2019-20 MLB Hot Stove thread

[SilenceS]

With the ascension of the Reds, and the Cubs inability to beat them even when they are down.....the Cubs are staring 4th place in the face. I get they are waiting on the Bryant grievance decision....but if we have to watch that SAME TEAM that lost 9 in a row with season on the line...and finished just 6 above .500...it is going to be absolutely brutal this year.

But...you never know in baseball....and we still don't know what's gonna happen after Bryant grievance is determined.

Kk

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

I am a pretty pessimistic person, but I do see a route back to a division title. It'll take most of these things happening.

1) Kimbrel back to dominant form
2) Bryant back to MVP form
3) Schwarber continues to improve
4) Baez healthy
5) Darvish 2nd half Darvish all year
6) Quintana finds a pair of nuts and pitches like a 3rd starter at least
7) Contreras healthy
8) Find some consistent production getting on base out of the leadoff spot, whoever it is

That's a lot of shit that needs to go right. None of those are unlikely or anything, but most of them need to go our way.

 

[anotheridiot]

1)That is not what you described that I called into question.
2) The other best option suggested would be Schwarber who was only just above Rizzo in the taking the extra base metric.

So if that's what worries you, then you'd want Heyward in front of Javy followed by Bryant, Bote, Happ, Contreras, Schwarber, and then Rizzo.

But I seem to remember the one of the biggest problems for the Cubs last year was the number of outs they made trying to take extra bases. I could be wrong on that.

Does not matter with heyward since he rarely is on base. The only thing Heyward leading off an inning does is reduce the chance he hits that hard grounder to second to start a double play.

Does this mean you consider Heyward a more aggressive baserunner than Javy?

 

[anotheridiot]

I am a pretty pessimistic person, but I do see a route back to a division title. It'll take most of these things happening.

1) Kimbrel back to dominant form
2) Bryant back to MVP form
3) Schwarber continues to improve
4) Baez healthy
5) Darvish 2nd half Darvish all year
6) Quintana finds a pair of nuts and pitches like a 3rd starter at least
7) Contreras healthy
8) Find some consistent production getting on base out of the leadoff spot, whoever it is

That's a lot of shit that needs to go right. None of those are unlikely or anything, but most of them need to go our way.

The things that can go right is the team just averages 7 runs a game and holds teams to 5. When the cubs are scoring runs it does not matter who is leading off. It matters more when you are struggling to score 2.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

The things that can go right is the team just averages 7 runs a game and holds teams to 5. When the cubs are scoring runs it does not matter who is leading off. It matters more when you are struggling to score 2.

This is where the clutch thing comes into play, even though I know some people dispute it exists. Heyward is one of the worst playoff hitters in MLB history. That’s not coincidence. He grips the handle of that bat even tighter than he usually does when it’s a big moment. There are a lot of guys on this team that are more likely to have a good game after its 12-2 than if it’s 0-0.

 

[Castor76]

Does not matter with heyward since he rarely is on base. The only thing Heyward leading off an inning does is reduce the chance he hits that hard grounder to second to start a double play.

Does this mean you consider Heyward a more aggressive baserunner than Javy?

First, Heyward gets on base at a better clip than Javy. Second, it doesn't matter what I consider, the numbers say Heyward was better than Javy at taking the extra base. Lastly, my point was that whomever you put in front of Javy is going to be someone who is not very aggressive on the base paths so complaining about it being the guy who has the best chance of putting Javy in the position where his OBP the last three years is .341 is thick headed in my opinion.

I don't care about aggressive. I care about intelligent base running. I care about the Cubs putting together the best line up that gives them the chance to win each day. Most likely Bryant is going to be traded. That means the best 2-3-4-5 for the Cubs is Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras.

 

[anotheridiot]

First, Heyward gets on base at a better clip than Javy. Second, it doesn't matter what I consider, the numbers say Heyward was better than Javy at taking the extra base. Lastly, my point was that whomever you put in front of Javy is going to be someone who is not very aggressive on the base paths so complaining about it being the guy who has the best chance of putting Javy in the position where his OBP the last three years is .341 is thick headed in my opinion.

I don't care about aggressive. I care about intelligent base running. I care about the Cubs putting together the best line up that gives them the chance to win each day. Most likely Bryant is going to be traded. That means the best 2-3-4-5 for the Cubs is Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras.

OK, intelligent base running, lose one run games. How many one run games have there been lost over the past 2 or 3 years? Maybe they will start teaching common sense as a prerequisite for graduation.
Javy can drive in runs. Well, yeah, because he goes up there in a position to drive in a run and he drives them in. Hit a fair ball and you are batting .350, driving in runs. It would be so much better if he would not get those hits swinging at pitchers pitches and taking walks instead.
Gaudy OBP numbers because a guy in an RBI position takes a walk. Nothing different than pitching around them. We all know Heyward cannot handle the pressure, cant leadoff, cant force him to hit second like his first season disaster here, he hits, they move him up and he shuts down. He is a prototypical 7 or 8 hitter. Might as well just make him 9th.
You know why Rizzo is a good leadoff guy, just that reason, he will watch the third strike instead of trying to shoot it somewhere they are not defending, or take that walk and put it on the next guy.

Has not worked for 3 years, no reason it wont start working now, right?

 

[TL1961]

OK, intelligent base running, lose one run games. How many one run games have there been lost over the past 2 or 3 years? Maybe they will start teaching common sense as a prerequisite for graduation.
Javy can drive in runs. Well, yeah, because he goes up there in a position to drive in a run and he drives them in. Hit a fair ball and you are batting .350, driving in runs. It would be so much better if he would not get those hits swinging at pitchers pitches and taking walks instead.
Gaudy OBP numbers because a guy in an RBI position takes a walk. Nothing different than pitching around them. We all know Heyward cannot handle the pressure, cant leadoff, cant force him to hit second like his first season disaster here, he hits, they move him up and he shuts down. He is a prototypical 7 or 8 hitter. Might as well just make him 9th.
You know why Rizzo is a good leadoff guy, just that reason, he will watch the third strike instead of trying to shoot it somewhere they are not defending, or take that walk and put it on the next guy.

Has not worked for 3 years, no reason it wont start working now, right?

I’ve had a long day. Maybe I am misreading.

Did you say the reason Rizzo is a good leadoff hitter is because he will take a third strike rather than walk? Or hit it where they ain’t?

 

[Castor76]

OK, intelligent base running, lose one run games. How many one run games have there been lost over the past 2 or 3 years? Maybe they will start teaching common sense as a prerequisite for graduation.
Javy can drive in runs. Well, yeah, because he goes up there in a position to drive in a run and he drives them in. Hit a fair ball and you are batting .350, driving in runs. It would be so much better if he would not get those hits swinging at pitchers pitches and taking walks instead.
Gaudy OBP numbers because a guy in an RBI position takes a walk. Nothing different than pitching around them. We all know Heyward cannot handle the pressure, cant leadoff, cant force him to hit second like his first season disaster here, he hits, they move him up and he shuts down. He is a prototypical 7 or 8 hitter. Might as well just make him 9th.
You know why Rizzo is a good leadoff guy, just that reason, he will watch the third strike instead of trying to shoot it somewhere they are not defending, or take that walk and put it on the next guy.

Has not worked for 3 years, no reason it wont start working now, right?

You live up to your handle.

In those one run games you care so much about, the Cubs were 19-27 last season. Not good. Year before, 26-25. Year before that, 26-17. That's good. What about 2016. Remember what the Cubs did that year? Why they only had a 22-23 record in ONE RUN GAMES. How did they win the Series?

I've never said Heyward should be anything but a 7 or 8 hitter. I'm just pointing out that if Javy's going to be the #3 hitter, which I think he should be, then, because Bryant is probably going to get traded, Javy is going to have Rizzo and Schwarber batting on each side of him. Complaining about that makes no sense to me. You're complaining about a guy who hits safe;y the past 3 seasons only about 27% of the time when no one is one and reaches safely 30% versus a guy who hits safely 29% of the time and reaches safely 35% of the time with RISP.

I understand the mindset of a walk has never driven in a runner from 2nd base. But now you're changing the argument. You went from "I don't some slow ass, station-to-station guy in front of Javy because it means Javy can't be aggressive and take an extra base. " to "I don't want guys batting in front of Javy that may get Javy to take a walk instead of swinging the bat."

 

[Raskolnikov]

You live up to your handle.

In those one run games you care so much about, the Cubs were 19-27 last season. Not good. Year before, 26-25. Year before that, 26-17. That's good. What about 2016. Remember what the Cubs did that year? Why they only had a 22-23 record in ONE RUN GAMES. How did they win the Series?

I've never said Heyward should be anything but a 7 or 8 hitter. I'm just pointing out that if Javy's going to be the #3 hitter, which I think he should be, then, because Bryant is probably going to get traded, Javy is going to have Rizzo and Schwarber batting on each side of him. Complaining about that makes no sense to me. You're complaining about a guy who hits safe;y the past 3 seasons only about 27% of the time when no one is one and reaches safely 30% versus a guy who hits safely 29% of the time and reaches safely 35% of the time with RISP.

I understand the mindset of a walk has never driven in a runner from 2nd base. But now you're changing the argument. You went from "I don't some slow ass, station-to-station guy in front of Javy because it means Javy can't be aggressive and take an extra base. " to "I don't want guys batting in front of Javy that may get Javy to take a walk instead of swinging the bat."

wah wah wah

 

[beckdawg]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1216092393914675200

Well that is quite the rumor

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1216092393914675200

Well that is quite the rumor

while that would be fun, it’d probably be a bad move

 

[beckdawg]

Appears it was a miscommunication on Levine's part.

 

[Raskolnikov]

while that would be fun, it’d probably be a bad move

Acquiring a top 10 player in baseball is never a bad move. They can move Bryant later.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Acquiring a top 10 player in baseball is never a bad move. They can move Bryant later.

Looking at his road splits, he's never hit like a top 10 player on the road. Not one single year.

You know you can't guarantee he would keep hitting like he does at Coors if he never played at Coors. It's just not knowable. It's unlikely though.

 

[anotheridiot]

You live up to your handle.

In those one run games you care so much about, the Cubs were 19-27 last season. Not good. Year before, 26-25. Year before that, 26-17. That's good. What about 2016. Remember what the Cubs did that year? Why they only had a 22-23 record in ONE RUN GAMES. How did they win the Series?

I've never said Heyward should be anything but a 7 or 8 hitter. I'm just pointing out that if Javy's going to be the #3 hitter, which I think he should be, then, because Bryant is probably going to get traded, Javy is going to have Rizzo and Schwarber batting on each side of him. Complaining about that makes no sense to me. You're complaining about a guy who hits safe;y the past 3 seasons only about 27% of the time when no one is one and reaches safely 30% versus a guy who hits safely 29% of the time and reaches safely 35% of the time with RISP.

I understand the mindset of a walk has never driven in a runner from 2nd base. But now you're changing the argument. You went from "I don't some slow ass, station-to-station guy in front of Javy because it means Javy can't be aggressive and take an extra base. " to "I don't want guys batting in front of Javy that may get Javy to take a walk instead of swinging the bat."

You are too smart to understand idiot metrics.

Simple response to the first paragraph, how many games did they miss the division title and an off day in 2018 and how many games did they miss the playoffs by last year. Idiot metrics are, a handfull.

Your second and third paragraph are about the same thing. No, you never said Heyward should be anything but a 7 or 8 hitter, I did. If Heyward could handle the pressure, I would say leadoff or second, especially if they are going to run again, but he cannot handle pressure like he can handle his check book. They kept the 26 million dollar man hitting second in 2015, they did not pick up until he got dropped in the order.

You clearly did not understand the Javy walk place. They let Javy leadoff two games in a row before he got hurt and he walked twice in one of those games. I never mentioned anything about Javy taking walks in RBI positions. Our problem has been that the guys in the RBI positions are willing to take walks instead of forcing the issue. That puts Javy in the place that he has to bat in the RBI positions because the other guys dont force the issue. If there is a runner to be driven in, Javy wants to drive in that run. Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant, more interested in keeping OBP up and settling for a walk. But Rizzo, Schwarber and Bryant have not shown that they can drive pitchers pitches to the wall either.

You want to mix all those one run game research numbers into how many runners have been left in scoring position, I think you will see the idiot metrics. I am pretty sure guys like Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant and Heyward have some gaudy numbers there too. And its simple stuff too, like dont pull the ball and GIDP when the pitcher is throwing away and you can serve it against the shift and keep an inning going.

 

[knoxville7]

Looking at his road splits, he's never hit like a top 10 player on the road. Not one single year.

You know you can't guarantee he would keep hitting like he does at Coors if he never played at Coors. It's just not knowable. It's unlikely though.

Look at his numbers in miller park doe ?

 

[Castor76]

You are too smart to understand idiot metrics.

Simple response to the first paragraph, how many games did they miss the division title and an off day in 2018 and how many games did they miss the playoffs by last year. Idiot metrics are, a handfull.

Your second and third paragraph are about the same thing. No, you never said Heyward should be anything but a 7 or 8 hitter, I did. If Heyward could handle the pressure, I would say leadoff or second, especially if they are going to run again, but he cannot handle pressure like he can handle his check book. They kept the 26 million dollar man hitting second in 2015, they did not pick up until he got dropped in the order.

You clearly did not understand the Javy walk place. They let Javy leadoff two games in a row before he got hurt and he walked twice in one of those games. I never mentioned anything about Javy taking walks in RBI positions. Our problem has been that the guys in the RBI positions are willing to take walks instead of forcing the issue. That puts Javy in the place that he has to bat in the RBI positions because the other guys dont force the issue. If there is a runner to be driven in, Javy wants to drive in that run. Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant, more interested in keeping OBP up and settling for a walk. But Rizzo, Schwarber and Bryant have not shown that they can drive pitchers pitches to the wall either.

You want to mix all those one run game research numbers into how many runners have been left in scoring position, I think you will see the idiot metrics. I am pretty sure guys like Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant and Heyward have some gaudy numbers there too. And its simple stuff too, like dont pull the ball and GIDP when the pitcher is throwing away and you can serve it against the shift and keep an inning going.

The Javy walk place was a 2 game sample size. You point out that Javy is looking to drive in runs with RISP but yet the numbers say that when there are RISP, he's much more willing to take a walk as represented by his increase in the difference between his BA and OBP in the 2 instances of none one versus RISP. So even Javy doesn't agree with your argument.

 

[anotheridiot]

The Javy walk place was a 2 game sample size. You point out that Javy is looking to drive in runs with RISP but yet the numbers say that when there are RISP, he's much more willing to take a walk as represented by his increase in the difference between his BA and OBP in the 2 instances of none one versus RISP. So even Javy doesn't agree with your argument.

I dont know. You put Javy in the mindset to get on base and create havoc, he will do it. You know, like the international competitions he plays in for Puerto Rico. You put him in the mindset of I have to drive in runs, that is what he goes for.
People say Rizzo is best for leadoff, but do not complain when he tries to leadoff with a home run and not do the job of creating offense for the players behind him. Bat Javy 4th or 5th and he knows there is nobody behind him to drive anything in.
Its a simple game. The great ones make it simple. The ones squeezing sawdust from their bat handles are floating in numbers. Its a simple eye test with Javy. With everyone else, you gotta go dissect numbers to prove they are doing it right.

 

[CSF77]

People say Rizzo is best for leadoff, but do not complain when he tries to leadoff with a home run and not do the job of creating offense for the players behind him.

So scoring is a bad thing?