2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[CSF77]

There are just more on the market. More arms at the 30 yo mark. Price headlines a class that includes Cueto, Zimmerman, Leake, Latos, Gallardo and Shark.

Puts this years class to shame.

 

[brett05]

Clay Buchholz (31) – $13MM club option with a $245K buyout
Mark Buehrle (37)
Trevor Cahill (28) – $13MM club option with a $300K buyout
Jhoulys Chacin (28)
Wei-Yin Chen (30)
Bartolo Colon (43)
Johnny Cueto (30)
Ross Detwiler (30)
R.A. Dickey (41) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Marco Estrada (32)
Doug Fister (32)
Yovani Gallardo (30)
Jaime Garcia (29) – $11.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jeremy Guthrie (37) – $10MM mutual option with a $3.2MM buyout
J.A. Happ (33)
Dan Haren (35)
Tim Hudson (40)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35)
Scott Kazmir (32)
Ian Kennedy (31)
John Lackey (37)
Mat Latos (28)
Mike Leake (28)
Tim Lincecum (32)
Kyle Lohse (37)
Corey Luebke (31) – $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
Kris Medlen (30)
Bud Norris (31)
Ross Ohlendorf (33)
Mike Pelfrey (32)
Rick Porcello (27)
David Price (30)
Ricky Romero (31) – $13.1MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jeff Samardzija (31)
Alfredo Simon (35)
Jerome Williams (34)
Jordan Zimmermann (30)

Quite a bit of good pitching and a couple of veterans that would be good on one year deals. The issue would be how many make it to Free Agency? With the demand for quality pitching I am thinking 80%+ get signed in the under 33 category.

 

[chibears55]

Quite a bit of good pitching and a couple of veterans that would be good on one year deals. The issue would be how many make it to Free Agency? With the demand for quality pitching I am thinking 80%+ get signed in the under 33 category.

Exactly. . My thing is why punt this off season when you have a chance to add at least 1 solid long term arm... you can always add another arm next year, especially since there still question marks around arrieta and hendricks. .

If their just gonna band ade the rotation this year , then there no reason to go after martin or anyone significant for the OF if their not seriously trying to compete in 2015

 

[brett05]

If Theo is not lying about playoffs and World Series in 2015 than you go for Martin as well as at least one TOR.

I read an article that looked at the possibility of a Trifecta offseason of Lester, Scherzer, and a trade of Hamels. As a sox fan, I threw up in my mouth a little. That would be a near unstoppable starting three.

 

[JimJohnson]

Conversation b/t Lester & Scherzer:

Lester: "Hey bud, you ever been to Chicago?"
Scherzer: "Yeah it's fucking cold."
Lester: "Not during baseball season."
Scherzer: "Good point. What are you thinking?"
Lester: "I'm thinking we fucking go kill that goat and win a mother fucking World Series."
Scherzer: "Sounds good. $22M each?"
Lester: "Yup."

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Theo is not lying about playoffs and World Series in 2015 than you go for Martin as well as at least one TOR.

I read an article that looked at the possibility of a Trifecta offseason of Lester, Scherzer, and a trade of Hamels. As a sox fan, I threw up in my mouth a little. That would be a near unstoppable starting three.

They're not going to tie up that kind of money this season. The other thing is I don't think Theo is lying but you have to listen closely to what he said. He said they were going to compete with a goal of winning the Division. That doesn't mean they're going to contend. Joe Maddon is the only one that said World Series.

 

[fatbeard]

If Theo is not lying about playoffs and World Series in 2015 than you go for Martin as well as at least one TOR.

I read an article that looked at the possibility of a Trifecta offseason of Lester, Scherzer, and a trade of Hamels. As a sox fan, I threw up in my mouth a little. That would be a near unstoppable starting three.

When did Theo talk about playoffs and WS in 2015? He talked about competing for the division, and how he's looking 12-15 months out as far as acquisitions, not just this FA period. I think they'll be far more patient and conservative than many fans want them to be. I think that means 1 TOR, maybe a position player (Martin seems to be the name du jour, which makes sense as far as open positions go), and a vet to platoon in the OF.

 

[JimJohnson]

They're not going to tie up that kind of money this season. The other thing is I don't think Theo is lying but you have to listen closely to what he said. He said they were going to compete with a goal of winning the Division. That doesn't mean they're going to contend. Joe Maddon is the only one that said World Series.

Okay well if all they do is go out and sign Shields, hate to break it to you, they ain't winning shit!

 

[brett05]

When did Theo talk about playoffs and WS in 2015? He talked about competing for the division, and how he's looking 12-15 months out as far as acquisitions, not just this FA period. I think they'll be far more patient and conservative than many fans want them to be. I think that means 1 TOR, maybe a position player (Martin seems to be the name du jour, which makes sense as far as open positions go), and a vet to platoon in the OF.

Joe did it first in his press conference. Then in the media outlets afterwards Theo said it multiple times even joking well if we are going to be in the playoffs let's go for the last 8-11 games as well. That doesn't mean he makes playoffs or wins the WS. It does mean he makes moves that does not prevent that reality.

I'm not saying he needs to get Martin or a TOR. I am just saying that if he is really trying for October then it would make sense to land a Martin/TOR

 

[fatbeard]

Joe did it first in his press conference. Then in the media outlets afterwards he's said it multiple times even joking well if we are going to be in the playoffs let's go for the last 8-11 games as well. That doesn't mean he makes playoffs or wins the WS. It does mean he makes moves that does not prevent that reality.

1. Joe ain't Theo

2. You're taking Joe's comments out of context

 

[CSF77]

Exactly. . My thing is why punt this off season when you have a chance to add at least 1 solid long term arm... you can always add another arm next year, especially since there still question marks around arrieta and hendricks. .

If their just gonna band ade the rotation this year , then there no reason to go after martin or anyone significant for the OF if their not seriously trying to compete in 2015

I didn't say punt at all. I believe that the need for a catching upgrade will hold more weight than adding 2 SP this year. Seeing how they inked Wada backs that theory.

I'm still standing on they try to get lester and Martin this year and if they trade Bourn for Jackson I'll be very happy going into next year.

2016's class is pretty deep. There should be a few willing to test F/A.

 

[CSF77]

Okay well if all they do is go out and sign Shields, hate to break it to you, they ain't winning shit!

I agree. If they trade for Bourn and add Martin then add Shields they will be hovering around .500. Then they could look into trading up for a rental arm.

I get the age thing with Shields. But the real question is is he better than McCarthy or Masterson while in decline?

We know Lester is better but will the Cubs spend 150 mil this year on one guy? After the TV deal I would be more willing to believe it.

 

[brett05]

1. Joe ain't Theo

2. You're taking Joe's comments out of context

I figured it might get read wrong, so I edited my post for you and others. Please re-read it.

I apologize for not being clearer.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Okay well if all they do is go out and sign Shields, hate to break it to you, they ain't winning shit!

I think if they sign Jon Lester and get an platoon outfielder with a high OBP then I think you're looking at a .500 ballclub, maybe slightly better. The thing is that is competing. That would put you in the "buyer" category at the trade deadline and at that point a couple of addition could you get you to contending. Theo has been clear that they want to compete in 2015 and he also said last year at the deadline that he was fairly confident that it was the last year they would be a seller. He's also been clear that they're not going to derail the plan for short term gain. Put all those piece together and it's unlikely that they go nuts this winter loading up the team. not saying it can't happen, just saying it most likely won't.

Let me ask this; if they play a fun brand of baseball next year, are in most games, Kris Bryant is exciting, Alcantara and Baez improve, they make a good forward thinking deal at the deadline and finish 85-77 and miss the playoffs are you happy or pissed? Frankly looking at next year's free agent class, the coming 2016 arrival of guys like Schwarber and Russell and the free agent pitching class of next year, I'd be friggin' ecstatic. Temper your expectations folks, it's a marathon not a sprint.

 

[Boobaby1]

Okay and if we wait, then once next year rolls around, we're going to have to deal with people saying that the Cubs aren't going to get into bidding wars with the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yanks.

Not saying to just wait. I am stating that there is a chance (maybe a good one) that they don't get who they target. Free agency is a tough nut, and yes, waiting could be catastrophic too.

There is a plan "B". It could be Shields. It could be Scherzer. Maybe neither. We just don't know. The Cubs do have limits in payroll as we have seen in the past.

My gut says they land one, and then take a flier with a Brett Anderson or bring back Hamels whom both could be tied to a two year contract probably.

In the end, if the Cubs land one of the BIG THREE, get a secondary, and then pursue another big fish at the deadline or next off-season, I'm okay with that.

I don't put a lot of stock into talk about competing for the division as Theo has stated, and assuming he means going out and getting all of the necessary parts this year. He knows that it is going to take an astronomical amount of performance from the kids to make that work.

That said, I do believe he can put enough pieces in the line-up, get some bounce back production from some of the kids, and remain competitive at the deadline, in which then, he might be able to add another significant piece from someone who is either going to lose someone to free agency, or some team merely shedding payroll. That's the beauty of being buyers versus sellers.

Baez and Mendy are going to have to take HUGE leaps forward for anything to work, and Bryant is basically going to have to contribute from the get go. That's asking an awful lot, especially for how green they truly are.

But, it does bode well from here on out as they should get a lot better when they start to figure it all out. Then we will be talking about the second place Cardinals behind us.

 

[fatbeard]

I think if they sign Jon Lester and get an platoon outfielder with a high OBP then I think you're looking at a .500 ballclub, maybe slightly better.

The compelling thing is, they were already that ballclub in the second half last year after ditching some of the dead wood they opened the season with.

 

[brett05]

The compelling thing is, they were already that ballclub in the second half last year after ditching some of the dead wood they opened the season with.

The issue is that you aren't sure if that was floor play, ceiling play or somewhere in the middle. I think the majority of Cub Fans think it was closer to ceiling play which is why posters like TC in Mississippi are saying .500 with a couple of moves.

 

[CSF77]

Not saying to just wait. I am stating that there is a chance (maybe a good one) that they don't get who they target. Free agency is a tough nut, and yes, waiting could be catastrophic too.

There is a plan "B". It could be Shields. It could be Scherzer. Maybe neither. We just don't know. The Cubs do have limits in payroll as we have seen in the past.

My gut says they land one, and then take a flier with a Brett Anderson or bring back Hamels whom both could be tied to a two year contract probably.

In the end, if the Cubs land one of the BIG THREE, get a secondary, and then pursue another big fish at the deadline or next off-season, I'm okay with that.

I don't put a lot of stock into talk about competing for the division as Theo has stated, and assuming he means going out and getting all of the necessary parts this year. He knows that it is going to take an astronomical amount of performance from the kids to make that work.

That said, I do believe he can put enough pieces in the line-up, get some bounce back production from some of the kids, and remain competitive at the deadline, in which then, he might be able to add another significant piece from someone who is either going to lose someone to free agency, or some team merely shedding payroll. That's the beauty of being buyers versus sellers.

Baez and Mendy are going to have to take HUGE leaps forward for anything to work, and Bryant is basically going to have to contribute from the get go. That's asking an awful lot, especially for how green they truly are.

But, it does bode well from here on out as they should get a lot better when they start to figure it all out. Then we will be talking about the second place Cardinals behind us.

They need to land one of the big 3 for sure. I'm leaning towards they work on fixing Wood. He moves back to 2013 form the problem is solved. His Fip went from 3.80 to the 4.25 range and a major reason why was his BB ratio went up. He is in the same boat Masterson is in right now. Both were good and fell to the weigh side.

But seeing how they all ready have 2 LH's slated in the rotation it leans more towards adding a RH. Not saying they will not.

 

[CSF77]

Steamer 2015 predictions:
Arrieta: 3.48 FIP
Masterson: 4.07 FIP
Wood: 4.76 FIP
Hendricks: 4.10 FIP
Wada: 4.27 FIP

Predictions look sparse for the group in general. That looks like a innings soak, if that.

 

[Boobaby1]

They need to land one of the big 3 for sure. I'm leaning towards they work on fixing Wood. He moves back to 2013 form the problem is solved. His Fip went from 3.80 to the 4.25 range and a major reason why was his BB ratio went up. He is in the same boat Masterson is in right now. Both were good and fell to the weigh side.

But seeing how they all ready have 2 LH's slated in the rotation it leans more towards adding a RH. Not saying they will not.

I agree Wood needs to step it up, and he could definitely save them the headaches of finding another pitcher. Though Wood hasn't had the dispeasure coming out of Theo's mouth like he said about E-Jax, I just wonder if Wood will be a sweetener in a trade or something.

Maybe he would be one that would be a part of a package? It makes me wonder why you have Arrieta, Hendricks already penciled in, and Wada's option picked up, if the Cubs said they wanted two pitchers. That leaves Wood and E-Jax out, unless they consider Wada as depth in the bullpen and Wood a starter.

The depth right now goes to Turner, Doubront, and Beeler I would think.