2014 DRAFT CHAT

[theberserkfury]

Really like him. Converted 3B means low millage and he has control out there. Seems like a natural to me.

Exactly what I was thinking... and it seems like he still has a lot to learn about pitching itself which bodes well...

 

[Captain Obvious]

I don't get why everyone thinks that Castro is automatically getting traded. I've said for years that he's a good 7 hole hitter and that's what he is. On this team he has to hit higher because we have no offense. The last 3 seasons there have been 30 seasons of 3+ wins out of SSs. Castro has 2 of those seasons. If he can bounce back this year and be a 3 win SS, I don't see that we can complain about that. The odds of Bryant, Baez, and Alcantara all ending up being 3+ win players is low. Even if they do, you can always put Baez at 3B and Bryant in RF. I just don't get the Castro hate.

As far as the draft goes, I am interested to see what the plan is. Going under slot twice, they have to have something up their sleeve. I like the picks so far, though. I don't love them, but I think they project well into major leaguers.

 

[DewsSox79]

I don't get why everyone thinks that Castro is automatically getting traded. I've said for years that he's a good 7 hole hitter and that's what he is. On this team he has to hit higher because we have no offense. The last 3 seasons there have been 30 seasons of 3+ wins out of SSs. Castro has 2 of those seasons. If he can bounce back this year and be a 3 win SS, I don't see that we can complain about that. The odds of Bryant, Baez, and Alcantara all ending up being 3+ win players is low. Even if they do, you can always put Baez at 3B and Bryant in RF. I just don't get the Castro hate.

As far as the draft goes, I am interested to see what the plan is. Going under slot twice, they have to have something up their sleeve. I like the picks so far, though. I don't love them, but I think they project well into major leaguers.

and Rantoul still loves using WAR as the only non stat to form his opinion. old habits never change, the stupid never get smarter.


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[Captain Obvious]

and Rantoul still loves using WAR as the only non stat to form his opinion. old habits never change, the stupid never get smarter.


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using Tapatalk

Champaign now. I'm really moving up in the world.

Offensively, there have been 27 .320+ wOBA seasons, Castro has two of them. 19 .750 OPS seasons. Castro has two of them.

Defensively, he does an adequate job. He certainly isn't at the top, but he does alright. I just don't see why you or anyone else wants to trade him. Although I'm open to hearing what you have to say about the matter.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't get why everyone thinks that Castro is automatically getting traded. I've said for years that he's a good 7 hole hitter and that's what he is.

I think you answered your own question there. Castro seems to have a pretty limited upside. Some have suggested he can be more of a 20-25 HR SS soon. I'm not entirely convinced of that but even if he is I'm not sure he's a great fit for their likely future lineup. On a lot of teams, having that sort of power out of SS would be great. However, between Soler, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Schwarber now you have numerous 30+ HR potential types. What they lack is speed and the high on base you'd expect out of typical lead off hitters. Castro honestly doesn't have plus speed anymore(only attempted 2 steals this year). That's also before you consider the fact that Alcantara and Almora also have decent power given their likely positions. So while nice, it's not something you have to have.

Alcantara is a better combination of speed/power and potentially OBP if he starts walking at a similar rate to last year. He however doesn't have the defense to play SS and is thus stuck as a 2B. SS carries a premium on it and thus is more valuable in trades. The real question is whether or not Baez has enough defensive chops to stick at SS. If he does and if Alcantara and him are the players they are hyped to be they are likely better players out of the middle infield. And while you could in theory play Baez at 3B and Bryant in the OF, that pushes a likely very good offensive player into a position that typically already has good offense. A 30 HR Baez at SS is potentially an MVP candidate. A 30 HR Baez at 3B while good is hardly as rare. In other words, you're basically supplanting a corner outfielder with Castro offensively. For that to work out favorably, Castro needs to either be as good offensively or good enough that his defense at SS makes the difference which at this point is questionable.

Some people are more adamant about trading him than I am at this moment. I've long said that what I would do is move him over to 2B and have him and Alcantara battle it out until one proves to be a clear cut winner. If that is Alcantara, then you consider a trade. But if you're asking why I would trade him that's simple. I think unlike some other players, we've already seen the best Castro has to offer at 24. He may add more power but he's already lost a the little plus speed he had. And he's at best a .340 OBP hitter which is starter caliber but far from irreplaceable. Castro's biggest problem in my eyes is that he's an offense first shortstop who is going to hit 6-8 in most any decent line up. If he gave you above average defense with that then great. But he's only had one year with a positive UZR/150. And while not a total liability there, he's at best average.

Ultimately, it's quite likely they will end up with better options there assuming Baez sticks at SS. Even if Alcantara fails, the way Bruno has played at 2B in AA makes him likely enough of a prospect to warrant consideration down the line. And you also have the possibility of Villanueva or Calendario moving to 2B if 3B is blocked. And while Castro is a good player, if he can net an equal level pitcher or potentially better, it's likely that is a better fit for the cubs.

 

[2323]

I can see the game moving back to what it was like before the steroid era was full-blown. During the steroid era, teams felt it was imortant to squeeze as much offense as possible at all spots on the field, even with a big drop off in defense. With the steroid testing, you're no longer seeing 9 hole hitters hitting 20+ HRs. I can see defense up the middle once again becoming more important. Castro is kind of in no mans land here. His defense doesn't rise to that level. Quite honestly, neither does his offense relative to his overall offense relative to his defense.

The thing is, one of the reasons cited for firing Sveum was him being thrown under the bus for Castros non-performance. So they hire Renteria with the idea in mind he can get more out of Castro by coddling him in Spanish. So it seems unlikely they'll trade Castro.

 

[CSF77]

Simply put:

Alcantara in Iowa: .267/.301/.519 8 HR/10 SB. SH
Baez .215/.279/.401 7 HR 7 SB

If Baez was not struggling right now I'm guessing he would be on the team right now. Super 2 cut off is past. He has not dominated Iowa year and that is what he needs to prove.

Alcantara is giving what Bonifacio is giving to the Cubs right now.

Honestly I could see Alcantara promoted in July to back fill Bonifacio being traded then Baez brought up in Sept. Then Castro traded to the Yanks in the offseason with Olt.

Yanks lack depth at 3B and are losing Jeter at SS. They are a team with a real need going into 2015. The Cubs could get Manny and 1-2 quality arms in return for Olt and Castro.

So IMO his trade value would peak in the off season with Jeters retirement. His value is less right now.

Bonifacio plays 2B/3B/SS/CF. Super sub. He fills do many roles his value will peak for a play off push team.

 

[brett05]

Champaign now. I'm really moving up in the world.

La Bamba!!!

 

[SilenceS]

My head hurts. Yet again, you are projecting players who arent even doing well at their levels. Almora is hitting like shit and has 5 WALKS in 200 plus bats. Alcnatara is striking out over 25% of the time and walking at a 5% clip. Baez still hasnt come completely out of his early season slump. Also, he is still an error machine that even if he could play short will most likely not be there for long. He is going to lose a step the bigger he gets. Soler cant stay on the field and seems to have a bit of an attitude problem with things. Bryant still has a tremendous K rate and no one knows if he can stay at third. People are getting way to ahead of themselves.

Castro hasnt peaked and this year has showed it. He is on a 20 home run pace with his ISO being the best of his career as well as his walk rate and slg are the highest of his career. He is doing this with a .294 BABIP which is extremely low for him. He is also on pace for 40 plus doubles and is on pace to strike out under a 100 times. If there comes a time to trade Castro because we have better options then I am for it. To talk about trading him now is just crazy talk to me.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I think you answered your own question there. Castro seems to have a pretty limited upside. Some have suggested he can be more of a 20-25 HR SS soon. I'm not entirely convinced of that but even if he is I'm not sure he's a great fit for their likely future lineup. On a lot of teams, having that sort of power out of SS would be great. However, between Soler, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Schwarber now you have numerous 30+ HR potential types. What they lack is speed and the high on base you'd expect out of typical lead off hitters. Castro honestly doesn't have plus speed anymore(only attempted 2 steals this year). That's also before you consider the fact that Alcantara and Almora also have decent power given their likely positions. So while nice, it's not something you have to have.

Alcantara is a better combination of speed/power and potentially OBP if he starts walking at a similar rate to last year. He however doesn't have the defense to play SS and is thus stuck as a 2B. SS carries a premium on it and thus is more valuable in trades. The real question is whether or not Baez has enough defensive chops to stick at SS. If he does and if Alcantara and him are the players they are hyped to be they are likely better players out of the middle infield. And while you could in theory play Baez at 3B and Bryant in the OF, that pushes a likely very good offensive player into a position that typically already has good offense. A 30 HR Baez at SS is potentially an MVP candidate. A 30 HR Baez at 3B while good is hardly as rare. In other words, you're basically supplanting a corner outfielder with Castro offensively. For that to work out favorably, Castro needs to either be as good offensively or good enough that his defense at SS makes the difference which at this point is questionable.

Some people are more adamant about trading him than I am at this moment. I've long said that what I would do is move him over to 2B and have him and Alcantara battle it out until one proves to be a clear cut winner. If that is Alcantara, then you consider a trade. But if you're asking why I would trade him that's simple. I think unlike some other players, we've already seen the best Castro has to offer at 24. He may add more power but he's already lost a the little plus speed he had. And he's at best a .340 OBP hitter which is starter caliber but far from irreplaceable. Castro's biggest problem in my eyes is that he's an offense first shortstop who is going to hit 6-8 in most any decent line up. If he gave you above average defense with that then great. But he's only had one year with a positive UZR/150. And while not a total liability there, he's at best average.

Ultimately, it's quite likely they will end up with better options there assuming Baez sticks at SS. Even if Alcantara fails, the way Bruno has played at 2B in AA makes him likely enough of a prospect to warrant consideration down the line. And you also have the possibility of Villanueva or Calendario moving to 2B if 3B is blocked. And while Castro is a good player, if he can net an equal level pitcher or potentially better, it's likely that is a better fit for the cubs.

I personally don't care about the speed aspect. When he was stealing bases, he was only successful about 2/3 times. You need ~80% for it to be worth it.

I also get what you're saying, but why is it a bad thing if Baez isn't an MVP? If he does win an MVP award, then we have to pay him more. The way I am looking at it is that we have 8 spots, let's get the best bats that we can in there. But then I am thinking about this more and a lot of Castro's value comes from the positional and league replacement. I guess I want to know that we will have good players taking over first. But, I do want to get Castro's value up if we do trade him. If he becomes a platoon or part time player, I don't think that will help raise his stock.

 

[corey]

My head hurts. Yet again, you are projecting players who arent even doing well at their levels. Almora is hitting like shit and has 5 WALKS in 200 plus bats. Alcnatara is striking out over 25% of the time and walking at a 5% clip. Baez still hasnt come completely out of his early season slump. Also, he is still an error machine that even if he could play short will most likely not be there for long. He is going to lose a step the bigger he gets. Soler cant stay on the field and seems to have a bit of an attitude problem with things. Bryant still has a tremendous K rate and no one knows if he can stay at third. People are getting way to ahead of themselves.

Very well said.

 

[brett05]

My head hurts. Yet again, you are projecting players who arent even doing well at their levels. Almora is hitting like shit and has 5 WALKS in 200 plus bats. Alcnatara is striking out over 25% of the time and walking at a 5% clip. Baez still hasnt come completely out of his early season slump. Also, he is still an error machine that even if he could play short will most likely not be there for long. He is going to lose a step the bigger he gets. Soler cant stay on the field and seems to have a bit of an attitude problem with things. Bryant still has a tremendous K rate and no one knows if he can stay at third. People are getting way to ahead of themselves.

Castro hasnt peaked and this year has showed it. He is on a 20 home run pace with his ISO being the best of his career as well as his walk rate and slg are the highest of his career. He is doing this with a .294 BABIP which is extremely low for him. He is also on pace for 40 plus doubles and is on pace to strike out under a 100 times. If there comes a time to trade Castro because we have better options then I am for it. To talk about trading him now is just crazy talk to me.

What if you get Alexei?

 

[SilenceS]

I personally don't care about the speed aspect. When he was stealing bases, he was only successful about 2/3 times. You need ~80% for it to be worth it.

I also get what you're saying, but why is it a bad thing if Baez isn't an MVP? If he does win an MVP award, then we have to pay him more. The way I am looking at it is that we have 8 spots, let's get the best bats that we can in there. But then I am thinking about this more and a lot of Castro's value comes from the positional and league replacement. I guess I want to know that we will have good players taking over first. But, I do want to get Castro's value up if we do trade him. If he becomes a platoon or part time player, I don't think that will help raise his stock.

He is top 10 in almost every offensive category. You dont have to worry about him platooning or becoming a part time player. See, people think because he has been in the league since he was 20 that he has no growing room. Well, Im glad no one told that to Roberto Clemente. The Pirates would have missed out on a hallf of fame player. Different players grow different ways. Castro was plucked out of the minors to young and had no fundamentals. He had to be re coached and Im willing to see the benefits.

 

[CSF77]

Castro hasnt peaked and this year has showed it. He is on a 20 home run pace with his ISO being the best of his career as well as his walk rate and slg are the highest of his career. He is doing this with a .294 BABIP which is extremely low for him. He is also on pace for 40 plus doubles and is on pace to strike out under a 100 times. If there comes a time to trade Castro because we have better options then I am for it. To talk about trading him now is just crazy talk to me.

Called sell at peak value.

I see his peak value in the offseason. That way they have a better feel for where Baez is at and if he is ready to take over SS in 2015.

I'm still seeing Baez promoted in Sept; unless he goes on a tear going into the all star game then all bets are off. Even so the biggest team need up coming is going to be on the Yanks post Jeter. Yes they could take Castro on now and have him play 2B or move Jeter over to 3B but the time of need for the Yaks will be in the off season.

2015 F/A
Second Basemen

Emilio Bonifacio (30)
Alexi Casilla (30)
Mark Ellis (38)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Chris Getz (31)
Tyler Greene (31)
Kelly Johnson (33)
Nick Punto (37) - $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250k buyout
Brian Roberts (37)
Ramon Santiago (35)
Rickie Weeks (32) – $11.5MM vesting option
Ben Zobrist (34) – $7.5MM club option with a $500k buyout

Shortstops

Mike Aviles (34) – $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Stephen Drew (32)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Tyler Greene (31)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
John McDonald (40)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) – $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Nick Punto (37) – club/vesting option
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Jimmy Rollins (36) – vesting/club/player option

Ramirez will be the top SS on the market. Yanks will be at 161 mil committed for 2015.
A-Roid will be back then.

Team biggest needs: SS post Jeter, 2B, SP. Tanaka they have CC at 23 mil, Kuroda a F/A. Nova Arb2. They have a true need for a #3. (Shark or Hammel)

This is a team the Cubs could trade parts with in general.

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs turned some heads by selecting Indiana catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber with the fourth overall pick, but scouting director Jason McLeod told reporters that Schwarber was No. 2 on the team’s draft board all along. ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers quotes McLeod (on Twitter) as saying that Schwarber trailed only Aiken on their board, though as the Chicago Sun Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer tweets, McLeod did acknowledge that the pick will save them some money. The Cubs are expecting him to sign quickly.

 

[SilenceS]

Called sell at peak value.

I see his peak value in the offseason. That way they have a better feel for where Baez is at and if he is ready to take over SS in 2015.

I'm still seeing Baez promoted in Sept; unless he goes on a tear going into the all star game then all bets are off. Even so the biggest team need up coming is going to be on the Yanks post Jeter. Yes they could take Castro on now and have him play 2B or move Jeter over to 3B but the time of need for the Yaks will be in the off season.

2015 F/A
Second Basemen

Emilio Bonifacio (30)
Alexi Casilla (30)
Mark Ellis (38)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Chris Getz (31)
Tyler Greene (31)
Kelly Johnson (33)
Nick Punto (37) - $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250k buyout
Brian Roberts (37)
Ramon Santiago (35)
Rickie Weeks (32) – $11.5MM vesting option
Ben Zobrist (34) – $7.5MM club option with a $500k buyout

Shortstops

Mike Aviles (34) – $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Stephen Drew (32)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Tyler Greene (31)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
John McDonald (40)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) – $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Nick Punto (37) – club/vesting option
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Jimmy Rollins (36) – vesting/club/player option

Ramirez will be the top SS on the market. Yanks will be at 161 mil committed for 2015.
A-Roid will be back then.

Team biggest needs: SS post Jeter, 2B, SP. Tanaka they have CC at 23 mil, Kuroda a F/A. Nova Arb2. They have a true need for a #3. (Shark or Hammel)

This is a team the Cubs could trade parts with in general.

I could understand trading them Hammel. But, you talk about peak value. You think Castro is only worth a guy who is coming back from Tommy John and had control issues before and a couple of throw ins. I would be fucking pissed if the Cubs even entertained that offer. Gary Sanchez is the only prospect I would care for because he could have a special bat as a catcher, but the rest of the Yankees farm are projects.

 

[JZsportsfan]

Another catcher for the Cubs

 

[brett05]

So what's the pitching plan???

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[SilenceS]

So what's the pitching plan???

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Stockpile bats then trade. I think its the consensus that the Cubs have the best power bats in the minors. They all arent going to be playing for the Cubs.

 

[brett05]

Stockpile bats then trade. I think its the consensus that the Cubs have the best power bats in the minors. They all arent going to be playing for the Cubs.

I disagree w the strategy

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