Chicago Cubs 2023-24 OFFSEASON thread

[truthbedamned]

While I agree with what your saying here about needing a good 1st baseman, Truth....but you'd probably need close to a standing 3 foot vertical jump to snag a throw 5 feet over your head. MJ is his prime might be able to get up there....not seeing many MLB guys who can though.

Just to check my theory. I measured my arm reach over my head. It was 32 inches. Adding that a glove web adds another 8 inches at least. That makes 40 inches. Add a 22 year old should be able to jump 36 inches and we are well past the 5 foot threshold.

Jump taken from the NFL vertical jump. 36 was in the norm.

Regardless.....putting a fielding liability at first is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Castor76]

Just to check my theory. I measured my arm reach over my head. It was 32 inches. Adding that a glove web adds another 8 inches at least. That makes 40 inches. Add a 22 year old should be able to jump 36 inches and we are well past the 5 foot threshold.

Jump taken from the NFL vertical jump. 36 was in the norm.

Regardless.....putting a fielding liability at first is a recipe for disaster.

So you're telling us that from your armpit to the tip of your fingers is somewhere between 42-48 inches, allowing for 10-16 inches for neck and head? For that to be probable, you'd have to be one of the tallest people in the world ever, like 8 feet tall.

Realistically, if a throw is more than a foot above a player's standing reach, it's going to sail over his head because he's not going to have time to react to it before it gets there.

 

[truthbedamned]

So you're telling us that from your armpit to the tip of your fingers is somewhere between 42-48 inches, allowing for 10-16 inches for neck and head? For that to be probable, you'd have to be one of the tallest people in the world ever, like 8 feet tall.

Realistically, if a throw is more than a foot above a player's standing reach, it's going to sail over his head because he's not going to have time to react to it before it gets there.

I forgot what forum I'm in.

Sorry for the intrusion.

 

[beckdawg]

Ever played first base? Ever had to catch shitty throws 5 feet over your head or scoop horeshit throws? I have. It is not an "easy" position. First base can either make or break a team.

I mean baseball people would disagree with you. Like what you're saying isn't entirely inaccurate. Scooping bad throws is challenging. The takeaway you're missing though is that those errors hurt you less than other positions. For example, a CF with bad range doesn't get to balls that land into the gaps and those turn into doubles/triples and do so at a higher rate than shitty throws.

Range particularly in CF and middle infield is important because thats where damage is done. If you have a bad throw, unless it ends up in the stands or terribly typically the guy isn't advancing much if any. So obviously it's better if you make the play but normally its just like giving up a single rather than an extra base hit. And 1B in particular isn't a position people expect you to have great range at. That is why you end up with 1B being the home for "bad" defenders.

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth, I think people are equating 2 things incorrectly. You can be fine at 1B and bad at 3B/2B in Busch's case. In terms of 2B, he doesn't really have the range you seek for a prototypical 2B. So the only real way to improve that is better positioning and quicker reaction but there's limits to that. In terms of 3B, he has a fringy arm vs a prototypical 3B. His range would likely be fine there but because of a weaker arm he's better off playing 1B.

End of the day though, your defense only matters as much as you can hit. MLB teams play a lot of bad defenders because they hit well.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I love how this thread has turned into measuring arm length and ability to jump, lol.

But to keep it simple, someone that is 6 feet tall would have to be able to dunk a basketball at 10.5 ft. to catch a ball 5 feet over there head.

I get the argument though. I just think playing first base is very teachable.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Well...."adequate" and "passable". What's not to love?

THat is pretty much half of the leagues first basemen right?

 

[Castor76]

THat is pretty much half of the leagues first basemen right?

Just as a representation of this, Mervis was tied for 2nd in DWAR according to ESPN for 1B.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs would be better off going after Chapman for 3B to stabilize the team D.

If Jed is not willing to go to 200M for Cody then stabilize the D at 3B and push PCA to CF and focus on run suppression.

 

[CSF77]

Zips projections

Cody Bellinger - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Cody Bellinger career batting statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Cody 3fWAR Projected.

Matt 4.0 fWAR projected


2023. Cody 4.1 fWAR
2023 Matt 3.5 fWAR

So with Cody you are coming off a -1 fWAR and a 1.8 season.

Matt 4.0 and 4.1 and had a down season of 3.5.


So just looking at the numbers Matt is a safer bet. Cody could regress next year.

Taking everything personal aside you want less risk if you invest.


And in reality 3B has no certain answer on the team or in the system. At best you are moving Shaw over and are crossing your fingers

1B at baseline you have Mervis or Busch. Even Wisdom can man the spot with out killing you

So it is cheaper and fills a larger need going forward and at min you are looking at a GG quality left side of the field.

 

[Castor76]

I can see the Cubs doing anything from signing Bellinger and Chapman and then trading for Cease or Luzardo to stack the team up with as many more known entities as possible or going into the season as is and letting the young guys sink or swim before taking what would be the then roughly 80M before the CBT to fill SP, RP, and C.

I think it falls somewhere in between with a sticking point for Bellinger or Chapman being how many years to commit to them. That's why I think front loaded contracts with opt outs and buy outs are best for both. Chapman has an estimated market value of 17M. Maybe he goes for a 3 year deal for 65M set at 25/25/15 with an opt outs after years 1 and 2 or a 5M buy out after year 2. Something similar for Cody with maybe a few more years. Having both of them gives the Cubs arguably the best defensive team in baseball and a probable upgrade on what was the 6th best run scoring team last season.

 

[CSF77]

I can see the Cubs doing anything from signing Bellinger and Chapman and then trading for Cease or Luzardo to stack the team up with as many more known entities as possible or going into the season as is and letting the young guys sink or swim before taking what would be the then roughly 80M before the CBT to fill SP, RP, and C.

I think it falls somewhere in between with a sticking point for Bellinger or Chapman being how many years to commit to them. That's why I think front loaded contracts with opt outs and buy outs are best for both. Chapman has an estimated market value of 17M. Maybe he goes for a 3 year deal for 65M set at 25/25/15 with an opt outs after years 1 and 2 or a 5M buy out after year 2. Something similar for Cody with maybe a few more years. Having both of them gives the Cubs arguably the best defensive team in baseball and a probable upgrade on what was the 6th best run scoring team last season.

75% as is. 25% one or both.

I can see this dragging into S/T with all 4 of Scott's guys. We can blame the TV deal on why Texas is not more involved. Cubs don't have that issue. They do not want to pay 200M on a guy that they have internal options on.

We are not talking about a player with a history of 5+ WAR production year in and out. He is more akin to Bryant and that should be his high water.

 

[CSF77]

Current projected line up:

Tauchman CF. .356 OBA led the team last year.

Hoerner 2B led the team with 175.hits. you want contact here.

Happ. You could argue Suzuki here also. Both have a argument point and Suzuki might have more weight going in

Suzuki or Happ. I would guess the better run producer get the 3 hole nod.

Morel. He holds impact at the plate. More PA for a bat first player.

Swanson. He could move up but he would have to do better than last year. As of now this is a good spot

Bosch. Just to get a lefty in there. He could move up also but I expect little out of his first year struggles.

Gomes. For a catcher he is great. But if you start depending on his O then game over.

Madgral. Good Glove and can make contact. They have to lessen his sup par hitting. (Below 100 wRC+) We could see Wisdom pushing for some of his PA's but yet again this could end up as a ugly 3 head gnat fighting for PA's

 

[CSF77]

SP. pridictons

Wicks 25 starts.
Assad 10 pick up starts.
Imanaga 25 starts
Steele 30 starts
Hendricks 32 starts
Taillon 32 starts

Horton 5 starts
#other 3 starts

I believe most starters will end up in the high 3 to low 4 ERA. IP should be suppressed in this age so games started to me means more.

Teams have gone more to metrics and 3rd time through the line up they are switching to a fresh arm. In the past it was more of a duel between starters. That is no longer the case.

 

[CSF77]

Other news.

Caissie and Shaw are getting non roster invites. Horton is not

I believe this is due to Jed and co wanting to see Shaw at 3B and see where he is going into the year.
Caissie will be at Iowa to start the year so it makes sense to get him into the mix as one injury pushes up his time line.

I wouldn't look into Horton too much. I see him as pushing the promotion vs them expected to give it.

 

[TL1961]

Just to check my theory. I measured my arm reach over my head. It was 32 inches. Adding that a glove web adds another 8 inches at least. That makes 40 inches. Add a 22 year old should be able to jump 36 inches and we are well past the 5 foot threshold.

Jump taken from the NFL vertical jump. 36 was in the norm.

Regardless.....putting a fielding liability at first is a recipe for disaster.

I am in full agreement that it’s important to have a good defensive first baseman.

I would add, however, that if throws are a full five feet above the head of the first baseman, he is not the problem

Then again, it should be moot. SS and 2B are manned by gold glovers and nobody on the roster playing 3rd can throw hard enough to get a ball five feet over the 1B’s head.

 

[MDB111™]

I once caught a ball at first that was 6ft over my head... with my dick.

 

[knoxville7]

I once caught a ball at first that was 6ft over my head... with my dick.

I seent him do it!

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Now that I think about it, I won't be overly upset if we don't get Belly. I am not 100% sold he won't regress and his defensive metrics last year weren't typical of him, he was negative, so if his bat goes bad, we have a worst player than Jason Heyward was.

I also really want to see what we have with Morel, Busch and PCA. Morel needs to find a position, plug him in at third this year, see if he doesn't kill us, Busch needs time to develop at first and play there everyday, and PCA just needs at bats.

IF the team is competing by the all-star break then we make some trades to push the team over the top.

If our pitching staff can be top ten, we should still win our division in a year where it is pretty weak.

 

[knoxville7]

Now that I think about it, I won't be overly upset if we don't get Belly. I am not 100% sold he won't regress and his defensive metrics last year weren't typical of him, he was negative, so if his bat goes bad, we have a worst player than Jason Heyward was.

I also really want to see what we have with Morel, Busch and PCA. Morel needs to find a position, plug him in at third this year, see if he doesn't kill us, Busch needs time to develop at first and play there everyday, and PCA just needs at bats.

IF the team is competing by the all-star break then we make some trades to push the team over the top.

If our pitching staff can be top ten, we should still win our division in a year where it is pretty weak.

#Coping

Also, glad people are finally coming around to what I’ve been saying all along…Bellinger isn’t worth the risk that comes with a big contract. A short 1-3 year deal, sure…anything more than that you run away