Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[DanTown]

Here's your problem..... you're assuming I was trying to prove anything. I was just pointing out he was playing better.

I don't see anything in the numbers you posted that suggests anything more than "BABIP luck".

I look at his game log and except for a "HR binge", I don't see it.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=570489#/gamelogs/R/hitting/2016/MINORS

I mean I agree but you're suggesting I should have proved something with regard to Alcantara.

When you say "guy X is playing better" and you use a data set of "before" and "after" as evidence, there has to be a change somewhere. Your use of stats continues to amaze me at how completely baseless it is to any sort of mathematical principle.

I can sit here and say his walk rate is up and his K rate is down from the start of the season if I were attempting to prove something but that really doesn't tell you what is happening.

Sure it's down but two things

1. I can't tell you enough times that there is no difference in either data set (i.e change in stance, swing, etc)
2. While it's down, it's still not good nor something that shows any sort of future MLB ability seeing as he's repeating AAA for the third time and just past 1000 PA in AAA.

It tells you the outcome.

Which is almost meaningless in scouting guys.

Is he seeing the ball better? Is he just not swinging at pitches? The "why" is missing. So when I'm saying they lack the proper metrics, I'm suggesting things like batted ball data, pitch fx and pitch data of what was in the zone and so forth.

These are all great questions that you didn't answer when you said "Alcantra is playing better". I don't understand what you want me to do when you post something I disagree with on a message board.

I did nothing of the sort. I picked a 50 PA sample size narrowed to the nearest game. I chose 50 PAs because it's half what you'd normally accept as the lowest starting point for it being real and not just a hot streak so that it is something you can keep an eye on if you're so inclined. If i wanted to make it the best he could have possibly looked I could have done better.

I don't think any scout uses 50 PA as a representative sample seeing as 50 PA is generally 10-15 games.

 

[CSF77]

The Garza deal was somewhat defensible but it wasn't even the worst trade Jim ever did. The Pierre deal to me was the worst deal he ever did and made me question how many of his moves were basically the ownership (first the Wrigley group then Zell) demanding that the Cubs win today to sell the team?

This franchise was so poorly run for decades it's amazing how much Theo has changed the culture in just five years.

Worst thing Kenny Lofton Not getting a deal

 

[Parade_Rain]

I was happy they signed Bradley...

I was hoping he could just not be a total ass and just be productive..
He was the bat they needed in the lineup, almost like their Jason Heyward type

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

So you don't mind working with assholes? It makes you want to be part of the team and go to the office or plant every day?

 

[chibears55]

So you don't mind working with assholes? It makes you want to be part of the team and go to the office or plant every day?

Well unfortunately I do deal with assholes and despite that I have to go to work and do my job everyday..

That said...

Don't know how me minding working with assholes have anything to do with liking that Hendry brought in Bradley because he fitted what they needed and just hoped he wouldn't be a total ass and just produced.

But if you're trying to say his teammates didn't care for him then well like me and millions others that are unfortunate to have to work with assholes everyday for 8 hours , deal with it and do your job.
They only had to deal with him for 3 hours a day for162 baseball games... be professional and deal with it..

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well unfortunately I do deal with assholes and despite that I have to go to work and do my job everyday..

That said...

Don't know how me minding working with assholes have anything to do with liking that Hendry brought in Bradley because he fitted what they needed and just hoped he wouldn't be a total ass and just produced.

But if you're trying to say his teammates didn't care for him then well like me and millions others that are unfortunate to have to work with assholes everyday for 8 hours , deal with it and do your job.
They only had to deal with him for 3 hours a day for162 baseball games... be professional and deal with it..

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Because in an all for one and one for all team aspect, Bradley was a chemistry drain the minute he was signed.

 

[chibears55]

Because in an all for one and one for all team aspect, Bradley was a chemistry drain the minute he was signed.

I'm guessing there are a lot of players that can be considered that and as long as they produce and or the team wins it's all good... when they don't produce and or team loses it gets magnified more..

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[SilenceS]

I'm guessing there are a lot of players that can be considered that and as long as they produce and or the team wins it's all good... when they don't produce and or team loses it gets magnified more..

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds are considering two huge assholes and they played on the same team. If the team wins, no one cares. When they lose, its all about the chemistry. Bradley may have been a dick, but thats not why the Cubs lost.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't see anything in the numbers you posted that suggests anything more than "BABIP luck".

His BABIP over that period was .367. That's perhaps a little high but he's A) fast so he's always going to be a bit over .300 and B) historically been in the .330ish range. So, it's not like he's had a .500 BABIP or something.

When you say "guy X is playing better" and you use a data set of "before" and "after" as evidence, there has to be a change somewhere.

Evidence of what? Look I'm not a scout. I'm not a hitting coach. If you want analysis of his swing or whatever, I'm not that guy and I've repeatedly said so whenever the topic has come up. And ultimately, the deep dive you need to do this with data just isn't there. No where AFAIK tracks hard hit ball data for minor league players. No where AFAIK tracks O-swing% or Z-swing% for minor league players.

We already have a large sample size data that shows Alcantara can hit at a AAA level. Over 366 PAs in 2014 he hit .307/.353/.537. He then went up to the majors and wasn't ready and had some flaws exposed. Since then he hasn't hit AAA(.231/.285/.399 in 499 PAs last year and the aforementioned 100ish PAs to start 2016). And in that time his K rate had been substantially higher. However, his walk rate has also been up some since really his small 2015 MLB stint. So, it's logical to believe the team has had him trying some new things in that time frame and given his past he's never really hit that bad at any level. So, him struggling while adapting to a new approach would be a logical conclusion.

My point with the recent view slice wasn't to suggest they call him up to the majors today. It was to point out he looked a lot more like 2014 Alcantara only with a better walk rate(and worse K rate sadly). It's not enough sample size to draw any firm conclusions admittedly but like I said that wasn't the point I was trying to make. If Alcantara has indeed returned close to those 2014 numbers AFTER making some changes to his approach, it's a very good sign for him. As I said in the initial post, I want to see his K rate come down more.

Long story short, I pointed it out mainly because it's something that's worth watching over the next month or so. If he maintains a 10%ish walk rate and his K rate continues to fall, he could be a very useful player to spark the MLB team in August. He can obviously play multiple positions and he'd probably immediately be the best runner on the cubs roster as he's presently 12 for 12 in SB attempts. Fangraphs and baseball ref don't track minor league splits but I'd also be curious to see how he's hitting from both sides of the plate since he is a switch hitter.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds are considering two huge assholes and they played on the same team. If the team wins, no one cares. When they lose, its all about the chemistry. Bradley may have been a dick, but thats not why the Cubs lost.

Funny how the Cubs organization hasn't traded for or promoted someone like that since the early days of the new regime.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Funny how the Cubs organization hasn't traded for or promoted someone like that since the early days of the new regime.

That's the thing, yes you can win with assholes but why would you want to if, and sometimes that's a big if, there was another option? The Cubs list character as part f their evaluation process so for the people that think Arodys Chapman would be a nice July pickup, I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[CSF77]

Doesn't do much for a team that is trying to present themselves as family friendly.

Teams have their own set of ideals. Yanks have their players clean cut. Part of the image that they are setting for themselves.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Nice little interview with Dylan Cease who's been wowing scouts recently


http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/05/meet-cubs-top-pitching-prospect-dylan-cease/

 

[chibears55]

Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds are considering two huge assholes and they played on the same team. If the team wins, no one cares. When they lose, its all about the chemistry. Bradley may have been a dick, but thats not why the Cubs lost.

That pretty much what I wrote...

I didn't say he was the reason..

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs sure have a lot of interesting relievers in AAA.

Spencer Patton 13.24 k/9 4.24 bb/9
Carl Edwards Jr. 12.76 k/9 4.42 bb/9
Pierce Johnson 11.49 k/9 4.60 bb/9
Felix Pena 11.41 k/9 2.66 bb/9
Armando Rivero 11.32 k/9 6.10 bb/9
Scott Barnes 10.80 k/9 4.80 bb/9
Miguel Mejia 10.22 k/9 3.65 bb/9

Most of them have rather poor control but they have these guys all over 10 k/9. Johnson has been starting but with a 4.6 bb/9 probably wont continue to do that unless he finds some control. Barnes has also had some starts but at 28 think his future if in the majors is a reliever.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Cubs sure have a lot of interesting relievers in AAA.

Spencer Patton 13.24 k/9 4.24 bb/9
Carl Edwards Jr. 12.76 k/9 4.42 bb/9
Pierce Johnson 11.49 k/9 4.60 bb/9
Felix Pena 11.41 k/9 2.66 bb/9
Armando Rivero 11.32 k/9 6.10 bb/9
Scott Barnes 10.80 k/9 4.80 bb/9
Miguel Mejia 10.22 k/9 3.65 bb/9

Most of them have rather poor control but they have these guys all over 10 k/9. Johnson has been starting but with a 4.6 bb/9 probably wont continue to do that unless he finds some control. Barnes has also had some starts but at 28 think his future if in the majors is a reliever.

You didn't even mention Gerardo Concepcion who is likely to see Wrigley sooner rather than later.

 

[beckdawg]

You didn't even mention Gerardo Concepcion who is likely to see Wrigley sooner rather than later.

Yeah I was more going on high k/9 guys but you're right.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Tell me about Ian Rice.

 

[DanTown]

Tell me about Ian Rice.

There's nothing to tell about a 22 year old guy with a .447 BABIP in single A. He's having a good few weeks but there's nothing long term there in his ability nor in his potential.

 

[beckdawg]

Tell me about Ian Rice.

Probably not a super talented prospect given he was 29th round pick last year and is 22. The little I could quickly dig up on him basically suggested they drafted him as an organizational catcher. In other words, a guy just to fill a slot or at least that was the thought at the time. Some place I ran into suggested he was more of a defensive minded catcher but I wasn't sure if they were referring to him specifically or the general idea of an organizational catcher given the way they worded it.

Given the way he's hit I'm not sure Rice is that bad. At 22 he's slightly old for A ball. He should probably be in A+ given that age but it's not like he's 24. And that could explain why he's hitting well. As an example, last year Torres at 18 was in A ball and while he was super young for that league it does show you that you will often be facing guys at 19-20 rather than 22.

I'd suggest giving him some time before drawing any real conclusions. For one thing, if his defense as a catcher is good that will take him a long way. Additionally, thus far he's been a high walk rate low-ish k rate guy which is typically a good profile as a hitter. He could break out a la Contreras but if I had to guess going forward I'd say his top end is probably as a back up catcher at the MLB level.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

This is a really informative article from John over at Cubs Den on the 2015 IFA class.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/05/a-look-back-at-the-cubs-2015-ifa-class/