Cashner vs. Rizzo

[beckdawg]

We will see, but anyone who thinks Cashner has not had a really good season if just putting blinders on.

Don't think anyone is saying he's having a bad season.... least I wasn't. But there's a difference between the season Cashner had and what you expect out of a #1 starter. And it's all fine and well that people think he will be a better pitcher next year. But until he actually goes out there and does it there's not really a point in debating it because it's just as possible he either A) regresses as the league catches up to his tendencies or B) he gets hurt. In other words, it's all speculation.

Additionally, he has 3 years left on his arbitration. To me that's as big of an issue as anything else. The cubs have Rizzo til 2020 at a very reasonable price(~$6 mil/year) and then also have 2 option years. At this point, Cashner has 2.3 WAR in his 2 seasons and Rizzo has 3.2 so Rizzo is ahead there. If you figure Rizzo is a 2 WAR player(in line with your LaRoche comparison) over the next 6 years, that means Cashner would have to put up 4 WAR/year the next 3 to be even which roughly makes him one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.

Now I understand I'm comparing 6 years vs 3 for Cashner. But as of today, that's all that is guaranteed on their contracts for both teams. To make matters worse, given his injury history it's hard for the Padres to buy out the rest of his arbitration and add say 2-3 years on top of that at a reasonable rate. They are basically forced to make him repeat this year and if he does turn into the guy you're suggesting he will be they are going to get murdered on that contract.

After those 3 years, if Cashner turns into the player you suggest he will be, then you're talking probably $20+ mil a season after those 3 years. Garza's barely a 3 WAR/season guy and he may end up with $20 mil/year. At that point, I don't think you can even compare Rizzo and Cashner anymore because for the roughly $14 mil difference in price you can bring in one or several other players. That's why it's difficult for me to see Cashner as being the more valuable asset.

So, I don't think the questions is as simple as who will be the better player and even then, I obviously think Rizzo can win that argument.

 

[brett05]

Don't think anyone is saying he's having a bad season.... least I wasn't. But there's a difference between the season Cashner had and what you expect out of a #1 starter. And it's all fine and well that people think he will be a better pitcher next year. But until he actually goes out there and does it there's not really a point in debating it because it's just as possible he either A) regresses as the league catches up to his tendencies or B) he gets hurt. In other words, it's all speculation.

Additionally, he has 3 years left on his arbitration. To me that's as big of an issue as anything else. The cubs have Rizzo til 2020 at a very reasonable price(~$6 mil/year) and then also have 2 option years. At this point, Cashner has 2.3 WAR in his 2 seasons and Rizzo has 3.2 so Rizzo is ahead there. If you figure Rizzo is a 2 WAR player(in line with your LaRoche comparison) over the next 6 years, that means Cashner would have to put up 4 WAR/year the next 3 to be even which roughly makes him one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.

Now I understand I'm comparing 6 years vs 3 for Cashner. But as of today, that's all that is guaranteed on their contracts for both teams. To make matters worse, given his injury history it's hard for the Padres to buy out the rest of his arbitration and add say 2-3 years on top of that at a reasonable rate. They are basically forced to make him repeat this year and if he does turn into the guy you're suggesting he will be they are going to get murdered on that contract.

After those 3 years, if Cashner turns into the player you suggest he will be, then you're talking probably $20+ mil a season after those 3 years. Garza's barely a 3 WAR/season guy and he may end up with $20 mil/year. At that point, I don't think you can even compare Rizzo and Cashner anymore because for the roughly $14 mil difference in price you can bring in one or several other players. That's why it's difficult for me to see Cashner as being the more valuable asset.

So, I don't think the questions is as simple as who will be the better player and even then, I obviously think Rizzo can win that argument.

1) Garza may, but he isn't close to being a $20 million/ yr pitcher.
2) Pitchers are more valuable and harder to replace than first basemen. If you made that point, I apologize that I missed it.

 

[SilenceS]

Don't think anyone is saying he's having a bad season.... least I wasn't. But there's a difference between the season Cashner had and what you expect out of a #1 starter. And it's all fine and well that people think he will be a better pitcher next year. But until he actually goes out there and does it there's not really a point in debating it because it's just as possible he either A) regresses as the league catches up to his tendencies or B) he gets hurt. In other words, it's all speculation.

Additionally, he has 3 years left on his arbitration. To me that's as big of an issue as anything else. The cubs have Rizzo til 2020 at a very reasonable price(~$6 mil/year) and then also have 2 option years. At this point, Cashner has 2.3 WAR in his 2 seasons and Rizzo has 3.2 so Rizzo is ahead there. If you figure Rizzo is a 2 WAR player(in line with your LaRoche comparison) over the next 6 years, that means Cashner would have to put up 4 WAR/year the next 3 to be even which roughly makes him one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.

Now I understand I'm comparing 6 years vs 3 for Cashner. But as of today, that's all that is guaranteed on their contracts for both teams. To make matters worse, given his injury history it's hard for the Padres to buy out the rest of his arbitration and add say 2-3 years on top of that at a reasonable rate. They are basically forced to make him repeat this year and if he does turn into the guy you're suggesting he will be they are going to get murdered on that contract.

After those 3 years, if Cashner turns into the player you suggest he will be, then you're talking probably $20+ mil a season after those 3 years. Garza's barely a 3 WAR/season guy and he may end up with $20 mil/year. At that point, I don't think you can even compare Rizzo and Cashner anymore because for the roughly $14 mil difference in price you can bring in one or several other players. That's why it's difficult for me to see Cashner as being the more valuable asset.

So, I don't think the questions is as simple as who will be the better player and even then, I obviously think Rizzo can win that argument.

Your whole post is speculation as well. You are speculating rizzo will progress. You are speculating that Cashner will regress. You are speculating a contract. You are speculating war numbers. Rizzo had cancer. That's no guarantee its gone forever. You bring up a good point on garza. It shows how much pitching is valued in this league. Pitching is not wry strong in the majors. It isn't like 10 years ago. I said its tbd but I still think in the end. The cubs will miss a pitcher like cashner and rizzo would be an expandable player. It's speculation but no more than what you are doing

 

[CSF77]

There is more going on with the Cubs then losing Cashner for Rizzo. They have picked up some quality arms in Johnson and Edwards over the last year and a half. That is not even getting into if Viz ever makes it back. Talent wise he was up with Cashner alone. It is a good debate in it self because even Theo did not want to give up either Cash or Shark for Rizzo and was willing to plug LaHair out there. But anything could happen and the Cubs have been stockpiling pitching. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in one arm for one bat too much.

 

[beckdawg]

Your whole post is speculation as well. You are speculating rizzo will progress. You are speculating that Cashner will regress. You are speculating a contract. You are speculating war numbers. Rizzo had cancer. That's no guarantee its gone forever. You bring up a good point on garza. It shows how much pitching is valued in this league. Pitching is not wry strong in the majors. It isn't like 10 years ago. I said its tbd but I still think in the end. The cubs will miss a pitcher like cashner and rizzo would be an expandable player. It's speculation but no more than what you are doing

I agree it's all speculation but I was attempting to look at things from your point a view based on comments you'd previously made. That being said, if we're viewing this trade in full retrospect as of today without speculation on performance/contracts, Rizzo currently has accumulated more WAR in the first two seasons. As of today, Rizzo is under contract until 2020 with 2 option years. Cashner has 3 years until he's a FA. In order for the cubs to "lose" this trade, Cashner has to be better in the next 3 years than the next 6 for Rizzo. That's why it's difficult for me to see the cubs losing this trade.

 

[beckdawg]

1) Garza may, but he isn't close to being a $20 million/ yr pitcher.
2) Pitchers are more valuable and harder to replace than first basemen. If you made that point, I apologize that I missed it.

I said Garza may end up getting that. You say he isn't close. He is far more accomplished than Sanchez was last off season. Sanchez got $16 mil a year last off season. So if Garza is a better pitcher what's he get? $18 mil/year? He'll be the top pitcher on the market if he's not re-signed.

As for pitching being more valuable than first base, it's not that clear cut. If Cashner is a 3-5 starter like some have suggested, the cubs have found numerous guys in that range in FA for next to nothing.

 

[SilenceS]

All good to disagree!:woot:

 

[brett05]

I said Garza may end up getting that. You say he isn't close. He is far more accomplished than Sanchez was last off season. Sanchez got $16 mil a year last off season. So if Garza is a better pitcher what's he get? $18 mil/year? He'll be the top pitcher on the market if he's not re-signed.

As for pitching being more valuable than first base, it's not that clear cut. If Cashner is a 3-5 starter like some have suggested, the cubs have found numerous guys in that range in FA for next to nothing.

Garza is a $13-15 million dollar/yr pitcher around 4 years length type pitcher. Could he get more? Sure, as you said, the market is awful for pitchers.

Funny, kind of, that you talk about the rare Pitchers in one sentence and then change ship in the other. Yes the Cubs have found 3-5 guys. Someone has to pitch in those spots. Most of the guys they got were 5/6 guys where they caught lightning and were able to trade them out. Rizzo could just as easily be a bottom first baseman as Cashner could be a #4/5 starter. Pitching by a long, long, long shot destroys value over a first baseman. In His day, Frank Thomas was the greatest right handed hitter ever. Would have traded him for Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Gregg Maddux in a heart beat. And that pains me to say that as I love Frank and really dislike Greg.

 

[beckdawg]

Garza is a $13-15 million dollar/yr pitcher around 4 years length type pitcher. Could he get more? Sure, as you said, the market is awful for pitchers.

Funny, kind of, that you talk about the rare Pitchers in one sentence and then change ship in the other. Yes the Cubs have found 3-5 guys. Someone has to pitch in those spots. Most of the guys they got were 5/6 guys where they caught lightning and were able to trade them out. Rizzo could just as easily be a bottom first baseman as Cashner could be a #4/5 starter. Pitching by a long, long, long shot destroys value over a first baseman. In His day, Frank Thomas was the greatest right handed hitter ever. Would have traded him for Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Gregg Maddux in a heart beat. And that pains me to say that as I love Frank and really dislike Greg.

I guarantee Garza gets more than $13-15. I mean you're saying he's Edwin Jackson level of pitcher and that's without figuring in the yearly rise in prices. As for the pitching argument, those same guys you are saying were 5/6 guys contenders traded for to be starters so clearly you're view on them is inaccurate. I agree that #1 and #2 pitchers are more valuable than first basemen. However, I don't agree #3-5 pitchers are. And I've suggested there's a lot of reason to believe Cashner is a 3-5 pitcher.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

...And opinions can make assholes at times.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Um, maybe it's because you'd rather ignore key information as to whether or not the Cubs got the better en onthe deal. Maybe you're just rooting blindly for any bozo they brin along.

Um, maybe that's because I'm an actual Cubs fan and will support the team regardless of whom they bring in.

And what key information exactly am I ignoring???

I'm listening.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

There is more going on with the Cubs then losing Cashner for Rizzo. They have picked up some quality arms in Johnson and Edwards over the last year and a half. That is not even getting into if Viz ever makes it back. Talent wise he was up with Cashner alone. It is a good debate in it self because even Theo did not want to give up either Cash or Shark for Rizzo and was willing to plug LaHair out there. But anything could happen and the Cubs have been stockpiling pitching. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in one arm for one bat too much.

Truer words couldn't have been said. If our team's production since the Soriano trade was any indication, we need OFFENSE more than we would have needed Cashner.

Cashner's season this year may mean that he's a guy to consider for my fantasy team, but for my real team, the Cubs, it couldn't mean less to me.

 

[Jntg4]

Unless you weren't being condescending, then my apologies.

Just saying in general, not aimed at you. A lot of people love to use small sample sizes to change arguments, not you.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Your whole post is speculation as well. You are speculating rizzo will progress. You are speculating that Cashner will regress. You are speculating a contract. You are speculating war numbers. Rizzo had cancer. That's no guarantee its gone forever. You bring up a good point on garza. It shows how much pitching is valued in this league. Pitching is not wry strong in the majors. It isn't like 10 years ago. I said its tbd but I still think in the end. The cubs will miss a pitcher like cashner and rizzo would be an expandable player. It's speculation but no more than what you are doing

Is it speculation, or a fact that Rizzo is already among the NL leaders in both walks and doubles. Cry and moan about his batting average all you want, but his minor league track record and a low BABIP this year suggests he has potential to be much better. And considering how much we have invested in him, we have no choice but to try and develop him...

 

[SilenceS]

Is it speculation, or a fact that Rizzo is already among the NL leaders in both walks and doubles. Cry and moan about his batting average all you want, but his minor league track record and a low BABIP this year suggests he has potential to be much better. And considering how much we have invested in him, we have no choice but to try and develop him...

:shrug::shrug:

 

[Cubs2008]

Um, maybe that's because I'm an actual Cubs fan and will support the team regardless of whom they bring in.

And what key information exactly am I ignoring???

I'm listening.

Um, I'm a Cubs fan too, and always will be. That doesn't mean that I think that every move they make is golden.

The key information, obviously, to people who aren't slow, is that the ballparks effect both players and not just one. You insinuated that Cashner's numbers were a result of his new ballpark. My point is that if Rizzo was still in his old park, PETCO, his number would be even worse than they are. Thus evaluating them on an even playing field rather than discrediting Cashner and taking Rizzo at face value. Again, for people who aren't slow.

 

[beckdawg]

I want to discuss something else here. What if Vogelbach has more value as a trade piece than either Cashner and Rizzo? He'll probably crack the top 100 prospects at the end of the year. The highest Rizzo ever got was #47 IIRC and even then, the cubs were buying low when they got him as a new FO had just came in and traded Latos for a 1B they liked more. The highest Cashner ever got was #95 and his value was obviously down due to injuries.

Common logic would say if he's more valuable, why would you keep Rizzo over him? Well, a common theme in this topic is pitching being more valuable than hitting. So, its possible Vogelbach brings back a better pitcher than Cashner. Additionally, while Rizzo has struggled with his average, he's got gold glove caliber defense and his ability to walk makes him attractive. If he fixes his average, and there is reason to believe he will, he's a quality player who's locked up for the better part of a decade.

The reds gave up Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Volquez for Latos. Alonso was #33 and Grandal was #53 at the time of the trade. So, what about a combo of Soler, Vogelbach and filler for the next available young stud pitcher? You could play Braynt in RF, Almora in CF, Olt/Baez/Villenuva/other at 3B, Baez/Castro at SS, Alcantra/Baez/Castro at 2B and Rizzo at 1B. Now I don't have a clue who that next young guy is but would it really surprise anyone if it was say Jose Fernandez from the Marlins? They have Morrison at 1B and nothing in their top 15 prospects there and 6 of their top 15 before the season were pitchers(one being Fernandez).

Assuming they are able to make that sort of trade, they also have what will likely be a top 5 pick(currently 4 with 11 games to go). So, they could add two big arms that way and would still have some of their middle of the rotation arms even after the trade. That's another reason I'm not all that worried about what Cashner might be.

 

[brett05]

I guarantee Garza gets more than $13-15.

YOu are confusing value and what he may get in this weak FA class. Two different stories.

I mean you're saying he's Edwin Jackson level of pitcher and that's without figuring in the yearly rise in prices.

No I am not. Whose fault is it that the Cubs overpayed Jackson?!?!?!

As for the pitching argument, those same guys you are saying were 5/6 guys contenders traded for to be starters so clearly you're view on them is inaccurate. I agree that #1 and #2 pitchers are more valuable than first basemen. However, I don't agree #3-5 pitchers are. And I've suggested there's a lot of reason to believe Cashner is a 3-5 pitcher.

Please see "lightning in a bottle" It's right there is Theo's guide "How to hopefully make your own Free Agent"

 

[beckdawg]

YOu are confusing value and what he may get in this weak FA class. Two different stories.



No I am not. Whose fault is it that the Cubs overpayed Jackson?!?!?!




Please see "lightning in a bottle" It's right there is Theo's guide "How to hopefully make your own Free Agent"

I just went back and reread your initial comment. I must have skimmed over the may part. My apologies. I read that as you were saying he had no chance to get that which is where my comment on Jackson came from. I agree that Garza isn't worth $20 mil a year in terms of value but I'd be surprised if he isn't in the $18-20 range in terms of what he actually gets.

As for the pitcher debate, I stand by my statement that 3-5 pitchers aren't that rare. If you want another example, look at the cardinals trotting out guys like Penny, Loshe, and Suppan for years and making them into quality starters. On the other hand #1 and #2 pitchers are much more difficult to find. And often, people will pay #1 prices for #2's. Garza is a good example of that.

 

[beckdawg]

I was reading through my rss feed and came across this. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40445/rizzo-cashner-trade-not-settled-yet

Thought some might find it interesting. Full disclosure, Schoenfield writes stuff in a fangraphs manner using saber stats and such. I thought is breakdown on Rizzo in particular was fairly good.