2019-20 MLB Hot Stove thread

[anotheridiot]

Billionaires become billionaires, and stay billionaires, by making smart business decisions. I'm not opposed to going over the tax, but it has to be smart. It is always bad business to use the profits of one business to support the losses of another business. Just look how the Tribune company treated the Cubs for so long. Trading Bryant is probably the best thing for the team.

Billionaires stay billionaires watching their team win the world series with a middle of the pack payroll with developed talent, then stopping the guru of developed players from handing out a half a billion worth of long term deals to players that were not developed.
I really highly doubt Ricketts will have any trouble going over tax if it is for a team based around Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contrares, hopefully a couple of our own pitchers when the time comes. Its the heywards, darvishes and every other 200 million dollar out there that fucks up this broth.

 

[Castor76]

Billionaires stay billionaires watching their team win the world series with a middle of the pack payroll with developed talent, then stopping the guru of developed players from handing out a half a billion worth of long term deals to players that were not developed.
I really highly doubt Ricketts will have any trouble going over tax if it is for a team based around Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contrares, hopefully a couple of our own pitchers when the time comes. Its the heywards, darvishes and every other 200 million dollar out there that fucks up this broth.

Really? Name those teams. Because the most successful teams the past few years have either all had top payrolls or have been cheating their asses off and getting caught at it or had a 2-3 year run when they had most of their team on rookie deals followed by a return to being bad.

Do bad contracts hinder success? Yep, but looking at Heyward's numbers the previous seasons, who was saying he was overpaid and by how much really? Then when you look at what really happened in that 2017 World Series, Darvish has spent the past two seasons trying to mentally overcome that he cost his team a title because he was "tipping" his pitches. He seemed to have gotten there in the 2nd half of last season. Heyward hasn't lived up to the contract, but his OBP and SLG have each increased every year since 2016. He's been all over the line up. He's actually had decent success in the 2, 5, and 6 slots. Most players aren't going to give you sweetheart deals where you get them like Rizzo. With the price of pitching this offseason, the Cubs are lucky he didn't opt out in a way because he could have gotten a pay increase. 21M a year isn't that bad a price in today's market.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

while Darvish’s stock is looking up, they got nothing from him in 2018, and they tied for the divisional lead. So that decision pretty obviously cost them the divisional title in 2018.

that team wasn’t great, but I’d rather have a divisional title than not have one now looking back. And any other use of that Darvish 2018 money and they likely win the division. Even Jake Arrieta was worth like 3 WAR that year.

 

[Castor76]

while Darvish’s stock is looking up, they got nothing from him in 2018, and they tied for the divisional lead. So that decision pretty obviously cost them the divisional title in 2018.

that team wasn’t great, but I’d rather have a divisional title than not have one now looking back. And any other use of that Darvish 2018 money and they likely win the division. Even Jake Arrieta was worth like 3 WAR that year.

And if the reports are true, they offered that money to Jake first and he said no. So how is that on Theo? And the Cubs lost the 2018 as much because they had so many rain outs and had that longs stretch where they had to play everyday. They could have been better off losing one more game in the regular season so they don't have the single game playoff with the Brewers for the division title just so they could get that one day off to reset mentally.

Since 2016, they made an NLCS, made the the playoffs but went in exhausted, and finally had a "bad" year.

 

[CSF77]

That discussion is pointless. Theo made the right choice with Yu. A contract's value is weighed over the run of it's length. 2018 was just 1 year of value. Players get injured all of the time. That is part of being a athlete. Pitchers more so. What matters is he was healthy last year and made the corrections needed to push a dominate 2nd half.

So over all things are looking up on that front.

Anyways Yu is the least of the Cubs worries. The rest of the staff is far more suspect going into 2020.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

And if the reports are true, they offered that money to Jake first and he said no. So how is that on Theo? And the Cubs lost the 2018 as much because they had so many rain outs and had that longs stretch where they had to play everyday. They could have been better off losing one more game in the regular season so they don't have the single game playoff with the Brewers for the division title just so they could get that one day off to reset mentally.

Since 2016, they made an NLCS, made the the playoffs but went in exhausted, and finally had a "bad" year.

if you piece together the stories Theo and Jake told, it seems pretty obvious Theo didn’t handle that well or really didn’t want Jake back. This guy was a massive, maybe the largest piece of their 2016 World Series title. 2 road wins and he’s the one that led them to the valuable experience in 2015 that likely helped us break through in 2016.

and if Theo is to be believed, he waited until February and called a player integral to the franchise and offered him a take it or leave it offer. Jake rightfully was upset at that and left it.

Then Theo negotiated a contract with Yu.

My issues are with how late in the off season this happened and how it was a take it or leave it. Why? Why not negotiate like you were willing to do with Yu.

I realize this is how Jake described the exchange, but I don’t see why he would lie and Theo certainly did not dispute the account of the exchange.

personally I think one of the best pitchers in franchise history deserved better. And he seemed like he thought so too. So we lost the division in 2018 without him.

To be clear, Yu looks like the better contract going forward. But 2018 likely works out much better for us with Jake. And I don’t understand the rationale for Theo’s behavior with him either. What if he had accepted? He clearly preferred Darvish.

 

[anotheridiot]

And if the reports are true, they offered that money to Jake first and he said no. So how is that on Theo? And the Cubs lost the 2018 as much because they had so many rain outs and had that longs stretch where they had to play everyday. They could have been better off losing one more game in the regular season so they don't have the single game playoff with the Brewers for the division title just so they could get that one day off to reset mentally.

Since 2016, they made an NLCS, made the the playoffs but went in exhausted, and finally had a "bad" year.

I took it more of Jake starting with that 175 number in his head since John got what, 150 or so, and Theo never budged on it. When Jake took his time accepting the 125, Theo had little choice but to take the shit or get off the pot attitude.
I dont think the physical had anything to do with Jake, his mind got completely fucked by his agent and he is just about never going to make it back.

That discussion is pointless. Theo made the right choice with Yu. A contract's value is weighed over the run of it's length. 2018 was just 1 year of value. Players get injured all of the time. That is part of being a athlete. Pitchers more so. What matters is he was healthy last year and made the corrections needed to push a dominate 2nd half.

So over all things are looking up on that front.

Anyways Yu is the least of the Cubs worries. The rest of the staff is far more suspect going into 2020.

As far as this? Yu was off his game a year and a half and never did well under playoff pressure. There is no way to say that this discussion is pointless, or Yu was the right choice. All we got out of 2 years was a half year of decent pitching, still tries to strike everyone out, which leads to 100 pitches in the 4th inning and no playoff appearances at all to show he can be that stopper.
Darvish was crazy to not opt out this year and get another 40 guaranteed on the back end. He will end his career on one year deals.

 

[CSF77]

I took it more of Jake starting with that 175 number in his head since John got what, 150 or so, and Theo never budged on it. When Jake took his time accepting the 125, Theo had little choice but to take the shit or get off the pot attitude.
I dont think the physical had anything to do with Jake, his mind got completely fucked by his agent and he is just about never going to make it back.



As far as this? Yu was off his game a year and a half and never did well under playoff pressure. There is no way to say that this discussion is pointless, or Yu was the right choice. All we got out of 2 years was a half year of decent pitching, still tries to strike everyone out, which leads to 100 pitches in the 4th inning and no playoff appearances at all to show he can be that stopper.
Darvish was crazy to not opt out this year and get another 40 guaranteed on the back end. He will end his career on one year deals.

Astros were stealing his signs. So no you are wrong on that point.

2nd his first year he was dealing from a injury that he tried to pitch through. Eventually the shut him down.

So the struggle was a 1/2 of a year because he was finally 100% again but due to pitching injured for that long he was compensating his delivery mechanic previously. So that compensation was working against him over the first half.

The struggle was more so a relearning process. Once he was mechanically sound again he started to add new pitches like a split and a knuckle curve to his arsonall.

So your opinion is uninformed at best.

 

[CSF77]

if you piece together the stories Theo and Jake told, it seems pretty obvious Theo didn’t handle that well or really didn’t want Jake back. This guy was a massive, maybe the largest piece of their 2016 World Series title. 2 road wins and he’s the one that led them to the valuable experience in 2015 that likely helped us break through in 2016.

and if Theo is to be believed, he waited until February and called a player integral to the franchise and offered him a take it or leave it offer. Jake rightfully was upset at that and left it.

Then Theo negotiated a contract with Yu.

My issues are with how late in the off season this happened and how it was a take it or leave it. Why? Why not negotiate like you were willing to do with Yu.

I realize this is how Jake described the exchange, but I don’t see why he would lie and Theo certainly did not dispute the account of the exchange.

personally I think one of the best pitchers in franchise history deserved better. And he seemed like he thought so too. So we lost the division in 2018 without him.

To be clear, Yu looks like the better contract going forward. But 2018 likely works out much better for us with Jake. And I don’t understand the rationale for Theo’s behavior with him either. What if he had accepted? He clearly preferred Darvish.

Jake was never going to take a team friendly deal. Theo knew this but offered Jake it anyways.

The reality is any player that takes Scott Boras as a agent is a Merc at the end of the day. There is little loyality involved in the process. It is more about the top bidder for their services.

 

[CSF77]

So the reality here is this:

The Astros screwed Yu and lowered his F/A value.

Jake wanted his payday.

Yu could have opted out after his strong 2nd half but decided to fulfill his contract with the Cubs even though it is under market for his talent.

Strasberg took a pillow deal at first due to his injury and after his big season opted out to get the bigger pay day.

There is a basic mentality trend going on here with Boras vs non Boras players.

This is the underlying reason why Theo is looking to retain Baez and trade Bryant. It is not about talent it is about Boras and how any player that ties into him is the same cat.

 

[anotheridiot]

Astros were stealing his signs. So no you are wrong on that point.

2nd his first year he was dealing from a injury that he tried to pitch through. Eventually the shut him down.

So the struggle was a 1/2 of a year because he was finally 100% again but due to pitching injured for that long he was compensating his delivery mechanic previously. So that compensation was working against him over the first half.

The struggle was more so a relearning process. Once he was mechanically sound again he started to add new pitches like a split and a knuckle curve to his arsonall.

So your opinion is uninformed at best.

Blame the astro's. When Kershaw pitches, are you expecting anything straight?

what are the results, not excuses, results. He is 7-11 over 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 who gave up 33 home runs last year. 31 starts last year, 14 decisions. Gotta do better than that.

He did not leave because he was more concerned about not getting an offer that would have extended his guaranteed money longer.

He cant control his 6 pitches well enough, he chooses to throw 10 different ones.

Keep digging, I know you convinced yourself you are right, its going to take a while for the rest of us.

 

[CSF77]

Blame the astro's. When Kershaw pitches, are you expecting anything straight?

what are the results, not excuses, results. He is 7-11 over 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 who gave up 33 home runs last year. 31 starts last year, 14 decisions. Gotta do better than that.

He did not leave because he was more concerned about not getting an offer that would have extended his guaranteed money longer.

He cant control his 6 pitches well enough, he chooses to throw 10 different ones.

Keep digging, I know you convinced yourself you are right, its going to take a while for the rest of us.

The facts > opinions

1st half:. 5.01 ERA
2nd half: 2.76 ERA

Add to it he walked only 7 guys over 81 IP.

So he figured it out. The numbers back this.

So IMO it is time to open your mind to the possibility that Theo made the right choice and his value should be based off of a contract duration vs a injury stint.

We can say the same about Kimbrel. We got a guy that didn't look like the guy Theo paid for. But missing a half a season will do that.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Astros were stealing his signs. So no you are wrong on that point.

2nd his first year he was dealing from a injury that he tried to pitch through. Eventually the shut him down.

So the struggle was a 1/2 of a year because he was finally 100% again but due to pitching injured for that long he was compensating his delivery mechanic previously. So that compensation was working against him over the first half.

The struggle was more so a relearning process. Once he was mechanically sound again he started to add new pitches like a split and a knuckle curve to his arsonall.

So your opinion is uninformed at best.

astros cheating or not, Yu is not the guy I want on the mound in a do or die game. He is too sensitive. That’s not a knock on him as a person, but it is a knock on him on a very wealthy baseball player that is paid to be a winner. End of story.

He said he thought about retiring because he didn’t want his kids to be made fun of for his effort. That might make him a good parent, but it makes him a pretty unreliable baseball player in big moments. Jake Arrieta woulda trolled people back on twitter while laughing. And we know how he does in big games.

On the ‘bright’ side, Theo has mismanaged this roster so much that we might not have to worry about Yu choking in big games because there likely won’t be any.

 

[CSF77]

Your hate blinds you.

 

[Castor76]

It's being said that you wouldn't want Yu out there in a pressure spot, but I think it's over shadowed by the cheating that Houston did. In his two starts in the NL playoffs he gave up 2 runs total, 1 walk, and 14 Ks. He didn't pitch long but it wasn't because of a over abundance of pitches.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

It's being said that you wouldn't want Yu out there in a pressure spot, but I think it's over shadowed by the cheating that Houston did. In his two starts in the NL playoffs he gave up 2 runs total, 1 walk, and 14 Ks. He didn't pitch long but it wasn't because of a over abundance of pitches.

cubs had just won 5 games in a row to improve to 82-68 last year. Home game against the reds. It was a big game, obviously. Darvish takes the mound and gives up a crooked number in the first and then strikes everyone out after that, but the damage was done. Cubs couldn’t get out of the hole he dug. That was the end of the season basically.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

I’m sure will take issue with being critical of that, but they had won 5 straight games in blowout fashion. Then 1 out into the game they’re down 3-0. They were never once a confident baseball team that year after that. That was the start of the 9 game losing streak.

He ain’t the guy you want on the hill with the season on the line. Too emotionally fragile, just like Quintana.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs would have been knocked out anyways. You are making a mountain out of a molehill

The real problem going on with the Cubs is simple. Theo drained the tank trying to win in a window. Right now they are feeling the repercussions of it.

To add to this their inability to draft and self develop pitching that lead them to spending payroll and talent into other teams development in pitching.

This is a issue going forward and will continue to happen until they are able to self develop pitching.

So your issue with Yu is pointless bitching about a player that pretty much has finally played up to his value. And now you are finding more reasons to justify your hate of the guy.

It is sad really.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Cubs would have been knocked out anyways. You are making a mountain out of a molehill

The real problem going on with the Cubs is simple. Theo drained the tank trying to win in a window. Right now they are feeling the repercussions of it.

To add to this their inability to draft and self develop pitching that lead them to spending payroll and talent into other teams development in pitching.

This is a issue going forward and will continue to happen until they are able to self develop pitching.

So your issue with Yu is pointless bitching about a player that pretty much has finally played up to his value. And now you are finding more reasons to justify your hate of the guy.

It is sad really.

Only intellectually stunted people focus on all these buzz words like hate and spending time talking about whether strangers hate or love some player they’ve never met.

Yu seems like a nice guy. He’s not who you want on the mound in a big game. So much hate. lol.

Besides, if a player sucks, I’d never blame the player anyway. Really falls on Theo.

 

[Castor76]

Lot of lamenting on the Cubs not winning more with this team. Well, this isn't the late 90s when baseball had no limit or restriction on spending so you can get a Yankee dynasty. Nor is it a 10-14 SFG situation where the Giants just got red hot in the playoffs. Remember, the best team record wise in that run was a 94 win team. 2 of those teams has run differentials around +60.

Point being, the Cubs have done as well as any of the of WS winners who came just before them. The 13 Red Sox had two losing seasons before bouncing back in 2016 with a 93 win season. 14 Giants had 2 seasons just above .500 and then fell below. About the same for the Royals. Cubs had 92 wins, 97 wins, and 84 wins.