Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

I have been drinking and I can show you stats. The Cubs legit have promoted 5 starters in the past year. Add in there age and it rare. Byron Buxton is back in the minors and he was declared a cant miss. Baez and Soler may not completely start for this team, but they would start for 85% of the league. That does not happen often. When a 26 year old Anthony Rizzo is your grizzled vet, its saying something.

I mean I get what you were going for. I'm just saying it's not like the cubs haven't had road bumps. Also, how often do you have 5 top 25 prospects which I believe Bryant, Schwarber, Soler, Baez and Russell all were? Typically when you're talking about a top 25 non-pitching prospect they are pretty safe. Even if they don't reach their potential they generally turn out to be ok players.

Ultimately I just don't really think what the cubs have done is really luck based. They largely drafted a lot of college players who are near MLB ready bats. To me, this is what you would expect to happen. Now if we start seeing some of the later round picks break out I'd tend to agree they were a bit lucky but as I said this is why you draft college players and more specifically college bats.

But as I said before, outside of Happ I tend to agree with the point you were trying to make. Most of the remaining bats in the system aren't really "sure things." Happ I'd argue is pretty safe but he's pretty dependent on playing 2B to me or else he's less useful to the cubs.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Call me crazy, but I think the Cubs have to be thinking of bringing up Almora. He is on the same development/age path as Addison Russel, only two months apart. And having his glove in LF, playing some CF, would make us a defensive outfield that rivals Pittsburghs.
As much as I would love to see Soler everyday, I am thinking he is going to become the odd man out, even though I think his potential is still very high.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Pump the brakes on these prospects. The Cubs so far have hit the lottery. The amount of prospects they have brought up and succeeded so far is unreal. It crushes the actual numbers of top prospects that make it. Look at the Twins, they are going through it right now. No need to rush. Let them develop.

Happ signed out of a 4 year as a Jr, IIRC. Players like that need to move up to AA more quickly than a player signed straight out of HS.

 

[DanTown]

Why would you promote Happ and lose his cheap service time when he's a bench player? When the Cubs promoted young players early, it was to replace bad players and give them reps most of the days.

- Bryant replaced Olt/Herrerra at 3B
- Russell replaced Alcantra/Herrera at 2B then eventually Castro at SS
- Schwarber came up to replace a scuttling Coghlan and Denorfia
- Soler came up to replace Ruggiano/Sweeney
- Baez came up to replace Alcantra

The Cubs aren't calling up Happ (or any of their top prospects) to be backups and waste their service time that way. There is simply no reason to promote Happ to the 25 man roster until you're giving him a lot of PA. If he waits until he's 25 (2019), you're better off as a team having his prime years be arbitration.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Why would you promote Happ and lose his cheap service time when he's a bench player? When the Cubs promoted young players early, it was to replace bad players and give them reps most of the days.

- Bryant replaced Olt/Herrerra at 3B
- Russell replaced Alcantra/Herrera at 2B then eventually Castro at SS
- Schwarber came up to replace a scuttling Coghlan and Denorfia
- Soler came up to replace Ruggiano/Sweeney
- Baez came up to replace Alcantra

The Cubs aren't calling up Happ (or any of their top prospects) to be backups and waste their service time that way. There is simply no reason to promote Happ to the 25 man roster until you're giving him a lot of PA. If he waits until he's 25 (2019), you're better off as a team having his prime years be arbitration.

Where in the discussion has anyone suggested putting Happ on the 25 man? Yikes. Beat the hell out of that strawman, DanTown. You win.

 

[beckdawg]

Call me crazy, but I think the Cubs have to be thinking of bringing up Almora. He is on the same development/age path as Addison Russel, only two months apart. And having his glove in LF, playing some CF, would make us a defensive outfield that rivals Pittsburghs.
As much as I would love to see Soler everyday, I am thinking he is going to become the odd man out, even though I think his potential is still very high.

Russell was called up really early. It was surprising to most he was called up so early.

 

[beckdawg]

Happ signed out of a 4 year as a Jr, IIRC. Players like that need to move up to AA more quickly than a player signed straight out of HS.

Think if they hold him back it's more to work on his defense rather than hitting. I'm not sure they can pull the same fast promotion they did with Schwarber with a guy they want to play 2B. And the thing to consider is the players you have at the various levels above him. They have Chesny Young in AA(hitting .382/.506/.529 after hitting .321 .394/.388/.368 in A+ last year). AAA isn't as strong depending on how you feel about Alcantara but with him and Kawasaki you are more having people ready for the majors. So, while in theory you could promote Young and then promote Happ to AA, you'd be doing so over these other guys.

 

[DanTown]

Where in the discussion has anyone suggested putting Happ on the 25 man? Yikes. Beat the hell out of that strawman, DanTown. You win.

I get it but he has switched positions from the OF to 2B so his curve may not be quite as fast. Still I would expect him in MLB by 2017 one way or another. It's pretty unlikely he'll be at 2B for the Cubs.

Maybe that quote? The discussion is how quickly will Happ be in the majors.

My over reaching point with Happ has been there isn't a place to play him. The Cubs have never called up a prospect (especially a top one) to be a bench guy; they've all been regulars. What regular is Happ going to replace in any of the next three years?

The Cubs will call up Happ when two things happen
1. They feel he can handle a MLB position + hit enough
2. The Cubs will have a place for him to play regularly

THAT'S why I think Happ will be "delayed", not so much his own skill level but there simply isn't a place to really play him.

 

[SilenceS]

Happ signed out of a 4 year as a Jr, IIRC. Players like that need to move up to AA more quickly than a player signed straight out of HS.

If the development warrants it, Mark Appel was suppose to be in the majors within a half of season of the minors. Didn't happen. They are watching his development. They aren't holding him down for funsies. They will move him when they feel the timing is right.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Maybe that quote?

The end of 2017? What about being part of a trade? A slow play isn't almost MLB ready like Russell was. It's time to get him up to AA.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Maybe that quote?

I stand by that by the way. I think Happ will see at least a cup of coffee in MLB in 2017. It most likely won't be with the Cubs unless it's to showcase him. He'll be 22 in August if the top hitter in the 2015 draft is not at least sniffing the bigs by 23 I think you would consider that a problem. Of course I also said in that quote that his path the MLB wouldn't be as fast as the two other college prospects we've seen in Bryant and Schwarber.

 

[SilenceS]

Call me crazy, but I think the Cubs have to be thinking of bringing up Almora. He is on the same development/age path as Addison Russel, only two months apart. And having his glove in LF, playing some CF, would make us a defensive outfield that rivals Pittsburghs.
As much as I would love to see Soler everyday, I am thinking he is going to become the odd man out, even though I think his potential is still very high.

Then, the Cubs would throw Bryant in LF and have Baez play third. They could even put Zobrist or Baez in left not to mention Szczur. The team is too deep in OF depth to bring him up. Almora does not steal bases and would not have a very strong stick in the majors. It would be a wasted roster spot at this point.

 

[DanTown]

Think if they hold him back it's more to work on his defense rather than hitting. I'm not sure they can pull the same fast promotion they did with Schwarber with a guy they want to play 2B. And the thing to consider is the players you have at the various levels above him. They have Chesny Young in AA(hitting .382/.506/.529 after hitting .321 .394/.388/.368 in A+ last year). AAA isn't as strong depending on how you feel about Alcantara but with him and Kawasaki you are more having people ready for the majors. So, while in theory you could promote Young and then promote Happ to AA, you'd be doing so over these other guys.

Maybe they promote Happ/Young or move Young to SS in AA but the question still remains: why rush anything with Happ or any other prospect? Everyone who was rushed through the system filled a need on the 25 man roster. That hole simply doesn't exist with this 25 man roster like previous one's did.

It would take major injury and/or age decline in Zobrist's game for me to think the Cubs would make him a utility player (which is what a Happ promotion signals). Seeing as you have to believe Zobrist has at least this year + next year at a solid level, there just isn't the need to rush Happ and that's a good thing. If Happ continues to mash lower level pitching levels, it probably subconsciously builds his trade value so maybe he's a more valuable trade asset than he'd be otherwise.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If the development warrants it, Mark Appel was suppose to be in the majors within a half of season of the minors. Didn't happen. They are watching his development. They aren't holding him down for funsies. They will move him when they feel the timing is right.

Of course development is they key to the whole thing. Appel has struggled and isn't ready. Carson Fulmer could be taking a similar path for the White Sox after being expected up this year. Players develop each according to their own gifts. As a general rule though college hitters in the first round are expected to develop more quickly than some.

 

[DanTown]

I stand by that by the way. I think Happ will see at least a cup of coffee in MLB in 2017. It most likely won't be with the Cubs unless it's to showcase him. He'll be 22 in August if the top hitter in the 2015 draft is not at least sniffing the bigs by 23 I think you would consider that a problem. Of course I also said in that quote that his path the MLB wouldn't be as fast as the two other college prospects we've seen in Bryant and Schwarber.

I don't see this a problem with Happ's talent or ability, I see it as a question of where he plays and what's the value. Why would you waste his service time to be a bench player? The only two ways I see him in the majors by then (or even 2018) is two scenarios: Zobrist declines or Almora never hits and the Cubs put Happ in CF. Seeing as Almora is most likely going to be asked to be the 9 hitter (and the leadoff guy is probably 2B Zobrist), I don't see the clear path to Happ getting PT and the Cubs have never called up a prospect to not play.

Keeping a guy in AAA because of an abundance of MLB talent isn't an issue with the player; it's maximizing his value to you.

 

[SilenceS]

Of course development is they key to the whole thing. Appel has struggled and isn't ready. Carson Fulmer could be taking a similar path for the White Sox after being expected up this year. Players develop each according to their own gifts. As a general rule though college hitters in the first round are expected to develop more quickly than some.

College is always supposed to be safer, but it doesn't always turn out like that.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/the_mlb_draft_c.php

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

Bottom one doesn't decipher college and hs. Just shows the rates on failure and such. I feel like people expect every top prospect to make it and that is very much not the case.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't see this a problem with Happ's talent or ability, I see it as a question of where he plays and what's the value. Why would you waste his service time to be a bench player? The only two ways I see him in the majors by then (or even 2018) is two scenarios: Zobrist declines or Almora never hits and the Cubs put Happ in CF. Seeing as Almora is most likely going to be asked to be the 9 hitter (and the leadoff guy is probably 2B Zobrist), I don't see the clear path to Happ getting PT and the Cubs have never called up a prospect to not play.

Keeping a guy in AAA because of an abundance of MLB talent isn't an issue with the player; it's maximizing his value to you.

I guess the main difference here is that I don't ever expect him to play for the Cubs and his value in trade will increase with development and promotions in the minors. Beyond that I don't disagree with you at all. If he's the 2B guy of the future your timeline could be totally correct.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

College is always supposed to be safer, but it doesn't always turn out like that.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/the_mlb_draft_c.php

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

Bottom one doesn't decipher college and hs. Just shows the rates on failure and such. I feel like people expect every top prospect to make it and that is very much not the case.

I certainly don't. Byron Buxton could be the latest example of a "can't miss" bottoming out. I don't think he's done yet but the arrow is not pointing up. Sometimes that's development or calling a guy up to soon, sometimes it's just the way it works out. All I was saying was that there are greater expectations on college hitters in the first round. Doesn't mean they will always meet them.

 

[beckdawg]

I think this is a really difficult subject to discuss. The problem is there are 30 teams with 30 different drafting philosophies. If I had to characterize the drafts under Theo and company I would characterize them as "safe." Obviously no prospect is every truly a no doubter. However, when you look at the way the cubs have drafted, they very rarely are taking someone with high potential and low floor. By in large they've drafted college bats in the first round. Almora wasn't that but he also if nothing else is a potential gold glove type defender in CF. That's a nice safety net. They largely have drafted college pitchers with middling stuff but who've performed well in college.

Put another way, I think the cubs are trying to find useful players and not necessarily super stars. Other teams will draft tools-y guys hope they work out. And often times when they do those players become super stars. But can we honestly suggest the cubs have really gone out on a limb for anyone? Cease is the one player I can think of but I'm not even sure how far out on a limb that was considering it was a 4th round pick albeit over slot. He had the talent level of a first round player it was just an injury risk question.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Just saw this on Cubs Den; in his last 50 games, 221 PA, between AA and AAA Almora has slashed .328/.399/.474 with a 10% walk rate and a 10% K rate. That's impressive and quickly moving beyond SSS. This kid has figured some things out.