The conflict in your statement was not that any ASU coach would be a great NFL coach. The conflict in your statement was that you had made two statements in direct opposition to each other. You stated that you wanted a smart hire that isn't a media-driven storyline about a one-year turnaround, and then you talk up a one year turnaround for a college team that doesn't exactly face top competition.
But the conclusion of your statement also does not make sense. It is not easy to identify coaching talent because football is football. I used an AI to compile this data, so please bare with me and feel free to point out any data point it missed. I am stereotypically a luddite, and so I only use AI for data compilation, and this felt like a good use. My request criteria was to compile all coaching hires since 2000, and to list every coach that lasted at least 6 years in the league, appeared in at least one conference championship game, and have an overall winning record as an HC (feel free to object to this criteria, but it felt like something anyone would accept as a minimum for the next HC).
AI gave me the following results: Bill Belichick, Andy Ried, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy, Bruce Arians, John Fox, Sean McVay, Mike Holmgren, Gary Kubiak and Mike Vrabel out of 175+ HC hires. Jim Harbaugh fits this criteria after next season. If he can get a big enough winning season together next year, Zac Taylor joins this bunch. There just arent a lot of guys out there that sustain success to identify, and most of these guys were HCs for multiple teams. If it shouldnt be so hard to find a good coach at the NFL level, and a good organization knew where the best talent was, then this list would be longer and the coaches would have stuck with one team. I really don't think your point holds water (cue My Cousin Vinny, the greatest courtroom movie of all time).
I put this criteria together not knowing that Vrabel fit the criteria, because I thought he was only HC for 5 years. My mistake, but I wanted the criteria to extend beyond what Vrabel had accomplished in Tennessee.