2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[CSF77]

You can't go back in Cubs history and talk about who spent for what. Different ownership, different front office. That being said I believe they will overpay to get Lester but if they don't land him they won't overpay to get Shields. I can't see them even getting into the Scherzer derby where Scott Boras has set the opening bell at 7 years/$230 million. The most likely scenario is that they get Lester and also sign a mid tier guy out of the bunch of Masterson, Liriano, Brandon McCarthy or Ervin Santana with McCarthy or Masterson being most likely due to the lack of qualifying offers. I think they'll make a run at Martin but unless his market value ends up less than what everyone thinks they won't land him. They're not going to give him 5 years/$75 mil I don't think but the money is there and I could be wrong. Now the entire thing changes if the Yankees are really going to stay out of the top 3 pitcher market. If that's the case all of Boras' Scherzer bluster of 7/$230 is wasted on deaf ears because only the Yankees would even start a conversation there. So if they're out and Scherzer could be had for 6 years $175 I think the Cubs could very well bid on both he and Lester landing at least one. Or they could still focus on Lester, let Boston or Texas grab Scherzer leaving Shields who I could see them looking at if he'd sign in the 4 years $85 mil range. Bottom line I think the Cubs are going to spend $60-$70 million maybe a little less the chips don't fall their way. They're never going to spend like Anaheim, LA or NY. I don't see the payroll exceeding $110 million this year and then holding steady at around $120 mil until the TV contract kicks in around 2019 at which time they'll be signing their own guys. Still $60 plus mil buys you guys. If you figure Lester will sign for about $26-$27 mil per, 2nd tier guys at $9-$11 per, Martin at about $13-$15 per then you can see a clear path to what they want to do. In the non-Yankees scenario they could sign Scherzer at $28 mil per and Shields at $20 per without batting an eye. You have to watch the guys with qualifying offers, the money involved and who's bidding on whom before you can get a clear picture but the Cubs will spend.

You ned to paragraph this out more. Hard to follow your line of reasoning with the points all jumbled in a big paragraph.

That said yes I agree target 1 is Lester. Back up plan is Shields. Scherzer I doubt they will but the Cubs have a few players under Boras right now so there is a connection going in place.

I would put it as: Lester. Max they go 150 mil. Shields no more than 60 mil 3 years. 3rd option would trade for Cole Hamels.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/cubs-to-pursue-russell-martin.html

Looks like they are going to go after Russell Martin. Cubs catchers ranked 4th from the bottom in fWAR so it appears they are going to target catcher as a primary need right now.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331

Martin ranked #6.
AJ # 82
Castillo #92.

 

[JimJohnson]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/cubs-to-pursue-russell-martin.html

Looks like they are going to go after Russell Martin. Cubs catchers ranked 4th from the bottom in fWAR so it appears they are going to target catcher as a primary need right now.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331

Martin ranked #6.
AJ # 82
Castillo #92.

If Cubs get Martin and Lester, I'll be one happy MOFO.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So it appears that Cleveland has interest in Edwin Jackson in a bad contract swap for Michael Bourn. With the small army of arms in place for the back end of the rotation and Maddon's talk of the need for more speed dod you make this deal, provided Bourn is relatively healthy? Both contracts expire in 2016. I take this deal in a hot minute. It beats having to eat Jackson's contract.

 

[brett05]

So it appears that Cleveland has interest in Edwin Jackson in a bad contract swap for Michael Bourn. With the small army of arms in place for the back end of the rotation and Maddon's talk of the need for more speed dod you make this deal, provided Bourn is relatively healthy? Both contracts expire in 2016. I take this deal in a hot minute. It beats having to eat Jackson's contract.

If he reaches 550 plate appearances his option for 2017 vests.

I think because of that you pass and keep EJax as your mop up spot starter.

 

[The Bandit]

You can't go back in Cubs history and talk about who spent for what. Different ownership, different front office. That being said I believe they will overpay to get Lester but if they don't land him they won't overpay to get Shields. I can't see them even getting into the Scherzer derby where Scott Boras has set the opening bell at 7 years/$230 million. The most likely scenario is that they get Lester and also sign a mid tier guy out of the bunch of Masterson, Liriano, Brandon McCarthy or Ervin Santana with McCarthy or Masterson being most likely due to the lack of qualifying offers. I think they'll make a run at Martin but unless his market value ends up less than what everyone thinks they won't land him. They're not going to give him 5 years/$75 mil I don't think but the money is there and I could be wrong. Now the entire thing changes if the Yankees are really going to stay out of the top 3 pitcher market. If that's the case all of Boras' Scherzer bluster of 7/$230 is wasted on deaf ears because only the Yankees would even start a conversation there. So if they're out and Scherzer could be had for 6 years $175 I think the Cubs could very well bid on both he and Lester landing at least one. Or they could still focus on Lester, let Boston or Texas grab Scherzer leaving Shields who I could see them looking at if he'd sign in the 4 years $85 mil range. Bottom line I think the Cubs are going to spend $60-$70 million maybe a little less the chips don't fall their way. They're never going to spend like Anaheim, LA or NY. I don't see the payroll exceeding $110 million this year and then holding steady at around $120 mil until the TV contract kicks in around 2019 at which time they'll be signing their own guys. Still $60 plus mil buys you guys. If you figure Lester will sign for about $26-$27 mil per, 2nd tier guys at $9-$11 per, Martin at about $13-$15 per then you can see a clear path to what they want to do. In the non-Yankees scenario they could sign Scherzer at $28 mil per and Shields at $20 per without batting an eye. You have to watch the guys with qualifying offers, the money involved and who's bidding on whom before you can get a clear picture but the Cubs will spend.

I made it through 3/4 of this post, and lost my spot, more commas, periods, and paragraphs please.... my eyes hurt. Agree with the numbers I saw though, good analysis, just needs better form.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...sted-in-edwin-jackson-on-a-bad-contract-swap/

Summary: there may be interest in a Bourn/Jackson swap.

If I'm the cubs and I can get that trade I make it. I'd hope that the Indians would eat a little money to make it even but if they don't I'd still make that trade. Bourn has 2 years plus an option year at $13.5, $14 mil and a vesting $12 mil option with 550 PAs in 2016. Jackson has 2 years at $11 mil each. UZR had him basically average in CF in 2013 and pretty crappy in 2014 though it's almost entirely based on his range and from my understanding he was dealing with some leg injuries. I don't think we're going to see that 6 fWAR 2012 again but for the sake of argument let's say he's the 2 fWAR 2013. That's worth roughly what he's making on the FA market and you're getting rid of a bad contract on your own. He'd arguably be a better version of what Bonifacio was to start the year and being left handed would be a plus. It would also free Alcantara up to play more of a utility role if they don't want to just stick him in LF. Alcantara hit like .244 vs lefties in this short stint so him and Coghlan wouldn't be a terrible LF platoon though I would prefer to see him get more playing time.

 

[czman]

So it appears that Cleveland has interest in Edwin Jackson in a bad contract swap for Michael Bourn. With the small army of arms in place for the back end of the rotation and Maddon's talk of the need for more speed dod you make this deal, provided Bourn is relatively healthy? Both contracts expire in 2016. I take this deal in a hot minute. It beats having to eat Jackson's contract.

I think Jackson will stink next year, but the following year when he is in his FA season he will magically pitch pretty well. I guess there is some value in holding out hope for that.

Bourn has never been a high OB guy either and he costs more.

Just let Jackson mop up this season and when he sees his change og making money in his next contract slipping away he will probably come back strong the following year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think Jackson will stink next year, but the following year when he is in his FA season he will magically pitch pretty well. I guess there is some value in holding out hope for that.

Bourn has never been a high OB guy either and he costs more.

Just let Jackson mop up this season and when he sees his change og making money in his next contract slipping away he will probably come back strong the following year.

Bourn's OBP used to be up in the mid 3's which would help, his speed on the base paths if healthy would also help and could tie in directly with Maddon's statements on speed the other day and most importantly there is absolutely no place for Jackson. Assuming they sign 1 TOR starter, say it's Lester, and one mid tier guy the rotation will be Lester, Arrieta, mid tier guy (Masterson, Liriano, Santana, Peavy, McCarthy), Kyle Hendricks and a #5 from the likes of Jacob Turner, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dan Strailey and Felix Doubront. My guess is that it's Wada or Turner, Wood gets packaged in a deal and Strailey and Doubront head to the bullpen. Doesn't leave any room for Jackson. Also the difference in the 2 contracts is a total of $5.5 million coming to the Cubs. I'd make the deal. Otherwise I think eventually they'll have to eat Jackson's contract, which isn't a lot but if Bourn could help you it would mitigate that.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I don't think it would be that bad if the Cubs swapped Swisher for Jackson. Although the Cubs wouldn't do it straight up. Jackson is owed $26 million over the next 2 years, while Swisher is owed $44 million over the next 3. Money or something else would need to be added for that to work, otherwise the Cubs would just be better off eating the entirety of the Jackson deal.

Dodgers need 1 SP, with their available resources there is essentially a 0% chance that it would be someone like Jackson.

Jackson is owed 22 million over the next 2 years. He received 8 million of the contract his first year as a bonus.

The deal includes an $8 million signing bonus with annual salaries of $11 million per year, according to a Cubs source.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/8803555/chicago-cubs-announce-deal-edwin-jackson

I'm not sure I would make the deal for Swish. 1B and RF are 2 positions we have down. He'd be an expensive DH/bench player.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Bourn's OBP used to be up in the mid 3's which would help, his speed on the base paths if healthy would also help and could tie in directly with Maddon's statements on speed the other day and most importantly there is absolutely no place for Jackson. Assuming they sign 1 TOR starter, say it's Lester, and one mid tier guy the rotation will be Lester, Arrieta, mid tier guy (Masterson, Liriano, Santana, Peavy, McCarthy), Kyle Hendricks and a #5 from the likes of Jacob Turner, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dan Strailey and Felix Doubront. My guess is that it's Wada or Turner, Wood gets packaged in a deal and Strailey and Doubront head to the bullpen. Doesn't leave any room for Jackson. Also the difference in the 2 contracts is a total of $5.5 million coming to the Cubs. I'd make the deal. Otherwise I think eventually they'll have to eat Jackson's contract, which isn't a lot but if Bourn could help you it would mitigate that.

I wouldn't take Swisher. I would take Bourn straight up.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I made it through 3/4 of this post, and lost my spot, more commas, periods, and paragraphs please.... my eyes hurt. Agree with the numbers I saw though, good analysis, just needs better form.

Yeah, sorry guys you're completely right. This is what happens when I type on an iPad.

 

[JZsportsfan]

If he reaches 550 plate appearances his option for 2017 vests.

I think because of that you pass and keep EJax as your mop up spot starter.

Cubs already have enough mop-up caliber pitchers. This would give the Cubs a good bench piece, for a guy who makes their team worse. Jackson had a -2.3 WAR, while Bourn had a 1.0 WAR. Not great for the contract, but that's still a big difference. This would crowd the Cubs OF bench spots with Ruggiano, Coughlan, and then Bourn. Would still do the move, maybe trade one of the other bench OF guys. Coughlan and Ruggiano can't really play CF which Bourn could fill in for

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It would seem that half of Cubs fandom is all a flutter over possible interest in Russell Martin while the other half isn't interested at all and through all of that the specter of Kyle Schwarber looms large. Now let me say this, at the right price/years I wouldn't mind Martin but he's not coming at that price or years so I'm not sure he makes any sense. What I really don't get are the people that see him as some kind of bridge to Schwarber. Am I crazy in that I don't see Schwarber ever being behind the plate for the Cubs? When he was drafted Theo and Jed downplayed the catching aspect and focused on him being the kind of left handed power hitter they had been looking for. The kid played hard last year, worked hard and convinced them that he deserved a look at catcher (supposedly what he would prefer to play) so he was allowed to skip the AFL and go to the instructional league to work on his catching skills. I have no idea how that went but I still have to believe with a bat like his that's supposedly very close to ready that he's going to have a very short leash at catcher. It would seem to be that it's more likely that he's the starting LF in Wrigley in 2016. I mean they need that left handed pop and if it's not Schwarber they'll have to go get it and there's no way he'll be ready to catch next year. From reading between the lines and listening to Theo and Jed this all seems pretty clear to me. Am I nuts here?

 

[brett05]

It would seem that half of Cubs fandom is all a flutter over possible interest in Russell Martin while the other half isn't interested at all and through all of that the specter of Kyle Schwarber looms large. Now let me say this, at the right price/years I wouldn't mind Martin but he's not coming at that price or years so I'm not sure he makes any sense. What I really don't get are the people that see him as some kind of bridge to Schwarber. Am I crazy in that I don't see Schwarber ever being behind the plate for the Cubs? When he was drafted Theo and Jed downplayed the catching aspect and focused on him being the kind of left handed power hitter they had been looking for. The kid played hard last year, worked hard and convinced them that he deserved a look at catcher (supposedly what he would prefer to play) so he was allowed to skip the AFL and go to the instructional league to work on his catching skills. I have no idea how that went but I still have to believe with a bat like his that's supposedly very close to ready that he's going to have a very short leash at catcher. It would seem to be that it's more likely that he's the starting LF in Wrigley in 2016. I mean they need that left handed pop and if it's not Schwarber they'll have to go get it and there's no way he'll be ready to catch next year. From reading between the lines and listening to Theo and Jed this all seems pretty clear to me. Am I nuts here?

Well...you are a Cub Fan. J/K

 

[Boobaby1]

You can't go back in Cubs history and talk about who spent for what. Different ownership, different front office. That being said I believe they will overpay to get Lester but if they don't land him they won't overpay to get Shields. I can't see them even getting into the Scherzer derby where Scott Boras has set the opening bell at 7 years/$230 million. The most likely scenario is that they get Lester and also sign a mid tier guy out of the bunch of Masterson, Liriano, Brandon McCarthy or Ervin Santana with McCarthy or Masterson being most likely due to the lack of qualifying offers. I think they'll make a run at Martin but unless his market value ends up less than what everyone thinks they won't land him. They're not going to give him 5 years/$75 mil I don't think but the money is there and I could be wrong. Now the entire thing changes if the Yankees are really going to stay out of the top 3 pitcher market. If that's the case all of Boras' Scherzer bluster of 7/$230 is wasted on deaf ears because only the Yankees would even start a conversation there. So if they're out and Scherzer could be had for 6 years $175 I think the Cubs could very well bid on both he and Lester landing at least one. Or they could still focus on Lester, let Boston or Texas grab Scherzer leaving Shields who I could see them looking at if he'd sign in the 4 years $85 mil range. Bottom line I think the Cubs are going to spend $60-$70 million maybe a little less the chips don't fall their way. They're never going to spend like Anaheim, LA or NY. I don't see the payroll exceeding $110 million this year and then holding steady at around $120 mil until the TV contract kicks in around 2019 at which time they'll be signing their own guys. Still $60 plus mil buys you guys. If you figure Lester will sign for about $26-$27 mil per, 2nd tier guys at $9-$11 per, Martin at about $13-$15 per then you can see a clear path to what they want to do. In the non-Yankees scenario they could sign Scherzer at $28 mil per and Shields at $20 per without batting an eye. You have to watch the guys with qualifying offers, the money involved and who's bidding on whom before you can get a clear picture but the Cubs will spend.

Thanks TC. You hit the nail on the head. You mentioned the domino affect as did I and how it could impact the Cubs very easily, thus, they may have to resort to a lesser pitcher ( I hope not) right now and gamble next year.

 

[Boobaby1]

Kershaw had a small sample size, Shields did not. If the Cubs want to sign 1 TOR and a mid-tier (Shields), fine. But to simply go out and sign Shields as the big name and let Lester/Scherzer go to other teams, would be a massive failure and Maddon would probably be asking himself what he just got himself into.

Well, it doesn't matter what Maddon thinks right now, as I am sure he is viewing the big picture, and to land the job, he had to be on the same page as the FO. The Cubs have been transparent about not altering their plan unless it fits. Getting into a bidding war does not fit right now.

That said, the Cubs (however great the odds would be) could potentially land Lester, and then make that HUGE splash and get Scherzer. That means that they would lose only the second round draft pick for Scherzer. This makes some sense and nails down the rotation for a long time. That may be the direction they choose.

But, like I said, it is hard enough to land one, let alone two, and I am tempering my emotions on it until it happens, IF it happens.

2015 is still an evaluation year, and pitching would most definitely help and actually give them a chance to make the playoffs if all the stars aligned.

Time will tell, and I want free agents to compliment as bad as the next guy, but I also don't want to derail a train that is starting to pick up steam either.

There are way too many variables that can happen via free agency or trade to speculate anything. The Cubs just finished in last place, so the ones that are going to have to be impactful are still the kids. Not so much the free agents.

 

[Boobaby1]

Bourn's OBP used to be up in the mid 3's which would help, his speed on the base paths if healthy would also help and could tie in directly with Maddon's statements on speed the other day and most importantly there is absolutely no place for Jackson. Assuming they sign 1 TOR starter, say it's Lester, and one mid tier guy the rotation will be Lester, Arrieta, mid tier guy (Masterson, Liriano, Santana, Peavy, McCarthy), Kyle Hendricks and a #5 from the likes of Jacob Turner, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dan Strailey and Felix Doubront. My guess is that it's Wada or Turner, Wood gets packaged in a deal and Strailey and Doubront head to the bullpen. Doesn't leave any room for Jackson. Also the difference in the 2 contracts is a total of $5.5 million coming to the Cubs. I'd make the deal. Otherwise I think eventually they'll have to eat Jackson's contract, which isn't a lot but if Bourn could help you it would mitigate that.

Maddon and the Cubs are looking to add speed, so this could have some legs to it.

 

[TL1961]

It would seem that half of Cubs fandom is all a flutter over possible interest in Russell Martin while the other half isn't interested at all and through all of that the specter of Kyle Schwarber looms large. Now let me say this, at the right price/years I wouldn't mind Martin but he's not coming at that price or years so I'm not sure he makes any sense. What I really don't get are the people that see him as some kind of bridge to Schwarber. Am I crazy in that I don't see Schwarber ever being behind the plate for the Cubs? When he was drafted Theo and Jed downplayed the catching aspect and focused on him being the kind of left handed power hitter they had been looking for. The kid played hard last year, worked hard and convinced them that he deserved a look at catcher (supposedly what he would prefer to play) so he was allowed to skip the AFL and go to the instructional league to work on his catching skills. I have no idea how that went but I still have to believe with a bat like his that's supposedly very close to ready that he's going to have a very short leash at catcher. It would seem to be that it's more likely that he's the starting LF in Wrigley in 2016. I mean they need that left handed pop and if it's not Schwarber they'll have to go get it and there's no way he'll be ready to catch next year. From reading between the lines and listening to Theo and Jed this all seems pretty clear to me. Am I nuts here?

You apologized for the post with one long paragraph, and then did it again?

OK, seriously...I don't think you're crazy to not expect Schwarber behind the plate. I don't think he'll be a C in the majors. I just can't see it.

 

[JimJohnson]

There are way too many variables that can happen via free agency or trade to speculate anything. The Cubs just finished in last place, so the ones that are going to have to be impactful are still the kids. Not so much the free agents.

I agree with what you're saying but the Cubs need to be prepared. Imagine the Cubs don't get any big name pitchers and the kids go nuts next season and hit the ball all around the place. They get to the first round of playoffs and then lose because they don't have any quality pitching (outside of Arriata) to help them advance. Then everyone is gonna be saying, "What the ****, why didn't we have any pitchers."

Theo needs to get Lester/Scherzer in a room and find out what they want in terms of money and club. Sell the hell out of the Cubs and Maddon. And then see what the players come back with. They need to get one of these guys.