he's never shown great ability (three years, career high fWAR is 3.4) and he's likely going to cost a player with a lot of value/potential (Soler).
- Teheran has the similar problem of being a young guy with three not great years who maybe is about to peak but at the cost you're paying in a trade, you really HAVE to get that peak. Three years of meh numbers (combined fWAR of 6.8 over three years; FIP never lower than 3.7) means he could just be a middle of the rotation arm.
- While both Salazar and Carrasco would be great to get in Cleveland, they're also trying to win now so their desire to trade a SP is low and they'd need a lot to do it.
The only guys who I feel solve the issue of third starter on this team AND who would be worth an investment in FA OR worth giving up guys in the farm system are
- Johnny Cueto
- Zack Grienke
- David Price
- Tyson Ross
That's it. Price is gone and Grienke looks to be deciding between two west coast teams, leaving you just Cueto or Ross who really changes things for the Cubs. If it was me, I'd give the Padres call and offer something around Baez, Candelario, Cease/Underwood, and Almora for Ross and non top top prospect(s). Someone is going to say that's a lot for the Cubs to give up and I agree, it's a lot to give up. Baez is MLB ready, Almora and Candelario are potential everyday guys in a few years, and obviously who knows with the pitchers. But the value of this deal is two fold
1. You get Ross at two years before his FA pay day and even if he leaves in two years, you'd get compensation back
2. The guys the Cubs gave up are all blocked by better players (Almora by Soler; Candelario by Bryant; Baez by Russell)
I know people will say no to this kind of deal but this is the kind of deal a team with a ton of prospects has to make. The Cubs don't have a home for all their guys and if they move some of them for a Tyson Ross level pitcher, that's just as good as them being decent players.
That type of off-season solves a lot of risk for Cubs fans. Ross is a top 15-20 pitcher; Heyward might be one of the safest FA bets in a while (especially with a shorter deal), and Zobrist is prime to bounce back defensively when he's healthy and be the 3-4 WAR guy his bat projects to be.
FIP
3.55
3.77
3.20
4.23
fWAR
2.7
2.7
4.1
2.7
That's not the kind of prime years of a guy I want to invest a ton of money in as he ages. For as much as we don't know about Jeff's ability to age because it's a lot lower innings than most, even if he holds off aging, the Cubs simply aren't really addressing a problem. When he was young and had his absolute best stuff, he cracked being a 3 WAR guy once. If the Cubs sign him and he starts as the 2-3 WAR guy he is and ages into the 1-2 WAR range, what problem does he solve? It's literally trying to fix a problem with something cheap; it may solve a problem for a little while but it probably won't last and then you're just going right back into FA to find. I don't see any way Jeff S is a better value than David Price would have been. Price would cost a whole lot of money but he at least gives you a few years of being a 5-6 WAR pitcher who probably fades into the 2-4 WAR range. I'm going to say "years 5-7 might be rough but maybe I'll develop a low cost/high value pitcher to off-set that" and "at least I'm getting a high WAR guy for years 1-3". At no point, even when you're paying him a ton of money, are you likely going to say to yourself "the Cubs need a better starter than David Price". He's expensive, but he solves a problem both now and probably in four years.
And then you try and talk yourselves into other #3 starters via trade and I just don't see them solving issues either
- Shelby Miller lacks the ability to consistently SO batters (7.5/9) or induce ground balls (47.7%). While W-L is obviously a stupid stat, the thing about Miller is that he's never shown great ability (three years, career high fWAR is 3.4) and he's likely going to cost a player with a lot of value/potential (Soler).
- Teheran has the similar problem of being a young guy with three not great years who maybe is about to peak but at the cost you're paying in a trade, you really HAVE to get that peak. Three years of meh numbers (combined fWAR of 6.8 over three years; FIP never lower than 3.7) means he could just be a middle of the rotation arm.
- While both Salazar and Carrasco would be great to get in Cleveland, they're also trying to win now so their desire to trade a SP is low and they'd need a lot to do it.
The only guys who I feel solve the issue of third starter on this team AND who would be worth an investment in FA OR worth giving up guys in the farm system are
- Johnny Cueto
- Zack Grienke
- David Price
- Tyson Ross
That's it. Price is gone and Grienke looks to be deciding between two west coast teams, leaving you just Cueto or Ross who really changes things for the Cubs. If it was me, I'd give the Padres call and offer something around Baez, Candelario, Cease/Underwood, and Almora for Ross and non top top prospect(s). Someone is going to say that's a lot for the Cubs to give up and I agree, it's a lot to give up. Baez is MLB ready, Almora and Candelario are potential everyday guys in a few years, and obviously who knows with the pitchers. But the value of this deal is two fold
1. You get Ross at two years before his FA pay day and even if he leaves in two years, you'd get compensation back
2. The guys the Cubs gave up are all blocked by better players (Almora by Soler; Candelario by Bryant; Baez by Russell)
I know people will say no to this kind of deal but this is the kind of deal a team with a ton of prospects has to make. The Cubs don't have a home for all their guys and if they move some of them for a Tyson Ross level pitcher, that's just as good as them being decent players.
That type of off-season solves a lot of risk for Cubs fans. Ross is a top 15-20 pitcher; Heyward might be one of the safest FA bets in a while (especially with a shorter deal), and Zobrist is prime to bounce back defensively when he's healthy and be the 3-4 WAR guy his bat projects to be.
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Shark played for Notre Dame in the big spotlight. He never got the opportunity in the post season. When he is on, he is as dominant a pitcher you will see. To say he couldn't win a game 3 is ridiculous. Shit, Jeff Weaver won the Cards a series. He is an upgrade over Hammel and Hendricks. He also did his best work with Bosio. Boise was stated he would love for Shark to be back here. At the end of the day, if the money makes sense the Cubs will bring him back. All this talk about what he will is just bullshit. He is a competitor. He has low mileage on his arm and could throw a no hitter any game. The Cubs have a top pitching coach in the league and Shark was not as bad as last years numbers. He was struck by one of the worst defenses in the league. Im not advocating Shark is a must. I am advocating that stop tossing him to the side because you just don't like him.
greg23
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Sign heyward to play rf
Tradr soler to atl for miller
Sign a defensive oriented cf to a 2 year deal
Smaller fa deals to fill out bench
Call it an off season
Tradr soler to atl for miller
Sign a defensive oriented cf to a 2 year deal
Smaller fa deals to fill out bench
Call it an off season
JimJohnson
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Getting really tired of hearing about the lack of financial resources the Cubs have to sign top players. Maybe fans should stop going to the games if management isn't going to spend the money.
And Tom Ricketts, please shut the **** up about how it's always been a childhood dream for the Cubs to win the WS. Clearly not!
And Tom Ricketts, please shut the **** up about how it's always been a childhood dream for the Cubs to win the WS. Clearly not!
beckdawg
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Theo/Jed have talked about adding arms at all levels and depth. If they did have Edwards in AAA with all the relievers they seem to have now it might allow them to stretch him out some. I still wonder if he can't be a guy to get you like 20-25 starts with say 130-150ish innings and not wear down. Obviously that wouldn't be ideal for him considering the hope that he could be more but unless he's a dominating closer his value as a RP just isn't quite there.
beckdawg
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It's actually hilarious hearing these types of rumors and the trade rumors during the astros leak. I mean I get the idea of starting high and working toward fair but the names that apparently are starting points in trades are worse than people in your fantasy baseball league.
In unrelated news, the Sox didn't tender Jacob Turner. A minor league contract reunion with the cubs still likely makes sense.
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bamainatlantaYou wake him up, you keep him up