Checking in on potential free agents that the Cubs might be interested in

[Rice Cube]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/2013-payroll-commitments.html

Cubs have $41.8MM committed to 2013 before auto-renewals, arbitration, and paying dudes still on the 40-man roster. Adding those in would probably get the Cubs closer to $70MM or so. So there's plenty of space to add in a couple super free agents, or to just add Kelly Johnson and Edwin Jackson and stay under $100MM. A guy like Josh Hamilton will result in the loss of a draft pick but Greinke could be had without losing said pick. Would be interesting to see what the Cubs do with all the money coming off the books.

 

[nwfisch]

To be perfectly honest, I'd rather the Cubs pass on Johnson and Jackson. I'd rather see the Cubs save up for elite starting pitching to hit the market.

 

[Rice Cube]

They have like $70MM to play with. Trust me, they'll be able to afford the elite starting pitching even if they threw a bit of money at middling free agents :lol:

 

[2SeamHeat]

To be perfectly honest, I'd rather the Cubs pass on Johnson and Jackson. I'd rather see the Cubs save up for elite starting pitching to hit the market.

Like... Greinke this year? The problem with saving and waiting for elite class pitching is the fact that there isn't much hitting the FA market anymore that's actually worth granting more than a 2-4 year contract to. That's fine and dandy is you're looking to bolster a rotation for only a couple of years, but most of those pitchers typically start negotiations with 4-5 years... and rarely back down.

 

[Rice Cube]

That's part of the reason why I suggested Edwin Jackson. He's a solid enough pitcher and he only had a one-year deal this past season, so it's entirely possible he could be had for cheap. In 2014 there are a bunch of solid pitchers coming onto the market as well, so getting a fill-in this year while saving up for next year might not be a terrible idea. Also, since Greinke doesn't cost a draft pick as far as I can tell, he could still be useful for when the team (theoretically) gets good again.

 

[2SeamHeat]

That's part of the reason why I suggested Edwin Jackson. He's a solid enough pitcher and he only had a one-year deal this past season, so it's entirely possible he could be had for cheap. In 2014 there are a bunch of solid pitchers coming onto the market as well, so getting a fill-in this year while saving up for next year might not be a terrible idea. Also, since Greinke doesn't cost a draft pick as far as I can tell, he could still be useful for when the team (theoretically) gets good again.

I'd prefer to go after guys that were traded. Not a huge fan of Johnson. Too many injuries... and HUGE differences between pitching in that monstrous stadium in Miami and on the road prior to this year. Sanchez's injury history scares me. Greinke is probably going to get Hamels-type money, which is more than he's worth in all actuality. Marcum will most likely hit the market this winter, and his injury this year might make him cheaper than normal... but it's a risk since this isn't the first time he's had major health issues. Jackson's not an elite-class pitcher. He's more of a solid #2-3 guy, and we already have that with Shark's potential and Garza. We need a couple of actual aces or near aces to put in the #1-2 spots.

We can look toward next year with Lincecum, Lester, Karstens, and Braden... but Karstens and Braden have injury issues this year. If Lincecum continues to return to form as he has in the second half this year, he'll probably be taken off the table with an extension. Lester is already trade bait, which means there's a good chance at extending him (plus he has an option for 2014).

So, again, you run into the problem of seeing nothing really worth granting a contract of more than 2-3 years to being on the market... and with how this team is trying to rebuild, you need more than 2-3 years for those guys being there when the team is ready to make a run.

 

[Rice Cube]

The potential contract Greinke will get is probably going to dissuade the Cubs from trying (same with Hamilton) which is why I think they'll just be in to drive up the price tag and that's about it.

The problem with the 2-3 year contract idea is that the pitchers who you want will need to be offered 5-6 year contracts at least to even want to talk to you. So again, Edwin Jackson makes sense even if he's just a #3 guy, because you want the Paul Maholm-like flexibility to move him midseason when the Cubs are out of it in 2013. That's what I'm looking for here, and that's what I believe the Cubs will try for via free agency.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Don't get me wrong. I'm all in favor of the Cubs making a couple of big splashes on FA pitching THIS year. My arguments are actually in design to show the importance of doing it now when there is an opportunity to get a couple of those front-end type guys. A rotation of Greinke, Sanchez/Jackson/Marcum, Garza, Shark, and Wood (Vizcaino if he comes back strong and capable of starting) could be incredible down the line. If you can get just 3 of Rizzo, Jackson, Vitters, Szczur, Soler, Watkins, Lake, Torreyes, Alcantara (maybe even Baez) to pan out by 2014-2015 to bolster the offense... you could have a special team with plugging in the other holes around them with FAs of trade acquisitions.

If you don't make a splash this year in pitching, you may not have the option in upcoming years.

 

[Rice Cube]

The payroll flexibility definitely makes all this possible. Since the front office is always so mum, I doubt we'll know until November or December anyway.

 

[2SeamHeat]

The payroll flexibility definitely makes all this possible. Since the front office is always so mum, I doubt we'll know until November or December anyway.

I'm keeping kind of a close eye on Marcum. He's a special kind of pitcher overall, but his body seems to be made of bone china. At least this year's injury wasn't arm-related. If he finishes strong, I'd go after him hard. He's only making $7.73M this year... so it's reasonable this think that he won't get a $13M+ from Milwaukee as a qualifying offer. He might be singable for 5 years/$60-65M.

Greinke is going to go for something like 6 years/$126M at the least (Hamels got 6 years/$144M). He reportedly turned down a 5-year $100M extension from Milwaukee. That could mean he wants more cash or years... it could also mean he wanted out of Milwaukee. Since there is so much payroll flexibility, I'd actually take that risk and make the move. Even if it cost me 6 years/$135M. It's not going to cost a draft pick, and he's the best pitcher available either this year or next... and probably for the year after as well.

If you can net both Greinke and Marcum for this kind of cash... and still not lose a pick (or maybe just a 2nd rounder).... that would be huge for the rebuild.

However, I think the FO is more likely to make a Jackson, Guthrie, Liriano, Blanton, McCarthy, Sanchez (either Anibal or Johnathan) kind of deals.

 

[Rice Cube]

Both Sanchezes have been traded so they wouldn't be subject to the draft pick comp. Might come cheap too, especially since Jonathan kinda sucks and Anibal has been underwhelming in Detroit.

McCarthy is sort of a long-shot, I can't imagine the A's not extending him. For the injury issue alone I'd stay the hell away from Marcum.

 

[WC Jerome]

Honestly, I don't really expect to make any kind of splash in the free-agent market this fall/winter. More than likely, the stove is gonna be pretty cold on the North Side. ity:

 

[dabynsky]

Honestly Liriano seems more likely as a target for the Cubs. He is a lefty which the new FO has shown a preference. His year has been up and down which would fit in with the potential buy low candidate. He was traded in the middle of the year so there is no option for losing the draft pick. I could see the Sox trying to keep him, but Liriano seems much more in keeping with what the Cubs will do than Edwin Jackson and Brandon McCarthy which will probably command some sizeable money given that they are the best pitchers available after Greinke.

 

[Rice Cube]

The HBT guys are compiling a list of top free agents. This post is pretty much the crap at the bottom of the barrel, so to speak...

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/05/2013-top-111-free-agents-nos-111-81/

Guess I'll keep tabs on this series.

 

[waldo7239117]

I think if a blockbuster comes their, the Cubs will jump on it. If the player is 25 or younger. Aka Justin Upton. I do think we'll hear Upton for Garza rumors in the off-season, but I do expect Upton to be traded this Winter. If it's the Cubs or anothher team.

If the Cubs do acquire Upton, I think Soriano will be traded. And as I keep sayin', the Rays as the favorite.

I think the Cubs are starting to have more faith in Jackson and he'll start in CF next. So an OF of Upton, Jackson and Dejesus isn't the best but I'm for it.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

The only big thing that happens in the next calendar year is Soriano being moved.

 

[Rice Cube]

Next in the HBT free agent rundown:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/06/2013-top-111-free-agents-nos-80-51/

 

[Rice Cube]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/07/2013-top-111-free-agents-nos-50-1/

Last in the series.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Have a weird feeling that if we move Soriano.. we could grab Ludwick on a smallish deal.

 

[Rice Cube]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/nationals-hope-to-retain-adam-laroche.html

LaRoche may be available. Problem is that he plays 1B...not sure if he's ever stood in the OF, guess I should check that.

That'd be a negative on OF in MLB. Has played RF in the minors before though, but only three games or so.