Brewers at Cubs IST

[bamainatlanta]

Whatever happened with Happ? He completely fell apart after mid July

 

[Diehardfan]

It's not just him, it's damn near everybody....when this team stops hitting, it becomes a team wide plague.

 

[jooo83]

It's not just him, it's damn near everybody....when this team stops hitting, it becomes a team wide plague.

Sad but truth. Bryant and Rizzo are the leaders of this offense and they need to step it up.

 

[beckdawg]

Sad but truth. Bryant and Rizzo are the leaders of this offense and they need to step it up.

I think it's a multitude of things. For one thing the cubs haven't been all that healthy. Bryant missed large portions of the season. Heywards been out off and on....etc. Now in theory the cubs have the depth to cover that but the problem as I see it is that depth is young. And young players are notoriously inconsistent. That's usually because they have some flaw in their game and sooner or later pitching finds it. That's where guys like Rizzo and Bryant are suppose to carry the team through but Rizzo had his own issues early in the season and Bryant was hurt. Heyward played pretty well at the start of the season but he's never going to be a bat that carries your line up. Likewise, Zobrist has been fantastic this year but he's more of a guy that gets on base rather than a prototypical run producer.

That's the blessing and the curse of this team being so young. You love it because you have a core who will be together for a long time but at the same time it's tough because when things aren't working it's difficult for them to put it all together. You look back on that 2016 team and it's easy to forget but that team had Cogs who played a big role. Fowler was a vet. Ross was a vet. Montero was a vet. Heyward despite being shitty that year was a vet. So really you were only looking at Soler occasionally in LF, Bryant at 3B, Russell at SS and sometimes Baez at 2B as the only real youth in the line up. Cogs and Zobrist played enough that LF and 2B you could sorta work around slumps. Russell was there for his glove and hitting didn't really matter. And Bryant was the franchise type bat you expected. Compare that to this year and especially when Bryant hasn't been in the line up the youth is far more prominent.

 

[jooo83]

I think it's a multitude of things. For one thing the cubs haven't been all that healthy. Bryant missed large portions of the season. Heywards been out off and on....etc. Now in theory the cubs have the depth to cover that but the problem as I see it is that depth is young. And young players are notoriously inconsistent. That's usually because they have some flaw in their game and sooner or later pitching finds it. That's where guys like Rizzo and Bryant are suppose to carry the team through but Rizzo had his own issues early in the season and Bryant was hurt. Heyward played pretty well at the start of the season but he's never going to be a bat that carries your line up. Likewise, Zobrist has been fantastic this year but he's more of a guy that gets on base rather than a prototypical run producer.

That's the blessing and the curse of this team being so young. You love it because you have a core who will be together for a long time but at the same time it's tough because when things aren't working it's difficult for them to put it all together. You look back on that 2016 team and it's easy to forget but that team had Cogs who played a big role. Fowler was a vet. Ross was a vet. Montero was a vet. Heyward despite being shitty that year was a vet. So really you were only looking at Soler occasionally in LF, Bryant at 3B, Russell at SS and sometimes Baez at 2B as the only real youth in the line up. Cogs and Zobrist played enough that LF and 2B you could sorta work around slumps. Russell was there for his glove and hitting didn't really matter. And Bryant was the franchise type bat you expected. Compare that to this year and especially when Bryant hasn't been in the line up the youth is far more prominent.

What are your thoughts on Chili Davis?

 

[jooo83]

Great performance from Quintana. Now let's get some more runs.

 

[PickSix]

Solid Mr Wilson. Thank you,

 

[Diehardfan]

Wow!!! Wilson with some high heat!!!

 

[TL1961]

I was expressing my disappointment with Q a month ago, as I expected a big year. But he has rebounded lately, and tonight’s performance was outstanding! And timely!

 

[Diehardfan]

I'd really like to know when these guys will start swinging at strikes....looking at a lot of them tonight.

 

[Diehardfan]

Ok, you Caratini bashers....wait a second....that would be me.

LOL

 

[Diehardfan]

It would be a real nice change of pace if whoever comes in here to pitch doesn't walk anybody.

 

[jooo83]

Happ looks totally lost.

 

[TL1961]

Happ looks totally lost.

But I just read a swing adjustment was going to lead to a breakout.

 

[TL1961]

It would be a real nice change of pace if whoever comes in here to pitch doesn't walk anybody.

Amen!

 

[Diehardfan]

But I just read a swing adjustment was going to lead to a breakout.

Only works when you actually swing the bat....the best pitch to hit that he saw was called strike 3.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Ok, you Caratini bashers....wait a second....that would be me.

LOL

Ditto

 

[beckdawg]

What are your thoughts on Chili Davis?

I think we need a bit longer to judge but initially I like some of what I'm seeing. I'm a firm believer in outcome based baseball. That's a fancy way of saying I believe in roughly 4 things as it pertains to hitting. Those are K rate, BB rate, ISO and BABIP. For most players if you know those factors you can tell how good a hitter is. I will mention that Baez doesn't fit neatly in those. His numbers don't quite match what you would expect as far as outcomes but he's more an exception than the rule.

As for those 4 categories, BABIP is sorta static and isn't really something you can improve but what it does do is account for faster players and to an extent players who smoke the ball as it's harder to field those balls. That being said, coaching really shouldn't have an impact on BABIP. And if we look at 2017 vs 2018 it's largely the case at .305 in 2017 and .322 in 2018 most of which I think has to do with Baez.

As for the other 3, last year they were 10.3%/21.1% and.190 and in 2018 they are 9.6%/20.6% and .165 as a team. So, the initial takeaway here is power is down a fair amount based on that iso with K's down and walks slightly down. My read on that is that they are changing the way the team approaches at bats. The pre-2018 teams were largely 3 true outcome hitters who would either walk, homer or strike out. I'm not a fan of that style of play. There are pluses and minuses to it. The pro side is it can be a great way to score runs. It's largely the style of play that fueled the steroid era. The down side is it's really not a consistent way to score and you can end up where the cubs did so much last year where you'd get guys on and no one could hit the single to get them home.

This year's team is apparently very focused on putting the ball into play more. They've shaved about 0.7% off their walk rate and a similar amount off their K rate. I would also point out that the cubs non-pitchers have 1099 K's in 5340 PAs which is where that 20.6% k rate comes from. However, Happ has 154 in 421. You remove him from the equation and that comes down to 945 in 4919 which is a 19.2% K rate. League average for non-pitchers is 20.6%. So with the exception of Happ who clearly has strugged this year, you've seen a lot of progress made in reducing the k rates of cubs hitters. Baez has gone from 28.1% to 25.3%. Schwarber has gone from 28.9% to 27.2%. Russell has gone from 24% to 21%....etc.

That's the good side of things. You'd probably need someone more in tune with swing mechanics to talk about this point but what appears to have happened from a statistical stand point is selling power for that K rate improvement which is why the ISO has fallen. Obviously more power is better but I'm a believer in guys finding power when they make good contact. Take Jose Altuve. That guy shouldn't be a 25 HR hitter at 5' 6" / 165 but because he makes great contact enough balls leave the yard. I think the cubs are still in the process of changing that approach so I don't necessarily think they are there yet. But I think the end goal will help them.

And just speaking as a fan, I hate the modern style of baseball. Give me 80's baseball where guys put the ball in play and ran all over the bases. That's fun to watch. Ultimately, I feel like the cubs are trying to get to where the Royals were a few seasons ago in terms of style. If you look at the way they have drafted it's been good contact, good walk rate guys with speed. Essentially, I think they are trying to find guys that are what Heyward was in his best years or what Zobrist currently does.

What will be interesting is to see what happens with guys like Schwarber and happ who seem to fit more the old style rather than where they are going though as I've said before, I don't believe Schwarber's prime is a guy who strikes out over 25%. He was a 20% type in the minors. I think he was just too good to keep in the minors because no one challenged him and he has enough flaws still in his swing that he is sort of exposed in the majors. But the only way to get better is to be up and play.

 

[Diehardfan]

You know, swinging at balls and looking at strikes explains a lot on why they're not hitting. They're pretty much getting themselves out.

 

[jooo83]

Awful inning from the cubs hitters.