Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[TC in Mississippi]

Is he even on the 40-man roster?

No, they had really started to give up on him to be honest but I agree that he might get a shot this year.

 

[beckdawg]

No, they had really started to give up on him to be honest but I agree that he might get a shot this year.

Yeah he was really bad pre-2014. I think it was round about then when he was removed from the 40 man.

 

[beckdawg]

Speaking of pitching coming around.... Trevor Clifton looks like the light has come on. 10.75 k/9 3.93 bb/9 with 2.62/3.00 ERA/FIP at 21 and A+ over 34 innings.

 

[DanTown]

Eloy Jimenez (19 y/o in South Bend)

.325/.354/.506

5 HR / 22 RBI (albeit 42 K in 149 BB)

Last 10 games
16 - 43 with 4 HR

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So realistically do we have any TOR pitchers that could be here by 2018?

I ask because there is good chance we need to replace Arrieta by then. Right now we have Lester, Hendricks, FA, FA, FA, and possibly Hammel.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So realistically do we have any TOR pitchers that could be here by 2018?

I ask because there is good chance we need to replace Arrieta by then. Right now we have Lester, Hendricks, FA, FA, FA, and possibly Hammel.

Not TOR by any stretch. Ryan Williams is similar to Hendricks in that he doesn't throw hard but knows how to pitch but requires pinpoint command. Some people are still holding out hope for Duane Underwood but I'm not sure I'm one of them. Either way his ceiling his probably a #2. Dylan Cease might be the best hope for a TOR guy in the system and he's 2019 at the earliest. The Cubs are going to have to make a trade for a young pitcher in the next 12 months.

 

[SilenceS]

Underwood shows three plus pitches. Consistency is the only problem. We will see what happens.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So BlackBurn and Clifton aren't considered TOR's?

I heard mention from a friend that it may be a good idea to shop Arrieta this winter, to a team rich with prospects. So that we could then trade those prospects for another TOR not over 33. Seems shocking to do that so soon, but if our system is that bad he may have a point.

 

[beckdawg]

Seems shocking to do that so soon, but if our system is that bad he may have a point.

The system isn't bad. It's just deep rather than having a ton of peak talent. And to be fair, they haven't used a lot of high draft picks on pitching so that's not really a surprise. With that said there's 2 things, 1) pitching isn't always obvious in that you'll have guys who were 2-10th round picks become top 50 players and 2) the cubs do have some intriguing arms at really low levels. For example, not many people know much about Jose Albertos but the cubs gave him $1.5 mil in IFA money this july which unless I'm mistaken si the second most to any IFA pitcher thus far in this period. TC mentioned Cease. Bryan Hudson could be pretty good.

Until then you're looking more at guys like Steele, Sands, Clifotn, Null, Williams, Stinnett, Tseng, Pierce Johnson, Oscar De La Cruz, and Underwood. Only a few of those guys guys realistically have potential as TOR guys but finding 2-5 pitching shouldn't be a problem.

 

[beckdawg]

So BlackBurn and Clifton aren't considered TOR's?

Not really. But as I mentioned in my previous post the way pitching development works isn't exactly linear. By that I mean you'll often have guys just break out of no where. For example, Edwards was a 40th round draft pick. You'll often have guys with great stuff who had 0 control when they were drafted and who suddenly find enough to make it work for them. You'll other times have guys with lessor stuff who just end up being better than people thought as they progress thru the minors. You can also have guys add new pitches and that sets up the rest of their stuff.

I want to be clear though. Generally speaking the vast majority of guys you will see in top 100 lists are 1st and 2nd round draft picks or high dollar IFAs. I'd say something like 25% come from outside that area.

 

[beckdawg]

Alcantara first 27 games(109 PAs)
.238/.294/.426 7.3%/28.4% bb/k rate 8 SB, 3 HRs

last 14 games(49 PAS)
.295/.367/.455 10.2%/24.5% bb/k rate, 5 SB, 2 HRs

Still not entirely thrilled about a 24.5% k rate but the last 14 game version of Alcantara looks a whole lot more like the player I thought he'd be in the majors.

 

[DanTown]

Alcantara first 27 games(109 PAs)
.238/.294/.426 7.3%/28.4% bb/k rate 8 SB, 3 HRs

last 14 games(49 PAS)
.295/.367/.455 10.2%/24.5% bb/k rate, 5 SB, 2 HRs

Still not entirely thrilled about a 24.5% k rate but the last 14 game version of Alcantara looks a whole lot more like the player I thought he'd be in the majors.

What did he do differently? You cannot just cherry pick a sample without there being a reason that the two periods are different. Otherwise, he's likely just having a natural ebb/flow that happens to all baseball players.

 

[CSF77]

Alcantara is depth right now. His value is right with Logan Watkins. From the old management team but good enough to stick around.

His slash is .257/.317/.446

Other guys brought in from the Hendry ERA:

Watkins: .196/.227/.239
Andreoli: .208/.308/.340

Best of them:
Vogelbach: .308/.421/.511

Just like Baez has proven that these guys can make it but they have to earn it. We saw early on that Theo and Jed really didn't care about the farm they got. Tossing out every player they could.

Still you can't argue results. On the team and Almora and Contreras both looking the everyday MLB player part vs bench depth.

To be honest I'm expecting Almora promoted this year. .326/.344/.471 Add in top shelf D. For sure the starting CF next year.

 

[TL1961]

Alcantara is depth right now. His value is right with Logan Watkins. From the old management team but good enough to stick around.

His slash is .257/.317/.446

Other guys brought in from the Hendry ERA:

Watkins: .196/.227/.239
Andreoli: .208/.308/.340

Best of them:
Vogelbach: .308/.421/.511

Just like Baez has proven that these guys can make it but they have to earn it. We saw early on that Theo and Jed really didn't care about the farm they got. Tossing out every player they could.

Still you can't argue results. On the team and Almora and Contreras both looking the everyday MLB player part vs bench depth.

To be honest I'm expecting Almora promoted this year. .326/.344/.471 Add in top shelf D. For sure the starting CF next year.

I think this is poorly stated. You make it sound as though they threw out guys from Hendry's era because they were from hendry's era, rather than because they were not good enough.


Perhaps it wasn't meant that way, but I read it that way.

I don't know that they were just tossing everything out. Dumping the Junior Lakes of the world is hardly an indictment.

 

[beckdawg]

What did he do differently? You cannot just cherry pick a sample without there being a reason that the two periods are different. Otherwise, he's likely just having a natural ebb/flow that happens to all baseball players.

Not sure what you're expecting. This wasn't a declarative statement that Alcantara some how is now a MLB level all-star. It was simply suggesting that after a horrible start he's played significantly better over the past 2 weeks. Also FWIW, I'm not even sure you can draw much from the minor leagues to begin with unless your physically going to all the games. Video can be quite shoddy to compare and even some of the more basic things metric wise aren't there for the minor leagues... at least to the public.

That being said, my guess is that the cubs have been doing their organizational push which they've done on most players which is to not swing at anything that isn't a pitch you can hit hard with Alcantara and he likely struggled with it. That would explain why his walk rate skyrocketed as well as his K rate. I read something recently about Almora also struggling with the concept at first in that he thought they just wanted him to walk more and it messed with his game rather than what they actually want which is for players to find pitches they can drive rather than swinging at anything in the zone.

Whether or not Alcantara is actually getting the concept now and making it work for him we'll see. As I mentioned his K rate is still too high for the player he needs to be.

 

[CSF77]

I think this is poorly stated. You make it sound as though they threw out guys from Hendry's era because they were from hendry's era, rather than because they were not good enough.


Perhaps it wasn't meant that way, but I read it that way.

I don't know that they were just tossing everything out. Dumping the Junior Lakes of the world is hardly an indictment.

They pretty much did. They traded out Colvin and what his face to Col for trash. Let Flarity go to Balt via rule V. It was like they wanted to hose out the system with out evaluating it. Even Jed said that they should have never let Flairty hit rule V like that.

lake was given a shot. Didn't mention him but he never proved he was legit.

My opinion is Hendry was not a good talent evaluater. He went for tools guys vs looking at them as ball players.

Add to it Vitters and Jackson. Stalled out at AAA. These were the future.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/03/cubs-all-time-worst-draft-decisions-2/#image/2

Gets into it more

 

[CSF77]

Not sure what you're expecting. This wasn't a declarative statement that Alcantara some how is now a MLB level all-star. It was simply suggesting that after a horrible start he's played significantly better over the past 2 weeks. Also FWIW, I'm not even sure you can draw much from the minor leagues to begin with unless your physically going to all the games. Video can be quite shoddy to compare and even some of the more basic things metric wise aren't there for the minor leagues... at least to the public.

That being said, my guess is that the cubs have been doing their organizational push which they've done on most players which is to not swing at anything that isn't a pitch you can hit hard with Alcantara and he likely struggled with it. That would explain why his walk rate skyrocketed as well as his K rate. I read something recently about Almora also struggling with the concept at first in that he thought they just wanted him to walk more and it messed with his game rather than what they actually want which is for players to find pitches they can drive rather than swinging at anything in the zone.

Whether or not Alcantara is actually getting the concept now and making it work for him we'll see. As I mentioned his K rate is still too high for the player he needs to be.

Almora is in the right direction but with advanced scouting his holes are easier to exploit at the major league level. The Cubs already have a back up lead off in Zobrist so giving Almora the same treatment Russell got would be expected.

 

[Parade_Rain]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/05/cubs-prospect-statistical-update-the-hitters/

Update on Cubs MilB hitters from the Cubs Den.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

My opinion is Hendry was not a good talent evaluater. He went for tools guys vs looking at them as ball players.

Actually by all accounts Hendry was, and is, a very good scout so I'm not sure he was a bad talent evaluater I think he was a bad talent compiler for lack of a better word. Part of it was that he liked the toolsy guys as you said and part of it is that, under his leadership, they did not have a standard for who they wanted to draft which actually a bit surprising because Andy McPhail had created that kind of a standard player model in Minnesota and Hendry began his GM stint under McPhail. My impression was though that McPhail by that time didn't his job in Chicago much but that's just a hunch. The Hendry regime also didn't have much use for the emerging advanced metrics so you ended up with a haphazard draft strategy where player conflicted with rather than complemented each other and were thrust into a disorganized developments system. Can you imagine what it would be like for a hitter to be taught one plate approach at low A, another in high A then his AA or AAA coaches tell him to go back to what he was taught in low A or even something else entirely. Add that to the fact that these weren't exactly well rounded players and you have an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Diehardfan]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/05/cubs-prospect-statistical-update-the-hitters/

Update on Cubs MilB hitters from the Cubs Den.

Wow, Contreras is smoking. I just realized that I never saw him play before, so I looked him up on UTube. His swing and stance are eerily similar to Starlin Castro.