You're the GM (Game)

[beckdawg]

I'm neither pissed about your AA excitement nor do I wish to curtail it. Comparing his numbers to Baez when one actually hit MLB pitching and the other one went doesn't make a lot of sense to me though. If AA rebounds this season, it makes some trade chips more interesting.

You can't just ignore 220 or whatever PAs from 2014 and choose to look at 80 from 2015 and call it a day. That's the definition of cherry picking. If you want to make the argument that Baez vastly out performed Alcantara in AAA especially if you're talking 2015 then cool. I'm going to sit here and tell you that AAA stats don't really matter and that until any player finally performs at the MLB over a significant sample size(200-300 PAs minimum) it's kind of pointless. I'd also point out that while it's great that Baez hit better both in AAA and MLB last season he carried a .402 BABIP in AAA and a .412 BABIP in the majors. I'm not as high and mighty about BABIP as I used to be namely because of Kris Bryant who consistently had like .370-.400 BABIP which is fairly unheard of. From what I've read the general theory is players who hit the ball as hard as Bryant do have a higher BABIP than normal because harder hit balls are obviously more difficult to field. Maybe you apply that to Baez but then I'd also question why historically in the minors he's been more of a .330ish BABIP guy.

But again I could honestly poke holes in Baez all day long. I spent the better part of a few months doing so and it's not really enjoyable which is why my point here was never that Baez was some how less than Alcantara which is what invariably people always try to make it. I guess the point I was trying to make is people have faith in Baez for 2016 after he made changes. I'm never going to be as high on Baez as some but if people want to view him that way cool. I don't need anyone to tell me that Alcantara had a pretty horrible 2015. As I've said I'm unapologetically a fan. But it seems pretty clear to me he was not the same hitter in 2015. For example, in his really short stint in the majors he put the ball into play 60% of the time. His non-contact rate was also up some in AAA though not as pronounced.

My theory is the cubs were essentially trying to get him to cut down on swinging on pitches outside the zone. It's probably a pretty good theory considering his 34.6% o-swing% in 2014 was over 10% off what someone like Zobrist does and if you wanna compare Alcantara to a more 20%ish k rate type guy like Brian Dozier it was about 5% high. Plus, we already have evidence that they essentially tried to do the same thing to Castro and we know how that went. Whether or not that's a lasting change is hard to say as Castro apparently ultimately dumped the more walk oriented approach. Even given that, Alcantara's numbers weren't that far off a really solid 2014 AAA stint. His HR rate was roughly the same. And while his triple slash was easily worse, he had a .380 BABIP in 2014(AAA) compared to .291 last season. He had a 76 point difference in his batting average and a 68 point difference in OBP. You can essentially entirely tie that to that BABIP difference.

To reign this back in a bit, Baez proponents will point to the swing changes he made. I'm not entirely convinced he's turned the page as some are but I'm willing to humor the argument until we see more. And if Baez has made those changes great for him. It's entirely plausible Alcantara needed to make changes after seeing MLB pitching for the first time and went about a different approach in 2015 which ultimately hurt his numbers. If Baez made the transition quicker that's great and honestly if he's the player you expect a former top 10 prospect to be he should make the changes quicker. That's part of what makes great players great is figuring out flaws quickly. However, that doesn't mean that Alcantara is a failure or a bust or whatever term people would prefer to use because he didn't adapt as quickly.

The only point I was honestly trying to convey here comparing the two was that if there's a path to success for Baez which even I'd argue is there then Alcantara also shares a similar path. And when I talk about that it doesn't necessarily mean peak value of either case. It's more about being a useful major league player in some form. It might take longer but it's not like what Alcantara does as a player has fallen off. His HR is still fine and while his SB numbers were down some, you need to be on base to steal and obviously his OBP was down.

So, that's where break down on all this. If people want to be skeptical on Alcantara I would suggest they should be. All I'm saying is don't totally write him off. And more to the point, if Baez is eventually dealt it's entirely plausible they have a similarly versatile player to replace him.

 

[Parade_Rain]

You can't just ignore 220 or whatever PAs from 2014 and choose to look at 80 from 2015 and call it a day. That's the definition of cherry picking. If you want to make the argument that Baez vastly out performed Alcantara in AAA especially if you're talking 2015 then cool. I'm going to sit here and tell you that AAA stats don't really matter and that until any player finally performs at the MLB over a significant sample size(200-300 PAs minimum) it's kind of pointless. I'd also point out that while it's great that Baez hit better both in AAA and MLB last season he carried a .402 BABIP in AAA and a .412 BABIP in the majors. I'm not as high and mighty about BABIP as I used to be namely because of Kris Bryant who consistently had like .370-.400 BABIP which is fairly unheard of. From what I've read the general theory is players who hit the ball as hard as Bryant do have a higher BABIP than normal because harder hit balls are obviously more difficult to field. Maybe you apply that to Baez but then I'd also question why historically in the minors he's been more of a .330ish BABIP guy.

But again I could honestly poke holes in Baez all day long. I spent the better part of a few months doing so and it's not really enjoyable which is why my point here was never that Baez was some how less than Alcantara which is what invariably people always try to make it. I guess the point I was trying to make is people have faith in Baez for 2016 after he made changes. I'm never going to be as high on Baez as some but if people want to view him that way cool. I don't need anyone to tell me that Alcantara had a pretty horrible 2015. As I've said I'm unapologetically a fan. But it seems pretty clear to me he was not the same hitter in 2015. For example, in his really short stint in the majors he put the ball into play 60% of the time. His non-contact rate was also up some in AAA though not as pronounced.

My theory is the cubs were essentially trying to get him to cut down on swinging on pitches outside the zone. It's probably a pretty good theory considering his 34.6% o-swing% in 2014 was over 10% off what someone like Zobrist does and if you wanna compare Alcantara to a more 20%ish k rate type guy like Brian Dozier it was about 5% high. Plus, we already have evidence that they essentially tried to do the same thing to Castro and we know how that went. Whether or not that's a lasting change is hard to say as Castro apparently ultimately dumped the more walk oriented approach. Even given that, Alcantara's numbers weren't that far off a really solid 2014 AAA stint. His HR rate was roughly the same. And while his triple slash was easily worse, he had a .380 BABIP in 2014(AAA) compared to .291 last season. He had a 76 point difference in his batting average and a 68 point difference in OBP. You can essentially entirely tie that to that BABIP difference.

To reign this back in a bit, Baez proponents will point to the swing changes he made. I'm not entirely convinced he's turned the page as some are but I'm willing to humor the argument until we see more. And if Baez has made those changes great for him. It's entirely plausible Alcantara needed to make changes after seeing MLB pitching for the first time and went about a different approach in 2015 which ultimately hurt his numbers. If Baez made the transition quicker that's great and honestly if he's the player you expect a former top 10 prospect to be he should make the changes quicker. That's part of what makes great players great is figuring out flaws quickly. However, that doesn't mean that Alcantara is a failure or a bust or whatever term people would prefer to use because he didn't adapt as quickly.

The only point I was honestly trying to convey here comparing the two was that if there's a path to success for Baez which even I'd argue is there then Alcantara also shares a similar path. And when I talk about that it doesn't necessarily mean peak value of either case. It's more about being a useful major league player in some form. It might take longer but it's not like what Alcantara does as a player has fallen off. His HR is still fine and while his SB numbers were down some, you need to be on base to steal and obviously his OBP was down.

So, that's where break down on all this. If people want to be skeptical on Alcantara I would suggest they should be. All I'm saying is don't totally write him off. And more to the point, if Baez is eventually dealt it's entirely plausible they have a similarly versatile player to replace him.

Looking at the 2015 stats isn't cherry picking anything. One improved. One didn't. IIRC he struggled throwing from CF. Lots of work to do, if the Cubs trade Baez at some point and look to have Mendy fill that super sub role. It would be better since he can also hit from both sides of the plate. ST isn't very far away for the fans to find out.

 

[85Bears]

To claim the Cubs staff is the best in baseball is laughable.

To you. Obviously not to the guy who wrote the USA Today article. But calling this rotation a "weakness" is likewise laughable.

 

[JimJohnson]

Obviously not to the guy who wrote the USA Today article.

Well if someone wrote an article then I guess it must be true.

 

[85Bears]

Well if someone wrote an article then I guess it must be true.

Well if some random guy on an online forum says the Cubs pitching rotation is a weakness it must be true.

You're entitled to your opinion but that doesn't mean the rest of us, except the Sox fan, agree with it.

 

[JimJohnson]

Well if some random guy on an online forum says the Cubs pitching rotation is a weakness it must be true.

You're entitled to your opinion but that doesn't mean the rest of us, except the Sox fan, agree with it.

Well that's fine, let's see what shakes out this year. I obviously want the Cubs to win it all. However, if their rotation gets rocked in the playoffs, believe me, I will come back to this thread and say "told ya so."

 

[brett05]

Once again Troll05 misses the poster's point.

You need to hire someone else to read these posts to you.

 

[brett05]

To claim the Cubs staff is the best in baseball is laughable. It isn't. Not even if Arrieta goes 25-2 with a 1.1 ERA. Not even then would it be the best starting rotation in baseball.

Really?

 

[JimJohnson]

Really?

Arrieta is just 1 guy.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Arrieta is just 1 guy.

He is but Lester and Lackey aren't chopped liver and there is depth at the bottom. The 5 man rotation projects for somewhere in the range of 17-21 fWAR which is right near the top of the league. By contrast the Mets rotation projects in the same fWAR range, although those power arms are obviously a strength. I agree with you that a young cost controlled starter needs to be a priority, and would be a big boost in teh playoffs, but with the depth behind this rotation as part of a solid bullpen pitching might be an area for improvement but it isn't a profound weakness by any stretch.

 

[Parade_Rain]

You need to hire someone else to read these posts to you.

Ok, Troll05.

 

[brett05]

Arrieta is just 1 guy.

He is, but if you look at last year's team and you add Lackey they do have the best rotation in all of baseball You made the comment of Jake pitching even better in 2016 than 2015. If he does that and nothing else changes, it would be the best rotation in all of baseball quite likely.

 

[DanTown]

You can't just ignore 220 or whatever PAs from 2014 and choose to look at 80 from 2015 and call it a day. That's the definition of cherry picking. If you want to make the argument that Baez vastly out performed Alcantara in AAA especially if you're talking 2015 then cool. I'm going to sit here and tell you that AAA stats don't really matter and that until any player finally performs at the MLB over a significant sample size(200-300 PAs minimum) it's kind of pointless. I'd also point out that while it's great that Baez hit better both in AAA and MLB last season he carried a .402 BABIP in AAA and a .412 BABIP in the majors. I'm not as high and mighty about BABIP as I used to be namely because of Kris Bryant who consistently had like .370-.400 BABIP which is fairly unheard of. From what I've read the general theory is players who hit the ball as hard as Bryant do have a higher BABIP than normal because harder hit balls are obviously more difficult to field. Maybe you apply that to Baez but then I'd also question why historically in the minors he's been more of a .330ish BABIP guy.

But again I could honestly poke holes in Baez all day long. I spent the better part of a few months doing so and it's not really enjoyable which is why my point here was never that Baez was some how less than Alcantara which is what invariably people always try to make it. I guess the point I was trying to make is people have faith in Baez for 2016 after he made changes. I'm never going to be as high on Baez as some but if people want to view him that way cool. I don't need anyone to tell me that Alcantara had a pretty horrible 2015. As I've said I'm unapologetically a fan. But it seems pretty clear to me he was not the same hitter in 2015. For example, in his really short stint in the majors he put the ball into play 60% of the time. His non-contact rate was also up some in AAA though not as pronounced.

My theory is the cubs were essentially trying to get him to cut down on swinging on pitches outside the zone. It's probably a pretty good theory considering his 34.6% o-swing% in 2014 was over 10% off what someone like Zobrist does and if you wanna compare Alcantara to a more 20%ish k rate type guy like Brian Dozier it was about 5% high. Plus, we already have evidence that they essentially tried to do the same thing to Castro and we know how that went. Whether or not that's a lasting change is hard to say as Castro apparently ultimately dumped the more walk oriented approach. Even given that, Alcantara's numbers weren't that far off a really solid 2014 AAA stint. His HR rate was roughly the same. And while his triple slash was easily worse, he had a .380 BABIP in 2014(AAA) compared to .291 last season. He had a 76 point difference in his batting average and a 68 point difference in OBP. You can essentially entirely tie that to that BABIP difference.

To reign this back in a bit, Baez proponents will point to the swing changes he made. I'm not entirely convinced he's turned the page as some are but I'm willing to humor the argument until we see more. And if Baez has made those changes great for him. It's entirely plausible Alcantara needed to make changes after seeing MLB pitching for the first time and went about a different approach in 2015 which ultimately hurt his numbers. If Baez made the transition quicker that's great and honestly if he's the player you expect a former top 10 prospect to be he should make the changes quicker. That's part of what makes great players great is figuring out flaws quickly. However, that doesn't mean that Alcantara is a failure or a bust or whatever term people would prefer to use because he didn't adapt as quickly.

The only point I was honestly trying to convey here comparing the two was that if there's a path to success for Baez which even I'd argue is there then Alcantara also shares a similar path. And when I talk about that it doesn't necessarily mean peak value of either case. It's more about being a useful major league player in some form. It might take longer but it's not like what Alcantara does as a player has fallen off. His HR is still fine and while his SB numbers were down some, you need to be on base to steal and obviously his OBP was down.

So, that's where break down on all this. If people want to be skeptical on Alcantara I would suggest they should be. All I'm saying is don't totally write him off. And more to the point, if Baez is eventually dealt it's entirely plausible they have a similarly versatile player to replace him.

In data, the most recent information is more important than the previous information we have. The data suggests Baez is the superior hitter to Alcantra. I'm not saying Alcantra won't rebound but it's important to note that Alcantra had success early in the league (his first month), then struggled mightily at the end of 2014 (his last two months), wasn't good in a brief run in 2015, then struggled again all year at AAA. We're now about 700 PA between AAA/MLB pitching since Alcantra wasn't a sub replacement level hitter. If he fixes the problem (and there's no guarantee was to what it is) then great, he's another piece for the team and organization. But no logical team would count on AA at all.

 

[Diehardfan]

In data, the most recent information is more important than the previous information we have. The data suggests Baez is the superior hitter to Alcantra. I'm not saying Alcantra won't rebound but it's important to note that Alcantra had success early in the league (his first month), then struggled mightily at the end of 2014 (his last two months), wasn't good in a brief run in 2015, then struggled again all year at AAA. We're now about 700 PA between AAA/MLB pitching since Alcantra wasn't a sub replacement level hitter. If he fixes the problem (and there's no guarantee was to what it is) then great, he's another piece for the team and organization. But no logical team would count on AA at all.

I believe there is a reason that they sent Baez out to the winter league to learn centerfield from Dascenzo. It would seem Alcantra is not exactly standing in the doorway of MLB.

 

[SilenceS]

Well that's fine, let's see what shakes out this year. I obviously want the Cubs to win it all. However, if their rotation gets rocked in the playoffs, believe me, I will come back to this thread and say "told ya so."

Like you did with Lester? Oh wait!

 

[JimJohnson]

He is but Lester and Lackey aren't chopped liver and there is depth at the bottom. The 5 man rotation projects for somewhere in the range of 17-21 fWAR which is right near the top of the league. By contrast the Mets rotation projects in the same fWAR range, although those power arms are obviously a strength. I agree with you that a young cost controlled starter needs to be a priority, and would be a big boost in teh playoffs, but with the depth behind this rotation as part of a solid bullpen pitching might be an area for improvement but it isn't a profound weakness by any stretch.

True but keep in mind the guys at the bottom of the rotation don't matter in the playoffs. The only thing that matters is guys 1-3.

 

[Parade_Rain]

True but keep in mind the guys at the bottom of the rotation don't matter in the playoffs. The only thing that matters is guys 1-3.

Well then I guess the Cubs are good with Arietta, Lester and Lackey.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

True but keep in mind the guys at the bottom of the rotation don't matter in the playoffs. The only thing that matters is guys 1-3.

Arrieta, even with some regression, along with Lester and Lackey are as solid a 1-3 in the league. Sure you might rather have Harvey, Syndergaard and deGrom, who wouldn't, but compare against some of the other NL rotations and they look pretty good. Yes, you could upgrade from Lackey but he's a veteran with playoff experience who looks to have at least a year probably two left. The situation is not dire.

 

[SilenceS]

The Braves had Maddux, Glavin, and Smoltz. They won one championship. Its who gets hot at the right time. The Mets pitchers could easily have a shitty post season next year if they get in. This is baseball. It rarely makes sense.

 

[brett05]

^:clap: great point about the Braves.