2012 Free Agents: Who do the Cubs go after?

[poodski]

Considering that Rolen and Edmonds are just about HOF-worthy...

Edmonds was on the downside of his career. He was 36.

Rolen yeah he was good, but his 126 OPS+ wasn't great. Still outside of those three being good the rest of the team was awful.

I mean it was 3 very good players and old Edmonds and a bunch of garbage.

 

[Rice Cube]

Edmonds was on the downside of his career. He was 36.

Rolen yeah he was good, but his 126 OPS+ wasn't great. Still outside of those three being good the rest of the team was awful.

I mean it was 3 very good players and old Edmonds and a bunch of garbage.

In your scenario, you will have to hope that the Cubs sign Prince Fielder, and that the rest of the NL Central will suck worse (i.e. no one else gets close to 83 wins). How likely do you think this will happen next year? Other than throwing armor trucks full of money at him, how likely do you think you can convince Prince Fielder to come to Chicago? Let's say Prince is a 5-6 win player at worst. How many wins do you have to scrounge up from the rest of the roster and from the free agents that can realistically be signed post-Fielder?

 

[FirstTimer]

It also helped that they got the one good season Chris Duncan had to offer and used it.

If I'm the Cubs, or the fanbase, trying to rationlize being close to a WS or being able to win a WS based on the 2006 St Louis Cardinals deciding to get hot right when the playoffs start isn't really an organizational model I want to follow.

Also in fairness to the Cardinals at the time they consistantly put themselves into the playoffs around that time. Those 2004 and 2005 Cardinals teams were very very good.(averaged 101 wins) As much as there isn't any empircal data to support it my feelign is that if you keep shoving yourself into the playoffs year after year with quality players eventually the breaks will go your way.

Hell, Detroit pitching ha trouble simply throwing to first base at times in that series and having an "out of nowhere" Wainright show up at the back end of the bullpen doesn't show up in the overall stats or metrics either. Jeff Weaver turning into his younger brother for the entire playoffs doesn't show up as well.

 

[FirstTimer]

Also in reference to the 2005 White Sox I'm not sure it's fair to group them with that Cardinals squad.

The White Sox lineup was much better top to bottom. The pitching was far superior overall, especially in the bullpen where you had crazy good years out fo guys like Cotts, Hermanson, "out of nowhere" Jenks, etc. AND that White Sox team was wire to wire one of the best teams in baseball. They didn't really sneak up on anyone come playoff time either. They had been a very good team all year.

 

[poodski]

In your scenario, you will have to hope that the Cubs sign Prince Fielder, and that the rest of the NL Central will suck worse (i.e. no one else gets close to 83 wins). How likely do you think this will happen next year? Other than throwing armor trucks full of money at him, how likely do you think you can convince Prince Fielder to come to Chicago? Let's say Prince is a 5-6 win player at worst. How many wins do you have to scrounge up from the rest of the roster and from the free agents that can realistically be signed post-Fielder?

Well realistically we win what 70 games this year? Perhaps a few more if Wells starts to pitch like Wells and if we get Cashner back.

Full season of them probably makes us a 75 win team. Which is about what I pegged this team going into the season. Fielder then makes us 500.

Replacing CF with Jackson most likely gives us another couple wins over the garbage we have had in CF so lets say 83 wins.

Replacing Barney with a decent 2B platoon is another win.

Castro should continue to get better. So another win.

Realistically that puts us I would say in the 84-88 win range. Which is competitive. It's not the favorite by any means, but it moves us in the right direction at least, and with even more coming off in 2013 (Demp, Zambrano) we can make more moves.

2012 we should be competitive, and 2013 we should be real contenders. I think its a very similar situation to 2007 and 2008. 2007 we only made the playoffs because of a weak division. 2008 was the much better team. I don't expect to make the playoffs next year, but I do in 2013.

 

[DewsSox79]

Well realistically we win what 70 games this year? Perhaps a few more if Wells starts to pitch like Wells and if we get Cashner back.

Full season of them probably makes us a 75 win team. Which is about what I pegged this team going into the season. Fielder then makes us 500.

Replacing CF with Jackson most likely gives us another couple wins over the garbage we have had in CF so lets say 83 wins.

Replacing Barney with a decent 2B platoon is another win.

Castro should continue to get better. So another win.

Realistically that puts us I would say in the 84-88 win range. Which is competitive. It's not the favorite by any means, but it moves us in the right direction at least, and with even more coming off in 2013 (Demp, Zambrano) we can make more moves.

2012 we should be competitive, and 2013 we should be real contenders. I think its a very similar situation to 2007 and 2008. 2007 we only made the playoffs because of a weak division. 2008 was the much better team. I don't expect to make the playoffs next year, but I do in 2013.

wow. lots of guessing and throwing numbers around hoping they will stick. jesus christ.

 

[poodski]

It also helped that they got the one good season Chris Duncan had to offer and used it.

If I'm the Cubs, or the fanbase, trying to rationlize being close to a WS or being able to win a WS based on the 2006 St Louis Cardinals deciding to get hot right when the playoffs start isn't really an organizational model I want to follow.

Also in fairness to the Cardinals at the time they consistantly put themselves into the playoffs around that time. Those 2004 and 2005 Cardinals teams were very very good.(averaged 101 wins) As much as there isn't any empircal data to support it my feelign is that if you keep shoving yourself into the playoffs year after year with quality players eventually the breaks will go your way.

Hell, Detroit pitching ha trouble simply throwing to first base at times in that series and having an "out of nowhere" Wainright show up at the back end of the bullpen doesn't show up in the overall stats or metrics either. Jeff Weaver turning into his younger brother for the entire playoffs doesn't show up as well.

No ones using it as rationalize anything I just stated that it has happened. The NL Central is much better now and no way it works that way again. Just was saying its happened.

Also in reference to the 2005 White Sox I'm not sure it's fair to group them with that Cardinals squad.

The White Sox lineup was much better top to bottom. The pitching was far superior overall, especially in the bullpen where you had crazy good years out fo guys like Cotts, Hermanson, "out of nowhere" Jenks, etc. AND that White Sox team was wire to wire one of the best teams in baseball. They didn't really sneak up on anyone come playoff time either. They had been a very good team all year.

It was much better but still very average. There were no holes, but really other than Konerko, and Dye (somewhat) that lineup had no one to fear.

Though Carl Everett scares the shit out of me for things completely unrelated to baseball.

And as I said their pitching was far better than ours is.

 

[poodski]

wow. lots of guessing and throwing numbers around hoping they will stick. jesus christ.

A great rebuttal. Let the big boys talk. Thanks.

Your posts are getting very close to trolling. Though reporting the staff member of the year is probably useless.

 

[FirstTimer]

No ones using it as rationalize anything I just stated that it has happened. The NL Central is much better now and no way it works that way again. Just was saying its happened.

Then why even bring them up to begin with, if regardless of it happening you feel/know that "no way it works again" in context of this discussion with the Cubs getting Fielder.

Seems like an incredibly useless piece of information to point out in a rebuttle of someone who is discussing the possible Fielder signing when even you admit it doesn't matter.

It was much better but still very average. There were no holes, but really other than Konerko, and Dye (somewhat) that lineup had no one to fear.

Everett had a good season. Pods was good at the top of the lineup, Crede had moments etc.

But that's not the point anyways...

Bringing up the 2006 Cardinals and then segwaying a few posts later to the 2005 White Sox, one of the top teams in baseball, for that entire season seems like a non starter.

 

[DewsSox79]

A great rebuttal. Let the big boys talk. Thanks.

Your posts are getting very close to trolling. Though reporting the staff member of the year is probably useless.

yeah im trolling

Is it because I disagree with your homerism? did i touch a nerve? I said before it is ok to be a homer, just dont get so sensitive when people disagree with you.

 

[FirstTimer]

yeah im trolling

Is it because I disagree with your homerism? did i touch a nerve? I said before it is ok to be a homer, just dont get so sensitive when people disagree with you.

Worship the VORP!

 

[Rice Cube]

Well realistically we win what 70 games this year? Perhaps a few more if Wells starts to pitch like Wells and if we get Cashner back.

Full season of them probably makes us a 75 win team. Which is about what I pegged this team going into the season. Fielder then makes us 500.

Replacing CF with Jackson most likely gives us another couple wins over the garbage we have had in CF so lets say 83 wins.

Replacing Barney with a decent 2B platoon is another win.

Castro should continue to get better. So another win.

Realistically that puts us I would say in the 84-88 win range. Which is competitive. It's not the favorite by any means, but it moves us in the right direction at least, and with even more coming off in 2013 (Demp, Zambrano) we can make more moves.

2012 we should be competitive, and 2013 we should be real contenders. I think its a very similar situation to 2007 and 2008. 2007 we only made the playoffs because of a weak division. 2008 was the much better team. I don't expect to make the playoffs next year, but I do in 2013.

Probably will have to wait for the projections to come out before making any broad statements like that. If this team was only projected for 75-79 wins at best pre-injury, and next year they're a year older and suckier, plus losing a few pieces here and there...it might end up being expensive to plug all those holes.

Plus we don't even know the debt situation or whether they really can spend like crazyfolks again. I know people think the Cubs don't have a revenue problem, but the empty seats, lost concessions...those speak otherwise. They might be able to sign Fielder, but building a team around him and whatever kids make it out of spring training...that's the tough part.

Power lefty bat is good though, but I think the expense is too high for the reward when you put it all in context.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Captain Obvious seems not to realize that the players that he is relying on to bolster the offense around Fielder are getting older, are injury-prone, are inconsistent, and are probably on the decline if not already. Jim Hendry is a bit of an idiot but even he wouldn't try to bring Ramirez back. Sometimes players just fall off a cliff. It'd be very hard to contend with this "core" unless Castro starts hitting for even more power (he still has the potential since he's only 21) and the other guys play out of their minds. Otherwise you're talking about a team full of slow singles-hitters who don't know how to take a walk...and that basically means zero protection for Fielder in the lineup.

Yes, they are getting older. However, aging one year is not going to see a significant decline. Okay, let's say Hendry doesn't bring back Ramirez. Who plays 3rd?? To say that this would be a team full of singles hitters is a bit ridiculous. The only singles hitter is Barney. Soriano is still above average with his bat. Soto is above average with his bat. Brett Jackson can be average to above average with his bat. Fukudome/Byrd are above average. Castro is above average. Ramirez can be above average... & Barney sucks. I don't see how a team of above average players means zero production.

You have too much faith in these guys, Castro is the only one with potential.


Soriano has been a huge disappointment as a Cub........and my god what the hell are you talking about regarding Ramirez?!?!?! He CANNOT carry a team. He proved that when Derrek Lee went down with that wrist injury in 2006!!



Back to Sosa for a second, Sosa still hit 30+ HR's in both 2003 and 2004 with 103 RBI's in '03 and 80 RBI's in '04. Clearly not as dominating as his numbers from 1997-2002 but he had a better supporting cast in 2003 with Alou, Ramirez, Lofton, Grudzielanek and Karros. He had an even better cast in 2004 with Derrek Lee, Garciaparra, Michael Barrett and Todd Walker and no playoff appearance that year.


The Cubs need a well rounded team not just a superstar, if they can sign a superstar and still be willing to put a solid cast around him, then I'm all in (no pun intended White Sox fans). Fielder would not have a solid cast around him with guys like Soto, Soriano and the 2011 version of Aramis Ramirez.

I agree, Castro is pretty much the only one with potential. However, that doesn't mean the rest of the team doesn't have talent.

I'm sorry that Soriano has been a disappointment to you. That doesn't change the fact that he has been very good for us and his ability to carry the team for a week at a time.

I never said that Ramirez should be relied on, but he has the ability to carry this team. Plus, why are you using 06 as an example? We were terrible in 06 with or without Lee we were going to suck.

Why are Soto, Soriano, and non-2011 Ramirez not solid? I agree that 2011 Ramirez sucks. However, I really don't think that that will continue. That being said, he better not be back for 16 million or I will be one pissed off sailor.

They have money to spend sure, it isnt going to be 120 million like what poodski says. Recent information has come out about the state of the ownership, I have broken down all sectors of his finances that are known to the public. Il have the charts done in about 3 days or so.

And when you buy a business you are not automatically in debt.

And wow, you are one of the biggest kool aid drinking homers around. Wow! if you think that surrounding fielder with Soriano,Soto, and Ramirez is a good thing and an instant contender you are delusional and once again will be kicked in the nuts by the cubs when they dont win.

thats just saying the cubs will get fielder which I will bet they wont. Just like they didnt get peavy, brian roberts (twice) and Adam dunn. You sir are one of those fans that the ricketts will love, it is too bad you are so young and dont have a lot of money because you would be the idiot going out there spending your money on something that isnt real.

If the Cubs were in such a bad situation, wouldn't MLB take over, like they did with the Dodgers?

What is bad with surrounding Fielder with Soriano, Soto, and Ramirez? I never said that made us instant contenders so quit putting fucking words in my mouth, bro.

Just like how we got Garza, and Soriano, and Fukudome. That's a two way-pointless street you're going down.

Yeah buddy, I would go spend my money to watch them lose. Kudos to you making a terrible assumption!

one superstar and a handful of average players does not make a title contender. or even a division contender for that matter. the Cubs need more help than just a Prince.

Except the supporting players sans Barney are above average... so yeah, there's that.

 

[nwfisch]

Power lefty bat is good though, but I think the expense is too high for the reward when you put it all in context.

That. Look at Crawford, Dunn and Adrian Gonzalez. They're great players and Gonzalez is playing out of his mind right now, but with contracts, they'll never live up to the dollar amount they make.

If the Cubs sign anyone to a 5-10 year contract, it only makes them worse in the long haul, especially if the money is backloaded.

 

[FirstTimer]

I'm sorry that Soriano has been a disappointment to you. That doesn't change the fact that he has been very good for us

:rofl:


His first two seasons were decent enough but the last three, outside of a few bright spots, have been pretty underwhelming. Especially for a guy this team was supposed to be built around. I'm not sure I'd label that as "very good."

If the Cubs were in such a bad situation, wouldn't MLB take over, like they did with the Dodgers?

.

Dewy isn't sayign they are in terrible shape. Just saying they aren't in good enough shape to go $120 million in payroll. That's not the same thing as saying they are bad enough to where MLB needs to step in.

 

[Rice Cube]

We can actually sort them by wRC+ and see who's average. I think 100 is average, so let's check it out:

Cubs

This is a small sample being that we've only played about a third of the season, but not that many guys are "above average". Reed Johnson and Jeff Baker haven't had a lot of plate appearances so their numbers are skewed, and I'd bet a bag of chips they don't end the season batting .367 or whatever. Carlos Zambrano is a good hitting pitcher but if you're relying on a pitcher to be one of your offensive stars, well...

Kosuke Fukudome has little power even though he gets on base a bunch and I'd be surprised if the Cubs bring him back next season particularly if Brett Jackson and maybe even Tyler Colvin if he wakes up need spots in the OF. Alfonso Soriano is up there pretty much because of his power; he couldn't get on base otherwise. Byrd, Castro and Pena are barely above average. Aramis Ramirez, mostly due to his power outage and slumps, is below average. Pena won't be back if they really want to sign Fielder, and Ramirez shouldn't be brought back. Byrd should be traded to make room in the OF unless he's willing to shift to RF.

With aging and decline, even if Castro's ability improves, the others will drag down the team offensive output. This is a very bad offense. Building around a bad offense is asking for fail.

 

[Captain Obvious]

:rofl:


His first two seasons were decent enough but the last three, outside of a few bright spots, have been pretty underwhelming. Especially for a guy this team was supposed to be built around. I'm not sure I'd label that as "very good."



Dewy isn't sayign they are in terrible shape. Just saying they aren't in good enough shape to go $120 million in payroll. That's not the same thing as saying they are bad enough to where MLB needs to step in.

His first year he was a top 10 player in baseball. A little better than decent enough. He has still be a top 10 LFer the last 3 years. Has he lived up to his contract? Absolutely not. However, that doens't mean he hasn't been a good or very good player for us.

If we aren't in good enough shape to spend 120 on payroll next year, why were we able to spend it this year?

We can actually sort them by wRC+ and see who's average. I think 100 is average, so let's check it out:

Cubs

This is a small sample being that we've only played about a third of the season, but not that many guys are "above average". Reed Johnson and Jeff Baker haven't had a lot of plate appearances so their numbers are skewed, and I'd bet a bag of chips they don't end the season batting .367 or whatever. Carlos Zambrano is a good hitting pitcher but if you're relying on a pitcher to be one of your offensive stars, well...

Kosuke Fukudome has little power even though he gets on base a bunch and I'd be surprised if the Cubs bring him back next season particularly if Brett Jackson and maybe even Tyler Colvin if he wakes up need spots in the OF. Alfonso Soriano is up there pretty much because of his power; he couldn't get on base otherwise. Byrd, Castro and Pena are barely above average. Aramis Ramirez, mostly due to his power outage and slumps, is below average. Pena won't be back if they really want to sign Fielder, and Ramirez shouldn't be brought back. Byrd should be traded to make room in the OF unless he's willing to shift to RF.

With aging and decline, even if Castro's ability improves, the others will drag down the team offensive output. This is a very bad offense. Building around a bad offense is asking for fail.

I bet you're right, they don't end the season hitting the way that they have. No one is relying on Z to do anything on offense, that is just so random, I have no idea if you're trying to make a point or what.

Getting on base is what this team needs. I'll be surprised if Kosuke isn't back next year, at least as a 4th OFer.

This really isn't a very bad offense at all, with Fielder. It's a team of above average players. That's not going to get you very far, but with Fielder, it completely changes the way that this team is structured.

 

[poodski]

Rice you should really be looking at in comparison to their position.

sOPS+ does a good job of that.

 

[FirstTimer]

His first year he was a top 10 player in baseball.

:rofl:

By what measure?

He barely cracks the top 10 in stat catagories, wasn't in the Top 10 for MVP voting, etc.


Soriano's Top 10's that season and his place(NL Only):

SLG%: 10th
Total Bases: Tied 8th
HR's: Tied 8th
XBH: 6th
Power-Speed #: 8th
AB/HR: 10th

He wasn't even top 10 in OPS.



I remind you again...that's just on the NL side of things and doesn't even begin to bring pitchers into the equation.


Name your top 10 players from that 2007 season. Where does Soriano slot in? And what's the reasoning?

If we aren't in good enough shape to spend 120 on payroll next year, why were we able to spend it this year?

New ownership officially taking hold, dropped attendence, etc.

Like I've said before. If the Cubs went to $120 I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not saying that I think they can't or won't. I just don't think they should.

I was just trying to clarify that I think Dewy isn't saying the team is near bankruptcy or going into collection, just that(based on the info he says he has seen) that they aren't in position to go to $120.

I'd have to let Dewy answer the rest of that as he apparently has seen certain numbers.

 

[DewsSox79]

:rofl:

By what measure?

He barely cracks the top 10 in stat catagories, wasn't in the Top 10 for MVP voting, etc.


Soriano's Top 10's that season and his place(NL Only):

SLG%: 10th
Total Bases: Tied 8th
HR's: Tied 8th
XBH: 6th
Power-Speed #: 8th
AB/HR: 10th

He wasn't even top 10 in OPS.



I remind you again...that's just on the NL side of things and doesn't even begin to bring pitchers into the equation.


Name your top 10 players from that 2007 season. Where does Soriano slot in? And what's the reasoning?


New ownership officially taking hold, dropped attendence, etc.

Like I've said before. If the Cubs went to $120 I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not saying that I think they can't or won't. I just don't think they should.

I was just trying to clarify that I think Dewy isn't saying the team is near bankruptcy or going into collection, just that(based on the info he says he has seen) that they aren't in position to go to $120.

I'd have to let Dewy answer the rest of that as he apparently has seen certain numbers.

exactly right.

I doubt they will fold up shop at this point.

Economic projections are the same as Prospect Projections, they are what they are, projections. At the time of purchase projections for the economy were not great for the following few years, but when it all panned out it was worse than expected. As this point in time all the projections have the economy hitting rock bottom first before a slow rise. Can the projections be wrong? yep. But do you take a chance spending millions upon millions hoping that people will still show up and buy shit? hell no. Businesses right now are cutting back everything and even taking small losses so that they do not get to a point where they arent taking small losses anymore but are out of business. Basically in a nutshell, being conservative in any business is the best way to go for the future of the business. The strong and intelligent ones will survive, the greedy will not.

So 120 million is not out of the question I guess, but I dont see it happening if Tom is looking at the full picture. I do however respect his dad a little bit more and believe if anything he is going to have major say in what goes on. Toms comments about people not coming to games because they cannot afford it blew me away.

Why the MLB isnt stepping in? Too early to jump on a new owner, but do NOT think one of the bread and butter teams from a business standpoint for the MLB is not going to be monitored.