Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[Parade_Rain]

That makes Schwarber tradeable for a young TOR IMHO. People can laugh at me with the suggestion, but with the exception of Rizzo and Bryant, I bet there isn't any player they (Cubs FO) are married to.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That makes Schwarber tradeable for a young TOR IMHO. People can laugh at me with the suggestion, but with the exception of Rizzo and Bryant, I bet there isn't any player they (Cubs FO) are married to.

Schwarber has been awful for a month but I think he's probably an equal hitter with more power than Rizzo when he matures. Let's see how he tackles 2016. Through a friend I know some people that cover the team and the sense I get is Schwarber and Russell are equally as untouchable, at least for now.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Schwarber has been awful for a month but I think he's probably an equal hitter with more power than Rizzo when he matures. Let's see how he tackles 2016. Through a friend I know some people that cover the team and the sense I get is Schwarber and Russell are equally as untouchable, at least for now.

That's possible. I certainly believe that with Russell but defensively it puts Schwarber in LF when they get a real catcher coming up through the system. Soler is my 2 hitter, not Schwarber.

 

[beckdawg]

That's possible. I certainly believe that with Russell but defensively it puts Schwarber in LF when they get a real catcher coming up through the system. Soler is my 2 hitter, not Schwarber.

I tend to prefer the more typical approach of speed at the top. With that being said, I think Schwarber makes far more sense than Soler for a number of reasons in the #2 hole. For one, it's really not even close in terms of OBP. Soler's not having the best year but even if you lump in last year his career OBP is .328. Schwarber is a .346 this year and you can make a pretty compelling argument he's probably going to wind up close to .400 pretty soon. On top of that, being left handed sets the line up nicely because you can go Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo and keep a L/R/L mix. Additionally, batting Soler 5th would maintain the R/L mix which makes it harder on the bullpen later in games.

I've said it before but I honestly wouldn't be opposed to seeing them start Schwarber in AAA next season and giving him another 2 months of catching. It wouldn't be a popular decision but if they honestly think there's any shot of him even being passable there it's well worth that investment especially if you're struggling to find a way to make Baez and Castro both fit. Maybe they are able to get proper value for Castro in the offseason and deal him. Maybe they can't and instead deal Baez. But if those two options don't happen, giving Schwarber until say June in AAA and playing Castro at 2B and Baez at 3B would allow Castro time to build up some of his trade value or conversely give them enough of a look at Baez to warrant a decision.

Outside of that, I just don't really see the point in trading Schwarber unless you're getting a Chris Sale type. I feel like we've been talking about trying to find a TOR type for so long that some are missing the narrative. They cubs today have two of the top 15 pitchers in fWAR in Arrieta and Lester. Realistically, how many teams have 3 of the top 25 pitchers in baseball? The cards are the best team in baseball and have by far the best starter ERA but only Lackey and Martinez fall in that(in terms of fWAR). Maybe you argue they'd have 3 with Wainwright but obviously he's not pitching. The mets are a similar story. They have deGrom and Harvey and Syndergaard may eventually get there but he's more top 50 right now. The cubs don't have to get David Price to win a WS. Hell, if they signed Shark they would have the #48 pitcher in fWAR(Hendricks), the #37(Shark), the #14(Lester) and the #3(Arrieta). That's a pretty amazing staff. Maybe some don't like Hendricks as much as the metrics do but adding a Shark or a Tyson Ross type would take the cubs from where they presently sit at #4 in starter fWAR(#5 in starter ERA) and just enhance it.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The only reason they go hard after a TOR like price is if they're reasonably certain they can't extend Arrieta and are hedging their bets. I'm getting the feeling Arrieta wants to be here, Boras be damned, and I think they'll get something done next offseason, maybe earlier. They make take a run at Price but they won't land him. I think it's going to be stupid money. I like Tyson Ross and there are going to be other guys available in trade and in FA. I would like two starting pitchers but one with the possibility of a deadline deal next year is fine too. Maybe it will turn out a deal like that won't be necessary.To the main topic of this thread I'd like to see if Pierce Johnson can't push Hendricks or Hammel for the rotation, maybe even Edwards although I think he'll spend 2016 in the pen before being stretched out.

 

[CSF77]

I was musing them resigning Fowler and using Almora in a trade for a starting pitcher. It kinda makes sense.

1. Fowler is about avg as it gets for CF but his bat plays as a needed lead off.
2. Almora is not a lead off. #2 hitter sure but lead off is a reach.

Now Schwarber hitting #2. Yes I see that but from a pitcher hitting #8 perspective. They can always add a 9 hitter with some wheels.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Next year you can possibly go with a mix of Castro, Baez, and Bryant in CF, and see if any of them click.

But going forward this season here are my ideal lineups:

Verse left handers:

Lineup Pos OBP CRC
1 Soler RF 0.368 0.758
2 Bryant 3b 0.331 0.829
3 Rizzo 1b 0.43 1.017
4 Fowler CF 0.392 0.969
5 Montero C 0.333 0.854
6 Castro 2b 0.316 0.776
7 Baez* ss 0.5 ****
8 Denorfia LF 0.304 0.696

Verse Right Handers:

Lineup Pos OBP CRC
1 Coghlan 2b 0.357 0.919
2 Schwarber LF 0.388 1.053
3 Rizzo 1b 0.383 0.998
4 Bryant 3b 0.382 0.981
5 Russell ss 0.331 0.836
6 Montero C 0.348 0.83
7 Soler RF 0.316 0.829
8 Fowler CF 0.336 0.807

And ride Castro's hot streak in both lineups until it eventually fizzles.

 

[Boobaby1]

I can honestly see the Cubs trading for a pitcher, and signing one this off-season. Hammel needs to be pushed to a number 4 and Hendricks 5 at the very least.

I believe you sign someone like a Zimmerman as a solid #2 or #3, and then trade for a near ready major leaguer.

IMO, that would buy some time for the A-Ball and AA pitchers, and give the Cubs the appropriate depth at the parent level because Hammel will be in his final year, and they can then start grooming Edwards or Johnson to take his place.

If the near ready major leaguer emerges, then all the better.

Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall when these meetings are going down at who they are targeting?

I know I would.

 

[Boobaby1]

That makes Schwarber tradeable for a young TOR IMHO. People can laugh at me with the suggestion, but with the exception of Rizzo and Bryant, I bet there isn't any player they (Cubs FO) are married to.

His left handed bat and OBP would be extremely hard to trade out, especially when they could buy a TOR or have the goods in the organization to get a Ross or maybe even a little better without compromising a thing at the parent level. A power hitter with good contact skills does not come around very often.

Taking it with a grain of salt from what Tim McCarver said about Schwarber, but when he talks about Kyle as having the quickest bat that he has seen since Billy Williams, that is quite the praise coming from a Cardinals announcer, and I am sure he has seen quite a few players in that span of time.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

His left handed bat and OBP would be extremely hard to trade out, especially when they could buy a TOR or have the goods in the organization to get a Ross or maybe even a little better without compromising a thing at the parent level. A power hitter with good contact skills does not come around very often.

Taking it with a grain of salt from what Tim McCarver said about Schwarber, but when he talks about Kyle as having the quickest bat that he has seen since Billy Williams, that is quite the praise coming from a Cardinals announcer, and I am sure he has seen quite a few players in that span of time.

Schwarber projects to be a very similar left handed bat to Rizzo with a touch more power. High OBP, plate discipline lefties who are difficult outs. The idea of one team having two of those guys is ridiculous. I think he's untouchable unless someone gets stupid and offers you a package of young pitching and a bat coming back that would be impossible to turn down and that ain't happening.

 

[TL1961]

Schwarber has been awful for a month but I think he's probably an equal hitter with more power than Rizzo when he matures. Let's see how he tackles 2016. Through a friend I know some people that cover the team and the sense I get is Schwarber and Russell are equally as untouchable, at least for now.

His average has plummeted, but he still gets on base and scores.

 

[Boobaby1]

His average has plummeted, but he still gets on base and scores.

I think we tend to forget that they are learning on the fly. Of course their are going to be peaks and valleys. It matters how they adjust from here.

They have been thrust into a playoff contending team, and at all different points in the season.

LOL. Yeah! No pressure to succeed there.

BTW! How bout LaStella? Up to .288 and a .351 OBP. :lol:

 

[TC in Mississippi]

His average has plummeted, but he still gets on base and scores.

Oh, I wasn't disparaging him. Frankly, along with Bryant, he's my favorite of these kids. All I was stating was the fact that he has not had good results at the plate lately. That said he has looked good at the plate for over a week now without a lot to show for it. His approach has been good and he's making contact again. This will be his third adjustment to the league as it adjusts to him. The fact that he recognizes that process and rolls with it impresses the shit out of me. The ups and downs are rookies do. That just is. How a player reacts tells the story. So no, I am not down on Schwarber. Kid's a stud.

 

[beckdawg]

Cease was named the #2 prospect in rookie league http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/...d-best-prospect-in-the-arizona-rookie-league/

That's the other aspect of the TOR talk. The cubs have HEAVILY invested in pitching in the past few drafts. Most don't care because they weren't 1st round picks but chances are someone out of that group is going to be better than they appear based on draft position. Still kinda crazy to think that they were "cheap" drafting Schwarber to get cease and others.

 

[beckdawg]

In reference to Schwarber, he's struggling in a similar way to Russell. Schwarber vs lefties is hitting .148/.220/.278 and vs righties he's hitting .276/.387/.590. Russell is hitting .143/.204/.286 vs lefties and .265/.328/.418 vs righties. Obviously that's something you want them to improve over the winter similar to Rizzo between 2013/14.

 

[SilenceS]

In reference to Schwarber, he's struggling in a similar way to Russell. Schwarber vs lefties is hitting .148/.220/.278 and vs righties he's hitting .276/.387/.590. Russell is hitting .143/.204/.286 vs lefties and .265/.328/.418 vs righties. Obviously that's something you want them to improve over the winter similar to Rizzo between 2013/14.

Russell is just all and all bad at the plate right now. He is back to K'ing at a tremendous rate for the past month or so. Schwarber needs to focus going oppo more. He has plenty of power to the opposite field and has the approach to go that way. He is turning on almost everything and the league has noticed. Young kids that will learn, but Joe isn't going to let them learn right now. He is going to put his best team out there to win no matter what the mixture.

 

[CSF77]

Russell is just all and all bad at the plate right now. He is back to K'ing at a tremendous rate for the past month or so. Schwarber needs to focus going oppo more. He has plenty of power to the opposite field and has the approach to go that way. He is turning on almost everything and the league has noticed. Young kids that will learn, but Joe isn't going to let them learn right now. He is going to put his best team out there to win no matter what the mixture.

We have been seeing Baez at SS more now for sure with Russell ending games there. You can't blame Joe for it due to production. Baez has made an adjustment vs Russell still needs to. Those 2 are going to be great though. Schwarber just needs to keep going up there and pushing up counts and waiting for his pitch. I wouldn't say just look to push to LF. You hit it to LF if they are staying on the outside corner. But in general if they are working inside then pull it. Out side push it. If they are are staying off the plate then take 1st base. The good pitchers will mix it up in an a AB vs working a zone. That will take time.

They should give Schwarber some mental days off with Coghlan in LF and Soler in RF. Or go with a platoon of Schwarber/Jackson and Soler/Coghlan the rest of the way. Let them play the advantage.

 

[beckdawg]

Russell is just all and all bad at the plate right now. He is back to K'ing at a tremendous rate for the past month or so. Schwarber needs to focus going oppo more. He has plenty of power to the opposite field and has the approach to go that way. He is turning on almost everything and the league has noticed. Young kids that will learn, but Joe isn't going to let them learn right now. He is going to put his best team out there to win no matter what the mixture.

Well you know me. I'm not a mechanics guy so I won't get into that debate. But if I had to guess Russell is probably trying to adjust back to the league and obviously that is likely to cause you to k more. With that being said, Russell's 2nd half numbers are still an improvement at .226/.296/.354 with a 8.2%/31.1% bb/k rate vs .248/.303/.426 with a 7.2%/26.6% rate. Yes sept is up to around 35% but it's only around 70 PAs which could easily just be him running into a cold streak or really good pitching. That's not to suggest that is by any means a "good" line for a major league hitter. IIRC MLB OBP average is right around .315 but when he's playing he is at least giving you fairly elite level defense. He's had a 13.3 UZR/150 over 746.0 innings at 2B and an even better 21.5 over 389.1 innings at SS. Assuming we take the lower end of that with the 13.3 that would make him the 5th best SS in the league behind Adeiny Hechavarria(17.8), Andrelton Simmons(16.8), Nick Ahmed(15.7), and J.J. Hardy (14.2).

And when you consider the rather glowing talk on Simmons who essentially thru age 25 has been a .254/.302/.360 hitter, it does add some perspective on Russell at 21 who's hitting .236/.299/.387. If anything, the fact he's been so good defensively only improves my opinion on him because I flat out didn't expect him to hit as a 21 year old skipping AAA mostly and having relatively few(IIRC under 500) PAs above A ball. The fact he's even been up all years suggest to me one of two things. Either the cubs front office felt they literally had no other choice or they value that defense pretty highly. I'd tend to believe given Theo's past trading for Cabrera and stating defense as the reason it's the latter.

Either way, I personally don't see that big of a difference between him and the alternatives. Obviously Castro is on fire now but has been playing 2B anyways. And as for Baez, he's been marginally better than Russell's 2nd half numbers but he's also got a likely unsustainable .405 BABIP. If that comes down to say a more reasonable .350 you're looking more at a .250/.280 hitter. Additionally, while not the "best" sample size, through 262.2 innings at 2B and 291.0 at SS Baez is a -23.6 and -7.4 UZR/150 respectively. That's not to say Baez shouldn't play but as I've long said I feel like he's just a better play at 3B and I feel like his defense has shown there. So, even if I'm likely not the most objective person with regard to Baez it's pretty hard for me to see the logic that you're better off with him over Russell. You're essentially trading a marginally better hitter thus far for a pretty massive downgrade defensively. Now if you want to start Baez over Russell vs lefties I can totally see that logic because Russell's been pretty horrid there and while only having 13 PAs this season, Baez is hitting .417/.462/.583. But overall, I still think Russell provides more down the stretch.

 

[TL1961]

That makes Schwarber tradeable for a young TOR IMHO. People can laugh at me with the suggestion, but with the exception of Rizzo and Bryant, I bet there isn't any player they (Cubs FO) are married to.

Russell.

They aren't trading him.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Russell.

They aren't trading him.

The return would certainly need to be a huge haul, if they considered it, but it's unlikely. I liked the kid the minute I saw his swing.