2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[CSF77]

So it appears that Cleveland has interest in Edwin Jackson in a bad contract swap for Michael Bourn. With the small army of arms in place for the back end of the rotation and Maddon's talk of the need for more speed dod you make this deal, provided Bourn is relatively healthy? Both contracts expire in 2016. I take this deal in a hot minute. It beats having to eat Jackson's contract.

Done

 

[CSF77]

If Cubs get Martin and Lester, I'll be one happy MOFO.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/...could-lure-free-agents-to-cubs-this-offseason

Needs
The Cubs are in the market for another starting pitcher to join Jake Arrieta, Travis Wood, Wada and Kyle Hendricks, and will be linked early and often to the top free agents available. They'd also like to add some depth in the outfield and may be looking at an upgrade at catcher after Welington Castillo struggled offensively.
Potential targets
The Cubs are still negotiating a new television contract, which would presumably give Epstein's payroll a boost. They have payroll flexibility, and will be in discussions with the top free-agent pitchers on the market, including Max Scherzer and Jon Lester, as well as catcher Russell Martin. But Epstein has cautioned that they are looking at the next 15 months, not just this offseason, in terms of additions.

 

[CSF77]

Lets see:

Trade Jackson for Bourn. Lead off covered. LF covered.

Sign Martin making Castillo expendable.

Add 1 SP to Arrieta, Wood, Hendricks, Wada.

Looking at that mix Shields looks like he would be a prime target.

Arrieta, Shields, Wood, Hendricks, Wada.

Next year add Price
Price, Arrieta, Shields, Hendricks, Edwards.

Martin: Got a Q-offer tag on him. He should get at least 60 mil.
Shields I expect in the 60 mil range.

Combined they would cost 35 mil approx next year. It is doable.

Next year Price I would expect to get into the 200 mil zone and getting the pieces in place this year makes sense.

 

[chibears55]

Lets see:

Trade Jackson for Bourn. Lead off covered. LF covered.

Sign Martin making Castillo expendable.

Add 1 SP to Arrieta, Wood, Hendricks, Wada.

Looking at that mix Shields looks like he would be a prime target.

Arrieta, Shields, Wood, Hendricks, Wada.

Next year add Price
Price, Arrieta, Shields, Hendricks, Edwards.

Martin: Got a Q-offer tag on him. He should get at least 60 mil.
Shields I expect in the 60 mil range.

Combined they would cost 35 mil approx next year. It is doable.

Next year Price I would expect to get into the 200 mil zone and getting the pieces in place this year makes sense.

If their big additions this off season are bourn, martin, and shield you can expect an 85-90 lost season easy...

 

[JZsportsfan]

If their big additions this off season are bourn, martin, and shield you can expect an 85-90 lost season easy...

Disagree. With all the prospects up already, the team is in a better spot than last year. Effectively replacing Edwin Jackson with James Shields makes the team 4 wins+ better. Idk though, Shields would be great for a team ready to win this year, too early to say if the Cubs will be. He's going to be 34 and has a lot of mileage on his arm. Would make the team a lot better for 2015 but he's going to regress shortly

Cubs LF was one of the worst spots in baseball last year, Bourn isn't going to do a whole lot to change that but LF for the Cubs combined for a -2.9 WAR. Bourn had a 1.0 WAR for what that's worth. Martin is also a significant upgrade over Castillo both offensively and defensively. I would love to get Bourn for Jackson. Then could alternate Bryant between LF and 3B, giving Bourn/Valbuena spot starts. I think Bourn would be an upgrade over Sweeney as the 4/5 OF. If it gets rid of Jackson I'd be for it. OF bench would be crowded though with Ruggiano/Sweeney/Coughlan/Bourn so a couple would have to go

 

[chibears55]

Disagree. With all the prospects up already, the team is in a better spot than last year. Effectively replacing Edwin Jackson with James Shields makes the team 4 wins+ better. Idk though, Shields would be great for a team ready to win this year, too early to say if the Cubs will be. He's going to be 34 and has a lot of mileage on his arm. Would make the team a lot better for 2015 but he's going to regress shortly

Cubs LF was one of the worst spots in baseball last year, Bourn isn't going to do a whole lot to change that but LF for the Cubs combined for a -2.9 WAR. Bourn had a 1.0 WAR for what that's worth. Martin is also a significant upgrade over Castillo both offensively and defensively. I would love to get Bourn for Jackson. Then could alternate Bryant between LF and 3B, giving Bourn/Valbuena spot starts. I think Bourn would be an upgrade over Sweeney as the 4/5 OF. If it gets rid of Jackson I'd be for it. OF bench would be crowded though with Ruggiano/Sweeney/Coughlan/Bourn so a couple would have to go

I dont have a problem to much with shield just as long as it not a crazy deal... 3 or 4 yrs top if 4th is option at no more then 15 per. .

Bourne for jackson is great, but bourne is not the answer for the everyday LF as his better days are behind him..
Much rather start Coghlan and keep bourne as 4th OFer if they dont go out and get a legit LFer..

I don't think castillo defense, game calling, etc. is all that bad, and as far as the bat goes, i see Martin as more for what he done the 5 previous years before last year..
Castillo could do just as good and cost 10 Mil less

So, yeah of course you improve with shield over jackson
But bourne would be a drop off over Coghlan and i dont know i just don't think were gonna see 2014 martin but more of what he was previously...

 

[JZsportsfan]

I dont have a problem to much with shield just as long as it not a crazy deal... 3 or 4 yrs top if 4th is option at no more then 15 per. .

Bourne for jackson is great, but bourne is not the answer for the everyday LF as his better days are behind him..
Much rather start Coghlan and keep bourne as 4th OFer if they dont go out and get a legit LFer..

I don't think castillo defense, game calling, etc. is all that bad, and as far as the bat goes, i see Martin as more for what he done the 5 previous years before last year..
Castillo could do just as good and cost 10 Mil less

So, yeah of course you improve with shield over jackson
But bourne would be a drop off over Coghlan and i dont know i just don't think were gonna see 2014 martin but more of what he was previously...

My opinion of Martin will be based off what his contract is. I agree, he had one good year over the course of the past few seasons. I saw an estimate of 4/$52 M which I think would absolutely be worth it. If he approaches McCann money I would run far away.

 

[CSF77]

I dont have a problem to much with shield just as long as it not a crazy deal... 3 or 4 yrs top if 4th is option at no more then 15 per. .

Bourne for jackson is great, but bourne is not the answer for the everyday LF as his better days are behind him..
Much rather start Coghlan and keep bourne as 4th OFer if they dont go out and get a legit LFer..

I don't think castillo defense, game calling, etc. is all that bad, and as far as the bat goes, i see Martin as more for what he done the 5 previous years before last year..
Castillo could do just as good and cost 10 Mil less

So, yeah of course you improve with shield over jackson
But bourne would be a drop off over Coghlan and i dont know i just don't think were gonna see 2014 martin but more of what he was previously...

We don't know that to be true.

Bourn: Career wOBA: .297 OBP projection on Steamer: .314
Martin career wOBA: .334 His OBP prediction on Steamer is .341

That is a decent 1/2 combo ahead of Rizzo. Both vets both more proven.

So that makes the line up Bourn, Martin, Rizzo, Soler, Castro, Valbuena, Baez, Alcantara

Not so bad and think they would have Bryant on Apr 17th....

On Castillo he was ranked #92 on baseball perspective's rankings. That is behind career back ups and youth. That is plain bad and he sucks at framing pitches.....That is Martin's strong point and calling games. Add to it he is ranked #6.

Any time you can go from a #92 ranking to a #6 ranking you do it. Especially when it comes to handling your pitching staff.

 

[chibears55]

My opinion of Martin will be based off what his contract is. I agree, he had one good year over the course of the past few seasons. I saw an estimate of 4/$52 M which I think would absolutely be worth it. If he approaches McCann money I would run far away.

That fine but like I said, id rather save the 10 mil for someone else and go with castillo and 3 mil over martin and 13..

Id go after doumit as back up

 

[Boobaby1]

I agree with what you're saying but the Cubs need to be prepared. Imagine the Cubs don't get any big name pitchers and the kids go nuts next season and hit the ball all around the place. They get to the first round of playoffs and then lose because they don't have any quality pitching (outside of Arriata) to help them advance. Then everyone is gonna be saying, "What the ****, why didn't we have any pitchers."

Theo needs to get Lester/Scherzer in a room and find out what they want in terms of money and club. Sell the hell out of the Cubs and Maddon. And then see what the players come back with. They need to get one of these guys.

It may very well depend on how fast they think they need to start the season. Lets suppose a few teams get into the loop and snatch up two of the starters like Lester and Scherzer.

That would leave Shields, and some lessers like maybe Santana, Liriano, Hammel. Lets suppose they take Shields and also go for Bret Anderson or Liriano as middle strength leaving Wada and Hendricks at the bottom barring injuries.

Bryant doesn't figure to be up with the Cubs for a few weeks, and like I said, the youth will still be going through rough patches which will probably include Bryant too. Not saying that a few may surprise, but for arguments sake, lets say they do.

Now, if the Cubs are remotely close to .500 near the deadline plus or minus, and some players have indeed found their strides, the Cubs may at that point pursue a trade to land a Hamels, Cueto, Latos, Gray, or any team that may be out of the hunt. The Cubs may also not have to give up as much lets say, if someone like Baez (example) turns the corner a little while Addison Russell gets ever so close to the majors. The Cubs then hold the cards.

This also allows the Cubs to have the first three months to evaluate, and possibly strike it with a team that may be in fear of losing their pitcher to free agency.

I feel the Cubs will be buyers at the deadline this year regardless, as they may position themselves before the next off-season, and not have to deal so much with free agency and trying to land the pitcher they feel moves the team forward. Just my opinion.

Of course, landing any of the big two makes anything I said pointless except for possibly still being buyers at the deadline.

 

[CSF77]

It may very well depend on how fast they think they need to start the season. Lets suppose a few teams get into the loop and snatch up two of the starters like Lester and Scherzer.

That would leave Shields, and some lessers like maybe Santana, Liriano, Hammel. Lets suppose they take Shields and also go for Bret Anderson or Liriano as middle strength leaving Wada and Hendricks at the bottom barring injuries.

Bryant doesn't figure to be up with the Cubs for a few weeks, and like I said, the youth will still be going through rough patches which will probably include Bryant too. Not saying that a few may surprise, but for arguments sake, lets say they do.

Now, if the Cubs are remotely close to .500 near the deadline plus or minus, and some players have indeed found their strides, the Cubs may at that point pursue a trade to land a Hamels, Cueto, Latos, Gray, or any team that may be out of the hunt. The Cubs may also not have to give up as much lets say, if someone like Baez (example) turns the corner a little while Addison Russell gets ever so close to the majors. The Cubs then hold the cards.

This also allows the Cubs to have the first three months to evaluate, and possibly strike it with a team that may be in fear of losing their pitcher to free agency.

I feel the Cubs will be buyers at the deadline this year regardless, as they may position themselves before the next off-season, and not have to deal so much with free agency and trying to land the pitcher they feel moves the team forward. Just my opinion.

Of course, landing any of the big two makes anything I said pointless except for possibly still being buyers at the deadline.

Theo said they are looking at a 15 month window. Next years class is deeper.

 

[JimJohnson]

Shields isn't what this team needs. I really don't know how many times I need to say it. He's too old for what the Cubs are trying to do. The Cubs need young stud pitchers.

 

[JZsportsfan]

I think the Cubs will go after another TOR pitcher next winter. They will also have a much better idea of which of these young guys can and cannot stick around in the big leagues, and look to upgrade at their positions.

If the Yankees really are sitting this FA class out, along with the Dodgers cutting some payroll the Cubs would be foolish to not take advantage. I think getting Lester + Martin this offseason would be a great FA haul. Then cut some dead weight, and maybe add a guy via trade

Shields isn't what this team needs. I really don't know how many times I need to say it. He's too old for what the Cubs are trying to do. The Cubs need young stud pitchers.

Young, stud pitchers aren't really available in FA

 

[CSF77]

They are developing some solid arms in the lower levels. That wave pushed K/C to a domination season. What they need is proven vets to lead the staff. As it is they should have Edwards in AAA next year and he is a TOR projection.

 

[chibears55]

Theo said they are looking at a 15 month window. Next years class is deeper.

Deeper for what ? Position players? Their either going with these kids or not, which is it ? I know they all dont pan out but you have to give them more then 1 season, besides the only position player id be interested in is heyward for LF..everyone else are in their 30s and best yrs behind them..

Pitching ? Price, Gallardo, and Cueto for TOR and no matter what they add this year they can still add one of these 3 if they want..

so, not sure exactly what his thinking is with the 15 month windows except maybe they could add 1 big starter this year abd 1 next year, other then that there really not much to look at for needs via FA next yr especially if the plan is for these kids to be the core...

 

[Boobaby1]

Shields isn't what this team needs. I really don't know how many times I need to say it. He's too old for what the Cubs are trying to do. The Cubs need young stud pitchers.

Depends how you view it. First off, I don't think anyone is stating that they wouldn't want Lester or Scherzer, but they are not YOUNG studs.

Second, even with Lester, the Cubs are not positioned to make a championship run. If they do, that would be covering some of the greatest odds in the history of sports.

One thing that Shields would give the Cubs is an immediate TOR pitcher like they had with Shark, plus, he wouldn't be tied to a 6 year deal which would allow the Cubs to keep exploring other and quite possibly better starters, and if they land better ones, it keeps pushing the current starters back in the rotation, which in essence, pushes guys like Hendricks down to number 5, and Wada (if still around) into rotational depth. In a couple of years, Johnson and/or Edwards figure to be on the team. That is always a good thing.

So Shields right now, might very well be a #4 in a couple of years. That is even a better thing.

 

[Boobaby1]

Deeper for what ? Position players? Their either going with these kids or not, which is it ? I know they all dont pan out but you have to give them more then 1 season, besides the only position player id be interested in is heyward for LF..everyone else are in their 30s and best yrs behind them..

Pitching ? Price, Gallardo, and Cueto for TOR and no matter what they add this year they can still add one of these 3 if they want..

so, not sure exactly what his thinking is with the 15 month windows except maybe they could add 1 big starter this year abd 1 next year, other then that there really not much to look at for needs via FA next yr especially if the plan is for these kids to be the core...

He is talking starting pitching I'm sure.

Price, Jordan Zimmerman, Shark, Cueto, Latos, quite possibly Hamels if he isn't traded by then, and that doesn't scratch the surface on teams like the A's who may be in all out sell mode, so Sonny Gray figures to be available for prospect trading I would think. Not to mention any other teams the Cubs might be able to trade with like the Mets maybe?

 

[Boobaby1]

I think the Cubs will go after another TOR pitcher next winter. They will also have a much better idea of which of these young guys can and cannot stick around in the big leagues, and look to upgrade at their positions.

If the Yankees really are sitting this FA class out, along with the Dodgers cutting some payroll the Cubs would be foolish to not take advantage. I think getting Lester + Martin this offseason would be a great FA haul. Then cut some dead weight, and maybe add a guy via trade



Young, stud pitchers aren't really available in FA

I agree that they will go after another one (assuming they land one this year), but I think it will via the trade route which will release some of the Cubs prospects, and probably good ones if they want a young TOR pitcher.

But that's what you build up the farm to do. They are the best currency to have.

 

[JimJohnson]

He is talking starting pitching I'm sure.

Price, Jordan Zimmerman, Shark, Cueto, Latos, quite possibly Hamels if he isn't traded by then, and that doesn't scratch the surface on teams like the A's who may be in all out sell mode, so Sonny Gray figures to be available for prospect trading I would think. Not to mention any other teams the Cubs might be able to trade with like the Mets maybe?

Okay and if we wait, then once next year rolls around, we're going to have to deal with people saying that the Cubs aren't going to get into bidding wars with the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yanks.

 

[CSF77]

Clay Buchholz (31) – $13MM club option with a $245K buyout
Mark Buehrle (37)
Trevor Cahill (28) – $13MM club option with a $300K buyout
Jhoulys Chacin (28)
Wei-Yin Chen (30)
Bartolo Colon (43)
Johnny Cueto (30)
Ross Detwiler (30)
R.A. Dickey (41) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Marco Estrada (32)
Doug Fister (32)
Yovani Gallardo (30)
Jaime Garcia (29) – $11.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jeremy Guthrie (37) – $10MM mutual option with a $3.2MM buyout
J.A. Happ (33)
Dan Haren (35)
Tim Hudson (40)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35)
Scott Kazmir (32)
Ian Kennedy (31)
John Lackey (37)
Mat Latos (28)
Mike Leake (28)
Tim Lincecum (32)
Kyle Lohse (37)
Corey Luebke (31) – $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
Kris Medlen (30)
Bud Norris (31)
Ross Ohlendorf (33)
Mike Pelfrey (32)
Rick Porcello (27)
David Price (30)
Ricky Romero (31) – $13.1MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jeff Samardzija (31)
Alfredo Simon (35)
Jerome Williams (34)
Jordan Zimmermann (30)