Caleb Williams Projections

[IBleedBearsBlood]

Any one would be stupid to not want Patrick Mahomes after knowing what he’s accomplished. Would it have been the same for him if we had drafted him, no. Everything changes if you change one thing. He could have been better, played similar to how he plays now, or been worse.

One thing I know for sure, as much as I like what Mahomes has done and what he’s turned into, I’d rather had it play out like it did than have taken a Mahomes back in 2017. In my opinion, we did not have the correct front office, correct coaches, correct supporting players for him, and just not having the new mentality, culture, and vibe that we have now. I don’t think it would have been in our favor to have had great years with Mahomes. So I think this set up nicely with Caleb Williams, the supporting players, and the right front office. I will say I’m way happier we have Waldron and his crew since he has play calling experience and has done it before. But we haven’t seen what he can do with us yet. But at least that to me, would be the only question mark here. But I do believe he can make us have a top 15 offense “at least”. I believe in him.

So I’m very happy where we are right now. And although we don’t know how the draftees will pan out, no matter how good they were in college or how high they were drafted, I’m excited to say that the Bears culture has been changed. I’m excited to say that I believe we have competent people in the front office. Flus does have to work on a few things but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Myk]

He has a spectacular situation he is walking in to.

4k may be "historic" now, but 17 games and the changes in rules will make 5k the dividing line between good and great.

6 of the 9 qbs who played 17 games hit 4k plus.

3 of the 5 who started 16 games hit 4k plus.

Sam friggin Howell almost hit it. Geno Smith almost hit it despite missing 2+ games.


I know you are stuck in the stone age passing wise being a bears fan, but 235 a game, especially with the weapons in Chicago is cake.

If Williams plays all 17, he will hit over 4k.

I don't disagree with the hopes because of the offense as a whole but if he hits rookie record yards and TDs odds are he'll be a great one by most standards.

I mean I say Luck wasn't great because of injury and then quitting early. But most people say he's great in spite of the short time he was around.
Short of Williams being a flash in the pan because of the offense or injury I don't think those numbers would be a fluke and then he moves down to being mediocre.

Even if he has a Peyton Manning rookie year I think he has high odds of being top 5 between his history and the offense Poles has been willing to build.
I'm also skeptical that the Bears allow a rookie QB to smash records. Besides the long Bears history of rookie QBs we've seen everyone but Waldron not caring about QB rushing records. Hopefully it's different now, the willingness to support the rookie QB sure is different.

 

[Quik_7_Devin]

4500 yds w/36 TD 12 INT , 350 rush yd w/4 TD

 

[MadOne 77]

61%
3600 yds
25 td
4 rush.
6 fumbles
8ints

 

[mcbear34]

Mods- all Caleb stuff man in a post

 

[BradyJay]

So one offensive lineman from USC was drafted in rd 6 and both starting receivers in rd 7.... but all anyone wants to talk about are fingernails??? How is this not mentioned?

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

So one offensive lineman from USC was drafted in rd 6 and both starting receivers in rd 7.... but all anyone wants to talk about are fingernails??? How is this not mentioned?

I mentioned it draft night.

 

[IBleedBearsBlood]

So one offensive lineman from USC was drafted in rd 6 and both starting receivers in rd 7.... but all anyone wants to talk about are fingernails??? How is this not mentioned?

That’s actually a big thing. But then everyone does know he created time due to the line being weak. But with a line, he can pick them apart. At least that’s what we are all hoping.

 

[IBleedBearsBlood]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785023125786333629

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785021347623514273

 

[Myk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785023125786333629

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785021347623514273

They cut out the part where Singletary mooned them. That was the real inspirational part that gets players motivated.

 

[bears51/40]

Lower the rushing yards to about 50-75. I don’t want him running unless it’s sideline to sideline looking to throw to our elite weapons.

I think he hits 4K passing.

Only place I ever want to see Williams run is inside the 10 where his rushing TD numbers are insane.

 

[bears51/40]

That TD count wont happen if he's healthy and plays all 17.

There are just too many weapons for him not to stack up TD's. Bears also dont have a power back

I do think the Bears are building a team that reflects today's football..............pass to get the lead and run to maintain it.

 

[dentfan]

Only place I ever want to see Williams run is inside the 10 where his rushing TD numbers are insane.

Only if it is a walk in TD. They drop back everyone, and watch him just stroll on in for a TD. That's it. Otherwise, hand the ball off. A perfect season from him would have LESS than a hundred yards rushing and almost 5k passing. Yeah, I said it, 5 MF K!

 

[nc0gnet0]

CJ Stroud 2023 Stats

CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	LNG	RTG
319	499	63.9	4,108	8.2	23	5	75	100.8

Anything less than this is a failure.
CW has more weapons, a better O-line, and a better D.
Bears also could have selected CJ Stroud in 2023.

 

[Myk]

Only place I ever want to see Williams run is inside the 10 where his rushing TD numbers are insane.

Isn't that a high injury risk for the same reason why red zone offense is harder? Everyone is packed into a smaller area?

 

[DanielCCSBears]

Here's my projection, Caleb Williams will have the best season of any Chicago Bears QB ever this year. He'll have more yards touchdowns and better overall efficiency and effectiveness than anyone to play QB in Chicago. When that happens everyone will realize what a good QB is. From there we'll find out if he'll be one of the greatest.

Admittedly breaking Erik Kramer's single season passing records is a low bar to clear, but that's what the rookie year is all about. Time to go all in on this.

 

[Canth]

I don't remember if anyone posted this elsewhere, but I just looked up the rookie records for the Bears for passing:



Caleb Williams should own 4 of those records by the end of the year and hopefully lets that INT one stay with Bratkowski.

The single season Bears records for the same categories is:



If he plays all 17 games, Williams has a shot at some of these too. I think we all hope he gets the yardage one. Well, technically, I would love for him to get the TD record as well for a single season as a Bear but I think that's high for a rookie even with 17 games.

 

[BNB]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

If Caleb is what he is being hyped up to be, or anywhere close to it, he'll definitely have more than 16 passing TDs. Guys like Baker had 27 with a lot less help on offense.

I'd guess around 25

 

[ViggyStargdust]

I don't remember if anyone posted this elsewhere, but I just looked up the rookie records for the Bears for passing:

View attachment 38372

Caleb Williams should own 4 of those records by the end of the year and hopefully lets that INT one stay with Bratkowski.

The single season Bears records for the same categories is:

View attachment 38373

If he plays all 17 games, Williams has a shot at some of these too. I think we all hope he gets the yardage one. Well, technically, I would love for him to get the TD record as well for a single season as a Bear but I think that's high for a rookie even with 17 games.

Every single one of these records - both rookie and single season (aside from INTs, hopefully) - should be within reach for Williams. Touchdowns would for sure be the hardest.

I think he’ll do well right out the gate, and by the end of the year he’ll have had the best season a Bears QB has ever had. The bar is so low, and especially with a 17 game season, if he stays healthy I think it shouldn’t be a problem.

4,295 yards
30 TDs
15 INTs
63%
595 attempts
375 completions
91.7 rating

The rookie season per game averages (or even actual season outcome for some) of Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow all would have set the Bears single season record for yards. And all of those guys were on teams that won 2, 2, 2, 0, 3, and 2 games the season before. Even Trevor Lawrence nearly threw for 4,000 on that dumpster fire 2021 Jags team.

The OL should be average-ish. But the skill positions are arguably the best they’ve ever been, and certainly the best since 2013-14.

 

[bears51/40]

Isn't that a high injury risk for the same reason why red zone offense is harder? Everyone is packed into a smaller area?

In a short area Williams has a running backs ability to make that first guy miss. Also, he is very hard to stop on the QB sneak.