I'm not making the claim that Baez lands you Gray straight up. Only that he'd be a big piece of the trade. Obviously there was more that needed to be done to complete it. But its apparent that Theo is unwilling to pull the trigger on a blockbuster trade involving our young studs, most notably Baez. Hell, there were plenty of opportunities last year at the deadline to make it happen (since you all seem to be fond of deadline deals) and nothing was done.
Yes the asking price is high. Guess what? That's not likely to change anytime soon so better get used to it.
Look, nobody wants or realizes the need for a young cost controlled starter more than I do. I think it is a large piece to the current 2 year window and to the larger window going forward. I also have no issue moving Soler or Baez for the right arm. I don't think Theo and Jed do either, although they seem to be more interested in dealing Soler than Baez likely because of the makeup of the current team and Baez' positional flexibility. That said if a deal was there I think they'd make it. The only impact arm to move this offseason has been Shelby Miller and that deal without question skewed the market. Teams like the Indians, Rays and Braves weren't going to trade young arms like Carrasco, Salazar, Moore, Teheran or even Rays #1 prospect Blake Snell without a very large package. Do the Cubs have what it takes to make up that package? Probably but I don't think you're looking at a couple of key factors.
I mentioned that the current market was skewed by the Shelby Miller deal. One executive called it the worst move he had ever seen in his career. Time will tell on that one but it was a lot to give up for a pitcher who hasn't fully shown that he's ready to take that step into TOR starter. In Dansby Swanson the D-Backs gave up one of the most surefire stud prospects this side of Kris Bryant and Addison Russell. Teams just aren't going to make deals like that every day, pitching need or no pitching need. Gutting a farm system for a 2 year contention window isn't great business. So given that the the market will adjust and if teams end up trading young guys like the above and Sonny Gray they'll get nice packages for them but teams realize the uncertainly of young pitching and that's going to temper the market.
On the Cubs end you have to look at it from their point of view. No one knows the value of players better than the their own team and in the Cubs case I believe this to be especially true. I tend to guess that their is some uncertainly in their minds for Soler and not as much for Baez, however I don't believe they think either has reached a peak value and the same is true for some of the other prospects. If Soler, Baez and some of the kids on the farm like Gleyber Torres or Ian Happ come out hot their value is going to be higher than it is now and, with the market coming back some after the insanity of the Miller deal, I think the Cubs feel they're in a decent position here and lets face it the rotation is pretty good right now so there is no desperation. Yes value can go the other way too but you've got to bank on you're own knowledge base and I think that's what they're doing.
All of that being said I think they waited too long on both Castro and Castillo last year but those guys were a little bit different that Baez and Soler. I think they realize Soler's floor and are pretty sure on Baez' and feel that they're more likely to improve than regress increasing their value. Is it a gamble? Sure, but I think it's an educated one. I'd like to see a pitcher added this year but I don't think it's critical until next offseason. This bunch can win a World Series this year and look to be a juggernaut in the regular season with a pitching staff that is solid and deep. There is really no reason to overreact right now.