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My favorite teams
What a dumb Sox thread. Wrong forum.
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It isn't. It was banter on a message board. I suggested Quintana since he is on the block. Brett said it would start at Bryant and I said it won't happen. That's how the convo went
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No one and I repeat no one can offer the prospect depth we can right now with hitting. Pitching is a different story. This was just bs convo just to bs. I believe the Cubs trade no one until next off season if they do at all. Also, I would see what I can get for valbuena. It's the same thing I said about Nate last off season. It's highly unlikely he repeats that power production again
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Don't tell your superior what to do in this forum![emoji12]
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brett05
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Who said Q is on the block?
brett05
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Sense to trade? Maybe. But your offer needs to come way way up. The pitchers (stras, gio, zim) are worth much more than Shark. Id use that as comp.
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chibears55
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We still discussing trading players that aren't going to be traded ?
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Yep, called the off season and arm chair gm's. Join in
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Superior? As I understand it, I have the same banning power you do!
beckdawg
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The problem i have with trading Valbuena is it's going against what they are saying they want to do which is to have a vet presence for the young players. And fair enough you can get that with other FA's but this feels like a case of bird in the hand. Valbuena has to be one of the most cost effective players in 2014 who's not on a pre-arb contract. His 2.7 fWAR puts him as the 53rd best positional player. If you were to buy that on the FA market it should cost you roughly $15 mil a year. I also don't think you can really consider him a fluke. Perhaps his power is a bit up but as an overall value he's about the same. His 2013 he put up 2.1 fWAR in 391 PAs. In 2012 he put up 1.4 in 303 PAs. That's over 1200 PAs he's played at this level. Valbuena is a perfect example of why having a 10%+ walk rate matters. Even given that, what are you going to get for him? Who's going to give you a serious prospect for him? Would you give up anything of value for Erick Aybar? You're basically talking a similar age/skill level player. I've said it a number of times but we've gone from the early 90's when no one gave a shit about prospect to the point where prospects are seriously over valued. If you're a team in need you arguably should give up an Almora level player for someone like Valbuena/Aybar if you're going to be competitive. But no one does. I'm sure the cubs tried to trade Nate last year but look what they got for Dejesus who was arguably a better/less flukey player. On top of all that, he's great insurance against Baez being terrible again and he's a left handed bat who can hit near the top of the order. Frankly, I'm much more inclined to believe in Valbeuna as a bridge to hopefully Russell being a star than I am in Baez which is why I say there's a compelling argument to be made that you're better off medium term(2-5 years) with Valbeuna than you are with Baez.
I get why people think about trading someone like Valbuena. He's far from a sexy player. However, over the past 3 years in 1965 PAs Castro has been worth 6.2 fWAR. Valbuena has been worth 6.2 fWAR in 1241 PAs. WAR isn't an end all be all stat but it's cases like this that point out the inherent bias people have in viewing players. Relatively few want to even talk about the concept of trading Castro but few view Valbuena as having anywhere near as similar a value to the team. Obviously Valbeuna is going to be 29 to Castro's 25 but it's not like he's some upper 30's guy trying to hold onto his career. If Shark as a 4 win player is roughly worth Russell who's a top 10 prospect then what's that say to Valbuena's value as roughly a 3 win player over the past 2 600 PAs "seasons?" Surely you'd have to be talking a top 50 prospect to get equal value back and I seriously doubt anyone is going to give that up for Valbuena.
Perhaps you could get better value for him as part of a bigger trade. But even if you were to include him as part of say a Heyward trade to Atlanta who's both competitive and has a black hole at 2B I don't see that moving the dial much for them. Valbuena and Almora for example wouldn't get that trade done. I just think any offer you get for him will be low ball compared to what you actually get out of him. He still has 2 years of arbitration left at probably below $5 mil per for both. $5.25 mil in FA this past offseason got you a 37 year old Mark Ellis who put up -0.4 fWAR. $3.5 mil got you a 36 year old Rafael Furcal who posted a -0.2 fWAR. $3 mil got you a 36 year old Nick Punto who posted a 0.2 fWAR. $2 mil got you a 36 year old Brian Roberts who posted 0.2 fWAR. 4 years $30 mil got you a 32 year old Infante who put up 0.5 and was only 3.1 and 2.9 the two years prior to FA. And while you would think that would make him have serious value I doubt it will.
To me Valbuena is the type of player that is worth far more to the team he's on than he will ever be in a trade scenario.
CSF77
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Good scenario:
They trade Jackson and cash to Phill. for Dominic Brown.
They sign Jonny Gomes to finish the LF platoon.
That takes care of LF this year.
3B they keep Valbuena there until they Promote Bryant then Valbuena becomes a UI.
Olt has to earn a spot in S/T. IE cutting down his SO%
Rotation they sign Lester than then let the rest shake out.
I wouldn't expect them to trade any youth out any time soon or trade out Castro at this point. There is no need yet. Now at the trade deadline that could change if they need a TOR and they are competing for a play off spot.
But expecting them to deal out in the off season would be 100% stupid....Russell needs to master AAA before any of this talk even becomes necessary.
They trade Jackson and cash to Phill. for Dominic Brown.
They sign Jonny Gomes to finish the LF platoon.
That takes care of LF this year.
3B they keep Valbuena there until they Promote Bryant then Valbuena becomes a UI.
Olt has to earn a spot in S/T. IE cutting down his SO%
Rotation they sign Lester than then let the rest shake out.
I wouldn't expect them to trade any youth out any time soon or trade out Castro at this point. There is no need yet. Now at the trade deadline that could change if they need a TOR and they are competing for a play off spot.
But expecting them to deal out in the off season would be 100% stupid....Russell needs to master AAA before any of this talk even becomes necessary.
beckdawg
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If you want to argue Strasburg is more valuable than Latos is that's fine. I did acknowledge I don't know exactly what it will take. But I do feel the comparison to Latos is probably you're best case for comparison. Using Shark is a bit different because you're talking about a deadline deal. 1/2 a season for a team that knows it's got a good shot at playoffs is worth a lot more than a player prior to the season. Another example of a trade was the Beckett for Hanley trade. That amounts to Beckett + Guillermo Mota + Lowell who while coming off a down year had previously been an all-star 3B for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. Hanley had been a top 25 player and even top 10 at one point. Sanchez was back end of the top 100. The rest I don't think were viewed as much more than filler pieces.
In that sense, these type of trades typically are one big player(read top 25) and fillers or two medium players 25-100 and fillers. Even if you want to include the Shark trade it was also Hammel in the deal that netted such a high return. James Shields and Wade Davis was Wil Myers, Patrick Leonard (minors), Mike Montgomery (minors), and Jake Odorizzi. Myers(top 10) and Ororizzi(70's i think) were viewed as the big pieces and while Montgomery had once been viewed highly he'd fallen off some. And like with Hammel you have to account for Davis' value to some extent.
If you have a better example by all means show it. But even if you want to start with the Shark deal, Baez as a prospect is viewed in a similar range to Russell. I love Billy McKinney but mlb.com graded him as a 50. Paul Blackburn was graded as a 45. And Straily was a whatever reclamation type piece similar to the Turner/Doubront example I gave. Candelario and Vogelbach who I mentioned you could also still add are graded as 50 prospects. And that doesn't factor in what Hammel was worth to that deal. So even if those pitchers are worth more than Shark you're also adding in whatever value Hammel has which at the trade deadline was possibly a top 100 piece.
To suggest it's going to cost a top 10 prospect and a top 50-75 prospect just doesn't seem likely to me. In the last 10-15 years the closest trade I can come to that sort of value with a top 10 prospect + a top 50ish is Miggy/Willis trade for Maybin and Andrew Miller. Keep in mind that even though Willis now seems like a crap part, he was going to be 26 and excluding the 5.17 ERA 2007 he had 3.87 2006, 2.63 2005, 4.02 2004, and 3.30 2003 and was coming into his "prime". Miggy was going to be 25 and had put up a 5.1 fWAR 2007, 6.4 fWAR 2006, and a 5.1 2005.
So, you can suggest those pitchers are worth more than that but in terms of what teams actually gave up it appears you're setting the bar too high. In the case of Gio, we don't have to look that far back because we can see what he was traded for. That cost A.J. Cole (minors), Tommy Milone, Derek Norris and Brad Peacock and that was with more team control than he has now. None of those players were top 50 prospects prior to 2012. If you want to read about how those players are viewed at that time you can here.
Perhaps you just feel Baez isn't a top 10 prospect anymore. My feelings on him are well known. But I doubt many teams will significantly knock him yet for a poor initial call up. They likely either never believed in him in the first place in which case none of this talk matters to begin with or did believe in him and just see this as growing pains.
I can agree that arguably these players should cost more as I said with the thing about Valbuena. However, prospects being what they are these days that's just not the case. Recently, the M's traded a 23 year old Michael Pineda who was coming off a 3.74 ERA season(3.2 fWAR) with tons of team control for essentially Jesus Montero who had serious concerns about sticking as a C and was likely to be DH only in the short term. Obviously Pineda got hurt and that set him back a ton but the point I"m trying to make is top 10 prospect carry serious weight with teams.
CSF77
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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
By Tim Dierkes [October 7, 2014 at 10:33am CDT]
The Cubs enter the 2014-15 offseason with the highest expectations since Theo Epstein took over as club president in October 2011. Starting pitching should be the team’s main focus this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
Starlin Castro, SS: $44MM through 2019
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $37MM through 2019
Edwin Jackson, SP: $22MM through 2016
Jorge Soler, RF: $20MM through 2020 (may opt for arbitration once eligible)
Ryan Sweeney, OF: $2MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
John Baker, C (5.141): $1.1MM projected salary
Wesley Wright, RP (5.105): $2MM
James McDonald, SP (5.074): $1MM
Chris Coghlan, LF (4.148): $1.4MM
Luis Valbuena, 3B (4.148): $3.1MM
Justin Ruggiano, RF (4.019): $2.5MM
Travis Wood, SP (4.004): $5.5MM
Pedro Strop, RP (3.156): $2.4MM
Jake Arrieta, SP (3.145): $4.1MM
Felix Doubront, SP (3.120): $1.3MM
Welington Castillo, C (3.009): $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Baker, McDonald, Wood
Contract Options
Kyuji Fujikawa, RP: $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tsuyoshi Wada, SP: $5MM club option (no buyout)
Jacob Turner, SP: $1MM club option (no buyout)
Free Agents
Carlos Villanueva
For a last-place team that finished 16 games under .500, the 2014 Cubs had several positive developments. 25-year-old Anthony Rizzo emerged as one of the best first basemen in baseball. 24-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro bounced back to his 2011-12 form. 22-year-old right fielder Jorge Soler battled hamstring injuries but still tore through Double and Triple-A and saw his success carry over for a month in the Majors. On the pitching side, Jake Arrieta emerged as a potential ace with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts and Hector Rondon had a successful run as the team’s closer. A lot of building blocks fell into place under new manager Rick Renteria.
In March, I questioned the Cubs’ choices of position players Rizzo and Kris Bryant over power arms Andrew Cashner and Jon Gray. The Rizzo and Bryant choices, plus this summer’s acquisition of Addison Russell and drafting of Kyle Schwarber, suggest president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have implemented a strategy favoring the stability of position players to begin their rebuild. The plan has come up smelling like roses so far, as the team’s collection of young hitters is the envy of baseball.
Rizzo has first base locked down for the Cubs potentially through 2021, on what’s become one of the game’s most team-friendly contracts. Though Luis Valbuena did an admirable job at the hot corner in 2014, third base belongs to Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year Kris Bryant. If the Cubs wait a few weeks into April to select Bryant’s contract, they’ll control him through 2021 as well.
The Cubs’ middle infield logjam represents a good kind of problem. Castro, signed potentially through 2020, was one of the game’s ten best shortstops in 2014 despite missing most of the season’s final month. Powerful 21-year-old Javier Baez made his big league debut in August, playing second base and then switching to shortstop when Castro went down. Baez struggled at his new level, as many prospects do, but has the second base job entering 2015. Then there’s Addison Russell, the key piece in the deal that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland. The 20-year-old Russell raked at Double-A and is knocking on the door to the Majors himself.
Valbuena, 28, had his first full season as a regular, posting a solid .249/.341/.435 line while playing third base and a bit at second. If we pencil in Rizzo, Castro, and Bryant at their respective positions for 2015, only second base is available for three players ranging from good (Valbuena) to potential All-Star (Russell and Baez).
Trading Castro, Russell, or Baez this offseason could be jumping the gun, since Baez has yet to succeed at the big league level and Russell has yet to reach Triple-A. A safe plan would be to begin 2015 with a Castro-Baez middle infield, and if Baez hits and Russell is knocking down the door come July, the team can more seriously consider trades at that point or even move someone to the outfield. Trading Valbuena this winter could make sense, though he’d be a good backup plan at second base. The Cubs need a backup plan for Baez, who struck out in 41.5% of his plate appearances as a rookie. Among players with 200 or more plate appearances, that’s easily the worst strikeout rate in baseball history.
Valbuena was one of the ten best offensive third basemen in the game this year and is under control through 2016; a team like the Red Sox could have interest. He could also be marketed as a second baseman, especially since the free agent market is weak at that position.
Soler should have the right field job locked down heading into 2015, but last year’s 86 games marked a career high. We won’t know if Soler’s hamstrings can hold up for 130+ games in the Majors until he does it. Over in left field, former 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan had a resurgent year and should have the job heading into next season. The 2014 Cubs used a host of center fielders, the most interesting of whom is 22-year-old Arismendy Alcantara. A very good prospect in his own right, Alcantara took his first reps at the position this year after previously working as an infielder. As with Baez, Alcantara should get first crack at the 2015 job despite rookie growing pains.
The Cubs’ outfield has enough uncertainty that keeping veterans Sweeney and Ruggiano around makes sense. The team would be justified entering Spring Training with their current outfield pieces, though I’d consider an offseason run at Colby Rasmus on a one-year deal. Rasmus would bring power and upside with no long-term risk, and Alcantara could get further acquainted with center field at Triple-A or be an oft-used super-utility player in the Majors. Another outfielder who could fit is Yasmany Tomas, if the Cubs see star potential in the Cuban free agent, consider him worth a potential $100MM contract, and don’t mind creating something of a long-term surplus in the outfield.
Behind the plate, 27-year-old Welington Castillo played acceptably but saw his batting average and walk rate decline from 2013. The Cubs don’t have to make a long-term decision on Castillo, who is entering arbitration for the first time. The team does have a potential star catcher in the pipeline in 2014 first-rounder Kyle Schwarber, but he needs to prove he can stick at the position. In the spirit of adding position player talent now and worrying about a potential surplus later, the Cubs could make a run at the best free agent catcher, Russell Martin. Signing Martin would signal the Cubs intend to take a leap forward into contention in 2015, though he could require upwards of $50MM as well as the forfeiture of the Cubs’ second-round draft pick.
Epstein whiffed on the biggest expenditure thus far in his Cubs tenure, Edwin Jackson. Jackson now has two years and $22MM left on his contract. According to a late August report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cubs and Braves engaged in talks in July to swap Jackson and B.J. Upton. That could be revisited, but it’s not the best match since Upton has more than twice as much money remaining on his contract. Other disappointing contracts with between $16-30MM remaining include Cameron Maybin, Chris Johnson, Aaron Hill, Allen Craig, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Beltran. While those players have been letdowns, their teams may not be as close to the breaking point as the Cubs seem to be with Jackson.
Regardless of Jackson, the Cubs will need to explore adding starting pitching from all angles. The 2014-15 free agent class is rife with options for all parts of a rotation. The Big Three are Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. Lester is the most obvious fit for the Cubs, as a player who joined the Red Sox around the same time Epstein did and was a big part of the executive’s success there. That he isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer is helpful, but Lester’s price tag will probably exceed $150MM. If they prefer the trade market, the Cubs could try to swing a deal for the Phillies’ Cole Hamels, who is owed $96MM through 2018.
One big name starter alone probably wouldn’t be enough to push the Cubs into contention. Arrieta looked like an ace this year, but his 176 2/3 pro innings marked a career-high, and he missed the season’s first month recovering from a shoulder injury. Kyle Hendricks posted a sparkling 2.46 ERA in 80 1/3 innings as a rookie, but his scouting report and lack of strikeouts suggest a back of the rotation starter. Though his ERA bounced around in his three years with the Cubs, Travis Wood profiles at the back end of a rotation as well and could be non-tendered or traded. The other immediate options are projects who once showed potential: Jacob Turner, Felix Doubront, and Dan Straily. If the Cubs want to keep Turner they’ll pick up his $1MM club option, as renewing him would cost at least 80% of his 2014 salary, which comes to more than $1.5MM.
The Cubs would do well to add one or two mid-tier starting pitchers even if they sign one of the Big Three. Wada could be in that mix after a successful 13-start run, though the Cubs would probably want him for less than his $5MM club option. The Cubs will likely set their sights higher and go for Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, or Justin Masterson. Masterson comes with the Epstein connection plus other helpful factors such as the lack of a qualifying offer and a likely short-term deal. Epstein has succeeded in the free agent starting pitcher bargain bin over the years, finding Hammel, Wada, Scott Feldman, and Paul Maholm on the cheap.
The Cubs’ bullpen has talent. Rondon is the incumbent closer, while Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez, and Pedro Strop also pitched well. The Cubs could cut Wesley Wright loose and pursue a better option from the left side, with Andrew Miller profiling as the top southpaw reliever on the free agent market. Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa is likely to have his option bought out after missing most of his two-year term with the Cubs due to Tommy John surgery. The 2014 Cubs led the NL in relief innings, and the ten pitchers who tossed 14 or fewer innings apiece accounted for a 6.91 ERA. The nine hurlers who had 21 or more relief innings tallied a cumulative 3.04 mark. Better starting pitching could have a significant trickle-down effect on the bullpen in 2015.
Alfonso Soriano is finally off the books for the Cubs, who owe $25.5MM to five players under contract for 2015. They could spend another $17MM or so on arbitration eligible players, bringing total commitments to around $43MM. What is an appropriate payroll for the 2015 Cubs? It seems they could reasonably sit around the middle of the pack with a $110MM payroll, and they could also roll over unspent money from 2014. A $70MM war chest would be more than enough money to add the players necessary to compete next season.
In the longer-term, the Cubs should raise their payroll to be top five in baseball, befitting of their status as a major market team. Though their short-term television rights are an open question, the Cubs’ potential TV deal for all their games following the 2019 season will be what Epstein called a “paradigm shifter” for club revenue, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Improvements to Wrigley Field, which are now underway, will “move the needle,” according to Epstein. The Cubs have begun their renovation project despite a pending lawsuit between rooftop owners and the city of Chicago regarding the team’s plans to erect signs that will affect the rooftop view.
Regular season winning percentages in the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer Cubs era have increased from .377 to .407 to .451. Though he could sign an extension, Epstein only has two years left on his contract. Aggressive acquisition of starting pitching this offseason should mark the end of his three-year rebuilding plan.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-cubs-5.html
By Tim Dierkes [October 7, 2014 at 10:33am CDT]
The Cubs enter the 2014-15 offseason with the highest expectations since Theo Epstein took over as club president in October 2011. Starting pitching should be the team’s main focus this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
Starlin Castro, SS: $44MM through 2019
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $37MM through 2019
Edwin Jackson, SP: $22MM through 2016
Jorge Soler, RF: $20MM through 2020 (may opt for arbitration once eligible)
Ryan Sweeney, OF: $2MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
John Baker, C (5.141): $1.1MM projected salary
Wesley Wright, RP (5.105): $2MM
James McDonald, SP (5.074): $1MM
Chris Coghlan, LF (4.148): $1.4MM
Luis Valbuena, 3B (4.148): $3.1MM
Justin Ruggiano, RF (4.019): $2.5MM
Travis Wood, SP (4.004): $5.5MM
Pedro Strop, RP (3.156): $2.4MM
Jake Arrieta, SP (3.145): $4.1MM
Felix Doubront, SP (3.120): $1.3MM
Welington Castillo, C (3.009): $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Baker, McDonald, Wood
Contract Options
Kyuji Fujikawa, RP: $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tsuyoshi Wada, SP: $5MM club option (no buyout)
Jacob Turner, SP: $1MM club option (no buyout)
Free Agents
Carlos Villanueva
For a last-place team that finished 16 games under .500, the 2014 Cubs had several positive developments. 25-year-old Anthony Rizzo emerged as one of the best first basemen in baseball. 24-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro bounced back to his 2011-12 form. 22-year-old right fielder Jorge Soler battled hamstring injuries but still tore through Double and Triple-A and saw his success carry over for a month in the Majors. On the pitching side, Jake Arrieta emerged as a potential ace with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts and Hector Rondon had a successful run as the team’s closer. A lot of building blocks fell into place under new manager Rick Renteria.
In March, I questioned the Cubs’ choices of position players Rizzo and Kris Bryant over power arms Andrew Cashner and Jon Gray. The Rizzo and Bryant choices, plus this summer’s acquisition of Addison Russell and drafting of Kyle Schwarber, suggest president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have implemented a strategy favoring the stability of position players to begin their rebuild. The plan has come up smelling like roses so far, as the team’s collection of young hitters is the envy of baseball.
Rizzo has first base locked down for the Cubs potentially through 2021, on what’s become one of the game’s most team-friendly contracts. Though Luis Valbuena did an admirable job at the hot corner in 2014, third base belongs to Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year Kris Bryant. If the Cubs wait a few weeks into April to select Bryant’s contract, they’ll control him through 2021 as well.
The Cubs’ middle infield logjam represents a good kind of problem. Castro, signed potentially through 2020, was one of the game’s ten best shortstops in 2014 despite missing most of the season’s final month. Powerful 21-year-old Javier Baez made his big league debut in August, playing second base and then switching to shortstop when Castro went down. Baez struggled at his new level, as many prospects do, but has the second base job entering 2015. Then there’s Addison Russell, the key piece in the deal that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland. The 20-year-old Russell raked at Double-A and is knocking on the door to the Majors himself.
Valbuena, 28, had his first full season as a regular, posting a solid .249/.341/.435 line while playing third base and a bit at second. If we pencil in Rizzo, Castro, and Bryant at their respective positions for 2015, only second base is available for three players ranging from good (Valbuena) to potential All-Star (Russell and Baez).
Trading Castro, Russell, or Baez this offseason could be jumping the gun, since Baez has yet to succeed at the big league level and Russell has yet to reach Triple-A. A safe plan would be to begin 2015 with a Castro-Baez middle infield, and if Baez hits and Russell is knocking down the door come July, the team can more seriously consider trades at that point or even move someone to the outfield. Trading Valbuena this winter could make sense, though he’d be a good backup plan at second base. The Cubs need a backup plan for Baez, who struck out in 41.5% of his plate appearances as a rookie. Among players with 200 or more plate appearances, that’s easily the worst strikeout rate in baseball history.
Valbuena was one of the ten best offensive third basemen in the game this year and is under control through 2016; a team like the Red Sox could have interest. He could also be marketed as a second baseman, especially since the free agent market is weak at that position.
Soler should have the right field job locked down heading into 2015, but last year’s 86 games marked a career high. We won’t know if Soler’s hamstrings can hold up for 130+ games in the Majors until he does it. Over in left field, former 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan had a resurgent year and should have the job heading into next season. The 2014 Cubs used a host of center fielders, the most interesting of whom is 22-year-old Arismendy Alcantara. A very good prospect in his own right, Alcantara took his first reps at the position this year after previously working as an infielder. As with Baez, Alcantara should get first crack at the 2015 job despite rookie growing pains.
The Cubs’ outfield has enough uncertainty that keeping veterans Sweeney and Ruggiano around makes sense. The team would be justified entering Spring Training with their current outfield pieces, though I’d consider an offseason run at Colby Rasmus on a one-year deal. Rasmus would bring power and upside with no long-term risk, and Alcantara could get further acquainted with center field at Triple-A or be an oft-used super-utility player in the Majors. Another outfielder who could fit is Yasmany Tomas, if the Cubs see star potential in the Cuban free agent, consider him worth a potential $100MM contract, and don’t mind creating something of a long-term surplus in the outfield.
Behind the plate, 27-year-old Welington Castillo played acceptably but saw his batting average and walk rate decline from 2013. The Cubs don’t have to make a long-term decision on Castillo, who is entering arbitration for the first time. The team does have a potential star catcher in the pipeline in 2014 first-rounder Kyle Schwarber, but he needs to prove he can stick at the position. In the spirit of adding position player talent now and worrying about a potential surplus later, the Cubs could make a run at the best free agent catcher, Russell Martin. Signing Martin would signal the Cubs intend to take a leap forward into contention in 2015, though he could require upwards of $50MM as well as the forfeiture of the Cubs’ second-round draft pick.
Epstein whiffed on the biggest expenditure thus far in his Cubs tenure, Edwin Jackson. Jackson now has two years and $22MM left on his contract. According to a late August report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cubs and Braves engaged in talks in July to swap Jackson and B.J. Upton. That could be revisited, but it’s not the best match since Upton has more than twice as much money remaining on his contract. Other disappointing contracts with between $16-30MM remaining include Cameron Maybin, Chris Johnson, Aaron Hill, Allen Craig, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Beltran. While those players have been letdowns, their teams may not be as close to the breaking point as the Cubs seem to be with Jackson.
Regardless of Jackson, the Cubs will need to explore adding starting pitching from all angles. The 2014-15 free agent class is rife with options for all parts of a rotation. The Big Three are Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. Lester is the most obvious fit for the Cubs, as a player who joined the Red Sox around the same time Epstein did and was a big part of the executive’s success there. That he isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer is helpful, but Lester’s price tag will probably exceed $150MM. If they prefer the trade market, the Cubs could try to swing a deal for the Phillies’ Cole Hamels, who is owed $96MM through 2018.
One big name starter alone probably wouldn’t be enough to push the Cubs into contention. Arrieta looked like an ace this year, but his 176 2/3 pro innings marked a career-high, and he missed the season’s first month recovering from a shoulder injury. Kyle Hendricks posted a sparkling 2.46 ERA in 80 1/3 innings as a rookie, but his scouting report and lack of strikeouts suggest a back of the rotation starter. Though his ERA bounced around in his three years with the Cubs, Travis Wood profiles at the back end of a rotation as well and could be non-tendered or traded. The other immediate options are projects who once showed potential: Jacob Turner, Felix Doubront, and Dan Straily. If the Cubs want to keep Turner they’ll pick up his $1MM club option, as renewing him would cost at least 80% of his 2014 salary, which comes to more than $1.5MM.
The Cubs would do well to add one or two mid-tier starting pitchers even if they sign one of the Big Three. Wada could be in that mix after a successful 13-start run, though the Cubs would probably want him for less than his $5MM club option. The Cubs will likely set their sights higher and go for Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, or Justin Masterson. Masterson comes with the Epstein connection plus other helpful factors such as the lack of a qualifying offer and a likely short-term deal. Epstein has succeeded in the free agent starting pitcher bargain bin over the years, finding Hammel, Wada, Scott Feldman, and Paul Maholm on the cheap.
The Cubs’ bullpen has talent. Rondon is the incumbent closer, while Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez, and Pedro Strop also pitched well. The Cubs could cut Wesley Wright loose and pursue a better option from the left side, with Andrew Miller profiling as the top southpaw reliever on the free agent market. Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa is likely to have his option bought out after missing most of his two-year term with the Cubs due to Tommy John surgery. The 2014 Cubs led the NL in relief innings, and the ten pitchers who tossed 14 or fewer innings apiece accounted for a 6.91 ERA. The nine hurlers who had 21 or more relief innings tallied a cumulative 3.04 mark. Better starting pitching could have a significant trickle-down effect on the bullpen in 2015.
Alfonso Soriano is finally off the books for the Cubs, who owe $25.5MM to five players under contract for 2015. They could spend another $17MM or so on arbitration eligible players, bringing total commitments to around $43MM. What is an appropriate payroll for the 2015 Cubs? It seems they could reasonably sit around the middle of the pack with a $110MM payroll, and they could also roll over unspent money from 2014. A $70MM war chest would be more than enough money to add the players necessary to compete next season.
In the longer-term, the Cubs should raise their payroll to be top five in baseball, befitting of their status as a major market team. Though their short-term television rights are an open question, the Cubs’ potential TV deal for all their games following the 2019 season will be what Epstein called a “paradigm shifter” for club revenue, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Improvements to Wrigley Field, which are now underway, will “move the needle,” according to Epstein. The Cubs have begun their renovation project despite a pending lawsuit between rooftop owners and the city of Chicago regarding the team’s plans to erect signs that will affect the rooftop view.
Regular season winning percentages in the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer Cubs era have increased from .377 to .407 to .451. Though he could sign an extension, Epstein only has two years left on his contract. Aggressive acquisition of starting pitching this offseason should mark the end of his three-year rebuilding plan.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-cubs-5.html
beckdawg
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Couple things, first of all, the talk about no need yet isn't really how it works. In a world where the trade you need is available when you need it that idea works. But that's not the case the majority of the time. I'm sure the cubs would love for a Miggy/Willis trade to be available this offseason but that was a once in a decade type trade. Even if you want to talk about a Latos like trade that only happens ever 2-3 years where you get a sub-25 year old. Point here being, that when the opportunity is available you go with it if you view that player as a piece that you can use in the near future because you don't know that you'll get the chance the following year. Thinking like that is way to static in the way things happen. This also goes with the concept the front office is pushing about having vets here for the young players to lean on. You don't let them all hit the majors then the next year look to make a trade. Ideally you want the vets here before they come up. An example of this was the Royals trading for Shields. They weren't ready to win with him last year. But they made the deal because they thought they would be soon.
Secondly, I've seen you push this Brown trade but I don't get it at all. What about him screams a trade this front office would be interested in? He's has a career .308 on base. His walk rate the past 2 years is below his career average so it's not even a case of him under performing his true ability there. On top of that, where's he fit in the order? He's probably ideally a 5th or 6th hitter with decent power. Presumably, you're going to have Baez(if he's not dealt as I suggest), Bryant, Rizzo, Soler, and Castro in some form hitting 3-7. Unless you're going to do something odd like batting Rizzo/Bryant second you're going to have to bat Brown 8th. Someone like Coghlan works in LF because he can bat 1/2 or 7/8th if you so choose.
On top of that, why on earth would the Phillies take that deal? The entire reason they put Hamels on waviers was to cut costs. Brown is going into arb 1. Even if the cubs eat $12 mil of the remaining $22 mil on Jackson's contract I'd probably rather gamble on someone like Maholm/Feldman/Hammel was at roughly $5 mil. You're not giving up an "asset" in Brown and you're only tied down one year if it goes bad. I don't particularly think Brown is all that valuable but I'd be willing to be they can get a far better offer than Jackson and cash for him.
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JZsportsfan
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Wonder if the Cubs will go after Heyward at all
CSF77
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Every year a top arm is up for sale at the dead line. This is nothing new. The only question is if the teams have a match.
Even so I highly doubt the Cubs will be good enough to warrant going after a pricey TOR. Now seeing them trade Castro for a young project-able TOR type I could see happening.
That article pretty much spelled it out as good as it gets. They need a TOR right now. They also went on to say getting a mid tier arm like Madea makes sense as Hendricks is back of the rotation.
Then trading Valbuena is dumb with Baez sitting at 41% SO ratio. Not to mention Russell in AAA next year. Not really a smart time to be dealing out.
What I see added is a SP or 2.
What I see subtracted Jackson and Wood by any means. I'm interested with the Braun and Mayben suggestions though. They should look into it some.
The Cubs really do not need a over haul right now. 2 weeks into the season they should have Bryant past the 7 year of control window. Which is what they were planning ( and the reason Boras spoke out about it..get him experience and only 6 years of team control...) That move alone changes the dynamic of the line up. Regardless if Baez adjusts or busts. Shoot Bryant, Rizzo and Soler in the middle of the order makes the line up very interesting.
CSF77
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Doubt it
Boobaby1
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I can see the Cubs nabbing one of the big 3 TOR pitchers, adding a possible middle pitcher, and then if things go right in the first half and they are in the hunt, possible taking a contract off of a team that is out of it and shedding salary. Then the following year, looking at upgrading the staff even more now that more free agents will be available.
By that time too, some of the Cubs pitching prospects as well as Russell will look to be joining the team.
By that time too, some of the Cubs pitching prospects as well as Russell will look to be joining the team.