Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Long shot he stays behind the plate.

In fairness to the question, he could probably be better than Piazza in time. From a strictly skill set stand point I believe he has more ability defensively at catcher than Piazza did. That being said, my personal preference is for more defensive oriented catchers and hope that they are half way decent. For instance, if you made Yady Molina a below average hitter I'd still take him as a starting catcher because of the way he handles pitching and defense in general. In my opinion, catchers just get beat up too much to rely on them to be major offensive weapons so I prefer to have their skill set be primarily defense. If they can hit all the better but defense should be the top priority.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Long shot he stays behind the plate.

Going to be interesting to watch. If this year' proves that his bat is nearly MLB ready as scouts have almost universally been saying he's pretty unlikely to stick at catcher. They're letting him try because the value of a power hitting, high OBP, lefty backstop is off the charts high, but he's probably two years away from catching and one year away (or less) as a hitter. something will have to give.

 

[fatbeard]

Going to be interesting to watch. If this year' proves that his bat is nearly MLB ready as scouts have almost universally been saying he's pretty unlikely to stick at catcher. They're letting him try because the value of a power hitting, high OBP, lefty backstop is off the charts high, but he's probably two years away from catching and one year away (or less) as a hitter. something will have to give.

I think this is one of the reasons why the Cubs have been loathe to pursue any options in LF. They're rapidly running out of positions where the future power bats are going to play. They've nearly got too many puzzle pieces and not enough spots for them all, especially when you start thinking about 2016.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not worried so much about 2016. 2015 will dictate what they do in 2016.

If they are in the hunt I would expect them to start trading to get in. That is the nature of the business and they have depth to do so.

If it is not working then I could see them dealing out Castro and putting Russell in at short. With Castro getting a quality rotation prospect.

Any thing else is wasting time and resource.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not worried so much about 2016. 2015 will dictate what they do in 2016.

If they are in the hunt I would expect them to start trading to get in. That is the nature of the business and they have depth to do so.

If it is not working then I could see them dealing out Castro and putting Russell in at short. With Castro getting a quality rotation prospect.

Any thing else is wasting time and resource.

Right, we're actually saying the same thing. Something will give. They have the human assets and the monetary assets to win. The trade deadline could shape the end of the year and 2016. So a could a, albeit unlikely, playoff run.

 

[CSF77]

That question was posed to Mayo about LF with Schwarber and Almora. He said Almora is a plus D CF. He would lose value in LF due to his lack of power. Alcantara still has much to prove in CF as he has been learning on the fly. So he is no sure thing. Schwarber is viewed as improbable vs impossible as a catcher. But they should let it play out as the pay out as him as a catcher is worth it.

 

[SilenceS]

Yea, almost every scout I read gives Schwarber less then a 25 percent chance to stay behind the plate.

 

[CSF77]

Yea, almost every scout I read gives Schwarber less then a 25 percent chance to stay behind the plate.

Almora should start in AA. At best he hits Iowa mid summer. 2016 he should be getting a promote.

Schwarber was in A+. I expect him to take Bryant's path and start in AA with Almora. Mid summer in AAA should be his eta. 2016 again.

Russell should start in Iowa. I expect him and Edwards there with Bryant (For 2 weeks). I expect Russell promoted or traded by the deadline. It depends on if they can flip Castro for a young arm or use Russell for a proven.

A maybe would be Baez flipped instead of Castro. If he starts to hit HR's and a team wants his bat. Say the Mets (my ideal trade partner) http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/...-than-noah-syndergaard-has-the-most-potential

would flip a arm for Baez. If Baez is raking then Syndergaard makes a ideal flip. Steven Matz is another target. LH in AAA could become an ideal arm to go after.

 

[beckdawg]

McLeod told a great story about how he and Theo met with Schwarber before draft and asked if he thinks he could stick at C. Schwarber looked them both in the eye and said with confidence that he knows he can stick at C and it "ticks" him off when ppl say he cant.

Got to like the attitude. Don't know that his opinion matters but you can see why the front office would like him leading up to the draft.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

One piece of news that people should pay attention to is Gleyber Torres likely to start at South Bend a couple months past his 18th birthday. That's kind of huge. If he can show something there he's either a very valuable trade chip or a kid likely to play in Wrigley by the time he's 21 years old. One to watch either way.

 

[beckdawg]

"Scouts are raving about Arismendy Alcantara and the talent he displayed for his Licey team in winter ball," writes ESPN's Jim Bowden. "He showed his usual power and speed while hitting .324, and continued to make strides defensively in center field. Last year he posted 20 homers, 29 steals and 69 extra-base hits between Triple-A and the big leagues, and will end up being an important part of the Cubs' lineup this year and going forward

I'm going to keep saying this... I think Alcantara has a big year. As a reference point, 6 major league players had more than 69 XBH. Trout, Miggy, Cruz, Abreu, McCutchen and Stanton. Obviously a lot of that was AAA and comes with a grain of salt. However, when you put that sort of combination of skills together that he has the upside is immense. I'm not going to go too crazy here but I would point out it's worth looking at what he did in the minors comparative to McCutchen.

McCutchen

Alcantara

The takeaway here isn't that Alcantara will be McCutchen. The only point I'm trying to make here is people don't really talk about Alcantara's upside like this. The general sense you get is that people think he might be a decent utility player. This is the kind of upside he has as a player.

 

[TL1961]

Thanks for that info on Alcantara. I keep thinking the same thing - he will be a big part of the offense and the team's performance.

I know prospect rankings are far from a perfectly reliable predictor of future performance. But to think that Soler was #48 and Alcantara #18 should at least indicate to us that AA is a very talented player. I believe much of the inequity between those two is that Soler is rated too low, whether due to injury concerns, smaller sample size of his performance, position played, whatever.

But Alcantara slugged .537 at AAA. He hit 10 HR's in AAA in 1/2 a season, and then did the same while "struggling" in the majors. HR's aren't everything, but if you figure this "little guy" in his first stint in the majors was showing as a 20HR guy, that's a heck of a nice starting point. He has speed and good instincts on the bases, and played a good defensive 2nd base.

His CF defense was admittedly raw, but I have no concerns whatsoever that he can handle CF. He had no experience there before he came to Wrigley. He should reasonably be expected to get much more comfortable and to get better. If he played subpar D for years, i would not expect improvement. But after his first 1/2 year? Yeah, he'll be better.

To me, the Cubs' offense became more dynamic the day he was promoted to the majors. He is a huge piece of the 2015 puzzle.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Thanks for that info on Alcantara. I keep thinking the same thing - he will be a big part of the offense and the team's performance.

I know prospect rankings are far from a perfectly reliable predictor of future performance. But to think that Soler was #48 and Alcantara #18 should at least indicate to us that AA is a very talented player. I believe much of the inequity between those two is that Soler is rated too low, whether due to injury concerns, smaller sample size of his performance, position played, whatever.

But Alcantara slugged .537 at AAA. He hit 10 HR's in AAA in 1/2 a season, and then did the same while "struggling" in the majors. HR's aren't everything, but if you figure this "little guy" in his first stint in the majors was showing as a 20HR guy, that's a heck of a nice starting point. He has speed and good instincts on the bases, and played a good defensive 2nd base.

His CF defense was admittedly raw, but I have no concerns whatsoever that he can handle CF. He had no experience there before he came to Wrigley. He should reasonably be expected to get much more comfortable and to get better. If he played subpar D for years, i would not expect improvement. But after his first 1/2 year? Yeah, he'll be better.

To me, the Cubs' offense became more dynamic the day he was promoted to the majors. He is a huge piece of the 2015 puzzle.

My favorite thing about Alcantara is that he made himself a top prospect in the eyes of the Cubs brass. He had been in teh system for a long time before Theo took over and a separate times both Theo and Jed have admitted they didn't think he was an elite prospect. He made himself that. That seriously shows something and not only that but he played his way into being the first of the lauded prospects to make the big club. You can see his skills, even raw and mistake prone as they were last year but his heart is something that isn't always mentioned. The kid has a ton of it.

 

[CSF77]

I'm going to keep saying this... I think Alcantara has a big year. As a reference point, 6 major league players had more than 69 XBH. Trout, Miggy, Cruz, Abreu, McCutchen and Stanton. Obviously a lot of that was AAA and comes with a grain of salt. However, when you put that sort of combination of skills together that he has the upside is immense. I'm not going to go too crazy here but I would point out it's worth looking at what he did in the minors comparative to McCutchen.

McCutchen

Alcantara

The takeaway here isn't that Alcantara will be McCutchen. The only point I'm trying to make here is people don't really talk about Alcantara's upside like this. The general sense you get is that people think he might be a decent utility player. This is the kind of upside he has as a player.

On avg his BB% was 1/2 Mc's except 2007/2012 both were around 5-6%. then both jumped to 11.5/10.9. K% Mc was better in general. by a 5% margin.

So looking at strike zone mastery Mc was the better prospect.

That said: I like Alcantara. But he needs to improve his plate discipline. He has some strong tools going but he needs to work on that aspect of the game. He proved that he can get up to 10% which should be a goal for him. SO's as long as he hovers around 20% no one will complain as long as his BB is around 10%.

I feel he should be starting though. He is a better option than what going on in LF.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Some interesting scouting info over at Cubs Den:

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...t-talk-about-5-cubs-prospects/#comment-194199

 

[beckdawg]

The biggest surprise is Schwarber at #20. Though maybe we shouldn't be too surprised as the Cubs top LH hitting prospect has gained momentum as more and more scouts are beginning to believe he can stick at catcher. In case you have forgotten, Kiley McDaniel recently ranked him 21st overall.

Few people doubt he can hit. He has 30 HR power potential with the ability to take walks and hit for solid average. The most conservative estimate I got from any scout I talked to was one who said "at worst" you have a .285 hitter with 25 HR power in LF. If he can duplicate those or surpass those numbers while sticking behind the dish, the Cubs will have themselves another all-star level player.

from http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...-ranks-4-cubs-in-top-20-6-overall-in-top-100/

Feel like people such as KLaw(has him rated way lower than top 30) are putting too much emphasis on position. You get that as a "conservative" estimate and you likely have a fringe all-star at any position. Think I said something to the effect after the draft that I felt his upside as a hitter was pretty great. His minor league stat lines look like Rizzo with better average. His college stat lines are similar too. And by that I mostly am talking about their walk/k rates with the similar power and overall similar skill sets.

 

[SilenceS]

from http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...-ranks-4-cubs-in-top-20-6-overall-in-top-100/

Feel like people such as KLaw(has him rated way lower than top 30) are putting too much emphasis on position. You get that as a "conservative" estimate and you likely have a fringe all-star at any position. Think I said something to the effect after the draft that I felt his upside as a hitter was pretty great. His minor league stat lines look like Rizzo with better average. His college stat lines are similar too. And by that I mostly am talking about their walk/k rates with the similar power and overall similar skill sets.

Position has a lot to do with everything


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Even if he ends up in LF a guy that can hit .300 with an OBA hovering .400 with 25 HR power (LH on a RH dominated line up) is no bad thing.

 

[SilenceS]

Even if he ends up in LF a guy that can hit .300 with an OBA hovering .400 with 25 HR power (LH on a RH dominated line up) is no bad thing.

Its not a bad thing but if you are a saying a guy batting. 280 with a .360 OBP and hits 25 plus bombs looks a lot better in the IF then a guy in left with no defense. I never questioned his bat. His position is what I questioned on his value. Also, I think Rizzo is a more complete hitter. I dont put stock in guys his path until they do it with competition his age. Doesnt mean I dont think he will succeed. I just dont think you get a good view of his flaws until he competes against competition worthy of him.

 

[beckdawg]

Its not a bad thing but if you are a saying a guy batting. 280 with a .360 OBP and hits 25 plus bombs looks a lot better in the IF then a guy in left with no defense.

2 LF's last season(Kemp/Brantely) hit .280 with more than 20 HRs. Just sayin we're in an age where that's an all-star potentially. If for whatever reason he does stick at C that's basically as good as Buster Posey who hit 22 HRs with .311/.364/.490. My issue is that knocking him based on position is kind of silly because if that is his "floor" there's only a couple of players with that power and average combo(he also has the OBP too). Put another way, would you trade a top 5 LF for a league average C? That's the way I view Schwarber vs some other C prospects who may stick but don't have his hit tools. If a catcher is an average hitter but is Yady Molina defensively then I can see the argument given all of what Molina gives the Cards. However, a number of them aren't really that impressive defensively themselves.

It feels like people still have steroid era LF in their thoughts. Last season league average for LF was .253/.319/.401 with 16 homers over 650 PAs. At 25 HRs that's a 56% increase in power over the "average player" and obviously the avg/obp would be considerably better. And according to that scout, that's his low end. Now I'm not sure my personal assessment would be that high for his floor but I'm obviously not a scout. But if there's honestly as little concern about Schwarber's bat as this article indicates then I think he really should be higher because it doesn't matter where he plays the bat will put him in a line up. A lot of the other players have fewer(if any) questions of sticking at C but will they actually hit? And if they don't hit do they play?

Ultimately that's the point i was going for when I said I don't agree with KLaw's(and others) view.