Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[JP Hochbaum]

This year is supposed to be a growing year for the guys like Russell, Soler and Bryant, and Castro and Rizzo are supposed to protect and carry them when they slump, which is essentially happening. Just think of how fun it will be when the team has a year under their belts and it is Almora and Schwarber up here next year (hopefully).

 

[beckdawg]

Anyone know why Pierce Johnson isn't playing atm? He's yet to pitch in 2015 and I don't remember hearing anything about an injury. Strikes me as odd.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Anyone know why Pierce Johnson isn't playing atm? He's yet to pitch in 2015 and I don't remember hearing anything about an injury. Strikes me as odd.

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-being-cautious-pitching-prospect-pierce-johnson

 

[SilenceS]

Anyone else think CJ Edwards will be up in late June/July? The Cubs specificallly sent him to AA and the bullpen so he wouldnt throw much and would be able to throw more innings later in the summer with the Cubs feeling comfortable. It seems they have every intention of throwing him in the bullpen on the ML squad this year if the Cubs are playing for a spot.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Anyone else think CJ Edwards will be up in late June/July? The Cubs specificallly sent him to AA and the bullpen so he wouldnt throw much and would be able to throw more innings later in the summer with the Cubs feeling comfortable. It seems they have every intention of throwing him in the bullpen on the ML squad this year if the Cubs are playing for a spot.

I had thought so but I didn't think he was pitching well. Maybe that's changed?

 

[SilenceS]

I had thought so but I didn't think he was pitching well. Maybe that's changed?

He has only pitched 8 innings. he had a bad one. His last outing was solid. They arent pitching him much.

 

[beckdawg]

Anyone else think CJ Edwards will be up in late June/July? The Cubs specificallly sent him to AA and the bullpen so he wouldnt throw much and would be able to throw more innings later in the summer with the Cubs feeling comfortable. It seems they have every intention of throwing him in the bullpen on the ML squad this year if the Cubs are playing for a spot.

Kind of feel this is a bit early. Honestly, if they intend to keep him starting then I'd almost rather they built up his arm in the minors. He's only pitched more than 100 innings once in 2013 and the following year he had an injury. Not necessarily saying they were related but that is the worry about him. If they intend to use him long term as a reliever I have less of an issue with it.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Kind of feel this is a bit early. Honestly, if they intend to keep him starting then I'd almost rather they built up his arm in the minors. He's only pitched more than 100 innings once in 2013 and the following year he had an injury. Not necessarily saying they were related but that is the worry about him. If they intend to use him long term as a reliever I have less of an issue with it.

Everything I've read and everything Jason McCleod has said publicly, if you read between the lines a bit, indicates that they're going to handle Edwards a little like Jeff Samardzija was handled coming up as a reliever maybe for a year or so then get some spot starts and finally competing for a spot in the rotation. I do think they have planned on bringing him sometime this year, see how he does in the pen and do the same next year maybe getting those spot starts due to injuries or what have you. On that timeline he could compete for the rotation in 2017. I don't think they plan on him putting many more minor league innings on his arm.

 

[beckdawg]

Everything I've read and everything Jason McCleod has said publicly, if you read between the lines a bit, indicates that they're going to handle Edwards a little like Jeff Samardzija was handled coming up as a reliever maybe for a year or so then get some spot starts and finally competing for a spot in the rotation. I do think they have planned on bringing him sometime this year, see how he does in the pen and do the same next year maybe getting those spot starts due to injuries or what have you. On that timeline he could compete for the rotation in 2017. I don't think they plan on him putting many more minor league innings on his arm.

Shark threw 141.2 innings in 2007. In 2008, he threw 141 innings(27.2 in the majors). In 2009, he threw 89.0 in AAA and 34.2 in the majors. In 2010, he threw 111.1 in AAA and 19.1 in the majors. In 2011(his last year as a reliever), he threw 88.0 innings in the majors. Point here being, they still built up the guys arm.

Edwards threw 67 innings in 2012, 116.1 innings in 2013 and 68.2 in 2014. There's a considerable difference there.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Shark threw 141.2 innings in 2007. In 2008, he threw 141 innings(27.2 in the majors). In 2009, he threw 89.0 in AAA and 34.2 in the majors. In 2010, he threw 111.1 in AAA and 19.1 in the majors. In 2011(his last year as a reliever), he threw 88.0 innings in the majors. Point here being, they still built up the guys arm.

Edwards threw 67 innings in 2012, 116.1 innings in 2013 and 68.2 in 2014. There's a considerable difference there.

I understand that, I think they are going to follow a similar model with a lot less innings. They feel the stuff is there and don't seem to have the concerns that alot of scouts outside the organization have about Edwards. I have no idea whether they are right or wrong.

 

[beckdawg]

I understand that, I think they are going to follow a similar model with a lot less innings. They feel the stuff is there and don't seem to have the concerns that alot of scouts outside the organization have about Edwards. I have no idea whether they are right or wrong.

If that's what they think it seems kind of silly to me. I mean it is basically saying AA/AAA don't mean that much for pitchers. I mean he's thrown 63 innings at AA and 15 more in the AFL at a similar competition level and prior to that only had 23 at high A. So, to go from that to the majors this year seems highly unlikely to me. That's essentially 3 levels of competition in under 100 innings thus far plus maybe toss on another 50 before midseason. I honestly feel like he needs at least another year in the minors. I could maybe see a call up when rosters expand to 40 man but anything prior to that seems too much too fast.

 

[CSF77]

The plan was to keep him the pen for the first half then let his start to keep his innings in check. Shark is not a good comp because Edwards came off of injury last year and had to do AZL to make up for the lost time. IMO they are questioning his durability.

 

[SilenceS]

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/why-cubs-are-starting-cj-edwards-tennessee-bullpen


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[SilenceS]

They plan on limiting his innings in April and May. They want him to be strong for the end of the season. They would like to bring him up for the bullpen at some point and go from there. Hoyer breaks it down pretty good


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[CSF77]

Tyler Ihrig's first game at Iowa: 5 IP 2 ER 5 hits 2 BB 3 SO Not bad.

Baez: 2 fir 4 with a HR. 2 SO but over all his BA is at .265 now. It will get interesting pretty soon if he continues to hit. I don't see Russell going anywhere so that put's the Cubs brass in a interesting situation if Baez forces this.

 

[beckdawg]

Tyler Ihrig's first game at Iowa: 5 IP 2 ER 5 hits 2 BB 3 SO Not bad.

Baez: 2 fir 4 with a HR. 2 SO but over all his BA is at .265 now. It will get interesting pretty soon if he continues to hit. I don't see Russell going anywhere so that put's the Cubs brass in a interesting situation if Baez forces this.

I don't really see that Baez has changed from his 2014 AAA numbers. He's walking a it more which is nice I suppose though it's only been what 13 games? Maybe part of that is my fault for shitting on him with numbers so much that I changed some people's opinion around here anyways. My point with that was always that I felt without something large changing his ceiling was limited because of his K rate. That's not to say that his MLB stint some how made him regress. However, if he were to continue playing this way and were to be called up again my view is he'd have the exact same issues.

To me what it comes down to is him not only hitting for a decent triple slash but him getting down into the 23-25% K range at AAA. If he can do that then I think he starts to be a bit more interesting. At the MLB level that might play up to 27-28% but that's progress from last year obviously. Still doubt that makes him the player everyone envisions when they heard he was a top 10 prospect but I can get on board with a guy making gains.

Thing is though, I still don't see where he's ever going to get a chance to prove himself with the cubs outside of a lengthy injury to someone in the infield. The way Schwarber is hitting you have to believe he'll be in AAA soon. Probably after a similar 300ish PAs in AA that Bryant got. So, while you conceivably could figure something out with Baez or Russell at 3rd, by the time that is ready to happen I feel like you're going to be talking about Schwarber and promotion to likely LF. If that's where you're headed why blow an option on Baez? Olt at some point will be back which gives you the option of Bryant in LF some anyways. You've already used this years on Alcantara and he's more versatile off the bench so he too could potentially see some play if Cogs doesn't play well. So, I sort of feel like Baez is going to have to play out of his mind good for it to matter.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't really see that Baez has changed from his 2014 AAA numbers. He's walking a it more which is nice I suppose though it's only been what 13 games? Maybe part of that is my fault for shitting on him with numbers so much that I changed some people's opinion around here anyways. My point with that was always that I felt without something large changing his ceiling was limited because of his K rate. That's not to say that his MLB stint some how made him regress. However, if he were to continue playing this way and were to be called up again my view is he'd have the exact same issues.

To me what it comes down to is him not only hitting for a decent triple slash but him getting down into the 23-25% K range at AAA. If he can do that then I think he starts to be a bit more interesting. At the MLB level that might play up to 27-28% but that's progress from last year obviously. Still doubt that makes him the player everyone envisions when they heard he was a top 10 prospect but I can get on board with a guy making gains.

Thing is though, I still don't see where he's ever going to get a chance to prove himself with the cubs outside of a lengthy injury to someone in the infield. The way Schwarber is hitting you have to believe he'll be in AAA soon. Probably after a similar 300ish PAs in AA that Bryant got. So, while you conceivably could figure something out with Baez or Russell at 3rd, by the time that is ready to happen I feel like you're going to be talking about Schwarber and promotion to likely LF. If that's where you're headed why blow an option on Baez? Olt at some point will be back which gives you the option of Bryant in LF some anyways. You've already used this years on Alcantara and he's more versatile off the bench so he too could potentially see some play if Cogs doesn't play well. So, I sort of feel like Baez is going to have to play out of his mind good for it to matter.

Baez can play all the positions Alcantara can play. He can actually play them better and has a stronger more accurate arm. His K% is right around 28% and thats with 2 games of 3 strikeout performances. Around 21% the other 10. His walk rate is over 9%. Alcantara is strikeout at the same rate and has a lower walk rate. Baez is beating out Alcantara.

Also, this is Baez homerun. Giancarlo Stanton is the only other player I have seen hit a ball harder. This is why the Cubs are not quick to move him. This is why people will always salivate over him. Not many players that can do that dont make it.

http://bornonthird.mlblogs.com/2015/05/12/javier-baez-destroys-a-baseball-video/

 

[beckdawg]

Baez can play all the positions Alcantara can play. He can actually play them better and has a stronger more accurate arm. His K% is right around 28% and thats with 2 games of 3 strikeout performances. Around 21% the other 10. His walk rate is over 9%. Alcantara is strikeout at the same rate and has a lower walk rate. Baez is beating out Alcantara.

Also, this is Baez homerun. Giancarlo Stanton is the only other player I have seen hit a ball harder. This is why the Cubs are not quick to move him. This is why people will always salivate over him. Not many players that can do that dont make it.

http://bornonthird.mlblogs.com/2015/05/12/javier-baez-destroys-a-baseball-video/

Eh... about the don't make it thing.... I'm not entirely sure I read that right but there's PLENTY of people who hit the ball hard who don't make it or at least guys with ridiculous power who aren't stars. Jack Cust comes to mind. Russell Brayan is another. I agree they shouldn't move Baez for whatever they can get. Not sure if you've seen the mets thread or not but it feels weird I'm the one of all people defending his value there.

As for positional thing, what I mean is Alcantara is probably a more versatile bench player. That's not just a positional thing. Alcantara is objectively faster. Not saying Baez is slow but if you're going to pinch run Alcantara is the guy. Alcantara also switch hits. Whether or not he actually "hits" there is another issue but having the match up edge is another area of benefit. As for the positional thing, I'd agree Baez probably can play all the positions Alcantara can but he hasn't really done it and at the very least would be rusty there comparable to Alcantara.

Regardless, I don't really see the logic behind calling Baez up to be a bench/platoon player. It's also hard for me to envision them calling him up to play LF/3B every day unless they literally start giving him looks there now. If they did that for a month in the minors then sure I suppose I could buy him coming up if he was hitting well but that doesn't really seem likely. As much as I love Alcantara's skill set and think he can be a big time player, if Cogs continues playing meh I could definitely see the benefit of Alcantara as a platoon option if he figures out his hitting issues in the next month because they have lately been running a short bench. Plus like I said, you've already burn the option year on Alcantara this year anyways. So, there's no cost to calling him where as with Baez there would be one.

That's why I view it as Baez having to force their hand Bryant style as the way he gets back barring injury or Russell just sucking for whatever reason. For example, let's say Herrera gets hurt. Why would you call Baez up to sit the bench and burn an option year? You almost certainly would call up Alcantara because you've already burned it for him and while Baez is hitting better, Alcantara probably offers you more off the bench where as Baez is probably the better every day player at this point in their respective careers.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Addison Russell is up to stay, imho. Baez is going to have to do some spectacular things to make it back to Wrigley.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

There is a gaping hole in LF where Baez could play, I doubt they move Bryant at this point as he is playing well there and Baez is the one that has to prove himself now.