Cubs Magic Number

[didshereallysaythat]

The magic number doesn't tell the whole story in this case and here is why.

We are 6.5 up over the Giants. But we are also 4 up on the Dodgers. We only have to beat out one of them since the other one has to take the division anyway. Also, the Giants and Dodgers still play each other 7 more times. What this means is that the magic number can be reduced in multiple ways and in some cases automatically. Furthermore, both the Dodgers and Giants still play the Pirates 3 more times. The Pirates still play the Cardinals 6 more times. What this shows is that it is almost impossible for the Pirates to stay ahead of the Cubs without the Cardinals coming back down to the Cubs or the Giants getting farther away from the Cubs.

I think the Cubs would really have to collapse to not get in. They probably lose today with Bumgarner vs Haren, but if they just take 1 from the Dodgers, that would still be good. The key is 7 games Dodgers vs Giants and Pirates vs Giants and Dodgers.

 

[brett05]

The magic number doesn't tell the whole story in this case and here is why.

We are 6.5 up over the Giants. But we are also 4 up on the Dodgers. We only have to beat out one of them since the other one has to take the division anyway. Also, the Giants and Dodgers still play each other 7 more times. What this means is that the magic number can be reduced in multiple ways and in some cases automatically. Furthermore, both the Dodgers and Giants still play the Pirates 3 more times. The Pirates still play the Cardinals 6 more times. What this shows is that it is almost impossible for the Pirates to stay ahead of the Cubs without the Cardinals coming back down to the Cubs or the Giants getting farther away from the Cubs.

I think the Cubs would really have to collapse to not get in. They probably lose today with Bumgarner vs Haren, but if they just take 1 from the Dodgers, that would still be good. The key is 7 games Dodgers vs Giants and Pirates vs Giants and Dodgers.

You are right. I remember a few years back a team (the Cards?) were like five games from being eliminated. But based on schedules they already were.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs just have to avoid a long losing streak here on out.. stay near 20 over and they should go into the playoffs. .

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[brett05]

Cubs just have to avoid a long losing streak here on out.. stay near 20 over and they should go into the playoffs. .

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I agree, the worst would be something like an 8 game losing streak

Or injuries. For the most part the Cubs have been extremely healthy.

 

[2323]

.

Cubs just have to avoid a long losing streak here on out.. stay near 20 over and they should go into the playoffs. .

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Meh. I hate the one game that WC teams play. It's really unfortunate that the Cardinals are stealing signs and such to the degree they likely are. Their record is way better than the talent they have. I'd really prefer that the Cubs win the division but the Cards have amassed too much of a lead probably. But it's lucre.

 

[ijustposthere]

The magic number doesn't tell the whole story in this case and here is why.

We are 6.5 up over the Giants. But we are also 4 up on the Dodgers. We only have to beat out one of them since the other one has to take the division anyway. Also, the Giants and Dodgers still play each other 7 more times. What this means is that the magic number can be reduced in multiple ways and in some cases automatically. Furthermore, both the Dodgers and Giants still play the Pirates 3 more times. The Pirates still play the Cardinals 6 more times. What this shows is that it is almost impossible for the Pirates to stay ahead of the Cubs without the Cardinals coming back down to the Cubs or the Giants getting farther away from the Cubs.

I think the Cubs would really have to collapse to not get in. They probably lose today with Bumgarner vs Haren, but if they just take 1 from the Dodgers, that would still be good. The key is 7 games Dodgers vs Giants and Pirates vs Giants and Dodgers.

So he actually was wrong about everything in this thread.

 

[Boobaby1]

.

Meh. I hate the one game that WC teams play. It's really unfortunate that the Cardinals are stealing signs and such to the degree they likely are. Their record is way better than the talent they have. I'd really prefer that the Cubs win the division but the Cards have amassed too much of a lead probably. But it's lucre.

I will take a one gamer versus sitting at home any day. These young kids will benefit greatly from it.

I think the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs have played over their heads this year. Just an opinion

No one would have thought these teams would win this many games. Well, maybe a homer or two.

 

[brett05]

So he actually was wrong about everything in this thread.

:smh: Keep at it scarecrow

 

[brett05]

Magic number update...31 and holding

 

[brett05]

Magic Number down to 27. Giants keep losing.

 

[chibears55]

Pirates lost 3 in a row, damn cubs couldn't take advantage and close the gap between them a bit..

 

[CRM 114]

Pirates lost 3 in a row, damn cubs couldn't take advantage and close the gap between them a bit..

Think on the bright side. At least we are roughly the same amount of games behind still.

 

[brett05]

Magic number to 24. Basically a dead lock for the second wild card. Still a possibility to switch places with the Pirates.

 

[chibears55]

Magic number to 24. Basically a dead lock for the second wild card. Still a possibility to switch places with the Pirates.

Ive basically written off catching the Cardinals. .

With 30 games left and 10 behind them, cubs could go 20-10 and need the Cardinals to go 10-20 just to tie..
Not a likely scenario. ...


They do have a chance with Pirates being 5 back but need to win 4 or more of the remaining 6 head to head games to cut into that lead..

Their almost safe with the Giants being 7 up on them now, basically like the Cardinals scenario. . Cubs would have to collapse while the Giants get hot..

So, looking safe to say the Cubs should make the WC this year..

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Ive basically written off catching the Cardinals. .

With 30 games left and 10 behind them, cubs could go 20-10 and need the Cardinals to go 10-20 just to tie..
Not a likely scenario. ...


They do have a chance with Pirates being 5 back but need to win 4 or more of the remaining 6 head to head games to cut into that lead..

Their almost safe with the Giants being 7 up on them now, basically like the Cardinals scenario. . Cubs would have to collapse while the Giants get hot..

So, looking safe to say the Cubs should make the WC this year..

The math looks good on holding the second WC but it's not a lock. If Schwarber misses any significant time a long losing streak becomes a concern. He looked like he had been figuring things out lately and the fact that you had three guys in Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber who could be counted on to get you back into games with one swing is huge. Losing one would hurt and would scare me against teams like St. Louis and Pittsburgh.

 

[chibears55]

The math looks good on holding the second WC but it's not a lock. If Schwarber misses any significant time a long losing streak becomes a concern. He looked like he had been figuring things out lately and the fact that you had three guys in Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber who could be counted on to get you back into games with one swing is huge. Losing one would hurt and would scare me against teams like St. Louis and Pittsburgh.

Im not overly concern with the hitting, they should still be able to score 3+ runs.. jackson was a nice pick up to help ..

If anything the bottom of rotation would be a concern but I still dont see them going anywhere near a 10-20 drought to where the giants can go just 18 -12 to over take them..

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[PatrickShart]

Magic number should be 4 - as in when the other teams best hitter (and one of the best in the league), is at the plate with a chance to win a game.....throw 4 balls to him and make someone else beat you.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Magic number should be 4 - as in when the other teams best hitter (and one of the best in the league), is at the plate with a chance to win a game.....throw 4 balls to him and make someone else beat you.

How can man with four balls walk?

 

[brett05]

How can man with four balls walk?

With a hump I guess.

 

[PatrickShart]

How can man with four balls walk?

VERY gingerly...