You're the GM (Game)

[TC in Mississippi]

The Braves had Maddux, Glavin, and Smoltz. They won one championship. Its who gets hot at the right time. The Mets pitchers could easily have a shitty post season next year if they get in. This is baseball. It rarely makes sense.

Yes and Bumgarner and a bunch of guys got SF through the 2014 playoffs and won the World Series. Each of the randome of guys pitched a good game in different series and they got it done. The thing is to set yourself up with 2 guys up front and hopefully someone to take the 3rd start and even that is no guarantee.

 

[DanTown]

Every team has a weakness until it wins and then it doesn't matter but there is no "perfect" team.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Every team has a weakness until it wins and then it doesn't matter but there is no "perfect" team.

Nope and often when teams try to build one they fail. Jed Hoyer actually discussed this in an interview recently.

 

[beckdawg]

What people are missing when talking about the cubs rotation is the depth. Here's where the various pitchers finished last season

2 Jake Arrieta - 7.3 fWAR
13 Jon Lester - 5.0 fWAR
24 John Lackey - 3.6 fWAR
27 Kyle Hendricks - 3.4 fWAR
49 Jason Hammel - 2.4 fWAR

You then talk about their bullpen where Travis Wood had 1.3 fWAR although not enough to qualify as a starter. Like wise Adam Warren had 2.2 fWAR but didn't qualify. And to round things out you have Cahill who had promise at times, Edwards who is obviously a well regarded prospect. So, the cubs have 4 of the top 30 pitchers from last season and a ton of depth.

Where I would argue there is a difference is the cubs probably lack some top end but in terms of depth I'd imagine they are pretty unrivaled. Last season, the Royals had 2 starters over 2 fWAR. The cards had the best team in baseball and had Lackey(3.6), Martinez(3.4), Lynn(3.1), Garcia(2.8), and Wacha(2.3). You're swapping Lynn with Leake and Lackey with Wainwright. The mets had DeGrom(5.2), Harvey(4.4), Syndergaard(3.1), Colon(2.5) and no 4th guy over 1. If you assume Wheeler is in there with his 2014 form it was 2.5 fWAR though I'd doubt Colon keeps up that pace. They also still have Matz but who knows what he is yet. LA lost grienke and is rebuilding it's staff some. I mean i could go full out here but that covers the "best" teams

 

[CSF77]

You could say thatArrieta falls to a 6 and the rest stay status que and their rotation stays top end

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You could say thatArrieta falls to a 6 and the rest stay status que and their rotation stays top end

As long as he stays healthy I think Lester is going to have an even better season this year. He always starts slow but not "I didn't really pitch in ST" slow. Guy is a pro's pro.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The Braves had Maddux, Glavin, and Smoltz. They won one championship. Its who gets hot at the right time. The Mets pitchers could easily have a shitty post season next year if they get in. This is baseball. It rarely makes sense.

And like someone said previously, a lot of the Mets success had to do with Murphy pulling a series of a lifetime put of his buttocks.

 

[SilenceS]

And like someone said previously, a lot of the Mets success had to do with Murphy pulling a series of a lifetime put of his buttocks.

I didn't want to face them. They were hot and we had beaten them 7 times in the year. Numbers always start to equal out. I was pulling hard for the Dodgers because I thought we could beat them a whole lot easier than the Mets at that time.

 

[CSF77]

I didn't want to face them. They were hot and we had beaten them 7 times in the year. Numbers always start to equal out. I was pulling hard for the Dodgers because I thought we could beat them a whole lot easier than the Mets at that time.

I agree. Mets lacked O earlier season. That was addressed

 

[CSF77]

As long as he stays healthy I think Lester is going to have an even better season this year. He always starts slow but not "I didn't really pitch in ST" slow. Guy is a pro's pro.

He still pulled a 5 War. I believe most just look at his win total and equate that to a sub par season

 

[beckdawg]

As long as he stays healthy I think Lester is going to have an even better season this year. He always starts slow but not "I didn't really pitch in ST" slow. Guy is a pro's pro.

Well the thing is even if Arrieta doesn't pitch and inning and you assume similar performances of the other plus Warren you're still with a staff who's worth 16.6 fWAR based on last years numbers and with more innings and a move to the NL you could argue Warren would be better. That would tie the cards last season for 7th though obviously the cubs were ahead of them in fWAR.

Now again, I'd argue that the cubs have a really amazing regular season staff but it might not play up as well in short series in the playoffs. However, what's great about the way they have position themselves right now is other than maybe 1B and #1/2 SP's they can lose a starter and still not need to deal from prospects. And if Schwarber can play a half decent 1B you could just slot him there and solve some of your issues. That's great because it limits the damage they can do to their long term success by trading away parts. Essentially all they would need to deal for is that top end starter who may be available. I suppose maybe you could also argue if Rondon falls off entirely their BP is a bit questionable too but that seems unlikely and they have several other power arms like Edwards/Black who are near ready for MLB bullpen duty.

All of that is honestly why I loved the Heyward signing so much. You look at who they are counting on long term and it's Heyward and Rizzo at 26, Bryant at 24, Russell at 22, Soler at 24, and Schwarber at 23. I personally think Baez is the guy they will trade but he's also 23 IIRC. So that gives them 6 of their 8 position players below the age of 27and signed until 2020. And with the hitting prospects they still have even their bench will be strong. I mean I've made the case for an Alcantara rebound but if you compare the "shitty" version of him to Herrera who they rostered for all of last season you're looking at .194/.252/.342 for Alcantara with the ability to play almost every position and Herrera who hit .230/.242/.333. And Alcantara probably wont even make the team. And Alcantara may not even be the most talented player they have in AAA if Almora and McKinney are there.

So, they can honestly focus almost 100% of their attention on improving pitching for the next 4 or so years.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I didn't want to face them. They were hot and we had beaten them 7 times in the year. Numbers always start to equal out. I was pulling hard for the Dodgers because I thought we could beat them a whole lot easier than the Mets at that time.

So Murphy didn't pull a great series out of his arse and he is a perennial all-star destined for the Hall of fame. Good to know it was inevitable the Cubs were going to get swept without Murphy's luck, because he cooled off quickly against the Royals. We all know who won the WS.

 

[ChiSoxCity]

What people are missing when talking about the cubs rotation is the depth. Here's where the various pitchers finished last season

2 Jake Arrieta - 7.3 fWAR
13 Jon Lester - 5.0 fWAR
24 John Lackey - 3.6 fWAR
27 Kyle Hendricks - 3.4 fWAR
49 Jason Hammel - 2.4 fWAR

You then talk about their bullpen where Travis Wood had 1.3 fWAR although not enough to qualify as a starter. Like wise Adam Warren had 2.2 fWAR but didn't qualify. And to round things out you have Cahill who had promise at times, Edwards who is obviously a well regarded prospect. So, the cubs have 4 of the top 30 pitchers from last season and a ton of depth.

Where I would argue there is a difference is the cubs probably lack some top end but in terms of depth I'd imagine they are pretty unrivaled. Last season, the Royals had 2 starters over 2 fWAR. The cards had the best team in baseball and had Lackey(3.6), Martinez(3.4), Lynn(3.1), Garcia(2.8), and Wacha(2.3). You're swapping Lynn with Leake and Lackey with Wainwright. The mets had DeGrom(5.2), Harvey(4.4), Syndergaard(3.1), Colon(2.5) and no 4th guy over 1. If you assume Wheeler is in there with his 2014 form it was 2.5 fWAR though I'd doubt Colon keeps up that pace. They also still have Matz but who knows what he is yet. LA lost grienke and is rebuilding it's staff some. I mean i could go full out here but that covers the "best" teams

None of those guys did anything in the playoffs, so the regular season stats you guys keep quoting don't translate to the playoffs. It's a different brand of baseball when you're facing the same team in a best of 5 or 7. Your pitchers were not better than the Mets pitchers, which is why you got swept so easily.

 

[beckdawg]

None of those guys did anything in the playoffs, so the regular season stats you guys keep quoting don't translate to the playoffs. It's a different brand of baseball when you're facing the same team in a best of 5 or 7. Your pitchers were not better than the Mets pitchers, which is why you got swept so easily.

Pretty sure I said exactly this else where. I did briefly touch upon it with the lack of top end in the post. Basically I've said this for awhile now but the cubs have a great 162 game staff and might need some improvements to the playoff aspects. But then as I mentioned that's literally all they have to focus on in terms of trades. Also, I don't think the cubs pitching was the problem in the mets series. Their hitters didn't do anything. Other than Hammel think the other 3 averaged like 4 runs a game which is a bit higher than you would like but it wasn't terrible at all. the problem is they barely scored any runs. Obviously that's great for the mets pitching but you also have to place some blame on the cubs hitting.

 

[JimJohnson]

None of those guys did anything in the playoffs, so the regular season stats you guys keep quoting don't translate to the playoffs. It's a different brand of baseball when you're facing the same team in a best of 5 or 7. Your pitchers were not better than the Mets pitchers, which is why you got swept so easily.

Thix x 10000000000

 

[TC in Mississippi]

None of those guys did anything in the playoffs, so the regular season stats you guys keep quoting don't translate to the playoffs. It's a different brand of baseball when you're facing the same team in a best of 5 or 7. Your pitchers were not better than the Mets pitchers, which is why you got swept so easily.

None of that meant a hill of beans against KC who had a lesser pitching staff. Lester has a solid playoff record as does Lackey. Arrieta will get another chance in the playoffs most likely. On top of that they might add a guy before then. Most importantly though the playoffs are about matchups and the Cubs at that particular point in time didn't match up well against the Mets. The Royals won with decent starting pitching, great defense and timely hitting. The Giants won in 2014 with Bumgarnerand not much else backed by a very good ball club. Again, matchups matter when you look at overall composition of teams in the playoffs. Starting pitching is important but you're doing two things 1) Taking last year's playoff performances and projecting them to this year, as if that is always the case, and 2) Implying that the Cubs did nothing to improve the staff or the overall team which, of course isn't correct. As far as the Mets go I'm not even prepared to predict with confidence that they'll make the playoffs.

 

[beckdawg]

Most importantly though the playoffs are about matchups and the Cubs at that particular point in time didn't match up well against the Mets.

Is this even true anymore? Those who've been around here a long while know I've beat the drum for the cubs striking out too much for a long while. But when you add two high contact guys like Heyward and Zobrist it certainly helps. And while they are sort of replacing two guys that were some of the better guys at that(ie Fowler and Castro), it's still hard to argue that it's not a pretty big upgrade. Heyward is a slight offensive upgrade over Fowler but a massive defensive one. Zobrist is probably a massive OBP upgrade over Castro and possibly a defensive one if it was just a gimpy knee who hurt him last year.

Additionally, you're talking about another year of experience for all the young guys involved. And IIRC didn't Russell miss all of that series? In all honesty, I'm not even sure it was true last season so much as it just being the cubs hitting a bad stretch of hitting. They did sweep the regular season vs the Mets. Additionally, they were winning something ridiculous like 80% of their games the last 2 months of the season. Eventually that had to come down to earth. In the WC play in game basically it was only Fowler and Schwarber hitting. The other two series I know Soler hit well. I don't recall who else hit well though I know Schwarber had a HR in both the Mets and Cardinal series.

At the end of the day, we can have the hitting vs pitching in the playoffs debate but the cubs offense as presently constituted is so good that they legitimately can out hit any team save for maybe the crazy Bluejays last year. They just have to show up. And ultimately I think having 2 more guys with better than .350 OBP for their career will help with that as it gives them 5 of their 8 position players to go with Rizzo Bryant and Schwarber. And that's before we say one word about pitching. As great as Arrieta was last year he's never pitched in the playoffs to my knowledge. He might have with the O's but I can't imagine they had him on their active roster as bad he was there. And you've added Lackey who's had a ton of playoff experience.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Is this even true anymore? Those who've been around here a long while know I've beat the drum for the cubs striking out too much for a long while. But when you add two high contact guys like Heyward and Zobrist it certainly helps. And while they are sort of replacing two guys that were some of the better guys at that(ie Fowler and Castro), it's still hard to argue that it's not a pretty big upgrade. Heyward is a slight offensive upgrade over Fowler but a massive defensive one. Zobrist is probably a massive OBP upgrade over Castro and possibly a defensive one if it was just a gimpy knee who hurt him last year.

Additionally, you're talking about another year of experience for all the young guys involved. And IIRC didn't Russell miss all of that series? In all honesty, I'm not even sure it was true last season so much as it just being the cubs hitting a bad stretch of hitting. They did sweep the regular season vs the Mets. Additionally, they were winning something ridiculous like 80% of their games the last 2 months of the season. Eventually that had to come down to earth. In the WC play in game basically it was only Fowler and Schwarber hitting. The other two series I know Soler hit well. I don't recall who else hit well though I know Schwarber had a HR in both the Mets and Cardinal series.

At the end of the day, we can have the hitting vs pitching in the playoffs debate but the cubs offense as presently constituted is so good that they legitimately can out hit any team save for maybe the crazy Bluejays last year. They just have to show up. And ultimately I think having 2 more guys with better than .350 OBP for their career will help with that as it gives them 5 of their 8 position players to go with Rizzo Bryant and Schwarber. And that's before we say one word about pitching. As great as Arrieta was last year he's never pitched in the playoffs to my knowledge. He might have with the O's but I can't imagine they had him on their active roster as bad he was there. And you've added Lackey who's had a ton of playoff experience.

I agree with you. That's why I said "at that particular point in time" I'd be a lot more comfortable going up against the Mets now.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I agree with you. That's why I said "at that particular point in time" I'd be a lot more comfortable going up against the Mets now.

Yep. The Cubs at least on paper matchup better at this point. I feel pretty comfortable that Cespedes will eturn to his career numbers and not those of catching fire last off-season. I also feel really comfortable, as in 100%, in saying that Murphy won't have as good of a series for the Mets this season.

 

[JimJohnson]

I also feel really comfortable, as in 100%, in saying that Murphy won't have as good of a series for the Mets this season.

I finally agree with you on something