Cashner vs. Rizzo

[beckdawg]

Beckdawg- I don't post much so forgive me if you've said this before. But what are your opinions on Samardzija? Essentially, out side of injuries they're the same guy. I tend to think that you should replicate your opinion there.

I agree with Silences here. It's a tossup between Cashner and Rizzo still as far as who'll be the more valuable major league player. I'd give Rizzo the edge as far as MLB production thus far but I agree that the Cubs are fairly strong a 1st and you can never have enough pitching.

Many of you are missing the point of the thread and wearing your Cubbie blue glasses rather than thinking for yourselves.

I think we need to talk about two things when we're discussing players. What they are and what they can be. In the case of Shark, he's probably pitching like a #3 on a good team this year in my personal opinion. As with Cashner, his potential is higher than that but potential doesn't mean a great deal until it turns into actual performance. If we're going to contrast Shark and Cashner I would say there's a couple of difference.

First, Shark has proven to be more dependable in terms of health. Both are power pitchers but Shark's K/9 sits around 9 vs the 6.3 of Cashner this year. Typically speaking, if you're a power pitcher and a good one you're going to be in that 9+ range. Case in point, of the top 10 WAR pitchers in the league, the lowest k/9 is 8.15. Of the top 30, only Colon, Kuroda, Fister and Chacin have a k/9 under 7. Shark's ERA is higher but his xFIP is 3.49. Cashner's is 3.77. Cashner has put up higher k/9 in previous years on much fewer innings. So, it's possible he could improve. But, in his first year where he's thrown a lot of innings it is a lot lower which is a concern. Additionally, there is a clear advantage to pitching roughly half your games in petco vs Wrigley. Shark is a bit older which should help him out and give him an advantage over Cashner.

That being said, I'm really not as high on Shark as a lot of cubs fans are. If we're talking front of the rotation guys, to me that means a guy who has a legit chance to contend for a Cy Young. For example, a good team might have 2 of these guys be it Verlander and Scherzer or Darvish and Holland...etc. I think Shark will always be in the tier below those guys. At this point, I think Cashner deserves to be in the tier below Shark not only because of the stat reasons I've stated but also because he is an injury risk. At this point we don't know if this is Cashner's peak or if it will be an average season for him. I think it's difficult to equate them as the same pitcher because Shark has proven to be able to throw 175+ innings. That in of itself has value.

As for value, if you feel that way that's fine. I think Rizzo provided more value than you because the cubs found pitching. Maholm, Wood, and Feldman all put up as good if not better numbers than Cashner. Had they kept Cashner what would have they done at 1B the last two years? Fielder was a premier name but there's obviously money concerns there. They could have signed LaRoche or Swisher but they aren't really any better than Rizzo has been and they would have been more expensive than the pitchers the cubs used to replace Cashner.

Also, as for having 1B depth, you couldn't know that when the new FO took over. Vogelbach wasn't a top 100 prospect at the time and Bryant wasn't even on the team. And honestly, we don't know that either of those two players will turn out to be as good as Rizzo let alone better. As I said, until they are ready for the majors there's really no point in worrying about it. If that day comes and they are better than Rizzo you have the choice to move them to a different position or to trade them.

So, if you think Cashner is/will be the better player that's fine. To me, until Cashner puts up 2+ seasons of 175+ innings with at least these numbers, preferably better, it's not even worth debating. My opinion is that this year is arguably Rizzo's absolute floor and there's reason to believe that this year is near Cashner's peak.

 

[SilenceS]

Personally, I don't see any way that Cashner would be the same pitcher at Wrigley as he is at PETCO. This is his second season pitching in that ballpark and didn't break into the rotation this year until injuries struck in San Diego. And at 27, time is running out in his "development". He may work for the Padres. Good for them. I just don't think he would have been the same here...

Conversely, Rizzo is already among the NL leaders in both walks and doubles and has a ridiculously low BABIP. It's way too soon to write him off right now because of a low average. If you can't see that Rizzo has a higher ceiling than Cashner than frankly you're probably just trying your best to be a debbie downer.

Whats worth more in this league? Pitching or Hitting. Also, look at the FA market and see how many "premiere" pitchers are going to be out there. Im not being a Debbie downer. I am saying what I believed this team needs more in the long run. So, take your Cubs goggles off because you have been known for that and read an article.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130523&content_id=48396508&c_id=mlb

I also clearly stated at the beginning of this thread that is the Cubs knew what they know now with their system would you still have traded Cashner. It was a hypothetical thread that got turned into something else.

 

[SilenceS]

LEt me say this one more time to be clear. I do not mind anyone saying they would rather have Rizzo. I had a problem with some of the things said that I did not agree with. I still think its still TBD by at this present time. I would lean towards wanting Cashner because of our present day situation.

 

[Cubs2008]

I find it funny that everyone is quick to say "what would Cashner's numbers be at Wrigley" and no one says "what would Rizzo's numbers be at PETCO".

Beckdawg- You gave a solid response. I agree with it for the most part. I just think that even SilenceS isn't necessarily saying Cashner will be better. The point is more that a mediocre starting pitcher with + potential is harder to come by than a mediocre first baseman with + potential. It seems like Theo kind of blew his wad to get his man.

 

[Flacco4Prez]

I don't see the debate here TBH. Cashner is a mid to end of the rotation guy. Cubs already have 5 pitchers like that. We need top of the rotation guys, not Cashner

 

[Cubs2008]

I don't see the debate here TBH. Cashner is a mid to end of the rotation guy. Cubs already have 5 pitchers like that. We need top of the rotation guys, not Cashner

You clearly don't get the point then guy with three favorite baseball teams. It's probably better that you just move on.

 

[Flacco4Prez]

You clearly don't get the point then guy with three favorite baseball teams. It's probably better that you just move on.

I can put whatever teams I please lol. I probably know more about each Chicago team than you do. I'm on a Cubs forum for a reason. Your observation skills match your GM skills. Those teams were placed to troll KB, but I forgot it takes an actuary to figure that one out. Let me here more of your genius ideas on how the key to a playoff season is having end of the rotation guys as your ace. After that let me know how many AL/NL champions had a rotation filled up of a bunch of middle tier guys. Although on that one I could probably save you time by saying there are none.

 

[beckdawg]

I find it funny that everyone is quick to say "what would Cashner's numbers be at Wrigley" and no one says "what would Rizzo's numbers be at PETCO".

Beckdawg- You gave a solid response. I agree with it for the most part. I just think that even SilenceS isn't necessarily saying Cashner will be better. The point is more that a mediocre starting pitcher with + potential is harder to come by than a mediocre first baseman with + potential. It seems like Theo kind of blew his wad to get his man.

And that's fine. But, my point is who's more likely to reach their potential? Cashner is both older and more of an injury risk. It's a lot harder to project him significantly improving over what he is at this age. On the contrary, as I showed earlier, probably 10 of the top 15 power hitters in the league right now were significantly worse in their 23-24 years than they were after 25. Maybe Cashner turns into Chris Carpenter who was largely an injury risk in Toronto and suddenly got healthy at 28 with the Cards. But he's more of an exception than a common occurrence. I think it's a fairly common occurrence for hitters sub 25 to struggle.

As for, Rizzo in petco, I can see what you're saying but my point was more a comparison of what the players are now rather than what they would be on their respective teams. If you want to argue Wrigley is inflating Rizzo's stats, I think that's fair. According to park factors, Wrigley is the #2 hitter's park and petco is #29. But, if you look at splits for Rizzo, he's got 13 HR 37 RBIs and .247 average at home vs 9 HR 38 RBIs and .212 avg on the road. So, he's not got a huge difference in splits. Cashner's 4.41 era in 87.2 IP vs 2.14 era in 71.1 IP is a pretty dramatic difference. And we've seen other pitchers go from petco to other parks and struggle. Heath Bell went from being one of the best RP in the game to a guy with a 4.5+ ERA in two seasons away. Peavy had a sub 3 era most of his time in petco as well as being a Cy Young candidate most years. Outside of petco his best era was 3.37 with a bunch of 4+ era seasons.

As for pitching being harder to get, I'll agree with you to an extent. If we're talking #1 or #2 pitcher then yes I absolutely agree. But 3-5 pitchers? I mean the cubs have pulled out Wood, Feldman and Maholm fairly easily. And there in lies the crux of the issue. Is Cashner a #1 or #2 pitcher? I just don't see it. And honestly, at the time a lot of people wondered if he wouldn't be forced to the bullpen. So, clearly I'm not the only one with concerns.

Additionally, if we're really worried about pitching, I could bring up the fact that Arrieta has "front-of-the-rotation" potential according to scouting reports. Vizcaino also has that potential if he's healthy. So, the cubs have lottery ticket arms.

 

[dabynsky]

Whats worth more in this league? Pitching or Hitting. Also, look at the FA market and see how many "premiere" pitchers are going to be out there. Im not being a Debbie downer. I am saying what I believed this team needs more in the long run. So, take your Cubs goggles off because you have been known for that and read an article.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130523&content_id=48396508&c_id=mlb

I also clearly stated at the beginning of this thread that is the Cubs knew what they know now with their system would you still have traded Cashner. It was a hypothetical thread that got turned into something else.

There aren't going to be premiere anything in the free agent market. Robinson Cano would probably be the best hitter to hit the open market since what Mark Texiera? Teams are willing to lock up hitters to team friendly deals that take them through their peak years because the risk of injury is so much lower than pitchers. Neither pitching nor hitting is really going to be available.

On the other hand pitching has been available in the trade market, even in these seller's markets the past two years. Guys like Garza and Greinke have been traded in the past two years and both hit the open market, assumption with Garza admittedly. Whereas, the best hitter that has been moved in the same time frame was what Adrian Gonzalez? Teams are willing to hold onto hitters more it seems right now again due to the risk of injury.

 

[SilenceS]

There aren't going to be premiere anything in the free agent market. Robinson Cano would probably be the best hitter to hit the open market since what Mark Texiera? Teams are willing to lock up hitters to team friendly deals that take them through their peak years because the risk of injury is so much lower than pitchers. Neither pitching nor hitting is really going to be available.

On the other hand pitching has been available in the trade market, even in these seller's markets the past two years. Guys like Garza and Greinke have been traded in the past two years and both hit the open market, assumption with Garza admittedly. Whereas, the best hitter that has been moved in the same time frame was what Adrian Gonzalez? Teams are willing to hold onto hitters more it seems right now again due to the risk of injury.

Those teams couldn't pay them. You are also not comparing the same scenario. The Cubs have tons of hitting in their minors. They don't have pitching. Who are they going to trade for? David Price and give up a huge haul plus a 200 million dollar price tag? The Cubs would never be able to compete in the playoffs with the pitching they have now. This is my point.

Now, let get back to Cashner. Here is his splits in depth. There is a lot of misleading information going on.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cashnan01&year=&t=p

17 out of 24 of Cashner starts have been QS. He has been tremendous since the all star break. He has really only had one bad month.

http://www.friarhood.com/players-of-the-month-august-2/

Pitcher of the month:

RHP – Andrew Cashner

August totals: 1-3, 2.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.9: 1 K/BB

The big right hander has been the pitching star of an otherwise painful pitching season. He has been the pitcher of the month now 3 times. Still, despite his impressive individual numbers, he deserves better. Consider Cashner is 24th in the National League in ERA, 23rd in opponent average, and 26th in WHIP, but he is only tied for 33rd in wins. That includes the painful loss to the Dodgers on the last day of the month. It is not beyond the realm of imagination to believe Cashner is on his way to becoming the ace of this staff and possibly a potential Cy Young candidate at some point. Buddy Black told the group of writers on bloggers night that despite the stellar 2013, Cashner has even more he can improve and accomplish. Padre fans should make a point to see him pitch if the can this season as the team won’t want to stretch him too far. He may only have 2-3 starts left.

 

[dabynsky]

Those teams couldn't pay them. You are also not comparing the same scenario. The Cubs have tons of hitting in their minors. They don't have pitching. Who are they going to trade for? David Price and give up a huge haul plus a 200 million dollar price tag? The Cubs would never be able to compete in the playoffs with the pitching they have now. This is my point.

Now, let get back to Cashner. Here is his splits in depth. There is a lot of misleading information going on.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cashnan01&year=&t=p

17 out of 24 of Cashner starts have been QS. He has been tremendous since the all star break. He has really only had one bad month.

http://www.friarhood.com/players-of-the-month-august-2/

Pitcher of the month:

RHP – Andrew Cashner

August totals: 1-3, 2.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.9: 1 K/BB

The big right hander has been the pitching star of an otherwise painful pitching season. He has been the pitcher of the month now 3 times. Still, despite his impressive individual numbers, he deserves better. Consider Cashner is 24th in the National League in ERA, 23rd in opponent average, and 26th in WHIP, but he is only tied for 33rd in wins. That includes the painful loss to the Dodgers on the last day of the month. It is not beyond the realm of imagination to believe Cashner is on his way to becoming the ace of this staff and possibly a potential Cy Young candidate at some point. Buddy Black told the group of writers on bloggers night that despite the stellar 2013, Cashner has even more he can improve and accomplish. Padre fans should make a point to see him pitch if the can this season as the team won’t want to stretch him too far. He may only have 2-3 starts left.

My question then would be where are the premiere in their prime bats going to come from then? The Cubs lacked either of those things at the start of this exercise and to quote those recently departed from us you need both. And you already cited one premiere pitcher that is likely to be available in the offseason or next year. There are probably going to be others as history has shown which was the point you are raising.

Now do I think it is wise to trade massive trade chips for a pitcher with declining velocity and sign him to a mega deal. I think that is a pretty tough position, but the point is where are the pieces going to be available. If I had to bet now for next offseason and deadline there are going to be better arms available than bats as there has been the past two deadlines. If Cano hits the free agent market than there will be a better bat for the first time in several offseasons but if Cano is locked up than it is just a general bag of suck available in free agency.

Another option to obtain top of the rotation pitcher is Tanaka. A lot of teams will be in on him, but the Cubs are supposedly heavily interested as well given several reports, most recently former Cubs Den blogger Tom Loxas.

 

[SilenceS]

My question then would be where are the premiere in their prime bats going to come from then? The Cubs lacked either of those things at the start of this exercise and to quote those recently departed from us you need both. And you already cited one premiere pitcher that is likely to be available in the offseason or next year. There are probably going to be others as history has shown which was the point you are raising.

Now do I think it is wise to trade massive trade chips for a pitcher with declining velocity and sign him to a mega deal. I think that is a pretty tough position, but the point is where are the pieces going to be available. If I had to bet now for next offseason and deadline there are going to be better arms available than bats as there has been the past two deadlines. If Cano hits the free agent market than there will be a better bat for the first time in several offseasons but if Cano is locked up than it is just a general bag of suck available in free agency.

If the Dodgers get Cano, the whole league is in trouble. See, where we are differing is because I don't believe Rizzo to be a premiere bat. He has been a below average bat this year. I don't see near the ceiling people see. I think Bryant at his worst is a much better hitter then Rizzo. Yes, yes it is not in the majors but he will be up next year. I also truly believe Volgy bat to be the real deal. He is such a complete hitter. A more complete hitter then Rizzo. This is based off holes in swing. Rizzo can not hit a hard fastball. He cant. His mechanics wont allow it. He doesn't have super bat speed. he is very strong so when he gets into one it goes. I think Rizzo needs to completely overhaul his swing to be a complete hitter. He has a great eye, but such weak contact for a power hitter.

I truly believe having Shark, Cashner, Wood, Jackson, then going after a pitcher in trade would look a whole lot better to this team then Rizzo. I also believe when Baez and Bryant come up. He may not be in that 3 hole for long. I see both sides. Just giving my side. I will say that first base is weak in the minors across the league so Rizzo could become a decent trade chip, but his value has to come up.

Oh one last thing about Rizzo that struck a nerve was earlier this season when he got put in the 2 hole. His comments left a lot to be desired. I felt like he thought of himself with a sense of entitlement. I hope he doesn't believe that because he has a lot of work to do.

 

[chibears55]

We got two good years out of Garza and got back two to three top 100 to 150 players.

dont matter what type of performance you got out of garza, the trade was useless because they were not a very good team..
they gave up multiple players at the time to get one starter who couldve won 20 games for them and it wouldnt of been enough..
my point is you dont trade minor league assets for one player like garza until your ready to compete.

the point of the question like yours with cashner and rizzo was, was it a good trade at the time it was made, so what they eventually got back in return 3 yrs later isnt the point.. they could eventually get a very good return for rizzo if they decide to trade him in 3 yrs.

Oh and nothing was done because the budget got shut down in '09. Its why we traded Derosa and its why Garza was traded for.

which is another reason why you dont make that trade..
if budget got shut down you dont trade multiple minor league players for one guy that not going to put your team over the top.. yes a couple of those guys were scrap but the point is getting garza didnt make a crappy team any better, in fact they got worse..

the cubs over payed for garza, in fact they gave up more for garza then the brewers did for greinke...

Cashner ceiling is still considered higher than Archers.

based on what ? cashner will be 27 in 2014 and archer 25
Archer 145 IP 3.34 ERA 1.12 WHIP 2.9 BB/9 7.4 K/9
Cashner 270 IP 3.76 ERA 1.28 WHIP 3.3 BB/9 7.5 K/9

We have two guys in the minors that could be major league first baseman.

you could say that now, but you couldnt after the 2011 season.. they had nothing but bryan LaHair for 1B

We don't have much pitching and they are really far away

keeping one player ( cashner ) wasnt going to make any difference of where were at with the pitching now

Im not saying this was a great trade or not, for me i could care less because they got what they needed at the time, a young (22) talented 1Bmen and gave up a 25 YO pitcher with potential .. i dont buy the argument of them needing that 1 pitcher more then the 1Bmen at that time.. i would argue that they should of held onto the 6 players they gave up for garza at the time.

Rizzo won last year. Cashner is winning this year. That's why I said its TBD and I see both sides.

which brings up the point that trying to debate whether the trade was good or not or necessary is pointless...
cubs needed a 1Bmen and traded away a pitcher, padres had 2 1Bmen and traded one away for a pitcher..
it was a good trade for both teams at the time, what their future holds for them is unknown but both teams recieved a talented player with potential and high ceilings and thats all you can ask for in this trade...

 

[dabynsky]

If the Dodgers get Cano, the whole league is in trouble. See, where we are differing is because I don't believe Rizzo to be a premiere bat. He has been a below average bat this year. I don't see near the ceiling people see. I think Bryant at his worst is a much better hitter then Rizzo. Yes, yes it is not in the majors but he will be up next year. I also truly believe Volgy bat to be the real deal. He is such a complete hitter. A more complete hitter then Rizzo. This is based off holes in swing. Rizzo can not hit a hard fastball. He cant. His mechanics wont allow it. He doesn't have super bat speed. he is very strong so when he gets into one it goes. I think Rizzo needs to completely overhaul his swing to be a complete hitter. He has a great eye, but such weak contact for a power hitter.

I truly believe having Shark, Cashner, Wood, Jackson, then going after a pitcher in trade would look a whole lot better to this team then Rizzo. I also believe when Baez and Bryant come up. He may not be in that 3 hole for long. I see both sides. Just giving my side. I will say that first base is weak in the minors across the league so Rizzo could become a decent trade chip, but his value has to come up.

Oh one last thing about Rizzo that struck a nerve was earlier this season when he got put in the 2 hole. His comments left a lot to be desired. I felt like he thought of himself with a sense of entitlement. I hope he doesn't believe that because he has a lot of work to do.

The whole league is in trouble as long as the Dodgers are willing to spend whatever. I think they hit a limit at some point and depending on that limit that team could turn into early 2002-04 Mets or they could turn into the Yankees. It will depend like I said on the aging of the team combined with when they hit that limit.

Now the debate we are engaged in is really a separate issue from Cashner and Rizzo. It is about the availablity of arms and bats. I think that it has been overstated how hard hard it is to build a playoff rotation. The fact is that no one trades true middle of the order hitters in their primes and no one trades aces, especially those under 30. I think if you objectively analyze the past two offseasons and deadlines more impact arms were traded than impact hitters. And that free agency has generally sucked period.

Now the issue of Rizzo vs. Cashner I have been purposely staying away from, but here is my take on it. Neither of those guys are difference makers. Rizzo isn't going to be hitting 3rd or 4th in a playoff lineup and Cashner at best better be taking the ball third in a playoff rotation. Rizzo is better than what he has shown this year. There are a lot of indicators that put his line with what I expected from him which is low 800 OPS player. A guy that hits 270/350/450 is what I expected to be honest. The guy that Capt. Serious thinks is such an insult, Adam LaRoche, is the guy that ultimately I saw.

However, Cashner is not the top of the rotation guy that you are pushing him to be either. He has absolutely awesome stuff, but there is an issue with it. It isn't being converted into strikeouts for some reason. If he was a top of the rotation arm his K rate should like more Shark like than Travis Wood like. I don't have a good answer for it. Perhaps his delivery allows for hitters to pick up the ball more easily than other guys. Perhaps the fastball is flat too often. I don't know but his production is in line with a 3 right now, and there is little evidence to suggest that he is going to magically tap into that aresenal to take that next step. If he does, then clear win for the Padres. If he doesn't at worst this deal is a draw for me, and if his arm blows up or he is forced into the pen clear win for the Cubs.

I hate debating or talking about guys attitudes. Production is production and that is what I care about at the end of the day. I wish Rizzo would have used the lines that Carlos Villanueva used about being switched back and forth about doing what is best for the team, etc. But at the end of the day if he is above that 800 OPS threshold next year I really don't care what he says.

 

[SilenceS]

dont matter what type of performance you got out of garza, the trade was useless because they were not a very good team..
they gave up multiple players at the time to get one starter who couldve won 20 games for them and it wouldnt of been enough..
my point is you dont trade minor league assets for one player like garza until your ready to compete.

the point of the question like yours with cashner and rizzo was, was it a good trade at the time it was made, so what they eventually got back in return 3 yrs later isnt the point.. they could eventually get a very good return for rizzo if they decide to trade him in 3 yrs.



which is another reason why you dont make that trade..
if budget got shut down you dont trade multiple minor league players for one guy that not going to put your team over the top.. yes a couple of those guys were scrap but the point is getting garza didnt make a crappy team any better, in fact they got worse..

the cubs over payed for garza, in fact they gave up more for garza then the brewers did for greinke...



based on what ? cashner will be 27 in 2014 and archer 25
Archer 145 IP 3.34 ERA 1.12 WHIP 2.9 BB/9 7.4 K/9
Cashner 270 IP 3.76 ERA 1.28 WHIP 3.3 BB/9 7.5 K/9




you could say that now, but you couldnt after the 2011 season.. they had nothing but bryan LaHair for 1B



keeping one player ( cashner ) wasnt going to make any difference of where were at with the pitching now

Im not saying this was a great trade or not, for me i could care less because they got what they needed at the time, a young (22) talented 1Bmen and gave up a 25 YO pitcher with potential .. i dont buy the argument of them needing that 1 pitcher more then the 1Bmen at that time.. i would argue that they should of held onto the 6 players they gave up for garza at the time.




which brings up the point that trying to debate whether the trade was good or not or necessary is pointless...
cubs needed a 1Bmen and traded away a pitcher, padres had 2 1Bmen and traded one away for a pitcher..
it was a good trade for both teams at the time, what their future holds for them is unknown but both teams recieved a talented player with potential and high ceilings and thats all you can ask for in this trade...

A couple of things, you missed the whole entire point of this thread. Two. The Cubs got more back then they gave for Garza plus two really good years of pitching. Unless Hak Ju Lee becomes a star. The Cubs won the trade. You are missing the whole if you know what you know now would you make the trade. I said nothing of at the time.

 

[SilenceS]

The whole league is in trouble as long as the Dodgers are willing to spend whatever. I think they hit a limit at some point and depending on that limit that team could turn into early 2002-04 Mets or they could turn into the Yankees. It will depend like I said on the aging of the team combined with when they hit that limit.

Now the debate we are engaged in is really a separate issue from Cashner and Rizzo. It is about the availablity of arms and bats. I think that it has been overstated how hard hard it is to build a playoff rotation. The fact is that no one trades true middle of the order hitters in their primes and no one trades aces, especially those under 30. I think if you objectively analyze the past two offseasons and deadlines more impact arms were traded than impact hitters. And that free agency has generally sucked period.

Now the issue of Rizzo vs. Cashner I have been purposely staying away from, but here is my take on it. Neither of those guys are difference makers. Rizzo isn't going to be hitting 3rd or 4th in a playoff lineup and Cashner at best better be taking the ball third in a playoff rotation. Rizzo is better than what he has shown this year. There are a lot of indicators that put his line with what I expected from him which is low 800 OPS player. A guy that hits 270/350/450 is what I expected to be honest. The guy that Capt. Serious thinks is such an insult, Adam LaRoche, is the guy that ultimately I saw.

However, Cashner is not the top of the rotation guy that you are pushing him to be either. He has absolutely awesome stuff, but there is an issue with it. It isn't being converted into strikeouts for some reason. If he was a top of the rotation arm his K rate should like more Shark like than Travis Wood like. I don't have a good answer for it. Perhaps his delivery allows for hitters to pick up the ball more easily than other guys. Perhaps the fastball is flat too often. I don't know but his production is in line with a 3 right now, and there is little evidence to suggest that he is going to magically tap into that aresenal to take that next step. If he does, then clear win for the Padres. If he doesn't at worst this deal is a draw for me, and if his arm blows up or he is forced into the pen clear win for the Cubs.

I hate debating or talking about guys attitudes. Production is production and that is what I care about at the end of the day. I wish Rizzo would have used the lines that Carlos Villanueva used about being switched back and forth about doing what is best for the team, etc. But at the end of the day if he is above that 800 OPS threshold next year I really don't care what he says.

I posted an article on Bud Black saying why his K's have dropped and its because they are over hauling his slider. Black states that he believe his K rate will shoot back up once they get that down. He has a huge ceiling. I agree I have no idea if he will ever tap into it completely, but the front of rotation stuff is there and this year he has started to put it all together. I am fine with both arguments. I just found Cashner being a 4th or 5th at best to be wrong. I agree with a lot of what you said.

 

[dabynsky]

I posted an article on Bud Black saying why his K's have dropped and its because they are over hauling his slider. Black states that he believe his K rate will shoot back up once they get that down. He has a huge ceiling. I agree I have no idea if he will ever tap into it completely, but the front of rotation stuff is there and this year he has started to put it all together. I am fine with both arguments. I just found Cashner being a 4th or 5th at best to be wrong. I agree with a lot of what you said.

Right but until he does it he is a middle of the rotation starter with huge injury questions. Maybe he unlocks the potential and his k rate approaches the numbers he had as a reliever. I am just not convinced, and as I believe you have talked about the Cubs have a huge need for left handed bats long term with all of the big four being right handed. I just like the safer bet that Rizzo is at staying healthy and productive for the next five years over Cashner, but I fully concede that Cashner could outshine Rizzo in that time frame.

 

[chibears55]

A couple of things, you missed the whole entire point of this thread. Two. The Cubs got more back then they gave for Garza plus two really good years of pitching. Unless Hak Ju Lee becomes a star. The Cubs won the trade. You are missing the whole if you know what you know now would you make the trade. I said nothing of at the time.

ok and what i know now is...
rizzo struggled this year with his AVG. but his potential and ceiling is still high he only 23, cashner 27 had a good season but he didnt exactly light it up, he has a 1.21 WHIP and a 6.5 K/9 that dont really stand out as great..

 

[HurricaneDij39]

I find it funny that everyone is quick to say "what would Cashner's numbers be at Wrigley" and no one says "what would Rizzo's numbers be at PETCO".

Beckdawg- You gave a solid response. I agree with it for the most part. I just think that even SilenceS isn't necessarily saying Cashner will be better. The point is more that a mediocre starting pitcher with + potential is harder to come by than a mediocre first baseman with + potential. It seems like Theo kind of blew his wad to get his man.

Um, maybe that has something to do with us being Cub fans and not Padre fans and not having to concern ourselves with how Rizzo hits at PETCO Park. If Cashner's stuff is so great, why is he just this year breaking into the Padres' rotation at age 27? Why is his strikeout rate so down? Guy screams "PETCO product to me...

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Whats worth more in this league? Pitching or Hitting. Also, look at the FA market and see how many "premiere" pitchers are going to be out there. Im not being a Debbie downer. I am saying what I believed this team needs more in the long run. So, take your Cubs goggles off because you have been known for that and read an article.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130523&content_id=48396508&c_id=mlb

I also clearly stated at the beginning of this thread that is the Cubs knew what they know now with their system would you still have traded Cashner. It was a hypothetical thread that got turned into something else.

To answer your question - Yes, I'd do the trade again. And so would everyone else on this thread so far.