The problem is how badly you and the others minimize Cutler. Even Cutler as he is, with no improvement gives you a chance to beat better teams and can win you games, and he doesn't have 2 clunkers in a row usually. He is at worst at the very bottom of the top 3rd of the leage in quarterbacks. You franchise him to buy time while you get a rookie set up behind him to take over in 2014. If you just outright replace him, it sends a message to the locker room that you aren't trying to win a Superbowl that year. And with the defense aging, you are trying to at least catch lightning in a bottle.
It'd be different if this weren't a 10 win team with a great but aging defense. If this were a young team, or a team that just flat out sucked and you were moving people out of the way to restart the culture, then I'd be all on board for just saying "the hell with it" IF I did not think Cutler was the guy.
But this team in this scenario at this time?
Damn right, lock Cutler up, at least in the short term.
Bottom of the top 3rd at worst? that is fairly delusional if you really look at it. I would say bottom of the top 3rd
at best.
Keep in mind, your qualifier is "at worst"..... even if you consider the past 4 years worst case, you can put him solidly behind Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, Manning2, Schaub, Romo, Rivers, Roethlisberger.... Those are all guys who have outperformed Cutler every year for the most part. There is really no arguing that point.
A heavy case can be made for Flacco being better, and he will seperate himself from the middle of the pack this year.
Then you have Luck, Wilson, RG3, and Kaepernick that may very well continue to be just as good as they were last year.
Stafford with a year closer to 2011 than 2012 would be a shoe in as the better player as well... apples to apples I currently give stafford the edge for 2 reasons- stafford with 4 years in the league had a season far and away better than Cutlers best and he followed it up with a lesser season that was on par with Cutlers best.
That is a list of 16 guys that have been undoubtedly better than Cutler the last few years, so i believe that Cutler as it stands is treading water in the newton, fitzpatrick, Bradford, Freeman, Smith, Ponder group. At worst he falls behind those guys.
It is hard to hear that as a bears fan but all excuses aside and just looking at a production standpiont, that is where he is. at the end of the day, we are talking about a 7 year vet that has never hit the 2-1 int to td ratio, has never had a 30 plus td season (nor has he ever been on pace to) and additionally, he has not shown that he can go in to game manager mode to minimize the turnovers and keep a lead safe.
As for franchising him, based on the situation of this team, I go the exact opposite way. Had lovie and Co. been extended (tice doesn't factor in- take or leave him given the bears OC hiring history) i could see an argument for keeping Cutler around a year when drafting a rookie. Lovie does tend to be able to get the most out of the D, so there was always hope for a defensive season like last year or 2010.
The Reality of the Bears situation is this- The Packers have a stranglehold on the division, the best passer in the league, and a penchant for being able to fill the voids of FA losses. There is the very real nightmare scenario that they actually find a running back that is functional.... and if the find one that is actually decent the Packers are going to be unstoppable.
The Vikings are up and comers, if ponder improves (which I actually believe he will this year) they become a scary team. If ponder hits mediocre, the Vikings will be very hard to beat.
The lions are..... the lions. as always, awesome on paper but I have no faith in them.
So in my opinion, I would rather see the this entire new FO take 2013 to evaluate the team and be decisive. If Cutler stinks up the field or continues to produce at the level he has been producing at, fuck the franchise tag- launch him and show the team and the city that you are commited to building a team that will take control of the division. Commit to a new vision and build it.
If he has a good year and you think he can keep it up and finally capitalize on his potential, lock his ass up for 5 years and build around him.
I don't buy the wishy washy "lets keep him here as a safety blanket so we can maybe possibly sneak in to the playoffs" bullshit.
Lovie and Angelo were fired for a reason- their vision did not work and it was time to move the fuck on. since 2006, the Bears have conservatively tweaked the same vision hoping to catch another lucky year but never really making bold moves (sorry- trading for Cutler was not a bold move when it was orton and grossman you were replacing. they could have traded them for a new gatorade bucket and it would have been an improvement).
The LAST thing i want to see is an entire new front office with fresh ideas piss away the opportunity to build a modern NFL team and continue to tweak the lovie-angelo vision in hopes of a wildcard berth.
In 2014, Trestman will have a year of evaluation for what he has got to work with under his belt- at that point I want to see him commit to building his vision for better or worse. Sign Cutler long term or ship him off. period. Anything else is spineless and shows a severe lack of belief in your abilities to assess talent and build a team.