2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[SilenceS]

The irony here is that if you'd actually looked at the article he put Schwarber and Bryant as the following

Schwarber: Upside: .280/.360/.480, 25 homers
Bryant: Upside: .275/.360/.540, 35-40 homers

Bryant clearly has more raw power but your initial statement was that he was not the same caliber "hitter." This is a scout giving them roughly the same average and on base upsides.

One is considered superstar potential. One is not. You cant decipher this.

 

[SilenceS]

Which is what I had heard along with the fact that Schwarber would have been a top three pick if he had a natural position. He's athletic enough to not be just a DH but Indiana was justifiably more interested in his bat than teaching him a position.

Top 3? Most didnt have him in top 15. He was drafted because of the money. The Cubs had a plan to use the money. Being a college senior gave him no leverage. They knew around where he would sign for. Whats funny? Is I am not even ripping Schwarber. I like his bat. I dont think he sticks at catcher. But, my point, was ;people were comparing him to Bryant who is the number 1/2 prospect in baseball. Schwarber isnt going to crack the top 50 most likely. Thats not saying Schwarber wont be a quality player or wont wind up having a better career, but at this point, he is not the caliber of potential that is Kris Bryant. Kris Bryant has also dominated to higher levels where Schwarber faced inferior competition. Schwarber hits like this next year then you can start saying Kris Bryant caliber, but he doesnt have the power. 15 to 20 more homeruns a year is a significant difference. No one puts Schwarber in the Kris Bryant category and only a couple of minor leaguers could be put in that category right now.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Top 3? Most didnt have him in top 15. He was drafted because of the money. The Cubs had a plan to use the money. Being a college senior gave him no leverage. They knew around where he would sign for. Whats funny? Is I am not even ripping Schwarber. I like his bat. I dont think he sticks at catcher. But, my point, was ;people were comparing him to Bryant who is the number 1/2 prospect in baseball. Schwarber isnt going to crack the top 50 most likely. Thats not saying Schwarber wont be a quality player or wont wind up having a better career, but at this point, he is not the caliber of potential that is Kris Bryant. Kris Bryant has also dominated to higher levels where Schwarber faced inferior competition. Schwarber hits like this next year then you can start saying Kris Bryant caliber, but he doesnt have the power. 15 to 20 more homeruns a year is a significant difference. No one puts Schwarber in the Kris Bryant category and only a couple of minor leaguers could be put in that category right now.

Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying he was top three, I'm not saying that at all. The Cubs drafted him earlier as a slot move. I get it. The thing is with his bat if he had a natural position, RF, 1B even catcher he would have been a higher draft pick. I've heard that repeatedly and that finding him a position was not a priority for the Indiana coaching staff. Some felt he was strictly a DH because while he is athletic his athleticism didn't fit a positional mold so that hurt him some in the draft. As it stands the Cubs got a bargain.

I have now officially defended Schwarber to a greater degree than I actually like him.

 

[SilenceS]

Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying he was top three, I'm not saying that at all. The Cubs drafted him earlier as a slot move. I get it. The thing is with his bat if he had a natural position, RF, 1B even catcher he would have been a higher draft pick. I've heard that repeatedly and that finding him a position was not a priority for the Indiana coaching staff. Some felt he was strictly a DH because while he is athletic his athleticism didn't fit a positional mold so that hurt him some in the draft. As it stands the Cubs got a bargain.

I have now officially defended Schwarber to a greater degree than I actually like him.

He def. was flying under people's radar. Ive said before that if he sticks at C then his value is through the roof. I mean that would be absolutely great with that bat potential. This got spun into a different direction. He comes out next year and does a Kris Bryant type season then by all means hype the shit out of him. That was pretty much my whole point. Completely understand your opinion.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs.com confermed that Martin is on the Cubs radar. Also looks like they are looking to add 1 starter. Martin looks like that guy. 1 back up OF (thinking Jonny Gomes) Looks like they want to upgrade Ruggiano as Coglands platoon mate. Add to it 1 SP. That is open to discussion. 1 BP. But the main goal in these 4 guys is leadership.

Predicting:
Martin, Gomes, Robinson, Lester. They have been tied to Hamels but I doubt they give up 3 prospects here. At best it would be Almora, Edwards and Vogelbach. Best for the Cubs that is. He is owed 96 mil. I would rather have them spend the 50 mil and get Lester and keep the talent.

 

[CSF77]

He def. was flying under people's radar. Ive said before that if he sticks at C then his value is through the roof. I mean that would be absolutely great with that bat potential. This got spun into a different direction. He comes out next year and does a Kris Bryant type season then by all means hype the shit out of him. That was pretty much my whole point. Completely understand your opinion.

He bat plays in LF also. His strongest point is his BB:SO is near 1:1. Most players are no where near that.

 

[Boobaby1]

Cubs.com confermed that Martin is on the Cubs radar. Also looks like they are looking to add 1 starter. Martin looks like that guy. 1 back up OF (thinking Jonny Gomes) Looks like they want to upgrade Ruggiano as Coglands platoon mate. Add to it 1 SP. That is open to discussion. 1 BP. But the main goal in these 4 guys is leadership.

Predicting:
Martin, Gomes, Robinson, Lester. They have been tied to Hamels but I doubt they give up 3 prospects here. At best it would be Almora, Edwards and Vogelbach. Best for the Cubs that is. He is owed 96 mil. I would rather have them spend the 50 mil and get Lester and keep the talent.

I understand the need for a lefty in the pen, just not sure what the fascination is for losing a draft pick for a reliever. I know he is tough, but isn't that the kind of move you make when you are definitely in full compete mode?

A TOR, veteran everyday bat, flippable pitcher (good enough to compete this year or upgrade at the deadline or in next years crop), a platoon player and a reliever.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Cubs.com confermed that Martin is on the Cubs radar. Also looks like they are looking to add 1 starter. Martin looks like that guy. 1 back up OF (thinking Jonny Gomes) Looks like they want to upgrade Ruggiano as Coglands platoon mate. Add to it 1 SP. That is open to discussion. 1 BP. But the main goal in these 4 guys is leadership.

Predicting:
Martin, Gomes, Robinson, Lester. They have been tied to Hamels but I doubt they give up 3 prospects here. At best it would be Almora, Edwards and Vogelbach. Best for the Cubs that is. He is owed 96 mil. I would rather have them spend the 50 mil and get Lester and keep the talent.

I've been slow to jump on the Martin train but the veteran leadership argument has won me over. He would be a positional upgrade, a boon to the pitching staff and the money is there. With you on Lester and Gomes too. I'd skip Robinson though and go with someone that has the ability to step into the #3 starter role like Masterson or McCarthy. I like Liriano but with the QO and the signing of Martin it's too much.

My biggest concerns going in to this offseason are that Arietta and Hendricks will forced to fill positions they're not ready for. Arietta pitched like an ace sure but he hasn't pitched 200 innings yet and really has only realized his potential in the last year or so. #2 is a spot where he'll thrive (hopefully) without having to be "the man". Add Lester and problem is solved. Similar situation for Hendricks. Putting this kid in as a #3 could be setting him up to fail but at #4 you back the pressure off a tad. Add Masterson, McCarthy or another guy capable of #3 and it will help. Now, I get that those guys are borderline at 3 like Hendricks but they're older guys used to expectations.

 

[CSF77]

Lester
Arrieta
Wood
Hendricks
Wada

Coghland LF (Jonny Gomes Platoon mate/Alcantara leading off vs LH pitching)
Martin C (OBA should prove good here. But he held a solid BA with men on so under debate)
Rizzo 1B
Soler RF
Castro SS (more reliable than Baez)
Valbuena 3B (Olt platoon mate)(Until bryant promotes)
Baez 2B
Alcantara CF

Bench:
Back up catcher: Castillo. Doubt they trade him. He should get better working with Martin for a year.
UI: Have Olt at 3B/1B. I would exepect them to put Olt at 3B, Valbuena at 2B freeing up Baez for SS as needed. or have Sweeney play CF and move Alcantara to 2B. They don't need a true UI.

OF: Gomes and Sweeney (under contract for 1.5 mil. follow the $$)

BP: I don't think they will bother with a 2nd LF arm. They will go after David Robertson to close. Play off experience.

Pen:
Closer: David Robenson
Set up: Hector Rondon & Pedro Strop
Middle relief: Neil Ramirez & Justin Grimm (Both were very solid in their first year in the pen.)
Long relief: Jacob Turner. He was pretty strong in the pen and he can be stretched out to emergency start.
LH: Wesley Wright. 2nd would be a competition: Joseph Ortiz, Eric Jokisch, Zac Rosscup or Felix Doubront. I'm thinking they go with Ortiz with his change up and 32 games at the major league level. Should become interesting.

This team should get a major boost with Bryant added in late Apr. As long as Baez and Alcantara start to adjust this team could take off.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You know, I think that's very close. I'm not sure they sign Robertson, I think Wood most likely goes in a trade, I think they sign a second pitcher for teh rotation (probably McCarthy or Masterson) and Turner wins a starting job over Wada who then takes the role you have turner in. Everything I'm reading has Russell coming up by July so that's going to raise some question, not to mention put pressure on Baez, and if they're .500 or better at the trade deadline there could be lots of moving parts. Still whether it's your scenario or mine or something different than that and 2015 will be interesting to say the least.

 

[CSF77]

You know, I think that's very close. I'm not sure they sign Robertson, I think Wood most likely goes in a trade, I think they sign a second pitcher for teh rotation (probably McCarthy or Masterson) and Turner wins a starting job over Wada who then takes the role you have turner in. Everything I'm reading has Russell coming up by July so that's going to raise some question, not to mention put pressure on Baez, and if they're .500 or better at the trade deadline there could be lots of moving parts. Still whether it's your scenario or mine or something different than that and 2015 will be interesting to say the least.

I think Wood is fixable. Wada has a guaranteed contract. If he was going into competition they would have offered him a minor league deal with a offer to compete. Turner got a 1 mil deal or 500k to start in Iowa. He is the shaky one here. If they decide that they don't want to eat Jackson's deal and shove him into the long man role then Turner is that guy in trouble.

The key here is Jed said they want leaders via F/A.

Leaders: Catcher...leader. Ace: Leader. Closer leader. Gomes on the bench...leader...

Signing a #4 starter to replace Wood? Really?

 

[CSF77]

Personally I believe they eat Jackson's deal. That 11 mil comes out of pay roll. If we expect a 120 mil payroll than it would be 109 mil.

Robinson I'm expecting to get a 3 year deal at min. I could see him getting 12 mil this year alone. Gomes 5 mil on the bench. Match what he made last year.
Lester 25 mil this year. Martin 10 mil next year is realistic. He made 8.5 mil for the Pirates. He will be looking for length of deal vs a 15 mil payday. 5 years at 60 mil would be realistic.

So they would be adding 50-55 mil by adding 4 players. I believe they could work out a 110 mil payroll with the rest.

 

[CSF77]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/

“There’s a real dearth of impact position players out there right now,” Epstein said. “We have some of that. We’re not in a rush to move it.”

Given that thinking, striking early for Martin is a real possibility, but the Cubs will take their time in possibly spending $100 million or more on a pitcher. Jon Lester and Max Scherzer simply aren’t coming off the board any time soon. And the Cubs will need to weigh the pros and cons before committing to a contract that will probably be a bad one for the team in the long term -- unless it brings the Cubs a World Series, of course. In that case, no contract will have been a bad one.

“Just because you can afford one, does that mean you should?” Epstein asked. “I think it has to be the right pitcher because those contracts tend not to work out.”

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Signing a #4 starter to replace Wood? Really?

I guess I'm looking at McCarthy and Masterson as higher end reclamation projects. Both could project to a #3. McCarthy's numbers in NY were already right there. You may be right on Wada v Turner, again I'm looking at upside and Turner was a blue chip prospect not long ago. to me Lester, Arietta, McCarthy, Hendricks, Turner looks better to me than your rotation. That and I have to admit I'm very worried about Hendricks. This was a guy with no expectations that opened a lot of eyes but the fact that he really has no stuff to speak of is worrisome. He could very well be the 2014 version of Randy Wells. I see the likelihood of him washing out and Wada taking his place at #4 as reasonably high.

 

[SilenceS]

Turner is out of options. He either makes the club or he wont be part of the Cubs.

My two cents, I would worry more about Hendricks then Arrieta. Arrieta has always had the potential. What he did last year was not very fluky. Nothing in his peripherals said it was a fluke season like Wood's the year before. A lot of people that I read believe this is here to stay for a couple of years. Hendricks has to be a perfect pitcher everytime out to succeed. I like his makeup, but I still have my reservations. I would love for him to be our 4th or 5th starter for some years because I believe he could be one of the better 4 or 5th starters in the league. I get the Arrieta arguments and it could possibly be just a fluke season but it sure didnt look like it.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Turner is out of options. He either makes the club or he wont be part of the Cubs.

My two cents, I would worry more about Hendricks then Arrieta. Arrieta has always had the potential. What he did last year was not very fluky. Nothing in his peripherals said it was a fluke season like Wood's the year before. A lot of people that I read believe this is here to stay for a couple of years. Hendricks has to be a perfect pitcher everytime out to succeed. I like his makeup, but I still have my reservations. I would love for him to be our 4th or 5th starter for some years because I believe he could be one of the better 4 or 5th starters in the league. I get the Arrieta arguments and it could possibly be just a fluke season but it sure didnt look like it.

Exactly right and the fact that Turner is out of options leads me to believe that he might win that #5. The kid was a Marlin, now he's a on a resurgent Cubs team that could be the motivation he needs along with some Bosio instruction. As far as Hendricks I stand by what I said, I'm not certain he's not Randy Wells part deux. I hope I'm wrong but I pick stuff over pitching acumen in young pitchers and Hendricks has the opposite. I think Arietta has found his groove and I think he's a solid #2 at this point. If he pitches 200 plus innings this year with similar numbers to last year then he's a legitimate ace.

 

[beckdawg]

Exactly right and the fact that Turner is out of options leads me to believe that he might win that #5. The kid was a Marlin, now he's a on a resurgent Cubs team that could be the motivation he needs along with some Bosio instruction. As far as Hendricks I stand by what I said, I'm not certain he's not Randy Wells part deux. I hope I'm wrong but I pick stuff over pitching acumen in young pitchers and Hendricks has the opposite. I think Arietta has found his groove and I think he's a solid #2 at this point. If he pitches 200 plus innings this year with similar numbers to last year then he's a legitimate ace.

Not saying you're wrong but I would also point out Wade Davis as a failed starter for Tampa/KC who's turned into a rather dominating bullpen piece. Andrew Miller is another in that mold.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Not saying you're wrong but I would also point out Wade Davis as a failed starter for Tampa/KC who's turned into a rather dominating bullpen piece. Andrew Miller is another in that mold.

That would be fine too. Obviously if he reached his original projection as topping off as a #2 or #3 starter he'd be that much more valuable.

Bottom line the more arms the merrier. Competition is good and if we learned anything from the 2013 pennant race and WS with Boston and St. Louis if you have a solid couple TOR guys backed up by a parade of young power arms it doesn't matter where they pitch. I think this team will gather those arms through any means possible and use them in whatever way works going forward.

 

[CSF77]

I guess I'm looking at McCarthy and Masterson as higher end reclamation projects. Both could project to a #3. McCarthy's numbers in NY were already right there. You may be right on Wada v Turner, again I'm looking at upside and Turner was a blue chip prospect not long ago. to me Lester, Arietta, McCarthy, Hendricks, Turner looks better to me than your rotation. That and I have to admit I'm very worried about Hendricks. This was a guy with no expectations that opened a lot of eyes but the fact that he really has no stuff to speak of is worrisome. He could very well be the 2014 version of Randy Wells. I see the likelihood of him washing out and Wada taking his place at #4 as reasonably high.

If anything there has been mutual interest in Hammel coming back. Wood would get 5 mil in arb. Jason's worth is another story.

 

[chibears55]

If anything there has been mutual interest in Hammel coming back. Wood would get 5 mil in arb. Jason's worth is another story.

Ahhhhhhhhh..lol

Please no more jason hammel coming back comments..

They took a shot on him and got lucky for what he produced for them and were able to trade him for a good package. ..
They are not going to try and roll the dice on him twice..