You're the GM (Game)

[TL1961]

Vogel-bach!
Vogel-bach!

 

[beckdawg]

The trade talk involving Tampa Bay seems to be a little warmer again with the Cubs said to be wanting either Odorizzi or Cobb without giving up Soler or Baez. Maybe they can get that done with Cobb coming off of TJ but I don't know.

I can't really imagine the appeal of Cobb for Baez/Soler. If you're giving up a lessor package I kind of like the idea but the problem is he's A) coming off the injury and B) he's 28 with 2 years of control left. Odorizzi is a bit more interesting both in age and control but I don't know... he looks like a pretty good #3 and not much more from a numbers standpoint. I suppose you could buy into the idea of him improving some and all that.

But then the problem I have is I think you have to move Hammel to make it work. My feelings on Hendricks aside, I can't imagine why the cubs would trade him. At the very worst he's a very good #5 and he's cost controlled until 2021. So, I can't imagine why the cubs would deal him away because he's the very definition of the player they should be trying to acquire from an age/control standpoint and that's obviously saying nothing to my feelings of how good he can be. Also, if you move Hendricks rather than Hammel, you're probably looking at finding another starter in 2017 if they presumably don't pick up Hammel's option. And with the possibility of losing both Lackey and Arrieta the year after that(and Cobb if he's the guy) I'm not sure you want to count on your farm system to produce that many arms that quickly. That being said, I do think Hammel has some trade value once the FA guys finally come off the board. In a market where Mike Leake is a $16 mil pitcher, Hammel at $9 mil is pretty reasonable for anyone who missed out on pitching and is looking to fill a back of the rotation slot. That's not to say the cubs would get any kind of major haul for him but more to say that they could move him for something.

Another thought I had when reading this info on bleacher nation earlier was the concept of the cubs dealing a Baez/Soler package for a high profile AA/AAA arm. I'm not 100% sure who that would be. However, if we just stick with the Rays here, you could feasibly trade either in a package for Blake Snell and Brent Honeywell. Snell should start in AAA with the possibility of a midseason call up and Honeywell will start in either A+ or AA. That is perhaps a bit too rich and maybe you swap Honeywell with Taylor Guerrieri. But I think the general idea works in theory and that idea is to use their apparent surplus to buy some higher tier arms near the majors but not quite there yet. You could also ostensibly do a 3 team deal where the cubs send away Baez/Soler to the Rays who send Moore/Cobb to third team and the cubs also get higher profile AA/AAA arm. I've read the Rockies might be interested in the Rays arms so perhaps you could do something like Baez to TB, Cobb/Moore to COL and Jon Gray to the cubs. Or perhaps you look at the dodgers who seem to be hunting that #2 arm after Kershaw. They have Julio Urias(#4 overall), Jose De Leon(#23 overall), Grant Holmes(#58 overall), and Frankie Montas(#54 overall) as pitching prospects. What they don't really have is the bats to make the deal unless you're trading Joc or Corey Seager which they don't seem to want to do. If the cubs netted 2 of those 4 pitchers for Baez in a 3 way trade to Tampa I'd consider that pretty good return and as deep as both the cubs and dodgers systems are there likely are the parts to make a bigger trade work if you want to add in Jennings for CF or bullpen help.

Essentially my point here I guess is that most of the talk around the cubs acquiring another pitcher seems to be for the 2016 season. I think you'd probably be better served focusing on a higher talent player who's not ready for the majors yet and grooming him for a 2017ish debut once Hammel's contract is done. And if the rays are as smitten with Baez as the rumors would have you believe, they are in good position even if the two teams may not match up well on a 1-1 trade.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It would be awfully tough to trade Baez now, or for that matter for him to have a terrible ST and not make the team. He is essentially you backup at SS, 3B and can play virtually anywhere else. If they go with 13 pitchers a guy who can do that is valuable. I'm not sure the Cubs won't trade him eventually but for right now I think he's a key piece for 2016. Soler could go without major consequence provided a trade with TB brought not only a pitcher but an OF who could play CF like Kiermeier (unlikely) or Jennings. In the end I'm not sure either gets done. I don't think a trade of either Soler or Baez would be for a near ready prospect though. They need guys for a WS run in 2016.

 

[JimJohnson]

Still holding out hope for Salazar.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'd like to see a trade that doesn't involve Baez and Soler. We have a 3B who is blocked. It isn't just Vogelbach. An AL team would be a good partner.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'd like to see a trade that doesn't involve Baez and Soler. We have a 3B who is blocked. It isn't just Vogelbach. An AL team would be a good partner.

The problem with Villanueva is that he's probably not a starter on a contending team and very few teams carry one position players on their bench. I think he'd be more likely to be traded for a prospect to a non contender trying to just fill a roster like the Cubs a few years ago while hoping to catch lightening in a bottle at the same time. Vogelbach is a little bit different as if he can play some 1B he's probably an MLB player, even on a contender. The issue is that the majority of AL clubs already have guys like him in their system. I think he could be a piece in a trade to the AL but on his own wouldn't net you much.

That said I don't want to lose Baez for 2016 and I'd have to see a formidable starter in return to part with Soler. With both Jose Frenandez and Sonny Gray likely to be dangled at the deadline I'm not sure they need to do anything right now except pick up a defensive oriented OF for the bench. My vote goes to signing Austin Jackson. the way it's looking I bet you could get him for 2/$10 million at this point.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The problem with Villanueva is that he's probably not a starter on a contending team and very few teams carry one position players on their bench. I think he'd be more likely to be traded for a prospect to a non contender trying to just fill a roster like the Cubs a few years ago while hoping to catch lightening in a bottle at the same time. Vogelbach is a little bit different as if he can play some 1B he's probably an MLB player, even on a contender. The issue is that the majority of AL clubs already have guys like him in their system. I think he could be a piece in a trade to the AL but on his own wouldn't net you much.

That said I don't want to lose Baez for 2016 and I'd have to see a formidable starter in return to part with Soler. With both Jose Frenandez and Sonny Gray likely to be dangled at the deadline I'm not sure they need to do anything right now except pick up a defensive oriented OF for the bench. My vote goes to signing Austin Jackson. the way it's looking I bet you could get him for 2/$10 million at this point.

I wasn't suggesting trading 1. I think you could package several and get a decent pitcher who is on the mend from TJ.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wasn't suggesting trading 1. I think you could package several and get a decent pitcher who is on the mend from TJ.

No I get you. The problem is that I think virtually every AL team thinks they're a contender, offhand I can't think of one that doesn't, and they want MLB players in return. TB actually thinks they're in play for a Division title in the AL East. I think that's crazy talk but they think it.

 

[beckdawg]

The problem with Villanueva is that he's probably not a starter on a contending team and very few teams carry one position players on their bench. I think he'd be more likely to be traded for a prospect to a non contender trying to just fill a roster like the Cubs a few years ago while hoping to catch lightening in a bottle at the same time. Vogelbach is a little bit different as if he can play some 1B he's probably an MLB player, even on a contender. The issue is that the majority of AL clubs already have guys like him in their system. I think he could be a piece in a trade to the AL but on his own wouldn't net you much.

That said I don't want to lose Baez for 2016 and I'd have to see a formidable starter in return to part with Soler. With both Jose Frenandez and Sonny Gray likely to be dangled at the deadline I'm not sure they need to do anything right now except pick up a defensive oriented OF for the bench. My vote goes to signing Austin Jackson. the way it's looking I bet you could get him for 2/$10 million at this point.

Honestly, if I were the cubs and were looking to make a deal with a 3B I'd probably consider Candleario first before Villanueva. He's farther away albeit not much and he's probably got more trade value. However, he's also close enough that presumably Bryant will still be an effective 3B by the time he would be ready for the majors. So, ideally you'd want someone 2-3 years younger than him as your "next 3B." Villanueva is a solid glove who wont hit a ton but has value as a defensive back up and if they push him some at 1B too would potentially give them a useful guy on the 40 man.

As for trading Baez, replacing what he does isn't that hard. I don't hold a huge opinion on him like some and I do hold a lot of hope for Alcantara so perhaps I'm biased there but Alcantara could easily play the same role. It's just a question of can Alcantara hit. For what it's worth, he's apparently crushing winter league playoffs right now. He did hit well in winter league last year so I'm not really sure how much that matters but its better than him sucking there too. I'd also point out that while Baez's .289/.325/.408 batting line last season looks ok, it came with a .412 BABIP. He's typically been more in the .330 range and that ~80 point difference really impacts his line. Streamer has him at .252/.302/.457 next season and has Alcantara at .237/.286/.385.

I'm not going to sit and chastise those who want to keep Baez but I feel like given his value is apparently still high you're playing a risky game by not moving him. It seems to me there's far more that could go poorly for him in a reserve role to hurt his value than there are outs for him to improve his value. There's a reason you don't see many guys like Zobrist pop out of no where from a reserve role. I could see the argument if the cubs didn't have much behind him but you have Alcantara who's just as versatile, Villanueva at 3B and a high degree of chance they look to get a CF in FA/trade anyways. And even if those options are ineffective it's not like they are the only line of defense. You have Torres and Almora in a year or two.

Obviously there's two sides to a trade here and the cubs would be stupid to move him for something small. As I said, I don't like the Cobb trade if it's for either Soler or Baez. However, if a reasonable value is out there I can't see a reason to avoid it. Given the prices we've seen thus far and the utter lack of movement of the dozens of names who might be on the market, my guess is teams are just being unreasonable right now with MLB ready pitchers. So, perhaps like I said it's a case where you might have to move for near MLB ready pitchers to get proper value.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Alcantara really has a great spring I agree that it might make Baez more expendable. I'm just not holding my breath on Alcantara, I'm not sure he's an MLB player and I'm reasonably certain Baez is.

 

[beckdawg]

If Alcantara really has a great spring I agree that it might make Baez more expendable. I'm just not holding my breath on Alcantara, I'm not sure he's an MLB player and I'm reasonably certain Baez is.

It obviously possible Alcantara isn't a major league player. My point is more that what Baez offers isn't that unique off the bench. For instance, how much do you really lose with him vs Szczur off the bench in CF? How much do you lose with him vs La Stella off the bench at 2B? He's undoubtably better than those two players but it's not a case of him vs them. It's him vs them + whatever his trade value is. I have never liked the idea of putting premium talent in a reserve role. I said the same thing about Alcantara prior to last season. Streamer has Baez at 1.5 wins next season which I'd argue is a bit high as I'm not sure he gets 17 HRs in under 400 PAs but I'll humor the projection. Chris Denorfia in 231 PAs last season was worth 0.8 fWAR. La Stella and Jackson would have been around 1 with similar PAs to what Baez is projected to get.

So, is half a win or so really that big of a deal? Again, it obviously is highly dependent on who you want to trade him for. The more I think about it the more I grow fond of the idea of dealing him for 2 higher tier pitching prospects rather than someone who's ready today because it is clearly the biggest weakness in the cubs system. They have depth of arms but don't have a ton of front line quality and if you add two more guys who could be front line starters suddenly the outlook on their system changes greatly. And as I've said, the impact to the 2016 team seems rather minimal especially when you consider guys like Fowler are still sitting around in FA.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It obviously possible Alcantara isn't a major league player. My point is more that what Baez offers isn't that unique off the bench. For instance, how much do you really lose with him vs Szczur off the bench in CF? How much do you lose with him vs La Stella off the bench at 2B? He's undoubtably better than those two players but it's not a case of him vs them. It's him vs them + whatever his trade value is. I have never liked the idea of putting premium talent in a reserve role. I said the same thing about Alcantara prior to last season. Streamer has Baez at 1.5 wins next season which I'd argue is a bit high as I'm not sure he gets 17 HRs in under 400 PAs but I'll humor the projection. Chris Denorfia in 231 PAs last season was worth 0.8 fWAR. La Stella and Jackson would have been around 1 with similar PAs to what Baez is projected to get.

So, is half a win or so really that big of a deal? Again, it obviously is highly dependent on who you want to trade him for. The more I think about it the more I grow fond of the idea of dealing him for 2 higher tier pitching prospects rather than someone who's ready today because it is clearly the biggest weakness in the cubs system. They have depth of arms but don't have a ton of front line quality and if you add two more guys who could be front line starters suddenly the outlook on their system changes greatly. And as I've said, the impact to the 2016 team seems rather minimal especially when you consider guys like Fowler are still sitting around in FA.

I think you're selling Baez a little short on where he can play. He can basically play any position but catch and pitch if you needed him to. I think that's what's valuable. I think they're going to go out and get a guy who can play center, I think Austin Jackson is very much in play, and then LaStella, Baez and Coghlan are the rest of your bench. I think that gives you 4 bats, Jackson can hit some, where if you go with an if at Alcantara and don't acquire a guy like Jackson in favor of Szczur the guys than can hit might total 2.

 

[beckdawg]

I think you're selling Baez a little short on where he can play. He can basically play any position but catch and pitch if you needed him to. I think that's what's valuable. I think they're going to go out and get a guy who can play center, I think Austin Jackson is very much in play, and then LaStella, Baez and Coghlan are the rest of your bench. I think that gives you 4 bats, Jackson can hit some, where if you go with an if at Alcantara and don't acquire a guy like Jackson in favor of Szczur the guys than can hit might total 2.

I understand versatility I just don't see it as such a huge deal. For instance, Heyward can play all 3 OF spots. Soler can play both corners. Cogs can play both corners and probably 2B/3B. Bryant can probably play all 3 OF spots to some extent though I wouldn't want him in CF much. Russell can play 2b/3b/ss. Schwarber can play C/LF and maybe 1B. Zobrist is.... well Zobrist. In other words, the cubs already have a lot of versatility from their starters. It's kind of backward in that regard as you typically have versatile players on the bench. And while we've seen Baez play 3B/2B/SS, we don't quite know how good he is in the OF yet. So, it's entirely plausible that he's not going to be that good there. But again, I'll humor the argument that he is. I just don't see the versatility he has as a huge need. It's clearly nice but they cubs don't have 8 immovable players as starters that they have to have bench players who can sub around.

I mean let's look at this way, I agree with you about CF. I don't know who that guy will be yet but their OF will be something like Schwarber, Heyward, Soler, Cogs, and CF dude. That's a solid and deep OF. Their IF at the moment is Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Zobrist, Baez, La Stella I guess and then you have the 2 catchers. Baez allows a lot of creativity for double switching multiple times but again I would ask is that really such a huge deal? Obviously it's always nice to have but I guess the point I'm trying to get across here is Baez is the most luxury of bench players. He's not a key piece to winning. The cubs used Herrera in a lessor role of what he will be next season and still won 97 games. In a vacuum sure you choose to have that but when you start talking about who has more long term value I find it hard to believe that Baez with the cubs has more long term value than what he would bring in trade for pitching. On a team where Baez can start it wouldn't shock me if he was a cost controlled young player who puts up 3 fWAR a season. But he's not going to do that off the bench for the cubs. Streamer is putting him at half that value with the cubs next season. On the contrary, if they get someone who's a #3 starter or better for Baez that pitcher just presents more value.

 

[Parade_Rain]

It obviously possible Alcantara isn't a major league player. My point is more that what Baez offers isn't that unique off the bench. For instance, how much do you really lose with him vs Szczur off the bench in CF? How much do you lose with him vs La Stella off the bench at 2B? He's undoubtably better than those two players but it's not a case of him vs them. It's him vs them + whatever his trade value is. I have never liked the idea of putting premium talent in a reserve role. I said the same thing about Alcantara prior to last season. Streamer has Baez at 1.5 wins next season which I'd argue is a bit high as I'm not sure he gets 17 HRs in under 400 PAs but I'll humor the projection. Chris Denorfia in 231 PAs last season was worth 0.8 fWAR. La Stella and Jackson would have been around 1 with similar PAs to what Baez is projected to get.

So, is half a win or so really that big of a deal? Again, it obviously is highly dependent on who you want to trade him for. The more I think about it the more I grow fond of the idea of dealing him for 2 higher tier pitching prospects rather than someone who's ready today because it is clearly the biggest weakness in the cubs system. They have depth of arms but don't have a ton of front line quality and if you add two more guys who could be front line starters suddenly the outlook on their system changes greatly. And as I've said, the impact to the 2016 team seems rather minimal especially when you consider guys like Fowler are still sitting around in FA.

If I have my choice between Baez, Sczcur, and LaStella, Baez is head and shoulders above them offensively. You could put both of them together and they would not equal Baez. This is coming from a poster who isn't sold on Baez as a Cub.

 

[DanTown]

If I have my choice between Baez, Sczcur, and LaStella, Baez is head and shoulders above them offensively. You could put both of them together and they would not equal Baez. This is coming from a poster who isn't sold on Baez as a Cub.

I think the larger point is that the drop from Baez to Alcantra isn't that large for the Cubs but the value of the prospects in a trade is quite large as obviously Baez would be a valuable part of any trade and Alcantra wouldn't be.

For much that same reason, I wouldn't trade either of Soler or Baez for a SP unless it was a legit long term TOR arm. I'd rather wait and have the injury flexibility/late game ability to match-up than I'd want a SP who probably isn't that much better than what Hendricks or Hammel are giving you. In fact, I'd rather trade BOTH Soler/Baez and get a legitimate arm at the top than trade either one individually.

 

[beckdawg]

If I have my choice between Baez, Sczcur, and LaStella, Baez is head and shoulders above them offensively. You could put both of them together and they would not equal Baez. This is coming from a poster who isn't sold on Baez as a Cub.

Not sure I actually agree here. It seems as though you're looking at this as Baez for 650 PAs vs those two for the same amount of time. And sure in that case Baez's talent wins out. But that's not actually how any of them will play. The 9th and 10th hitters on an NL team will typically get around 250 PAs each. It's simply hard to make a giant impact in 250 PAs. Rizzo for example would have been worth around 2 wins over that time span all things being equal. As I mentioned before Deno wasn't amazing last season but over 231 PAs he was worth 0.8 fWAR. So you're not talking about a huge difference in production despite the clear difference in talent.

I'd also point out that the rhetoric seems to be Baez can play so many places. He's done that but has he done it well? I was going to get into the nitty gritty details on UZR and what not but it's kind of pointless here as it is a limited data set. So, I'll just state that other than his play at 3B he's been well below average at his respective positions. And I can't imagine as raw as he would be in the OF that he'd suddenly be plus there either though admittedly he could improve over time. That stands in stark contrast when the media talks about him as the cubs version of Zobrist because other than SS where he was marginally below average, Zobrist was a plus defender to go along with his bat. And when we reign this back into the talk about bench players I think that's an important consideration. That's not to suggest that La Stella or Szczur are superior defenders because frankly they are average or below average at their respective positions. The point is more that if you're looking to find valuable super utility players they typically end up coming both with a decent bat and good to great defense over multiple positions. Thus far outside of 3B, Baez hasn't really shown that. So, to get great value out of him you're likely going to have to find some way to manufacture PAs for him which would likely come at the cost of Soler or Schwarber.

To put this in as simple terms as I think I can, for the sake of argument let's just say the trade value for Baez is Jake Odorizzi. He was basically worth 3 fWAR last season. To suggest Baez will be worth a similar 3-ish fWAR in 2016 over let's say 300 PAs to bump him up a little basically means that you think over a full season he's worth 6.5 fWAR. 6.5 fWAR is Kris Bryant. In other words, if Baez is that good he should be starting if not on the cubs for someone else. If you want to suggest Baez will be worth 2 fWAR over 300 PAs that makes him worth 4.3 fWAR which is essentially Jose Altuve or Todd Frazier. In other words, to suggest he's substantially different than the 1-ish fWAR most of the cubs bench players will put up basically is suggesting you think he's at least a 3ish fWAR player over a full season which means he should be starting. By not starting him you're wasting his value and surely they could parlay that value into someone of similar value where they are weaker(ie pitching).

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not sure I actually agree here. It seems as though you're looking at this as Baez for 650 PAs vs those two for the same amount of time. And sure in that case Baez's talent wins out. But that's not actually how any of them will play. The 9th and 10th hitters on an NL team will typically get around 250 PAs each. It's simply hard to make a giant impact in 250 PAs. Rizzo for example would have been worth around 2 wins over that time span all things being equal. As I mentioned before Deno wasn't amazing last season but over 231 PAs he was worth 0.8 fWAR. So you're not talking about a huge difference in production despite the clear difference in talent.

I'd also point out that the rhetoric seems to be Baez can play so many places. He's done that but has he done it well? I was going to get into the nitty gritty details on UZR and what not but it's kind of pointless here as it is a limited data set. So, I'll just state that other than his play at 3B he's been well below average at his respective positions. And I can't imagine as raw as he would be in the OF that he'd suddenly be plus there either though admittedly he could improve over time. That stands in stark contrast when the media talks about him as the cubs version of Zobrist because other than SS where he was marginally below average, Zobrist was a plus defender to go along with his bat. And when we reign this back into the talk about bench players I think that's an important consideration. That's not to suggest that La Stella or Szczur are superior defenders because frankly they are average or below average at their respective positions. The point is more that if you're looking to find valuable super utility players they typically end up coming both with a decent bat and good to great defense over multiple positions. Thus far outside of 3B, Baez hasn't really shown that. So, to get great value out of him you're likely going to have to find some way to manufacture PAs for him which would likely come at the cost of Soler or Schwarber.

To put this in as simple terms as I think I can, for the sake of argument let's just say the trade value for Baez is Jake Odorizzi. He was basically worth 3 fWAR last season. To suggest Baez will be worth a similar 3-ish fWAR in 2016 over let's say 300 PAs to bump him up a little basically means that you think over a full season he's worth 6.5 fWAR. 6.5 fWAR is Kris Bryant. In other words, if Baez is that good he should be starting if not on the cubs for someone else. If you want to suggest Baez will be worth 2 fWAR over 300 PAs that makes him worth 4.3 fWAR which is essentially Jose Altuve or Todd Frazier. In other words, to suggest he's substantially different than the 1-ish fWAR most of the cubs bench players will put up basically is suggesting you think he's at least a 3ish fWAR player over a full season which means he should be starting. By not starting him you're wasting his value and surely they could parlay that value into someone of similar value where they are weaker(ie pitching).

Baez wins because the ball is going to leave the yard a lot more often than a ball coming off the bat of Szczur or LaStella. When/if there is an injury, Baez is the guy I want replacing the injured player, not Szczur or LaStella. Matt change some mechanics last year, but not enough. We will have to see if he did more yet.

 

[beckdawg]

Baez wins because the ball is going to leave the yard a lot more often than a ball coming off the bat of Szczur or LaStella. When/if there is an injury, Baez is the guy I want replacing the injured player, not Szczur or LaStella. Matt change some mechanics last year, but not enough. We will have to see if he did more yet.

I suppose i understand where you're coming from but I don't agree with the approach. If you're banking on an injury I think you're looking at this the wrong way. To spin the similar argument, if the cubs lose Lackey to injury which let's be real seems more likely given pitchers and what not, are you more comfortable with LaStella/Szczur as a fill in or whomever they would throw in to replace Lackey as presently constituted? Ultimately that's the crux of the issue for me. As I said some where before, Baez as a bench player is the most luxury of things you can have. Luxury is nice and all but would you not rather have insurance in case Hammel implodes again instead? And I say that as someone who thinks the cubs pitching is probably fine for 2016 though longer term I'm less sure. I also don't particularly love Baez which has been well stated but he should be starting for someone and given the cubs are with Zobrist for the next 4 years it doesn't seem like it's going to be with the cubs.

 

[chibears55]

Id hold onto Baez until at least the deadline. .

What if Russell struggles out of the gate and sucks, who plays short then ?

I don't think the cubs are looking to make a big trade now, maybe a minor one involving lesser minor leaguers..
Smarter to hold onto the better prospects to get themselves someone that can help them more at deadline. .

 

[Parade_Rain]

Id hold onto Baez until at least the deadline. .

What if Russell struggles out of the gate and sucks, who plays short then ?

I don't think the cubs are looking to make a big trade now, maybe a minor one involving lesser minor leaguers..
Smarter to hold onto the better prospects to get themselves someone that can help them more at deadline. .

Agreed on your reasoning except for Russell struggling and sucking. He might struggle a bit at the dish early, but he isn't going to get replaced for defensive purposes. Russell has a swing that has less moving parts.