Cashner vs. Rizzo

HurricaneDij39 · Sep 15, 2013

SilenceS said:
Lol, my flaws? I wouldn't start Hurricane. I have always had my own opinions. I would look into the mirror before throwing stones because your post on CBS were not the greatest.

And you are???

LOL I haven't been a regular on the Cubs board for about a year and a half. From about 2010-2012 I often took my personal frustrations to the internet with me. A girl it turns out I care deeply about had grown up to resent me after I had neglected her during our younger years. When I wasn't accepted by her, I didn't feel accepted anywhere during that time frame. I had a lot of growing up to do and hopefully I'm not done. But, I can honestly tell you I'm not the same poster I was a year and a half ago.

Point is - Stop looking at KB as the gold standard of Cub fan opinions. Until he can prove himself capable of being a civilized poster, he's just another troll. Cub Nation doesn't stop for Mr. Boyd.

beckdawg isn't the one that's bent out of shape from this thread, you are. You asked for our opinion and you got it.

beckdawg · Sep 15, 2013

dabynsky said:
The guy that Capt. Serious thinks is such an insult, Adam LaRoche, is the guy that ultimately I saw.

SilenceS brought this up in another thread. I don't remember which but it's on here some where. Anyways, I averaged up LaRoche's seasons and his average season equates to Rizzo's season this year. There's significant reason to believe this is Rizzo's floor. If you look at most prospects, almost all of them struggle in years 2 or 3. Rizzo's in that range. Additionally, with where Rizzo's BABIP sits even if he hits the ball weak as SilenceS suggests, there's at least 20-30 points to improve. That still would put him in the .270-280 BABIP which would be low for a major leaguer.

In my opinion, when he starts to hit his prime years he's probably a .270 hitter with 30 HRs and 95-100 RBIs as a conservative estimate. He's basically mid 20's now so suggesting that he adds 5 more per year in his prime doesn't seem like a stretch to me. If he does get to those numbers, that's easily all star and borderline super-star. To me, the only way this trade doesn't work out well for the cubs is if Cashner turns into a Cy Young contender yearly. Rizzo's power is clear. Personally, I think he's closer to Jay Bruce than LaRoche. Bruce and him have very similar numbers in their first 2 majors stints in the majors.

CSF77 · Sep 15, 2013

If we are looking at that point and time yes I would pull that trade.

They had LaHair at 1B, no legit 1B prospect until Vogelbach, who was not even close.

They were not going to spend to upgrade 1B. IE they deferred 5 mill off of Pena. They did not retain A-Ram so they were not going to sign a big ticket 1B.

So looking at the situation yes because if you are not going to invest into a core hitter then develop one vs tossing LaHair put there long term or worse.

Pitching now:

They are missing a true ace but Cash is no closer to that than Shark is. Cash is getting the benefit of pitching in the best pitchers park in the league.

His numbers mean little at this point. His away splits are more reasonable info to go by.

He would be producing Jackson production right now and I believe that is a fair assessment.

Rizzo: Sophomore year. I'll wait until year 3 and hopefully he has a legit #4 hitter behind him. (Still want Cruz)

SilenceS · Sep 15, 2013

HurricaneDij39 said:
And you are???

LOL I haven't been a regular on the Cubs board for about a year and a half. From about 2010-2012 I often took my personal frustrations to the internet with me. A girl it turns out I care deeply about had grown up to resent me after I had neglected her during our younger years. When I wasn't accepted by her, I didn't feel accepted anywhere during that time frame. I had a lot of growing up to do and hopefully I'm not done. But, I can honestly tell you I'm not the same poster I was a year and a half ago.

Point is - Stop looking at KB as the gold standard of Cub fan opinions. Until he can prove himself capable of being a civilized poster, he's just another troll. Cub Nation doesn't stop for Mr. Boyd.

beckdawg isn't the one that's bent out of shape from this thread, you are. You asked for our opinion and you got it.

SilenceS · Sep 15, 2013

CSF77 said:
If we are looking at that point and time yes I would pull that trade.

They had LaHair at 1B, no legit 1B prospect until Vogelbach, who was not even close.

They were not going to spend to upgrade 1B. IE they deferred 5 mill off of Pena. They did not retain A-Ram so they were not going to sign a big ticket 1B.

So looking at the situation yes because if you are not going to invest into a core hitter then develop one vs tossing LaHair put there long term or worse.

Pitching now:

They are missing a true ace but Cash is no closer to that than Shark is. Cash is getting the benefit of pitching in the best pitchers park in the league.

His numbers mean little at this point. His away splits are more reasonable info to go by.

He would be producing Jackson production right now and I believe that is a fair assessment.

Rizzo: Sophomore year. I'll wait until year 3 and hopefully he has a legit #4 hitter behind him. (Still want Cruz)

You also didn't read the point of this thread

SilenceS · Sep 15, 2013

beckdawg said:
SilenceS brought this up in another thread. I don't remember which but it's on here some where. Anyways, I averaged up LaRoche's seasons and his average season equates to Rizzo's season this year. There's significant reason to believe this is Rizzo's floor. If you look at most prospects, almost all of them struggle in years 2 or 3. Rizzo's in that range. Additionally, with where Rizzo's BABIP sits even if he hits the ball weak as SilenceS suggests, there's at least 20-30 points to improve. That still would put him in the .270-280 BABIP which would be low for a major leaguer.

In my opinion, when he starts to hit his prime years he's probably a .270 hitter with 30 HRs and 95-100 RBIs as a conservative estimate. He's basically mid 20's now so suggesting that he adds 5 more per year in his prime doesn't seem like a stretch to me. If he does get to those numbers, that's easily all star and borderline super-star. To me, the only way this trade doesn't work out well for the cubs is if Cashner turns into a Cy Young contender yearly. Rizzo's power is clear. Personally, I think he's closer to Jay Bruce than LaRoche. Bruce and him have very similar numbers in their first 2 majors stints in the majors.

I didn't want to comment to you ahain but superstar? And I am the one stretching.

SilenceS · Sep 15, 2013

Dabyskny answer on this thread is spot on. This is the last answer I will respond towards it.

dabynsky · Sep 15, 2013

beckdawg said:
SilenceS brought this up in another thread. I don't remember which but it's on here some where. Anyways, I averaged up LaRoche's seasons and his average season equates to Rizzo's season this year. There's significant reason to believe this is Rizzo's floor. If you look at most prospects, almost all of them struggle in years 2 or 3. Rizzo's in that range. Additionally, with where Rizzo's BABIP sits even if he hits the ball weak as SilenceS suggests, there's at least 20-30 points to improve. That still would put him in the .270-280 BABIP which would be low for a major leaguer.

In my opinion, when he starts to hit his prime years he's probably a .270 hitter with 30 HRs and 95-100 RBIs as a conservative estimate. He's basically mid 20's now so suggesting that he adds 5 more per year in his prime doesn't seem like a stretch to me. If he does get to those numbers, that's easily all star and borderline super-star. To me, the only way this trade doesn't work out well for the cubs is if Cashner turns into a Cy Young contender yearly. Rizzo's power is clear. Personally, I think he's closer to Jay Bruce than LaRoche. Bruce and him have very similar numbers in their first 2 majors stints in the majors.

When I am talking about Adam LaRoche, I am talking about a guy that hits .270/.350/.500. That is a pretty good player but not a difference maker. Rizzo hasn't reached that level of production yet. I hope he does and I think it is a pretty safe bet that he will reach it at one point in his career. I just don't see him being much more than that type of player though.

I'm guessing we evaluate offense two different ways because the career numbers of Adam LaRoche and Jay Bruce are pretty similar. LaRoche has a higher OBP and Bruce has a higher SLG but their OPS and OPS+ over their careers are virtually identical. I think Bruce has more power than Rizzo, but like LaRoche I think he will walk at a better clip.

beckdawg · Sep 15, 2013

dabynsky said:
When I am talking about Adam LaRoche, I am talking about a guy that hits .270/.350/.500. That is a pretty good player but not a difference maker. Rizzo hasn't reached that level of production yet. I hope he does and I think it is a pretty safe bet that he will reach it at one point in his career. I just don't see him being much more than that type of player though.

I'm guessing we evaluate offense two different ways because the career numbers of Adam LaRoche and Jay Bruce are pretty similar. LaRoche has a higher OBP and Bruce has a higher SLG but their OPS and OPS+ over their careers are virtually identical. I think Bruce has more power than Rizzo, but like LaRoche I think he will walk at a better clip.

Ok that's fine about LaRoche. I just generally look at what the player averages. As for LaRoche vs Bruce, perhaps. Rizzo does have a lot more doubles than Bruce and LaRoche did put up many as well. That said, LaRoche only hit more than 25 HR's twice and I think Rizzo will be more in that 25-30 range most seasons. So, perhaps he's LaRoche during his good years with a bit more power. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Rizzo turns into a 30/95/.270 type guy. Which looking at your .500 slugging mark, basically is LaRoche in 2012, 2008 and 2006 for a full season. So, I guess we're sort of in agreement.

CSF77 · Sep 16, 2013

It is still to early to assess Rizzo. Right now is 3 years short of his prime (27) and is in the typical sophomore jinx. Or when teams have data on him and he has to adjust to it. If he is hitting .230 by June next year I'll be concerned. Based off of this year not so much.

Cubs2008 · Sep 16, 2013

Um, maybe that has something to do with us being Cub fans and not Padre fans and not having to concern ourselves with how Rizzo hits at PETCO Park. If Cashner's stuff is so great, why is he just this year breaking into the Padres' rotation at age 27? Why is his strikeout rate so down? Guy screams "PETCO product to me...

Um, maybe it's because you'd rather ignore key information as to whether or not the Cubs got the better en onthe deal. Maybe you're just rooting blindly for any bozo they brin along.

SilenceS · Sep 16, 2013

So, Andrew Cashner throws a complete game 1 hitter. He gave up a single in the Bottom of the 7th. He beat the Pirates in their house and only took 97 pitches to do it. He had 7 K's and no walks. I don't know if he will pitch again because they wanted to shut him down soon. So, his final line as of today.

168.0 IP
3.22 ERA
3.44 FIP
3.69 XFIP
121 K's
47 BB's
12 Hrs 5 at Petco, 7 on the road

34 of those walks were on the road.

SilenceS · Sep 16, 2013

The 27-year-old has now been ridiculously good for five consecutive performances. Despite going 2-1 over that stretch for San Diego, Cashner has allowed just four earned runs over that span of 37 2/3 innings with 31 strikeouts. Cashner will make his next start for the Padres on Sunday at home versus the Dodgers and will look to keep rolling for the Padres.

Cubs2008 · Sep 16, 2013

The more I think about it, the more I think we lost this trade.

SilenceS · Sep 16, 2013

Cubs2008 said:
The more I think about it, the more I think we lost this trade.

I wouldn't go that far yet. I still think its TBD. Rizzo was better last year. Cashner has been better this year. Cashner has seemed to figure out how to use his stuff efficiently. The hard slider is getting close from what I am reading which people believe will bring him to a whole new level. I think in the next year or two, Rizzo will become expandable and a power pitcher will be a lot harder for the Cubs to get. We will see, but anyone who thinks Cashner has not had a really good season if just putting blinders on.