Draft Notes: Gray, Appel
By Tim Dierkes [April 18, 2013 at 1:08pm CST]
The 2013 Rule 4 draft takes place on June 6th, with the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, and Indians taking the first five picks. You can check out the full draft order here. The latest draft info:
6-foot-4, 240 pound Oklahoma righty Jonathan Gray is shooting up draft boards. ESPN's Keith Law had him eighth on March 14th, but now has him as the clear number two player behind another college righty, Stanford's Mark Appel. Gray, who hit 101 in several recent games according to scouts who talked to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, was drafted by the Royals in the 13th round in 2010 and the Yankees in the 10th round in 2011, and now projects to go very early in the 2013 draft. Oklahoma head baseball coach Sunny Golloway told ESPN's Teddy Mitrosilis, "He's going to Houston or the Cubs, No. 1 or No. 2."
Appel is "still clearly the best player in this draft," in the eyes of Law. Law wonders if the Astros or Cubs can "try to work out a deal less than the recommended bonus number but more than the figure Appel turned down from the Pirates last year ($3.8 million), with the carrot of a big league callup in September if he throws well after signing." Appel is an advisee of the Boras Corporation.
Prep outfielder Austin Meadows, college lefty Sean Manaea, and prep righty Kohl Stewart are the next three players on Law's draft board, which is ranks players by talent and upside and is not a mock draft.
I would believe with this point of view that Jonathan Gray hits the Cubs.
Jonathan Gray, P, Oklahoma
College Junior
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
HT/WT: 6'5"/245
Birthdate: 11/5/91 Age at Draft: 21.72
Each year there are a couple guys who fly up draft charts. I usually am skeptical of players like this but Gray is an exception. Gray has already been drafted twice: in the 13th round out of high school by the Tigers and the 10th round after his first year at Eastern Oklahoma JC by the Yankees.
He has always been a big guy. He was 6'4", 240 in high school and had a fastball that could touch 94 at that point. In junior college he was up to 97 but still needed mechanical work to gain command of his fastball and improve his secondary pitches.
Well, that has happened. The fastball can now hit 101and sits 96-98. He works in the 94-95 range out of the stretch and hits 94 more when he's taking something off the fastball to get it across the plate. It tails aggressively in towards right handed batters on occasion but it isn't consistent movement. It's an 80 pitch.
His hard curveball/slider, whatever you want to call it, sits 86-88 MPH. He overuses it. I can understand why. It is a plus-plus pitch but I am concerned that it could be an issue if he gets too reliant on it. I didn't see a change from him at all. He didn't need one. I'm sure he will be able to develop one, even if it is average or tick below, it will do what he needs as a starter, playing off of that fastball.
His steady progression, not a quick increase of 7 MPH over a summer, leads me to believe his improvement is for real and will continue going forward.
Looking at his stuff, he is a top of the rotation guy. Not a #2 or 3 but a true #1. He pounds the strike zone, he works inside and out. He has good downhill plane on his stuff.
On the negative side, he isn't a great athlete. He is a big, strong guy who will need to work hard to keep in top shape and make sure he doesn't get too bulky to restrict flexibility as well. Physically, he is in the Roger Clemens/Curt Schilling mold. If his mechanics fall out of sync, he could lose command quickly. He needs to continue to improve his consistency.
Gray could go #1 to the Houston Astros. Considering they will likely be in the running for #1 overall again next season, a future rotation of Gray and Carlos Rodon could be making an impact in the majors as soon as 2015. That's what Houston needs. If they don't take him, there is no chance he makes it out of the top five.
