You're the GM (Game)

[Parade_Rain]

I know the irony is factual. :smh:

I'll let you have the last word, Brett05. I know you need it. Happy New Year, bud.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Last year three teams came out of the NL Central. I would be surprised if 2 made it this year with the resurgent West (I would have counted LA out before the Maeda signing) and the Nats and Mets both looking like playoff teams in the East. Thoughts?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Last year three teams came out of the NL Central. I would be surprised if 2 made it this year with the resurgent West (I would have counted LA out before the Maeda signing) and the Nats and Mets both looking like playoff teams in the East. Thoughts?

I think we need to wait until all the off-season signings are made to determine that, but I'll weigh in anyway.

I think you have the two teams that it will boil down to in the NL East correct. Has Pittsburgh done anything exciting? I'm not certain the Cardinals are going to make enough of a splash to replace Lackey's production and Heyworth. Let alone, AFAIK, Molina had to have a second surgery on his thumb as the first one didn't take. He is hard to replace, if that is needed. The only team I do feel confident in the NL Central of making the playoffs/winning the division is the Cubs. As for the NL West, new manager. I'm not sure Maeda will be enough of a difference maker when he is replacing something lost. I think the Giants are the clear favorites as of now, but on't count out the Dbacks or the Dodgers for a WC.

 

[DanTown]

3) I think I showed with my get 25 two WAR players to show the correlation just isn't there. Now you have said it correlates but I am not sure about that especially in the projection business.

You didn't prove anything. WAR is a playing time stat that means if you had 25 players each get 2 WAR, you'd have different value based on their lack of playing time. A 2 WAR pitcher who pitches 180 innings versus a pitcher who pitches 65 innings is the difference between Mark Burhle and Wade Davis. But like I tried to prove to you, if somehow you had 25 players get the same amount of playing time, it's entirely possible a lineup/rotation of 2 WAR players would win 98 games. The team I built for you, has no obvious weakness that EVERY other team has. While it wouldn't have many "elite" players playing 160 games, they'd also never have a bad hitter either nor a bad pitcher.

You didn't even make an argument as to why 25 players of 2 WAR wouldn't win, you just something like "nah, they wouldn't".

 

[DanTown]

The thing about the NL, with the Reds, Phillies, and Braves essentially tanking, it's 5 teams for 12 spots.

My guess is the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, are locks due to depth and talent and resources to acquire players as necessary.

Arizona, Washington, New York, Pittsburgh, St. Louis are battling for two spots and will go to the team(s) who get the most breaks with health, production, lack of bad play, etc.

Finally, Miami may be the one team that takes a huge leap to the playoffs. The others are simply too flawed to imagine them winning 90+ games it will take to be a playoff team.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The thing about the NL, with the Reds, Phillies, and Braves essentially tanking, it's 5 teams for 12 spots.

My guess is the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, are locks due to depth and talent and resources to acquire players as necessary.

Arizona, Washington, New York, Pittsburgh, St. Louis are battling for two spots and will go to the team(s) who get the most breaks with health, production, lack of bad play, etc.

Finally, Miami may be the one team that takes a huge leap to the playoffs. The others are simply too flawed to imagine them winning 90+ games it will take to be a playoff team.

Maybe I'm nuts but I don't see the Dodgers as a lock at all, even though your point about resources is well taken. Their bullpen is positively awful outside of Kenley Jansen and if they were going to load up there they should have done it a month ago like the Cubs did. That said the Cubs have a numbers game and it wouldn't shock me at all if the Dodgers made an offer for Ramirez who looks to be the odd man out here. That would help them but they'd still have a long way to go. I think they've done a lot towards making a good rotation but I'd still call it third best in that division. Maybe a late trade or a bat that falls in their lap changes things but for now I'd still call them third in that division and if SF get Cespedes or Upton that changes things too. Lots of bats without teams but some of those guys will likely end up on one year deals to non contenders because most of the contenders are nearly out of money.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Where is the thankbanging crowd?

 

[brett05]

Last year three teams came out of the NL Central. I would be surprised if 2 made it this year with the resurgent West (I would have counted LA out before the Maeda signing) and the Nats and Mets both looking like playoff teams in the East. Thoughts?

You have a very large split in the Haves (Cubs, Dodgers, Giants) and the Have Nots (Phillies, Rockies, Brewers, Reds). There might be a developing middle tier with teams like the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Cardinals. The NL playoff teams I see coming from a group of the following: Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals, Mets, Pirates. I think it would be tough for the Central to not get a second team.

 

[brett05]

You didn't prove anything. WAR is a playing time stat that means if you had 25 players each get 2 WAR, you'd have different value based on their lack of playing time. A 2 WAR pitcher who pitches 180 innings versus a pitcher who pitches 65 innings is the difference between Mark Burhle and Wade Davis. But like I tried to prove to you, if somehow you had 25 players get the same amount of playing time, it's entirely possible a lineup/rotation of 2 WAR players would win 98 games. The team I built for you, has no obvious weakness that EVERY other team has. While it wouldn't have many "elite" players playing 160 games, they'd also never have a bad hitter either nor a bad pitcher.

You didn't even make an argument as to why 25 players of 2 WAR wouldn't win, you just something like "nah, they wouldn't".

It's hypothetical since we can't actually construct the team. Could they win 98 games? Sure. Probably closer to .500 most would agree IMO. I never said I went to prove anything. I provided food for thought.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You have a very large split in the Haves (Cubs, Dodgers, Giants) and the Have Nots (Phillies, Rockies, Brewers, Reds). There might be a developing middle tier with teams like the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Cardinals. The NL playoff teams I see coming from a group of the following: Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals, Mets, Pirates. I think it would be tough for the Central to not get a second team.

If I were to pick today Arizona would be my pick in the NL West but if SF adds a Cespedes or Upton that changes. I don't like what the Pirates have done this offseason at all. I think it will be tough for them to make the playoffs although they will certainly be competitive. I think the Cardinals need a bat but certainly look like about a 90-93 win team without one.

 

[DanTown]

It's hypothetical since we can't actually construct the team. Could they win 98 games? Sure. Probably closer to .500 most would agree IMO. I never said I went to prove anything. I provided food for thought.

Here's what I said earlier

12 hitters with 515 PA
13 pitchers with 112 innings

Here are what 2 WAR players look like (roughly)
Hitter: Chris Coghlan last year (.250/.341/.443)
Pitcher: 110 innings / 3.5 FIP

here is how those splits rank by team if we just multiply Coghlan's production to 12 hitters

Average - .250 (20th)
On-Base - .341 (1st)
Slugging - .443 (2nd)
OPS - .784 (2nd)
HR - 192 (6th)

FIP - 3.50 (6th)

Again, if some team accrued those stats but it was evenly dispersed, you mean to tell me they'd be a .500 team? That's insane. That's a team that's top 3ish in offense (the only team with a better offense is probably the Jays) and their staff is definitely top 10. Not sure how a team with no weaknesses loses half their games.

 

[brett05]

Here's what I said earlier



here is how those splits rank by team if we just multiply Coghlan's production to 12 hitters

Average - .250 (20th)
On-Base - .341 (1st)
Slugging - .443 (2nd)
OPS - .784 (2nd)
HR - 192 (6th)

FIP - 3.50 (6th)

Again, if some team accrued those stats but it was evenly dispersed, you mean to tell me they'd be a .500 team? That's insane. That's a team that's top 3ish in offense (the only team with a better offense is probably the Jays) and their staff is definitely top 10. Not sure how a team with no weaknesses loses half their games.

the failure in your example takes a team of 12 Coghlan's instead of a team of 12 - 2 war players.

 

[DanTown]

the failure in your example takes a team of 12 Coghlan's instead of a team of 12 - 2 war players.

Baseball reference called him 1.9 WAR.

Let's get more technical: if a baseball team (let's use the DH since it's easier to calculate their hitting), here is what 2 WAR / 515 PA looks like

C (2 where the PA is roughly 650 and WAR is 4) - Montero, Perez (Clev)
1B - Mitch Moreland
2B - Wilmer Flores
SS - Flores
3B - Chisenhall (2014)
LF - Zobrist
CF - Yelich
RF - Beltran
DH - David Ortiz (all DH PA = 2.8 WAR)
Bench IF - Flores
Bench OF - Rajai Davis (less PA but 1.8 WAR)

Team hitting: .267/.334/.440 with 192 HR
BA - 4th
OBP - 2nd
Slugging - 2nd
HR - 6th

Pitching (total IP = 1458)
5 SP = 900 innings = 180 innings/starter
8 relievers = 558 innings = 68 innings
5 Marco Estrada's
8 Trevor Rosenthanl
Projected team FIP - 3.36

Pitching - #2 in FIP

OF COURSE that team wins 95+ games.

 

[brett05]

Baseball reference called him 1.9 WAR.

Let's get more technical: if a baseball team (let's use the DH since it's easier to calculate their hitting), here is what 2 WAR / 515 PA looks like

C (2 where the PA is roughly 650 and WAR is 4) - Montero, Perez (Clev)
1B - Mitch Moreland
2B - Wilmer Flores
SS - Flores
3B - Chisenhall (2014)
LF - Zobrist
CF - Yelich
RF - Beltran
DH - David Ortiz (all DH PA = 2.8 WAR)
Bench IF - Flores
Bench OF - Rajai Davis (less PA but 1.8 WAR)

Team hitting: .267/.334/.440 with 192 HR
BA - 4th
OBP - 2nd
Slugging - 2nd
HR - 6th

Pitching (total IP = 1458)
5 SP = 900 innings = 180 innings/starter
8 relievers = 558 innings = 68 innings
5 Marco Estrada's
8 Trevor Rosenthanl
Projected team FIP - 3.36

Pitching - #2 in FIP

OF COURSE that team wins 95+ games.

you are getting there. You cannot use more than one player. find five different starters with 2 WAR each, etc etc,

 

[DanTown]

you are getting there. You cannot use more than one player. find five different starters with 2 WAR each, etc etc,

I'm already there because the only thing that matters is their stats, not their name. Of course I didn't clone a pitcher; I cloned their stats. You seem to think a team of two WAR guys is some average team but 2 WAR is hard to do (94 hitters and 57 pitchers had a 2.0+ WAR season).

But if you want non-clones
Estrada - 181 innings - 4.40 FIP - 1.8 WAR
Wacha - 183 innings - 3.87 FIP - 2.3 WAR
Buerhle - 198 innings - 4.26 FIP - 2.1 WAR
Jimmy Nelson - 177 innings - 4.10 FIP - 2.1 WAR
B. Anderson - 180 innings - 3.94 FIP 1.7 WAR

Bullpen
Carson Smith - 70 innings - 2.12 FIP - 2.1 WAR
Trevor Rosenthal - 68 innings - 2.42 FIP - 2.0 WAR
Ken Giles - 70 innings - 2.13 FIP - 2.0 WAR
Wade Davis - 67 innings - 2.29 FIP - 2.0 WAR
O'Day - 65 innings - 2.49 FIP - 1.8 WAR
Miller - 61 innings - 2.16 FIP - 2.0 WAR
Britton - 65 innings - 2.01 FIP - 2.1 WAR
Melancon - 76 innings - 2.82 FIP - 1.5 WAR

Two more IF - Jose Iglesias (1.6 WAR over 454 PA)
Johnny Peralta (a 1.7 WAR player over 640 PA)

 

[Raskolnikov]

Baez as the third infielder and pinch hitter is kind of glorious. Or eventual trade bait.

 

[brett05]

I'm already there because the only thing that matters is their stats, not their name. Of course I didn't clone a pitcher; I cloned their stats. You seem to think a team of two WAR guys is some average team but 2 WAR is hard to do (94 hitters and 57 pitchers had a 2.0+ WAR season).

But if you want non-clones
Estrada - 181 innings - 4.40 FIP - 1.8 WAR
Wacha - 183 innings - 3.87 FIP - 2.3 WAR
Buerhle - 198 innings - 4.26 FIP - 2.1 WAR
Jimmy Nelson - 177 innings - 4.10 FIP - 2.1 WAR
B. Anderson - 180 innings - 3.94 FIP 1.7 WAR

Bullpen
Carson Smith - 70 innings - 2.12 FIP - 2.1 WAR
Trevor Rosenthal - 68 innings - 2.42 FIP - 2.0 WAR
Ken Giles - 70 innings - 2.13 FIP - 2.0 WAR
Wade Davis - 67 innings - 2.29 FIP - 2.0 WAR
O'Day - 65 innings - 2.49 FIP - 1.8 WAR
Miller - 61 innings - 2.16 FIP - 2.0 WAR
Britton - 65 innings - 2.01 FIP - 2.1 WAR
Melancon - 76 innings - 2.82 FIP - 1.5 WAR

Two more IF - Jose Iglesias (1.6 WAR over 454 PA)
Johnny Peralta (a 1.7 WAR player over 640 PA)

And that team is .500

 

[brett05]

Baez as the third infielder and pinch hitter is kind of glorious. Or eventual trade bait.

If Baez doesn;t play regularly his value decreases as time goes by.

 

[DanTown]

And that team is .500

How is that a .500 team? It's basically a better offensive team than the Royals (who won 95 games).

Good to know you're basically a troll.

 

[brett05]

How is that a .500 team? It's basically a better offensive team than the Royals (who won 95 games).

Good to know you're basically a troll.

Good to know you are clueless to what the word troll means. you do have company on this board with that so at least you are not alone.

Back to the topic. That team has a bunch of nice players. That's what 2 war players are, a bunch of nice players. Those teams in general are .500 teams. They can be better, they can be worse, but IMO that pans out to a .500 team. you put that roster to anyone that gets paid to comment on the sport how many games that team wins and I am going to say it comes out to 81 wins. They could do better. They could do worse, but .500 is right there what the experts would say. It's why WAR of individuals do not equal the Wins of a team.