Sure he's four years away, Calendario is at best two years away as well. Also, the Braves are in no rush to try and win in the the next two+ years.
Candelario hit MLB pitching.... this spring. I sincerely doubt he's 2 years away and from my understanding it's more a formality that he's in AA rather than him needing much more time there. He hit .291/.379/.462 there over 182 PAs last year then hit .329/.371/.610 over 89 AFL(double-A ish level), hit extremely well this spring and despite having a poor batting average, he's still got a .318 OBP and a 92 wRC+ thus far. Think he's a lot closer than you're making out.
The problem with that deal is they simply don't get back an arm that gives them hope for a better pitcher than Teheran.
Have you seen Atlanta's farm system? Sean Newcomb #18 overall prospect, Aaron Blair #52 overall prospect, Kolby Allard #85 overall prospect, Touki Toussaint who was at some point last year a top 100 prospect and likely is 101-150ish now, Tyrell Jenkins the second big piece they got for Heyward, Manny Banuelos who was at one point a big name in the Yankee's system, Max Fried who was a former #7 overall draft pick and part of the Upton deal to SD, Lucas Sims who was a 1st round pick and I believe last year was in top 100 lists, Mike Soroka #28 pick last year, and Chris Ellis the second piece in the Simmons to LAA deal are all part of their top 15 prospects. 10 of their top 15 prospects are pitchers. They don't need top end pitching. What they need is players who can actually hit the ball. The reason I thought about Williams wasn't that he was necessarily an amazing pitcher. He's clearly BOR type. However, you still have to send someone out there and many of these names may not be MLB ready by July. Williams by all accounts will.
So you're telling me that the Braves don't have money to acquire top end talent so when they have a cost controlled pitcher who is going to be paid well under market, they should trade him for low ceiling prospects? How does that make any sense to the organization?
This last bit I'm just going to encapsulate the rest you said and shrink down to this for sake of reading. Firstly, about Teheran. For the sake of argument, let's say he's a 3.50 ERA guy. That's roughly what he's been for his career. That's basically a #3 starter. Lackey signed for $16 mil/season which means if you want to make Teheran equivalent value he'd basically be $26.7 mil cheaper over the next 4 years assuming you pick up his option. I'm not going to count this year as any move will be in july and by that point you're saving a couple of mil tops. So for the sake of argument let's say he's $30 mil cheaper than an equivalent FA over the next 4.5 years.
Needless to say he's a decent value on that contract but reports were last year that the present front office isn't as high on him as the previous regime. That's why the trade talk began in the first place because why else would any team trade a 25 year old starter? As for Teheran's value that's obviously hard to say. But I'd present to you the case of Matt Garza. I'd argue that up until the point he was traded Matt Garza had accomplished more and was more of a good #2. Garza brought back an out of no where pitcher who might not stay a starter but who had great stuff(Edwards), a broken former top 50 prospect(Olt) and two guys who graded out similar to what Williams does now(Ramirez and Grimm). Now that's not an entirely fair comparison because Garza was a FA to be and Teheran does have more control. That's also to say nothing of the deal that originally brought Garza to the cubs. Hak-Ju Lee, Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer wasn't an amazing haul. Lee was thought at the time to be the best player. Archer was in the top 150ish range IIRC and Chirinos, Flud and Guyer were organizational guys. To throw out another similar-ish trade, the A's got A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris and Brad Peacock for Gio Gonzo. I believe Cole and Norris were like top 75-150ish prospects and Milone and Peacock were largely fillers. And I believe Gio had 2 years of team control left. But is that deal that far off what I'm suggesting in Williams, Candelario and McKinney?
Maybe the pieces just aren't there for a trade. And if so that's fairr but if they are intent on dealing him I'm not really seeing that many teams that are going to go crazy over a #3 starter with potential to be more on a good contract. The only teams that stand out to me as teams who will be buyers for that level of pitching are Boston and the Cubs. Jays I'm not sure are going to be in it and even if they are do they have the players? O's have a lot of young pitching at or near the majors already as well as a top 5 runs against in AL. Ditto for white sox, Indians, and M's. Rangers maybe but they seem to have the pitching you'd want already. Dodgers have Urias and De Leon they can call up. SF spent big this offseason on pitching. Does pit ever make substantial deals at the deadline? The Mets and nats already have really strong staffs.
Let's do it this way. Of the top 100 prospects, 61 of the 100 are position players and 21 are 2B/SS. Given where the Braves are situated think it's pretty likely they aren't after that. I already outlined their pitching depth so all things being equal I think it's also strongly unlikely the meat of any trade would be a pitcher unless that pitcher was "special(i.e. top 10)." Of the 40 remaining players 4 are listed 1B only. With Freeman there on big money for long time can't see why that's a direction they'd go unless they also deal him but that gets super complicated. To be a better deal than what I'm suggesting you'd basically have to be another team with 2 top 100 players since Candlario is likely top 125 or 150 which is close enough talent wise to bottom top 100 guys. These teams have 2 players who aren't 1B, SS or pitchers
Philly: 60 NICK WILLIAMS OF, 80 CORNELIUS RANDOLPH OF, 92 JORGE ALFARO C, 95 ROMAN QUINN OF
Milwalkee: 29 BRETT PHILLIPS OF, 79 TRENT CLARK OF
Boston: 14 RAFAEL DEVERS 3B, 22 ANDREW BENINTENDI OF
Texas: 7 JOEY GALLO 3B/OF, 13 LEWIS BRINSON OF, 15 NOMAR MAZARA OF
Colorado: 42 DAVID DAHL OF, 44 RYAN MCMAHON 3B
Pittsburgh: 17 AUSTIN MEADOWS OF, 94 REESE MCGUIRE C
Houston: 70 KYLE TUCKER OF, 71 DAZ CAMERON OF
Cleveland: 23 BRADLEY ZIMMER OF, 24 CLINT FRAZIER OF
Chicago: 46 WILLSON CONTRERAS C, 82 ALBERT ALMORA OF, 84 BILLY MCKINNEY OF
Yankees: 28 AARON JUDGE OF, 55 GARY SANCHEZ C
Cincy: 30 JESSE WINKER OF, 67 JOSE PERAZA 2B/OF
San Diego: 41 MANNY MARGOT OF, 88 HUNTER RENFROE OF
Dodgers: 97 CODY BELLINGER 1B/OF 98 ALEX VERDUGO OF
So my question to you would be which of those teams realistically would offer more than the cubs? Philly is in division which generally is a no-no. Houston, Yankees, Milwalkee, San Diego and Cincy are in the 10 worst teams in baseball. Colorado is just outside as the 11th worst. So that leaves the list of competing teams as Boston, Texas, Pitt, Cleveland, Chicago, and the Dodgers. Are Cleveland, Boston or Texas going to give up multiple top 25 players for him? That's dubious. If pit ever made any moves I might peg them as a front runner but they are never in on big names. If Houston didn't start off so god awful terrible they would also seem intriguing and perhaps they could get involved with an eye toward 2017.
That's why I just don't see Teheran bringing back a treasure trove of guys. So while I can certainly see why in a vacuum Williams McKinney and Candelario doesn't seem like enough, realistically who's throwing down more than that and not only more but more in areas the Braves want? Would you give up two top 25 players for him?
