CSF77
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[video=youtube;WpZxQ-oVKbI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpZxQ-oVKbI[/video]
CSF77
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Baez played CF in highschool. He started as a 2B, went to CF and ended up at SS where he was drafted. So he has the ability to play the OF for sure.
That said he needs 100 AB's at Iowa before they make any decisions.
Breaking it down: per game: 3.77 AB's. .38 BB per game. 1 BB every 3 days. 1.23 SO/game. So every day expect at least 1 SO. 1.0 Hits per game. So expect 1 hit every day. Power: 2 2B/2 HR. So 1 extra bag every 3 days on avg.
Over all his avg day is 1 for 4 (3 on every 3rd day for his BB) 1 hit(every 3rd day a extra bag) 1 SO (a 2nd every 4th game)
That is what he is right now vs AAA pitching. It is better than Cogs but it has to improve as it will dip with promotion.
CSF77
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2012: 23.6% SO (A to A+)
2013: 28.4% SO (A+ to AA)
2014: AAA: 33.5% SO MLB: 44.6% SO
2015: AAA: 32.7% SO
So the change is not much on SO's. BB: 2014 AAA: 8.7% 2015: 10.2%
So that has gone up over 1%.
So over all a 1% dip to a SO rate over 30% means less than a 1% rise to BB under 10%.
IMO he needs to be at 25% SO vs AAA pitching while keeping his BB% the same.
This really supports that he needs more time in AAA.
2013: 28.4% SO (A+ to AA)
2014: AAA: 33.5% SO MLB: 44.6% SO
2015: AAA: 32.7% SO
So the change is not much on SO's. BB: 2014 AAA: 8.7% 2015: 10.2%
So that has gone up over 1%.
So over all a 1% dip to a SO rate over 30% means less than a 1% rise to BB under 10%.
IMO he needs to be at 25% SO vs AAA pitching while keeping his BB% the same.
This really supports that he needs more time in AAA.
beckdawg
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The problem with this is you need some lead up. They aren't just going to call him up to the majors and say welp now you're a LFer. Thus far he's played nothing but 2B in Iowa so it seems pretty obvious that isn't their plan either.
TC in Mississippi
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What's more surprising and possibly telling is that an organizational depth guy in Jonathan Mota is starting at SS in Iowa right now while Javy remains at 2B. If trading him was in the plans you would think he would be playing SS as a means to build value. Lends some credence to the thought that Castro could be traded, Russell moved to SS and Baez comes back up to play 2B.
edit:
I just saw that Alcantara played SS for Iowa last night. Maybe they're working on his value as a more versatile player.
beckdawg
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Eh... maybe @ Baez. I tend to believe it's more just a case of giving him fewer crap to worry about. He's been playing 2B for the last bit so don't think you want to complicate things by making him worry about a harder to field position. Feel like you want to get his bat right then defense will work itself out.
CSF77
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Baez has been shifting between 2B and SS. Alcantara has played CF, SS, 2B, 3B and LF. They are still tossing him around.
CSF77
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He has played some SS also. This makes me believe he will end up traded though. You are right that they are keeping at the MI where his trade value is the highest. VS shifting to the OF where he would be getting playing time.
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Is this about Baez because after today's game his k % is at 26%.
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Baez hits and drops his K rate which so far he is doing. He will be back up. Maddon loves him and the Cubs need production out of LF.
Im also not sure why everyone think Addison Russell is a lock to stay up. He still has over a 40% K rate and a 4% walk rate which is what Baez was crucified for. His AVG is only at .250 because he has a ridiculous .410 BABIP that will not last long. This is where I talk about perception. Throw in 4 errors and it isnt like he taking the world by storm. I like Russell but I see no lock in him.
Im also not sure why everyone think Addison Russell is a lock to stay up. He still has over a 40% K rate and a 4% walk rate which is what Baez was crucified for. His AVG is only at .250 because he has a ridiculous .410 BABIP that will not last long. This is where I talk about perception. Throw in 4 errors and it isnt like he taking the world by storm. I like Russell but I see no lock in him.
TC in Mississippi
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My understanding was that it been mostly Mota at SS since Russell came up. My only point was that Baez would have higher value if you show he's a SS. What's interesting is that the Cubs don't feel that Alcantara can play SS but they played him there last night with all the trade rumors swirling. Just a poor attempt at reading the tea leaves.
beckdawg
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I did say that Russell could suck FWIW. Baez to LF though.... that just strikes me as too far fetched. Not to say that he can physically play the position but I don't know just seems like trying to cram a square into a circular hole. Plus, it's mid may. You have to figure at least a month and a half of production before you even talk about bringing Baez up outside of an injury. That makes it July. If the cubs are presumably still in it, I sort of feel like a short term option at LF makes more sense be it going after Cruz or Reddick. Gomez would potentially be another more costly option and you could push Fowler over though I'm not sure A) the brewers would trade in division and B) the cubs would want to pay that sort of price and C) IIRC he isn't much of a team guy but i could be wrong.
TL1961
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Certainly Alcantara's offensive woes can be due to the jump to the majors. But have they considered that just MAYBE the fact they move him all over and he struggled at the plate could be related.
CSF77
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I can see that but they want him to be that type and he was never considered a top prospect until he played himself into that spot. Again he was goods on hand and has made himself useful for the team. The way he is going to break in is to be versatile. In another situation he would most likely have a opportunity to be a starter but on this team he is #4 in MI.
CSF77
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They pushed Russell to 2B with a game or 2 in AAA. He is learning on the fly. I don't see that being a major issue with Baez in LF. But that said and done they are still keeping Baez at MI which keeps his trade value at a peak. In LF it will drop. That is just a natural thing.
In the Cubs position they do not have to do shit right now. They can let the market play out. I expect them to make a play for Cole and are hoping that the Phills will drop from 2 blue chip down to 1.
JP Hochbaum
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Sorry but gotta say it, I am seeing a few silly things here:
1) Castro is not getting traded
2) Russell only played a game or two at 2b before being called up so Baez not playing LF right now doesn't mean that he wouldn't when he gets the call up.
3) What matters is his trends (Baez I mean), while his K and BB rate are only slightly different from last year, his recent trend shows he may be finally getting it.
"@CubsDen: Light seems to be going on for Javy Baez lately, hitting .286/.415/.400 in last 10 w/12% BB rate/24% K rate --and taking more pitches to RF"
Yes it is a small sample size but like his tear in AAA last year he made adjustments and took off, and if he does this in AAA for 100 at bats there is no reason to keep him down there.
1) Castro is not getting traded
2) Russell only played a game or two at 2b before being called up so Baez not playing LF right now doesn't mean that he wouldn't when he gets the call up.
3) What matters is his trends (Baez I mean), while his K and BB rate are only slightly different from last year, his recent trend shows he may be finally getting it.
"@CubsDen: Light seems to be going on for Javy Baez lately, hitting .286/.415/.400 in last 10 w/12% BB rate/24% K rate --and taking more pitches to RF"
Yes it is a small sample size but like his tear in AAA last year he made adjustments and took off, and if he does this in AAA for 100 at bats there is no reason to keep him down there.
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My gathering is he has changed mechanics slightly. He has gotten rid of the extreme bat waggle. He is in more control of his swing but its not always consistent. He is not lifting his leg as much and his hands are lower. Its slight adjustments that people believe is the right way to go. I read an interesting article saying Baez could fulfill the Alcantara role. Maddon is still very high on him and he seems to be working extremely hard. He is still a -4.9 years for AAA. He is going to right and seeing the most pitches he has ever seen. He has walked 5 times and when he got plunked it was 3-1 pitch. You have to see a bigger sample size but it seems like if he continues to get more consistency then these changes are real and the Cubs would not hold him off the team even if its a crowded roster.
beckdawg
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Playing 2B is just the mirror of playing SS. Playing OF which Baez hasn't done in what 5 years has a whole host of issues especially if you're playing in wrigley where you could literally run into a brick wall. Aside from that, you have ball angles and other differences. Bryant talked about this and how he preferred CF when he subbed there for a few games because he didn't have to deal with the stands to either side of a corner OF. It just strikes me as people acting like this is a video game where you can put anyone in and there's no cost.
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CSF77
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His low point was 5/9/2015 when he fell to .205. Since that point: 14 AB, 6 hits, 3 BB, 4 SO. That is a 4 game span.
I hope you are right about him and this is not just another streak from a streaky player. We have seen that stuff form Sori for years. Can blow up for a week or 2 then swing at dirt balls for a month. I would look at his BB:SO ratio. That will give the best picture. This streak: 1.3:1 Over all 3.2:1. So that ratio I have a hard time believing he will sustain it. But that is what is driving this current 4 game streak.