Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[TC in Mississippi]

I think the Cubs will be very reluctant to part with any of the guys in MLB including Baez. If it's necessary to get what they need I think they could possibly trade anyone but Rizzo and Bryant, would almost certainly not trade Schwarber or Russell and most likely would need an awful lot to trade Soler or Baez. Here's an interesting change to the status quo coming up; 2015 draft picks will now be eligible for trade as of the day after the World Series. The Cubs are still loaded in the minor leagues and adding Happ, deWees and others from this year's draft to that pool gives them a lot of ammo for trades without parting with guys they would prefer not to. This might be the first rule change to actually work in the Cubs' favor by making a strong asset pool available for trade even stronger.

 

[Parade_Rain]

They were reluctant to part ways with Castro, probably not because they didn't get offers, but moreso because they know what they want and they will be patient for the right returns. That would go for anyone. I don't think they are going to flip anyone just to change a roster spot at this point. It isn't like the days of trading away Colvin and LeMahieu for Stewart and Weathers

 

[brett05]

They were reluctant to part ways with Castro, probably not because they didn't get offers, but moreso because they know what they want and they will be patient for the right returns. That would go for anyone. I don't think they are going to flip anyone just to change a roster spot at this point. It isn't like the days of trading away Colvin and LeMahieu for Stewart and Weathers

What happens though when the patience leads to even less return as it has with Castro?

 

[CSF77]

The only way they trade out anything is if they can get a top of the rotation with control. That would be due to payroll concerns.

If they had a choice they would keep it In house first. F/A 2nd. Trade 3rd choice.

I believe they need a #3 starter. That doesn't mean spending on Price. If they are willing to give up a pick then Zimmerman should be choice 1. Rest fall in line behind him. He is the only non ace that stands at the same level as Lester does.

Now on the trade front. I wouldn't pay out any players that I have projected as future starters. Like Happ, Conteres or Torres. But the rest would be on the market.

That means Ceace also. TOR potential but very far away.

As far as major league players: I'd hold the chips unless a team just makes a stupid offer. Like Sale for Castro, Soler and 2 minor league arms. That point you just say okay and start to drool.

 

[Parade_Rain]

What happens though when the patience leads to even less return as it has with Castro?

Castro is going to get less return? I think what he's been doing after the AS Break is enough to add back to his value. BA is now at .264. The past 28 days he is hitting at a .441 clip with a 1.198 OPS. Positive dWAR for the year, too. (.3)

 

[CSF77]

What happens though when the patience leads to even less return as it has with Castro?

Castro has always been overrated due to the lack of talent at SS. Now that the league has caught up his value dropped.

He has never been consistent but his talent was just that good that it over came is short comings.

Even right now his talent is showing after a crappy start. He has a pretty good chance to put hisBA back in the .270 range.

My opinion is hold him until Torres is ready. Move Baez to 3B where his D is the strongest. Then move Bryant to RF. That frees up Soler for trade. He is another that is getting hot and is looking like a great trade chip.

 

[brett05]

Castro is going to get less return? I think what he's been doing after the AS Break is enough to add back to his value. BA is now at .264. The past 28 days he is hitting at a .441 clip with a 1.198 OPS. Positive dWAR for the year, too. (.3)

Castro's trade high was three years ago. Even with his improvement it's still no where near that high.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Castro's trade high was three years ago. Even with his improvement it's still no where near that high.

If they had a pill for head in butt syndrome would you take it?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They were reluctant to part ways with Castro, probably not because they didn't get offers, but moreso because they know what they want and they will be patient for the right returns. That would go for anyone. I don't think they are going to flip anyone just to change a roster spot at this point. It isn't like the days of trading away Colvin and LeMahieu for Stewart and Weathers

Everything I heard was that didn't want to send money back and that's what teams were asking for. If that continues in the winter there is no way they trade him. He's showing value at 2B and even if they trade no one on the MLB roster Maddon will find plenty of playing time for everyone. If they can trade him and his contract my guess is they probably will if he can lead a package for a cost controlled pitcher. If that deal isn't there they could look at guys like Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo or even Jordan Zimmermann who's not going to make it to the $200 million club like first though. I think only three of those deals will be made and it's going to be Price, Cueto and Greinke. Of course they could always trade prospects for a pitcher too. Unlike CSF77 I don't think Gleybar Torres will ever play an inning for the Cubs. If he stays hot in 2016 for South Bend, unless he's traded first of course, I think he would be a prime candidate to move at the deadline next year for even more pitching. Awfully tough to project an 18 year old and if his value is crazy the smart bet is to move him.

What all this is about though is options. This is why you build a system like this. You can trade prospects or develop them, trade MLB players or keep them and with flexibility like that you don't have to target one guy in trade you can target 2 or 3 or even 4 and pick the deal you like best. Multiple options always allow you to pay what you want and not be forced into overpay situations.

 

[CSF77]

I see it as they keep Castro for 2-3 years at 2B. His natural replacement would be Torries. The smart move at that point is giving Fowler a 3 year deal and letting Happ develop as a CF/lead off over that span. That puts the 1/2 of Happ/Torres in 2-3 years. If they develop faster then that opens Castro and Fowler for trade.

Now that opens up Almora and Soler for trades along with some of their young pitching to add in.

I see that as the best solution looking ahead.

 

[fatbeard]

I see it as they keep Castro for 2-3 years at 2B. His natural replacement would be Torries. The smart move at that point is giving Fowler a 3 year deal and letting Happ develop as a CF/lead off over that span. That puts the 1/2 of Happ/Torres in 2-3 years. If they develop faster then that opens Castro and Fowler for trade.

Now that opens up Almora and Soler for trades along with some of their young pitching to add in.

I see that as the best solution looking ahead.

Allow me to summarize, if I may: Your best solution (to a problem that doesn't exist) is to trade a young, cost-controlled potential 30HR All-Star in Soler so that the Cubs can retain the services of a career 3.0 WAR Castro who's already hit his ceiling so that they can then replace him with a completely unproven 18-year old 2-3 years from now? And this makes more sense to you than simply trading Castro, retaining Soler, keeping Bryant at 3B, putting Baez at 2B and allowing Torres to develop at his own pace and force his way into the lineup?

 

[CSF77]

Allow me to summarize, if I may: Your best solution (to a problem that doesn't exist) is to trade a young, cost-controlled potential 30HR All-Star in Soler so that the Cubs can retain the services of a career 3.0 WAR Castro who's already hit his ceiling so that they can then replace him with a completely unproven 18-year old 2-3 years from now? And this makes more sense to you than simply trading Castro, retaining Soler, keeping Bryant at 3B, putting Baez at 2B and allowing Torres to develop at his own pace and force his way into the lineup?

2 points:
1: Soler has better trade value. To get quality you have to spend quality to get it. No one pays nickles on the dollar. So to make it clear. I'm saying trade Soler because he can bring in a better return than Castro.

2. This is about putting the best D out there. Soler is lacking at D. His uzr150 is around -15. Bryant was bringing positive uzr150. Baez is bringing positive uzer150 at 3B.

And the whole what happens in the future. Well I'm not betting against it. I heard all the nay sayers bang that gong already and there have been plenty of those "lottery tickets' that are paying off.

I've learned not to doubt shit when it comes to Theo and his boys getting talent into the system and it paying off.

 

[fatbeard]

2 points:
1: Soler has better trade value. To get quality you have to spend quality to get it. No one pays nickles on the dollar. So to make it clear. I'm saying trade Soler because he can bring in a better return than Castro.

2. This is about putting the best D out there. Soler is lacking at D. His uzr150 is around -15. Bryant was bringing positive uzr150. Baez is bringing positive uzer150 at 3B.

And the whole what happens in the future. Well I'm not betting against it. I heard all the nay sayers bang that gong already and there have been plenty of those "lottery tickets' that are paying off.

I've learned not to doubt shit when it comes to Theo and his boys getting talent into the system and it paying off.

Theo has done a tremendous job, but even he still has his Edwin Jacksons.

 

[TL1961]

The only way they trade out anything is if they can get a top of the rotation with control. That would be due to payroll concerns.

If they had a choice they would keep it In house first. F/A 2nd. Trade 3rd choice.

I believe they need a #3 starter. That doesn't mean spending on Price. If they are willing to give up a pick then Zimmerman should be choice 1. Rest fall in line behind him. He is the only non ace that stands at the same level as Lester does.

Now on the trade front. I wouldn't pay out any players that I have projected as future starters. Like Happ, Conteres or Torres. But the rest would be on the market.

That means Ceace also. TOR potential but very far away.

As far as major league players: I'd hold the chips unless a team just makes a stupid offer. Like Sale for Castro, Soler and 2 minor league arms. That point you just say okay and start to drool.

TOR is not the only target. A top closer is another possibility.

Trade for closer, sign starter. Look out!

 

[TL1961]

2 points:
1: Soler has better trade value. To get quality you have to spend quality to get it. No one pays nickles on the dollar. So to make it clear. I'm saying trade Soler because he can bring in a better return than Castro.

2. This is about putting the best D out there. Soler is lacking at D. His uzr150 is around -15. Bryant was bringing positive uzr150. Baez is bringing positive uzer150 at 3B.

And the whole what happens in the future. Well I'm not betting against it. I heard all the nay sayers bang that gong already and there have been plenty of those "lottery tickets' that are paying off.

I've learned not to doubt shit when it comes to Theo and his boys getting talent into the system and it paying off.

I think you need to give up on the idea of saving a player with low WAR in a crowded IF full of rookies with star potential, and trading an OF with star potential. Not going to happen.

 

[CSF77]

Theo has done a tremendous job, but even he still has his Edwin Jacksons.

He even said he has learned from it. The reality is he spend on Hammel and he gave a 1/2 season. Lester has put us a meh year in general and he made bank this year for it.

His best deals have been via the draft and on buy lows.

I feel that the Cubs are better off with Baez vs Soler. Just saying. Sure Soler might end up with 30 HR potential but so might Baez. But we know that Baez has superior D at 3B and Soler has been replaced late inning by Jackson and his playing time has been cut by Coghlan.

I'm not saying anything out of the norm here.

I'm not a huge fan that Theo went out an pushed out that he will Q-offer Fowler. That tells me that Fowler is not a Cub in 2016. That will hurt more than anything. They have no potential lead off out side of him. Jackson has way too much swing and miss going on to be a realistic lead off option.

So that is a bigger deal right now.

 

[beckdawg]

Preston Morrison is a name to keep an eye on I think. He might be the 2015 draft's version of the 2014 Ryan Williams. Both were college seniors when drafted. Morrison put up a 0.81/1.32 ERA/FIP with a stellar 12.09 k/9 and 1.21 bb/9 in A- Eugene. Had a bit of trouble finding scouting info on him. The little info I could gather basically told me he has a mid-upper 80's fastball with a decent curve and change. Ryan Williams in A- last year put up 9.49 k/9 and a 1.09 bb/9 with a 1.46/3.13 ERA/FIP. Neither guy is going to set the world on fire but finding potential back of the rotation depth out of what amounts to cheap picks used to free money up to sign more talent like Hudson/Cease is a pretty good deal.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/baseball-america-reveals-cubs-top-10-prospects-following-2015-season

On Friday, Baseball America ranked that talent, releasing an updated Top 10 prospects list following the 2015 season:

1. Gleyber Torres - SS
2. Willson Contreras - C
3. Ian Happ - OF
4. Duane Underwood - RHP
5. Dylan Cease - RHP
6. Albert Almora - OF
7. Billy McKinney - OF
8. Oscar de la Cruz - RHP
9. Eloy Jimenez - OF
10. Jeimer Candelario - 3B

 

[beckdawg]

MLB.com's prospect stuff is starting to come out

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/?list=rhp

That's the only thing up for 2016 today other than the top 50 draft prospects. Rest comes out the following days

Tue., Jan. 19 - Top 10 Right-Handed Pitchers
Wed., Jan. 20 - Top 10 Left-Handed Pitchers
Thu., Jan. 21 - Top 10 Catchers
Fri., Jan. 22 - Top 10 First Basemen
Mon., Jan. 25 - Top 10 Second Basemen
Tue., Jan. 26 - Top 10 Third Basemen
Wed., Jan. 27 - Top 10 Shortstops
Thu., Jan. 28 - Top 10 Outfielders
Fri., Jan. 29 - Top 100 Prospects

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Cubs ink Kawasaki to Minors pact with invite

The Cubs have signed colorful infielder Munenori Kawasaki to a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

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