2016 position players

[DanTown]

The league catching up was expected. Add to it he has not even played a full year in pro ball much less played into Sept. Give the kid a break. What he is doing is unprecedented.

Of course the league was going to catch-up to him but the question becomes what are his numbers? If he's a .250/.350/.450 guy, I'm not sure he's a great fit for the two spot ahead of Rizzo. I mean his K rate is damn near 30%; that's insanely too high for a guy batting in the two hole.

They need TOR bad, but just one person traded as you mention; which I agree with isn't going to get it unless its one of the big 3 or an appealing package.

There's this talk of a TOR guy but boy does that get expensive. Considering Arrieta needs a TOR deal in just two years, you'd have three guys on 25+ million contracts just when you start getting into arbitration on your plethora of young hitters. More than this team needs a Price, it needs a dependable #3. I mean the Cubs are not going to turn into the Dodgers and start paying $300 million for pitchers so you can't afford to get into a battle for these guys. I think a trade could help with either Soler/Castro and one of McKinnley/Almora but I don't see it happening yet.

Here is the thing: Baez is superior at 3B to Bryant. From what we have seen he has gold glove written all over him. Not to mention this is a kid that can put up 30 HR's while hitting .300 from a prime power position.

How does Baez project as a .300 hitter AND 30 HR? He hit .324 in Iowa on a .402 BABIP and only 24.3% k rate while sacrificing his power (At Iowa his HR rate went from 18.8 to 24.4 per PA but his Krate dropped from 30.0 to 24.4 and his avg was .324 insteaad of .294) . You realize not even Rizzo (a significantly better hitter) is close to .300 this year? And that only 14 hitters are going to bat over .295 this year? I love Baez's newer approach and think he'll settle in at around .260 (which if he maintains some of his power and slugs around .450 is going to mean his OPS of close to .800 and will be elite for IF). I also agree that Bryant should be a COF next year with Baez at 3B but that position to me is LF and not RF.

This isn't so much an argument about how good Baez will be but rather a conversation about where hitting in the majors is going. But if you project the Cubs to have four (Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Baez) guys with an OPS above .850 that means they'd have FOUR of the 15 best power guys in the league and boy would Baez's OPS being .850 for the entire year shock me.

 

[CSF77]

Of course the league was going to catch-up to him but the question becomes what are his numbers? If he's a .250/.350/.450 guy, I'm not sure he's a great fit for the two spot ahead of Rizzo. I mean his K rate is damn near 30%; that's insanely too high for a guy batting in the two hole.

look at the .350 OBA vs the .250 BA. That means that 35% of the time he is on base (minus HR's of course) for Rizzo. Not to mention his SO% was 16% in AAA. You would expect it to fall back. It is not like we are talking about a 25% SO rate jumping to 40%.

How does Baez project as a .300 hitter AND 30 HR? He hit .324 in Iowa on a .402 BABIP and only 24.3% k rate while sacrificing his power (At Iowa his HR rate went from 18.8 to 24.4 per PA but his Krate dropped from 30.0 to 24.4 and his avg was .324 insteaad of .294) . You realize not even Rizzo (a significantly better hitter) is close to .300 this year? And that only 14 hitters are going to bat over .295 this year? I love Baez's newer approach and think he'll settle in at around .260 (which if he maintains some of his power and slugs around .450 is going to mean his OPS of close to .800 and will be elite for IF). I also agree that Bryant should be a COF next year with Baez at 3B but that position to me is LF and not RF.

Hitting .300 is not this amazing thing that you make it out to be. Just because Rizzo is not hitting .300 doesn't say that it is out of reach for anyone. Can Baez do it? I can't see why not. He has boom or bust written all over him. He is either going to be great or is going to be great at sucking. (only guy over 40% SO with 200 AB's) I hate to say it but his talent is at that level.

Soler on the other hand runs crappy routs. Lets his D get affected by his O results. For some reason lost power. Can't hit non fastballs. And is injury prone.

I see more value in retaining Castro at 2B right now over Soler who may end up missing 2 months on Avg per year. And to be honest the team doesn't even miss him right now. They are playing their best ball with out him.

 

[Grizzly]

The league catching up was expected. Add to it he has not even played a full year in pro ball much less played into Sept. Give the kid a break. What he is doing is unprecedented.



Here is the thing: Baez is superior at 3B to Bryant. From what we have seen he has gold glove written all over him. Not to mention this is a kid that can put up 30 HR's while hitting .300 from a prime power position. But that bumps your golden boy into the OF. LF is being reserved for Schwarber. Just to get his LH bat to balance the line up justifies it. That leaves CF and RF. I don't know about most here but I really don't feel all too great with Bryant every day at CF. So guess what...some one goes.

At the end of the day the Cubs will have glaring needs in CF and SP. There are always matches to be made. A good match would be the Red Sox. Bradley Jr and Bucholtz. Now I believe they would need a 3rd team to pull it off as the Sox really have little need for OF or another SS/2B but a team like the Mets would.

They could get creative where the Sox give up Bucholtz and Bradley Jr. Mets get Castro and Soler then the Red Sox get Niese and some youth.

What the hell kind of trade is that for Boston?
Give up Bucholtz 7-7 3.26 ERA with a 1.21 whip for
Niese 8-10 4.36 ERA with a 1.40 whip
Then give up Bradley jr. a 25 year old hitting .299 with a .375 OBP, SLG. .605 and .980 OPS for "some youth"

 

[CSF77]

What the hell kind of trade is that for Boston?
Give up Bucholtz 7-7 3.26 ERA with a 1.21 whip for
Niese 8-10 4.36 ERA with a 1.40 whip
Then give up Bradley jr. a 25 year old hitting .299 with a .375 OBP, SLG. .605 and .980 OPS for "some youth"

You realize that Bucholtz is on the 60 day DL and out for the rest of the season right? Add to it Jr is only playing because Ramirez is on the DL also. He was the 4th OF before then.

 

[Grizzly]

You realize that Bucholtz is on the 60 day DL and out for the rest of the season right? Add to it Jr is only playing because Ramirez is on the DL also. He was the 4th OF before then.

Yes, but where does Boston benefit from this moving forward?

 

[DanTown]

Hitting .300 is not this amazing thing that you make it out to be. Just because Rizzo is not hitting .300 doesn't say that it is out of reach for anyone. Can Baez do it? I can't see why not. He has boom or bust written all over him. He is either going to be great or is going to be great at sucking. (only guy over 40% SO with 200 AB's) I hate to say it but his talent is at that level.

The only guys with a K-Rate above 20% and a BA above .290 in the NL:
Harper (20%), Goldschmidt (21.4%), Panik (21.5%), Peralta (22.9%), Herrera (23.5%)

If Baez has a K-Rate of 25% and say a walk rate of 7.5% and SF rate of 1.5%, he'd have to have a BABIP of .409 to hit .300. Not only has a BABIP of .409 not been done in the expansion era, only two guys (Jose Hernandez in 2002 and Roberto Clemente in 1967) have a BABIP over .400 in the expansion era.

Again, .270 would be GREAT for Baez and mean he topped out.

 

[CSF77]

Bradley Jr: 147 AB. Lost CF to Mookie Betts. RF: Castillo LF: Ramirez. (hack but they spent top end for him...has to play)
DH: Ortiz..has 2 options left. Doubt he goes away.
Sandoval...big contract...Bogaerts..again not going anywhere hitting .322 in 522 AB's. Pedroia...doubt anyone would be dumb enough to deal him out. Have Shaw at 1B and he is only 25. Was a 9th round pick. Seems like he has 20 HR power. I'm guessing that they want him there for the foreseeable future.

Their line up is pretty much set. Bradley is a 4th OF with them. With the Cubs he could platoon with Almora in CF for years. Sox team needs looks to be pitching. They have Johnson and Owens as the future but they need depth.

Porcello: 4 year 82.5 mil deal. until 2019

Bucholtz: 4 year 29.945 mil deal. options 2016 and 2017. 16:$13M club option ($0.245M buyout), 17:$13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout) Accually this injury hurt him more than anything with his next 2 years in club options. May get bought out.

Wade Miley lhp
3 years/$19.25M (2015-17), plus 2018 option He is locked up.




All the Cubs would be buying is 2 option years on Bucholtz. That is really not that high of value. If any one would balk it would be the Cubs as they are giving up more value.

 

[CSF77]

The only guys with a K-Rate above 20% and a BA above .290 in the NL:
Harper (20%), Goldschmidt (21.4%), Panik (21.5%), Peralta (22.9%), Herrera (23.5%)

If Baez has a K-Rate of 25% and say a walk rate of 7.5% and SF rate of 1.5%, he'd have to have a BABIP of .409 to hit .300. Not only has a BABIP of .409 not been done in the expansion era, only two guys (Jose Hernandez in 2002 and Roberto Clemente in 1967) have a BABIP over .400 in the expansion era.

Again, .270 would be GREAT for Baez and mean he topped out.

Lets let him play the game and see the results vs give a finite result with little data. Not to mention we are talking about a 22 year old kid still. Not a 25 -26 yo guy that finally broke in.

 

[DanTown]

Bradley Jr: 147 AB. Lost CF to Mookie Betts. RF: Castillo LF: Ramirez. (hack but they spent top end for him...has to play)
DH: Ortiz..has 2 options left. Doubt he goes away.
Sandoval...big contract...Bogaerts..again not going anywhere hitting .322 in 522 AB's. Pedroia...doubt anyone would be dumb enough to deal him out. Have Shaw at 1B and he is only 25. Was a 9th round pick. Seems like he has 20 HR power. I'm guessing that they want him there for the foreseeable future.

Their line up is pretty much set. Bradley is a 4th OF with them. With the Cubs he could platoon with Almora in CF for years. Sox team needs looks to be pitching. They have Johnson and Owens as the future but they need depth.

Porcello: 4 year 82.5 mil deal. until 2019

Bucholtz: 4 year 29.945 mil deal. options 2016 and 2017. 16:$13M club option ($0.245M buyout), 17:$13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout) Accually this injury hurt him more than anything with his next 2 years in club options. May get bought out.

Wade Miley lhp
3 years/$19.25M (2015-17), plus 2018 option He is locked up.




All the Cubs would be buying is 2 option years on Bucholtz. That is really not that high of value. If any one would balk it would be the Cubs as they are giving up more value.

There is a lot of talk about how they're going to move Hanley to 1B next year to get his terrible glove out of LF and with Bradley finally hitting (he's always been a top flight defensive CF), I doubt they'll just give him up. I do wonder if they'd do Bradley for Soler+Almora/McKinney.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There is a lot of talk about how they're going to move Hanley to 1B next year to get his terrible glove out of LF and with Bradley finally hitting (he's always been a top flight defensive CF), I doubt they'll just give him up. I do wonder if they'd do Bradley for Soler+Almora/McKinney.

i think it's almost impossible to say what Boston is going to do. Nearly every major position in that organization will be filled by new guys. It's been a bloodletting since Cherington was let go. Also you have to understand that Dombrowski wasn't hired to rebuild. He was hired to win now. It would not surprise me to see a lot of those young players traded for veterans that will help them do that. I think they will get one of the big three FA TOR's with them going hard after Price. Dombrowski has an an advantage on Price that other teams don't, he negotiated with him for 9 months and he likely knows what will land him. His owner in Detroit might have been squeamish but word is that John Henry won't be, he's seen enough losing (odd since the one the WS 2 years ago but still that's the word) Doesn't mean they will but it does give them an edge. I think there will be so much turnover on that Red Sox team that it'll make your head spin. If there are guys there that Theo drafted that he likes I would expect him to go after them. Bradley Jr. was Theo's last 1st round pick with Boston. I wouldn't be surprised if he sniffed around him.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

There's this talk of a TOR guy but boy does that get expensive. Considering Arrieta needs a TOR deal in just two years, you'd have three guys on 25+ million contracts just when you start getting into arbitration on your plethora of young hitters. More than this team needs a Price, it needs a dependable #3. I mean the Cubs are not going to turn into the Dodgers and start paying $300 million for pitchers so you can't afford to get into a battle for these guys. I think a trade could help with either Soler/Castro and one of McKinnley/Almora but I don't see it happening yet.

Pitching wins championships.

Good pitching costs money. Its the only route the cubs have right now because after Arrieta Lester, its garbage downhill with overachieving bottom or rotation talent--which is great--but it cant be something you trot out game 3-4 of any playoff series.

The cubs have nothing formidable in the pipe lines right now. And unless someone makes great strides beyond A+ ball; likely going to stay that way. This is the double edged sword Theo chose. Yeah, great hitting talent all over the place that makes many jealous and envious, but they've gotten lucky with Arrieta; paid top dollar for LEster, and otherwise have a whole lot of overachieving mediocrity. Sorry Hammel, wait no I'm not.

If the cubs had some young kid ready to go, then yeah, focus on Arrieta, focus on the kids. But they dont. Which means either A--Hamel has to perform out of his mind in the playoffs--a likelyhood I dont buy or B--you need a better option and December/January is the time to trade for it or buy it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The Cubs are not going to waste human resources on trading for a CF. Next year, provided these assets aren't traded for pitching, Soler is RF, Bryant can go to CF and Schwarber is LF with Coghlan and Jackson as the other OF.

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs are not going to waste human resources on trading for a CF. Next year, provided these assets aren't traded for pitching, Soler is RF, Bryant can go to CF and Schwarber is LF with Coghlan and Jackson as the other OF.

Honestly ask your self: Schwarber LF....Bryant CF....Soler RF Has to be the worst D OF in baseball.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Cubs are not going to waste human resources on trading for a CF. Next year, provided these assets aren't traded for pitching, Soler is RF, Bryant can go to CF and Schwarber is LF with Coghlan and Jackson as the other OF.

I wouldn't bet on that if there's a guy out there they love more than Almora. He an Happ are their only possibilities there from within the system and Almora is a year away at least and Happ a little longer. So they might go looking specially if it's an OBP guy which is going to be sorely missed when Fowler is gone. The Cubs offense picked up when Fowler's OBP started regressing to the mean. His second half OBP is .419 which has gotten him to .350 for the year getting him closer to his .363 lifetime. If you effectively replace him with Baez in the order you're in trouble. Bradley Jr. has been nothing but inconsistent in that category going back to the minors. Sometimes he's been in the high .300's other times he's in the .200's. Maybe Theo knows how to fix that. I don't know. I just said that they might sniff around him. I think the more unlikely thing about a deal like that is on the Boston end. They're going to want veterans, not kids and the Cubs don't have that.

 

[SilenceS]

Honestly ask your self: Schwarber LF....Bryant CF....Soler RF Has to be the worst D OF in baseball.

San Diego. Aren't you from there? I watch Kemp miss a fly ball the other day. Just whiffed on it. They have no range.

 

[SilenceS]

I wouldn't bet on that if there's a guy out there they love more than Almora. He an Happ are their only possibilities there from within the system and Almora is a year away at least and Happ a little longer. So they might go looking specially if it's an OBP guy which is going to be sorely missed when Fowler is gone. The Cubs offense picked up when Fowler's OBP started regressing to the mean. His second half OBP is .419 which has gotten him to .350 for the year getting him closer to his .363 lifetime. If you effectively replace him with Baez in the order you're in trouble. Bradley Jr. has been nothing but inconsistent in that category going back to the minors. Sometimes he's been in the high .300's other times he's in the .200's. Maybe Theo knows how to fix that. I don't know. I just said that they might sniff around him. I think the more unlikely thing about a deal like that is on the Boston end. They're going to want veterans, not kids and the Cubs don't have that.

Bradley changed his approach. His approach is made for more power now. Trust me, thats all the Boston announcers talk about.

 

[DanTown]

Pitching wins championships.

Good pitching costs money. Its the only route the cubs have right now because after Arrieta Lester, its garbage downhill with overachieving bottom or rotation talent--which is great--but it cant be something you trot out game 3-4 of any playoff series.

The cubs have nothing formidable in the pipe lines right now. And unless someone makes great strides beyond A+ ball; likely going to stay that way. This is the double edged sword Theo chose. Yeah, great hitting talent all over the place that makes many jealous and envious, but they've gotten lucky with Arrieta; paid top dollar for LEster, and otherwise have a whole lot of overachieving mediocrity. Sorry Hammel, wait no I'm not.

If the cubs had some young kid ready to go, then yeah, focus on Arrieta, focus on the kids. But they dont. Which means either A--Hamel has to perform out of his mind in the playoffs--a likelyhood I dont buy or B--you need a better option and December/January is the time to trade for it or buy it.

That's great that you think that the Cubs need to have three aces in their rotation but it's simply not going to happen dollar wise without major cuts at other positions. If the Cubs were the Dodgers and money wasn't an object then sure, go nuts. But since Ricketts isn't going to spend that kind of money, get a decent SP who won't cost you a draft pick and a ton of years. You have to remember that you also don't have a great bull-pen so while Price would be great, I'd rather get Clippard+a decent starter than Price+some Motte like bullpen arm.

 

[CSF77]

Pitching wins championships.

Good pitching costs money. Its the only route the cubs have right now because after Arrieta Lester, its garbage downhill with overachieving bottom or rotation talent--which is great--but it cant be something you trot out game 3-4 of any playoff series.

The cubs have nothing formidable in the pipe lines right now. And unless someone makes great strides beyond A+ ball; likely going to stay that way. This is the double edged sword Theo chose. Yeah, great hitting talent all over the place that makes many jealous and envious, but they've gotten lucky with Arrieta; paid top dollar for LEster, and otherwise have a whole lot of overachieving mediocrity. Sorry Hammel, wait no I'm not.

If the cubs had some young kid ready to go, then yeah, focus on Arrieta, focus on the kids. But they dont. Which means either A--Hamel has to perform out of his mind in the playoffs--a likelyhood I dont buy or B--you need a better option and December/January is the time to trade for it or buy it.

I would say Price would be an all in answer. He will command 30 mil + per year. To achieve that they would have to lower payroll. Which means most Arb cases would get dropped.

Lets look at it:
Price: 30 mil for argument sake.
Lester: 25 mil
Montero: 14 mil
Hammel 9 mil
Castro 7.8 mil
Rizzo: 5.3 mil
Soler: 3.7 mil
Ross: 2.5 mil
Jackson (13 mil)

That is 112 mil. Arrieta should get a major pay hike. Don't be surprised if he goes from 3.6 mil to 10 mil or higher. Safe bet 10 mil. 122 mil

At that point you have to look at adding a roster.
In Arb:
Strop: 2.5 mil this year. Don't expect a bump up.
Rondon Arb1
Grimm Arb 1
Coghlan Arb 3

So expect Rondon to make 2-3 mil. Grimm 1.5 mil. Coghlan sold IMO. 1 year of control and would cost 3 mil in a part time role. Doubt ful they do that.

So that bumps up pay roll to 127 mil for 12 players. Say they fill in the rest from the farm on avg .500K for 13 players. They are all ready pretty much doing that. 6.5 mil. That would put payroll at 134.5 mil.

I do not see them doing this at all.

But if you trade Castro. This frees up 7.8 mil. That puts payroll around 125 mil which is more realistic for the Rickett's family. Back fill with LaStella.

I believe they will end up having to find a more realistic answer because adding Price takes away too much from the team now and over the long haul. It could mean trading Arrieta away vs keeping him around just because payroll go too over blown.

That is why I felt that going after Bradley and Bucholtz was a more reasonable answer. Both were products from Theo's time. This is no stretch to believe that they would consider it. The clear need on the Red Sox side is an ace to lead the staff. Them going hard after Price I can believe. So what they would need is little. Even if H. Ram ends up at 1B LF in Fenway is a short field. Bradley is wasted there. They are better off getting a good D with power.

But that is just 1 scenario. There have to be other matches going on.

Bottom line is: Cubs have too many pieces and I doubt they are going to continue to pay Castro to platoon. Baez has opened up some eyes at 3B. (makes the early predictors really smart on him). That pushes Bryant to the OF. He has shown to be capable in RF. CF is questionable with Schwarber in LF. Might be too much to ask.

Just the way I look at it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Honestly ask your self: Schwarber LF....Bryant CF....Soler RF Has to be the worst D OF in baseball.

It isn't any worse than what they've thrown out there this year. Your response indicates that Fowler is Gold Glover or something. I'd rather trade Schwarber, but that isn't likely to happen, so he's in LF.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I wouldn't bet on that if there's a guy out there they love more than Almora. He an Happ are their only possibilities there from within the system and Almora is a year away at least and Happ a little longer. So they might go looking specially if it's an OBP guy which is going to be sorely missed when Fowler is gone. The Cubs offense picked up when Fowler's OBP started regressing to the mean. His second half OBP is .419 which has gotten him to .350 for the year getting him closer to his .363 lifetime. If you effectively replace him with Baez in the order you're in trouble. Bradley Jr. has been nothing but inconsistent in that category going back to the minors. Sometimes he's been in the high .300's other times he's in the .200's. Maybe Theo knows how to fix that. I don't know. I just said that they might sniff around him. I think the more unlikely thing about a deal like that is on the Boston end. They're going to want veterans, not kids and the Cubs don't have that.

Almora is not one of the chosen any longer. Happ will be a CF in Wrigley before Almora.