2013 MLB Draft Thread: Cubs with #2 pick

[Rice Cube]

And likely spent most of their draft budget on guys who will never see the majors. That is the reality of the way the draft works.

Like I have said, I'd rather have seen them spend most of their draft budget on the best player available and a player that has a much, much, much better chance of making the majors and making an impact in the majors.

The whole rebuilding plan has been about putting all the teams eggs in the farm system basket, so why not put all the eggs of the 2012 draft into the basket of Appel??

5 of the top 7 picks last year were HS kids who likely have less than a 10% chance of even making it the bigs.

The facts show that even with Almora being rushed into the top 100 prospect rankings leaves about a 15% chance of him being a quality major league player.

So chances are pretty good that the Cubs will end up with nothing to show from all that 'smart' spending.

That goes for every team. But someone has to be producing the Pujolses and Longorias and CCs and (etc etc) so it's not like it's a fool's errand either. It's always been a numbers game with baseball.

 

[KBisBack!]

And hence why I've, repeatedly, said the Cubs should take him this year where it doesn't mean sacrificing virtually their entire draft.

I will sacrifice rounds 2-10 all day to get the best player in the draft in round 1.

There is not much chance that any of those picks in rounds 2-10 make significant contributions anyway, so it isn't a great sacrifice in the first place.

Just draft college seniors and offer them all $100k each. That gives you most, if not all your draft pool to get the best player.

 

[KBisBack!]

That goes for every team. But someone has to be producing the Pujolses and Longorias and CCs and (etc etc) so it's not like it's a fool's errand either. It's always been a numbers game with baseball.

Pujols was a 13 or 14th round draft pick, and was signed for a $60k signing bonus. So he would not have crushed a draft budget in the new rules.

Longoria was the #3 overall pick and CC was the #20 overall pick. It isn't like it was a numbers game with them. They were the best players available at that pick.

 

[dabynsky]

And likely spent most of their draft budget on guys who will never see the majors. That is the reality of the way the draft works.

Like I have said, I'd rather have seen them spend most of their draft budget on the best player available and a player that has a much, much, much better chance of making the majors and making an impact in the majors.

The whole rebuilding plan has been about putting all the teams eggs in the farm system basket, so why not put all the eggs of the 2012 draft into the basket of Appel??

5 of the top 7 picks last year were HS kids who likely have less than a 10% chance of even making it the bigs.

The facts show that even with Almora being rushed into the top 100 prospect rankings leaves about a 15% chance of him being a quality major league player.

So chances are pretty good that the Cubs will end up with nothing to show from all that 'smart' spending.

I will sacrifice rounds 2-10 all day to get the best player in the draft in round 1.

There is not much chance that any of those picks in rounds 2-10 make significant contributions anyway, so it isn't a great sacrifice in the first place.

Just draft college seniors and offer them all $100k each. That gives you most, if not all your draft pool to get the best player.

Because one arm injury and there goes an entire draft class. Look we've been through this over and over again. Here was the choice take Appel and no one of actual importance or take another high level talent in the first round and a bunch of other high upside guys in the first 10 rounds. The Cubs, along with the other teams before them, choose the latter strategy. If Almora and just one of the other guys make it to the big leagues they will be right. If they swung and missed on all of those guys and Appel is a front line guy for five-ten years then they blew it. Only time will tell, but you can't sit here and say that it was cheapness that governed the choice here when the Cubs spent nearly every penny possible on the draft in 2012 without it costing them their first non-protected pick.

 

[KBisBack!]

Because one arm injury and there goes an entire draft class.

And one hand injury to Almora and there goes your entire draft class.

Again, in probably 90% of the draft classes, if your first round pick busts, there goes an entire draft class.

In baseball, way more times than not your draft hinges on the first round pick. Why not pick the best player available in the first round?

 

[dabynsky]

And one hand injury to Almora and there goes your entire draft class.

Again, in probably 90% of the draft classes, if your first round pick busts, there goes an entire draft class.

In baseball, way more times than not your draft hinges on the first round pick. Why not pick the best player available in the first round?

It would be a huge blow if Almora suffered a career ending, or derailing, injury, but that is just it there are still legitimate prospects that were drafted last year. There are a number of intriguing arms that while not guys that are likely to be that true number 1 starter could play a huge role in the Cubs future. I know you want to dismiss out of hand the possibility that these guys can contribute, but the Cubs have far more chances of developing talent if they give themselves more than just one chip to play with in a draft. So again it would be a huge blow if Almora went down but that is still pretty different to your scenario of a draft being made up of organizational filler guys on the day they were drafted.

 

[KBisBack!]

It would be a huge blow if Almora suffered a career ending, or derailing, injury,

Um, he already has suffered a derailing injury. He has still yet to play in real game action this season so that already puts him at least a month behind in this critical development period.

We all saw how much a wrist injury hindered D. Lee who was already an established major league hitter who had won a batting title.

I know you want to dismiss out of hand the possibility that these guys can contribute, but the Cubs have far more chances of developing talent if they give themselves more than just one chip to play with in a draft

No, I don't want to just dismiss the possibility that these guys can contribute.

I just choose to look at it realistically and factually and understand there is very little chance that these guys will become quality major league players.

So again it would be a huge blow if Almora went down but that is still pretty different to your scenario of a draft being made up of organizational filler guys on the day they were drafted.

Well you can blow bubbles and wish on rainbows all you like, but the reality of the situation and draft is that most of the guys drafted in rounds 2-10 will be nothing but organizational filler.

Again, if the team is going to completely throw away major league seasons in order to stock the farm system, it is smarter to stock it with the best player in the first round.

There is probably not a huge difference in the lottery tickets the Cubs got in rounds 2-10 and if they had taken all 4th year college pitchers and offered them the minimum.

In fact I provided a scenario where the Cubs could have offered Appel at least $6M last year and still paid Pierce Johnson what he got and then had the minimum $100k left to offer the rest of the first 10 rounds.

 

[Boobaby1]

Um, he already has suffered a derailing injury. He has still yet to play in real game action this season so that already puts him at least a month behind in this critical development period.

We all saw how much a wrist injury hindered D. Lee who was already an established major league hitter who had won a batting title.



No, I don't want to just dismiss the possibility that these guys can contribute.

I just choose to look at it realistically and factually and understand there is very little chance that these guys will become quality major league players.




Well you can blow bubbles and wish on rainbows all you like, but the reality of the situation and draft is that most of the guys drafted in rounds 2-10 will be nothing but organizational filler.

Again, if the team is going to completely throw away major league seasons in order to stock the farm system, it is smarter to stock it with the best player in the first round.

There is probably not a huge difference in the lottery tickets the Cubs got in rounds 2-10 and if they had taken all 4th year college pitchers and offered them the minimum.

In fact I provided a scenario where the Cubs could have offered Appel at least $6M last year and still paid Pierce Johnson what he got and then had the minimum $100k left to offer the rest of the first 10 rounds.

Speaking of rounds 2-10, if Hunter Dozier is still around, I would like to see the Cubs go after this guy. He is very intriguing in my opinion. 3B, tall, good power, good arm, soft hands. Sounds like my wife except for the soft hands. LOL

 

[chibears55]

pull a coach ditka and trade away an entire draft for rickey williams..

 

[dabynsky]

Um, he already has suffered a derailing injury. He has still yet to play in real game action this season so that already puts him at least a month behind in this critical development period.

We all saw how much a wrist injury hindered D. Lee who was already an established major league hitter who had won a batting title.

Almora suffered a Hamate bone injury that is actually relatively common. He has already played in a rehab game and is working his way back. Pablo Sandoval suffered through the same injury last year and we see how much it has hindered him.

No, I don't want to just dismiss the possibility that these guys can contribute.

I just choose to look at it realistically and factually and understand there is very little chance that these guys will become quality major league players.

Players from those rounds becoming meaningful contributers on big league rosters. One only has to look at major league rosters to find guys from all over the draft on them. If you mean the chance is small in the since that all prospects chances are small then sure. But this idea that you are doing nothing to the long term health of your organization moving those picks from small chance to zero chance of contributions is silly.

Well you can blow bubbles and wish on rainbows all you like, but the reality of the situation and draft is that most of the guys drafted in rounds 2-10 will be nothing but organizational filler.

Again, if the team is going to completely throw away major league seasons in order to stock the farm system, it is smarter to stock it with the best player in the first round.

There is probably not a huge difference in the lottery tickets the Cubs got in rounds 2-10 and if they had taken all 4th year college pitchers and offered them the minimum.

In fact I provided a scenario where the Cubs could have offered Appel at least $6M last year and still paid Pierce Johnson what he got and then had the minimum $100k left to offer the rest of the first 10 rounds.

This is where the difference in the debate lies and why it is likely to continue going round and round. You see no difference between guys like Eddie Orozco are Steven Peraskilis (spelling is probably off on those two guys, but that will probably be the last time any of us look at those names anyway) compared to Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, Josh Conway, etc. You are right that it is certainly possible that none of those guys from Blackburn down make the big leagues, but I like the chances of those guys a lot more than the college seniors with no upside.

 

[KBisBack!]

pull a coach ditka and trade away an entire draft for rickey williams.

Only no one said to trade away the entire draft.

Other than that, great contribution.

 

[dabynsky]

Only no one said to trade away the entire draft.

Other than that, great contribution.

That isn't what you have been saying when you say the Cubs should have taken Appel last year? I thought you have been pretty clearly arguing that you should take best player available at the expense of the rest of the draft every time.

 

[chibears55]

Only no one said to trade away the entire draft.

Other than that, great contribution

no sense of humor i see.. geeesh

 

[KBisBack!]

Almora suffered a Hamate bone injury that is actually relatively common. He has already played in a rehab game and is working his way back. Pablo Sandoval suffered through the same injury last year and we see how much it has hindered him.

Well I correctly pointed out that Almora has yet to play in REAL games.

And again, Sandoval is an established major league hitter, not a kid out of HS trying to start his first full year of professional baseball.

Not even close to the same situation.

Players from those rounds becoming meaningful contributers on big league rosters. One only has to look at major league rosters to find guys from all over the draft on them. If you mean the chance is small in the since that all prospects chances are small then sure. But this idea that you are doing nothing to the long term health of your organization moving those picks from small chance to zero chance of contributions is silly.

What is silly is you changing what was said.

When did I say they had zero chance? Never?? Didn't think so.

When did I say that they should forfeit the rest of their picks? Never?? Didn't think so.

Did I say use rounds 2-10 to draft 4 year college players who probably have the same exact chances of contributing to the organization as a bunch of HS players? Yep.

This is where the difference in the debate lies and why it is likely to continue going round and round. You see no difference between guys like Eddie Orozco are Steven Peraskilis (spelling is probably off on those two guys, but that will probably be the last time any of us look at those names anyway) compared to Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, Josh Conway, etc. You are right that it is certainly possible that none of those guys from Blackburn down make the big leagues, but I like the chances of those guys a lot more than the college seniors with no upside.

And exactly why would college seniors have no upside? Well other than it fits your agenda.

I guess if college seniors have no upside, missing out on Pierce Johnson last year (college senior) wouldn't have been as huge a loss as you are saying it would be.

6 of the 12 picks in the first 10 rounds last year were college seniors with apparently no upside.

 

[KBisBack!]

That isn't what you have been saying when you say the Cubs should have taken Appel last year? I thought you have been pretty clearly arguing that you should take best player available at the expense of the rest of the draft every time.

I have said very clearly to draft college seniors in rounds 2-10, not trade away the picks or forfeit the picks.

I have said take the best player available and then select players in rounds 2-10 that might have a half percentage worse chance of making it to the majors than some high school lottery ticket.

If the HS kids taken in rounds 4-5 were as great as some agendas want them to be, they would be first round draft picks.

 

[Jntg4]

The cubs have slightly more than 10.55 million to play with this year for the draft bonus with top 10 picks, more than the 7.9 they had last year. There is no excuse. Houston has 11.7, so I really dont see them being cheapskates either.....but if the prophet Keith Law says Houston will try to spend less, then he is never wrong. It is written. :fap:

Still will be no excuse to pass on the current most dominant college pitcher for 2 years now......even if Houston does try to make a deal with Grey.....

I was trying to suggest that maybe that is why Houston would pass on Appel, not that I think we should.

 

[Jntg4]

Well I correctly pointed out that Almora has yet to play in REAL games.

And again, Sandoval is an established major league hitter, not a kid out of HS trying to start his first full year of professional baseball.

Not even close to the same situation.





What is silly is you changing what was said.

When did I say they had zero chance? Never?? Didn't think so.

When did I say that they should forfeit the rest of their picks? Never?? Didn't think so.

Did I say use rounds 2-10 to draft 4 year college players who probably have the same exact chances of contributing to the organization as a bunch of HS players? Yep.




And exactly why would college seniors have no upside? Well other than it fits your agenda.

I guess if college seniors have no upside, missing out on Pierce Johnson last year (college senior) wouldn't have been as huge a loss as you are saying it would be.

6 of the 12 picks in the first 10 rounds last year were college seniors with apparently no upside.

So the injury is another situation and will hurt Almora's ability to recover more because he's not an established MLB vet?

 

[KBisBack!]

So the injury is another situation and will hurt Almora's ability to recover more because he's not an established MLB vet?

People were pointing out that established hitters had the same injury and it didn't hurt their production.

I pointed out that an injury, that has already cost Almora a month of real game time, can have his development slowed by both the missed time and the injury as he isn't an established major league hitter.

 

[mountsalami]

I give my wife such a pounding during the first round. That the other rounds are meaningless, while her hands remain soft and are far from over-worked.

 

[patg006]

People were pointing out that established hitters had the same injury and it didn't hurt their production.

I pointed out that an injury, that has already cost Almora a month of real game time, can have his development slowed by both the missed time and the injury as he isn't an established major league hitter.

Can we also take into account Pablo Sandival has over 4 years of MLB service and consistency while Almora hasnt taken a swing of a bat at Daytona and is still covered in pimples? Or does that not fit someone's agenda? Because I wont push it if it doesnt fit..... :marshmallow: