Yu Darvish on the move?

[knoxville7]

Sorry to rain on your parade, but you aren't in a position to tell me I am just being contrarian for contrarian sake. Oh the strawmen Jed bootlickers have posted here. No one has stated he is worth what Snell got. Trevor Bauer is a fucking FA and irrelevant to the discussion. Snell brought back 2 top ten prospects to the Rays. Darvish should have brought back 1 top ten out of the Padres system. That isn't much to ask out of the 4 they received in return that one is a top ten. That isn't putting him at the same level as Snell either.

The Rays got 2 top ten prospects. The Cubs got zero, including guys who haven’t ever played one damn MiLB game.

then why bring up what snell got the rays? You were basically comparing the two hauls and claimed the cubs should of gotten more as if Yu has similar value to snell. Which he obviously doesn’t. So again, you brought up the haul snell got as a comparison...for what purpose?

 

[CSF77]

Snell is younger.

Better?

2016: Snell 1.8 fWAR Darvish 2.8
2017: Snell 1.8 fWAR Darvish 3.7
2018:Snell 4.8 fWAR Darvish .3
2019: Snell 2.7 fWAR Darvish 2.6
2020: Snell .6 fWAR Darvish 3.0

12.4 fWAR Darvish. 11.7 Snell
Snell's max IP is 180. So he has not yet broke 200 IP in a season. Last time Darvish did is 2013. Age is the biggest factor going into this. Value. Well it is right there in plain view.

Considering Preller did both deals they relate. Jed said that he got the best return that Preller would give up. So it was under market and Jed instead went after volume of 45 grade prospects vs getting a 55 grade one.

I'm pretty sure that Jed could have got Weathers who is grade 50 but choose the volume approach instead.

I don't agree with it but seeing how Jed had to settle you know that his hand was forced going in. Right now 40 man commit is 134M. So ya it was a payroll cut for sure.

 

[Parade_Rain]

then why bring up what snell got the rays? You were basically comparing the two hauls and claimed the cubs should of gotten more as if Yu has similar value to snell. Which he obviously doesn’t. So again, you brought up the haul snell got as a comparison...for what purpose?

Hilarious.

 

[Parade_Rain]

We'll see. Im somewhere in the middle on this trade. But to be honest any trade for prospects is a question mark until you see what the guys turn into at the big league level.

It is. All prospects don’t work out for one. And one of the reasons I am not in the middle at the moment is that it was definitely a salary dump. Did Hoyer hold out to get the biggest haul possible for Yu or was a deal rushed just to get a trade done? I tend to think it’s the latter.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

11. Owen Caissie
17. Yeison Santana

Cubs Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

While we didn't get one top ten from SD, we did improve ours quite well by adding two top 20. I would thikn that is a good haul for Yu.

 

[CSF77]

11. Owen Caissie
17. Yeison Santana

Cubs Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

While we didn't get one top ten from SD, we did improve ours quite well by adding two top 20. I would thikn that is a good haul for Yu.

Basically Precidio #10. SS. He should be at the same level as Howard in A ball.

Precidio is a SH and 6'4. Howard 6'2. So I would put Precidio at 3B and have him add body mass as he has the height for it.

Santana I would make my 2B. 5'11 RH hitter.

Mena has a 55 arm and a 60 field. Size 6'3. Start him in RF. He has the skill set for it.

Owens has a stronger arm 60 but less glove. 50. LF for sure.

So that is how I would set up MB this year.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

11. Owen Caissie
17. Yeison Santana

Cubs Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

While we didn't get one top ten from SD, we did improve ours quite well by adding two top 20. I would thikn that is a good haul for Yu.

All 4 of the san Diego prospects were added into our top 20

 

[Steve_A]

Did you all see the interview Yu did on NOWVOICE?

He shed tears and thanked the Chicago writers for being supportive during the hard years he had here.

He also said a bit earlier that he might retire after his tenure with the Cubs showing how much he's grateful and how much he loved the team.

Solid human being and will be missed here.

Hope he continues his excellence in San Diego.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Ah. So the prospects weren’t top ten in Pads, but make the top twenty in the Cubs farm. That doesn’t indicate anything solid about the trade. It indicates how bare the cupboard is in the system.

 

[beckdawg]

Ah. So the prospects weren’t top ten in Pads, but make the top twenty in the Cubs farm. That doesn’t indicate anything solid about the trade. It indicates how bare the cupboard is in the system.

I get where you're coming from but I think you're being slightly too harsh on this trade. I also think people are down on this trade for the wrong reasons. Talking about where these players rate on a prospect list is really pointless for 2 reasons. The first is most of the typical scouting places haven't had eyes on guys in over a year because of covid. It's entirely possible that young guys have put on a lot of good weight since they were last seen and will come into next year with a different look and since they haven't been seen by your typical public scouts they are just ranked too low.

The second reason talking about prospect rankings is fruitless in this regard is that the premise of those rankings is age grants more certainty. There's a lot of 20 year olds in the top 100 lists but few teenagers. This is an extreme example but Tatis Jr was traded at 18 and was thought of more along the lines of the guys in this trade.

My point here is when talking about players this young you shouldn't worry about where they rank. You should worry about tool potential because that's ultimately what you are buying when you go after 18 year olds. There are only 2 or 3 prospects in the minors with a 55 grade hit tool and a 60 grade raw power who can play 3B. Preciado is one of them and he's a switch hitter. Mena is a very toolsy CF prospect. Caissie i've read some mixed reports on his defense but he's got big power and a pretty good arm. There's questions on his hit tool and he may end up in LF rather than RF which would hurt him but it's hard to say exactly what he is when he's yet to play pro ball. Santana's not as toolsy as these guys based on the reports I've read but basically everyone thinks he's a good SS defensively and while they don't rave about his tools, the guy has raked in the pro ball he has played.

Long story short, I don't think that who they got is the right conversation to be having. Like end of the day, they got the best players they felt they could and to argue different is just dumb. The conversation to be had is more about 2 things. The first is whether or not you should target players this young. The idea behind that being this signals more of a longer term rebuild vs getting someone who can be an impact sooner. I think the second conversation is more of a meta one where you talk about stuff we don't entirely know about. In a vacuum, Darivsh probably should be worth more than they got. But that ignores the situation where teams like cincy are trying to trade Sonny Gray and Tampa just traded Snell as well. Clearly there are a lot of finical concerns in baseball right now. Could they have held on to Darvish until july and got more? Are they really that hard up for cash that they needed to do this? Tough to say on some of these questions because we just don't know.

 

[CSF77]

Well said. It is a good point on the grade > ranking. Ranking is subjective. Grade is hard fact.

 

[CSF77]

I've had time to digest things and I am fine with the deal. They got 4 guys with upside that will be in A ball with Howard. That is a big deal if they pan out and develop. I would fix them in to their respective positions now and let them polish their games over the next 4 years. That would be the next core. 2025-2031.

What matters now is 2021-2024. That is Biden's term basically and a whole bunch of stuff can happen in a 4 year term as we have seen.

We know year 1 will be losing a core and more turn over. Year 2 will be a bunch of payroll to play with. Their top 2 prospects ready to join the team. Year 3-4 is the question. Will it be tanking using payroll to flip for system depth or adding legit talent and using the system for trade bait.

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth, it's probably not right comparing the Darvish trade to the Snell trade. Entirely different circumstances. I think a better comparison would be the Tigers trading Verlander to Houston. Detroit got back Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers and had to throw in a sorta crummy PTBNL. At that time fangraphs had a 50 grade on Perez, a 45 on Cameron and a 40 on Rogers. So, the cubs getting Santana who had a 45 in the most recently updated 2020 fangraphs ratings, Preciado who had a 40+ and has already been indicated will be in the top 100 for them when ratings are done, a 40 in Mena and a 35+ in Caissie is not that different.

You can argue that Caratini also added some value to the Darvish trade. You can also argue that Verlander's 2017 with Detroit and a 3.82 ERA made him less valuable though then again the year prior he was 5th in cy young voting and 2 years prior was 2nd and 17th in MVP voting. Verlander was making more money but Detroit paid down $16 mil of the remaining $122 mil making his aav $26.5 mil compared to the $19.7 mil aav darvish is set to make before you factor in cash the cubs sent which afaik no one has said how much.

Either way, it's not a crazy amount of difference especially with Preciado getting more positive buzz than the rankings would indicate. He's likely a similar value to Perez. Santana and Cameron are similar. Rogers and Mena are similar. And Caissie basically becomes the value for Caratini

 

[knoxville7]

Lol @ those that are finally realizing the trade wasn’t all that bad, after they **** about it for a day or two. Welcome to reality

 

[knoxville7]

Lol @ those that are finally realizing the trade wasn’t all that bad, after they **** about it for a day or two. Welcome to reality

@Parade_Rain clearly still salty AF over it

 

[Parade_Rain]

@Parade_Rain clearly still salty AF over it

You must be a real lovable loser fan. Only someone with their head stuck up ownership ass would be really gleeful about the less than stellar trade haul that might have two of those prospects ever making it to Wrigley, let alone becoming part of a core. If Davies pitches his ass off so Hoyer can make a deadline trade bringing back a future Arrieta and Strop, the current trade with the Padres will have exceeded expectations.

 

[knoxville7]

You must be a real lovable loser fan. Only someone with their head stuck up ownership ass would be really gleeful about the less than stellar trade haul that might have two of those prospects ever making it to Wrigley, let alone becoming part of a core. If Davies pitches his ass off so Hoyer can make a deadline trade bringing back a future Arrieta and Strop, the current trade with the Padres will have exceeded exceeded expextations.

lol yeah, sure. You’re the same person that if the cubs had kept Yu, would be bitching if/when the cubs were losing next year and not trading Yu away...you’d be complaining, why aren’t they trading him for prospectZ?! You’d be complaining, dey hav 2 trade hum whilst he stihl haz valyu! You just would complain no matter how they handled their aging star pitcher.

in reality, 2020 has changed what aging superstars on big contracts are worth in trade value. This is what Yu could net them, deal with it. You don’t have to like it, but understand that’s really the best haul Yu could net the cubs currently. Nobody is taking on salary outside of the padres so far. This is baseballs reality in 2020

 

[CSF77]

I doubt that he is in the keep Yu bubble. He is in the Yu was worth a better return and Jed settled on a lesser return to facilitate.

For me it is great for 2025. But how about not sucking for a Presidential term to get good. How about putting on your big boy pants and not being scared to fund a winning product.

I get how Tom did it the first time. New owner. Had to rehab the joint. But right now? **** that. He owes it to Chicago to fund a winning product because that is the cost of a ticket at the Box. Not this well we don't know if there will be fans and yes there are oh already did it enjoy your $12 dog and $20 beer. Who is that on 3B? Never mind that drink up.

 

[CSF77]

reality, 2020 has changed what aging superstars on big contracts are worth in trade value. This is what Yu could net them, deal with it. You don’t have to like it, but understand that’s really the best haul Yu could net the cubs currently. Nobody is taking on salary outside of the padres so far. This is baseballs reality in 2020

No

2020 scared owners and we are seeing stupid monkeys flinging poo.

They fling Arbitration poo.

They fling heavy contract poo.

They run away from high price poo.

That is this off-season because monkey owners do not want to eat poo.

 

[CSF77]

There was a reason why Theo bailed and said I need a year off. This shit needs to pass and no thanks. Watching a bunch of GM's scrambling and making stupid mistakes right now because owners are scared of loosing their ass.

No one wants to be involved with it. When you see the lowest MLB payroll that lost the WS looking to dump anything over 10M AAV... Ya it is comical