Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

Speed is a whole lot more than stealing. For a leadoff guy that means1st to 3rd, scoring from 2nd, scoring on ground balls and sac flies, etc.

BTW, for the record, I am not pushing for Schwarber to lead off. I just say poor D in LF does not mean poor baserunning.

I mean most players in the league can reasonably go 1st to 3rd on a single. Sure faster would be better but i mean i don't really see having speed in the lead off being any more or less valuable than speed in the 5 hole. Unless you are going to play a small ball bunt/sb type team it's fairly irrelevant.

 

[beckdawg]

The Mariners have struck a deal with the Marlins to acquire second baseman Dee Gordon, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The return is not known at this point.

Weird move. Not sure where they are going with this. Would seem that likely pushes the idea of Ohtani DHing for them out. Apparently Gordon is going to play CF but that seems weird.

 

[beckdawg]

@CarrieMuskat
#Cubs Theo expects to touch base with both Arrieta's and Wade Davis' agents at Winter Meetings

 

[Parade_Rain]

So you are saying a person is stuck in a box and any type of physical training will not affect the bottom line?

At his age you won't see a dramatic increase in 60 times.

 

[DanTown]

Considering what Dee Gordon went for it's upsetting the Cubs didn't try and get in there. Feel he fit perfectly.

 

[beckdawg]

Considering what Dee Gordon went for it's upsetting the Cubs didn't try and get in there. Feel he fit perfectly.

To what end? I can only presume your idea is Gordon looks like a leadoff hitter and the cubs don't have an obvious candidate to lead off. But first of all he's not cheap. He's owed $37.9 mil over he next 3 years($10.8/$13.3/$13.8 with a $14 mil option almost certain to trigger). And assuming that isn't enough reason to ignore him, he plays 2B. The cubs have 3 guys who arguably already could start at 2B. If the idea is you're going to copy Seattle and play him in CF, he's never played a single inning in the OF professionally. So, for all Seattle knows he could be quite bad at reading the ball and taking bad routes. And in terms of a hitter, he's got a decent average and OBP but that's literally it. His career wRC+ is 93. Baez last year was 98. Happ last year was 113. Almora's career is 102.

I'll leave the defense of Baez to others. I've never been his biggest supporter. But Almora is a career .292/.330/.448 hitter. Gordon is a career .293/.329/.367. And obviously Happ look to be a pretty decent offensive force. And let's not forget that Gordon has already been popped for PED usage. That's not the kind of character the front office brings into the club. I mean they immediately got rid of Montero for going on a mini-rant. Not saying they were wrong to do so but just that think PED usage is a much bigger deal. There's just not much there for me to be all that concerned with another team getting him. Tossing another $11 mil onto the 2018 books for a position player isn't really where they need to be spending their money. I think honestly you could leave that as the only rationale you need. ''

I'd honestly just give Almora a chance to lead off. He's a career .320/.377/.503 hitter(131 wRC+ over 168 PAs) vs LHP and .275/.300/.415(84 wRC+ 272 PAs) vs RHP. But if you look at how that occurred in terms of RHP, you'll see it's largely because early in 2017 he struggled. In 2016 he hit .286/.324/.400(93 wRC+) over 74 PAs. In the second half of last year he hit .326/.331/.519 vs RHP over 135 PAs(117 WRC+). What is killing that career marks it he fact he hit .194/.242/.258 in April this year and .194/.219/.226 in May with a 30 and 13 wRC+ respectively. But clearly he started figuring things out by June(.255/.300/.383) and the last 3 months were good(.350/.318/.450, .296/.296/.370, .375/.375/.844). Obviously you'd like to see him take a few more walks vs RHP but I think that'll come with time. For example, he has a 8.3% walk rate vs LHP. And I think vs some really tough RHP you may move him down in the lineup some. But overall I really think people underrate him.

 

[CSF77]

At his age you won't see a dramatic increase in 60 times.

He trained his body to be a line backer in college. He was carrying the weight of a football player.

Now the most important thing with him in the OF is reaction time and technique. Most players can get by with speed. But if you look at Almora he is near perfect with his instincts and technique. Those two abilities give him greater range.

Schwarber pretty much catches every thing in his range but there are 3 ways to increase range.

1. First step. Which is a combo of reaction time and explosiveness. Which from some of the training instagrams is the drills he has been doing.

2. Route path. This can be tought. Sori was tought I his and if he can learn...

3. Increasing top end excelleration. And to be honest this bit is pretty easy to achieve. Not saying he will be a speedster but better than he was.


Now as far as a lead off. Let’s face it Theo is from the OBA school. Sb = decrease in OBA. Even if you are steeling at a 60% clip that decreases OBA by 40%.

That link I showed the was #7 in being able to advance a extra base. Now I would like to see some of this metric for 2017. You would figure it would be lower with his knee recovery but still a interesting metric regardless.

Other than that it has to do with him getting over the shift. That will be his biggest challenge and losing weight really has nothing to do with it. Maybe make him a bunt threat if his times to first increase.

 

[CSF77]

To what end? I can only presume your idea is Gordon looks like a leadoff hitter and the cubs don't have an obvious candidate to lead off. But first of all he's not cheap. He's owed $37.9 mil over he next 3 years($10.8/$13.3/$13.8 with a $14 mil option almost certain to trigger). And assuming that isn't enough reason to ignore him, he plays 2B. The cubs have 3 guys who arguably already could start at 2B. If the idea is you're going to copy Seattle and play him in CF, he's never played a single inning in the OF professionally. So, for all Seattle knows he could be quite bad at reading the ball and taking bad routes. And in terms of a hitter, he's got a decent average and OBP but that's literally it. His career wRC+ is 93. Baez last year was 98. Happ last year was 113. Almora's career is 102.

I'll leave the defense of Baez to others. I've never been his biggest supporter. But Almora is a career .292/.330/.448 hitter. Gordon is a career .293/.329/.367. And obviously Happ look to be a pretty decent offensive force. And let's not forget that Gordon has already been popped for PED usage. That's not the kind of character the front office brings into the club. I mean they immediately got rid of Montero for going on a mini-rant. Not saying they were wrong to do so but just that think PED usage is a much bigger deal. There's just not much there for me to be all that concerned with another team getting him. Tossing another $11 mil onto the 2018 books for a position player isn't really where they need to be spending their money. I think honestly you could leave that as the only rationale you need. ''

I'd honestly just give Almora a chance to lead off. He's a career .320/.377/.503 hitter(131 wRC+ over 168 PAs) vs LHP and .275/.300/.415(84 wRC+ 272 PAs) vs RHP. But if you look at how that occurred in terms of RHP, you'll see it's largely because early in 2017 he struggled. In 2016 he hit .286/.324/.400(93 wRC+) over 74 PAs. In the second half of last year he hit .326/.331/.519 vs RHP over 135 PAs(117 WRC+). What is killing that career marks it he fact he hit .194/.242/.258 in April this year and .194/.219/.226 in May with a 30 and 13 wRC+ respectively. But clearly he started figuring things out by June(.255/.300/.383) and the last 3 months were good(.350/.318/.450, .296/.296/.370, .375/.375/.844). Obviously you'd like to see him take a few more walks vs RHP but I think that'll come with time. For example, he has a 8.3% walk rate vs LHP. And I think vs some really tough RHP you may move him down in the lineup some. But overall I really think people underrate him.

Him leading off full time. IDK honestly. I get him vs lefties as he wrecks them but his OBA vs RHSP. Ya it was .331 but in limited action. Every day with the most PA’s and not walking much really makes him a slave to BABIP.

I’m pretty old school with his type. He is a contact hitter and they excel with baserunners to move. Lead off hitters have to go deep into counts and drag out AB’s. Let the hitters get their timing down and get the starters pitch count ticking.

Almora is a hitter. Pure and simple. He is not a lead off.

 

[beckdawg]

Him leading off full time. IDK honestly. I get him vs lefties as he wrecks them but his OBA vs RHSP. Ya it was .331 but in limited action. Every day with the most PA’s and not walking much really makes him a slave to BABIP.

I’m pretty old school with his type. He is a contact hitter and they excel with baserunners to move. Lead off hitters have to go deep into counts and drag out AB’s. Let the hitters get their timing down and get the starters pitch count ticking.

Almora is a hitter. Pure and simple. He is not a lead off.

Like I said, I'm not sure you'd bat him lead off against really strong RHP but I think vs say a #3 or #4 RHP there's not that much concern. He killed RHP in the second half last year(326/.331/.519). So, clearly he can hit them. I'm guessing that may be slightly deceiving because Maddon had been semi-protecting him in the line up but that's essentially what I'm arguing you would do anyways. I mean with that sort of protection Almora's a career .292/.330/.448 hitter. That's obviously not Fowler levels of lead off but it's pretty damn good. But sure if you're up against Scherzer then I might consider batting Happ or Heyward lead off and push Almora down in the line up.

 

[SilenceS]

Its off season. Schwarber will put on weight before spring training. Its the baseball rule. Get fat early and lose during the season.

As for Dee Gordon, no. Good lord, Baez and Russell are going to be something special. Stop being over the top.

Barring injury, which occured this year, I dont want another tandem up the middle in the entire league. These guys are going to make memories.

 

[TL1961]

Not a fan of Baez’ D?

Gold glove caliber at any IF position,but whatever....

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

Should Theo and Jed entertain the idea of signing and stashing Trevor Rosenthal? The Rays did that last year with Nathan Eovaldi and gave him a one-year MLB deal with a 2018 option. Obviously, he's probably going to miss most of 2018, if not all of it since he had the surgery in August. I think it would just be smart of them to offer him something like a one-year deal with an option or a two-year deal that way he can rehab at the team's facilities in hopes to get him back to full strength in 2019.

 

[DanTown]

To what end? I can only presume your idea is Gordon looks like a leadoff hitter and the cubs don't have an obvious candidate to lead off. But first of all he's not cheap. He's owed $37.9 mil over he next 3 years($10.8/$13.3/$13.8 with a $14 mil option almost certain to trigger). And assuming that isn't enough reason to ignore him, he plays 2B. The cubs have 3 guys who arguably already could start at 2B. If the idea is you're going to copy Seattle and play him in CF, he's never played a single inning in the OF professionally. So, for all Seattle knows he could be quite bad at reading the ball and taking bad routes. And in terms of a hitter, he's got a decent average and OBP but that's literally it. His career wRC+ is 93. Baez last year was 98. Happ last year was 113. Almora's career is 102.

I'll leave the defense of Baez to others. I've never been his biggest supporter. But Almora is a career .292/.330/.448 hitter. Gordon is a career .293/.329/.367. And obviously Happ look to be a pretty decent offensive force. And let's not forget that Gordon has already been popped for PED usage. That's not the kind of character the front office brings into the club. I mean they immediately got rid of Montero for going on a mini-rant. Not saying they were wrong to do so but just that think PED usage is a much bigger deal. There's just not much there for me to be all that concerned with another team getting him. Tossing another $11 mil onto the 2018 books for a position player isn't really where they need to be spending their money. I think honestly you could leave that as the only rationale you need. ''

I'd honestly just give Almora a chance to lead off. He's a career .320/.377/.503 hitter(131 wRC+ over 168 PAs) vs LHP and .275/.300/.415(84 wRC+ 272 PAs) vs RHP. But if you look at how that occurred in terms of RHP, you'll see it's largely because early in 2017 he struggled. In 2016 he hit .286/.324/.400(93 wRC+) over 74 PAs. In the second half of last year he hit .326/.331/.519 vs RHP over 135 PAs(117 WRC+). What is killing that career marks it he fact he hit .194/.242/.258 in April this year and .194/.219/.226 in May with a 30 and 13 wRC+ respectively. But clearly he started figuring things out by June(.255/.300/.383) and the last 3 months were good(.350/.318/.450, .296/.296/.370, .375/.375/.844). Obviously you'd like to see him take a few more walks vs RHP but I think that'll come with time. For example, he has a 8.3% walk rate vs LHP. And I think vs some really tough RHP you may move him down in the lineup some. But overall I really think people underrate him.

He's a very capable defender, he solves a leadoff problem, and if you platoon Happ/Almora in CF and then have Gordon vs RHP at 2B, you have Zobrist at RF/2B and then you have Kyle in LF as well. And then it frees up trading one of the SS for a pitcher either a high end reliever with control or a SP.

 

[beckdawg]

He's a very capable defender, he solves a leadoff problem, and if you platoon Happ/Almora in CF and then have Gordon vs RHP at 2B, you have Zobrist at RF/2B and then you have Kyle in LF as well. And then it frees up trading one of the SS for a pitcher either a high end reliever with control or a SP.

Just don't think that makes a ton of sense and you're adding a not-insubstantial amount of money.

 

[brett05]

Its off season. Schwarber will put on weight before spring training. Its the baseball rule. Get fat early and lose during the season.

I guess you missed the video. Kyle has done the opposite and gotten svelte in the offseason.

 

[Parade_Rain]

He trained his body to be a line backer in college. He was carrying the weight of a football player.

Now the most important thing with him in the OF is reaction time and technique. Most players can get by with speed. But if you look at Almora he is near perfect with his instincts and technique. Those two abilities give him greater range.

Schwarber pretty much catches every thing in his range but there are 3 ways to increase range.

1. First step. Which is a combo of reaction time and explosiveness. Which from some of the training instagrams is the drills he has been doing.

2. Route path. This can be tought. Sori was tought I his and if he can learn...

3. Increasing top end excelleration. And to be honest this bit is pretty easy to achieve. Not saying he will be a speedster but better than he was.


Now as far as a lead off. Let’s face it Theo is from the OBA school. Sb = decrease in OBA. Even if you are steeling at a 60% clip that decreases OBA by 40%.

That link I showed the was #7 in being able to advance a extra base. Now I would like to see some of this metric for 2017. You would figure it would be lower with his knee recovery but still a interesting metric regardless.

Other than that it has to do with him getting over the shift. That will be his biggest challenge and losing weight really has nothing to do with it. Maybe make him a bunt threat if his times to first increase.

Speed is genetic. He will get quicker first 10 yards with weight loss and some training. Top end will not increase much. Sorry. He is a fully grown male.

 

[CSF77]

Didn’t Dee get traded to Sea? I really don’t get this line of thinking.

On top end speed: I never trained in wind sprints myself. I trained for the 1.5 in the military for most part so I really can’t argue this.

Edit: I can see how a person has a set peak performance. But he was not trained for sprinting.

Our bodies adapt to the demands put on it

 

[DanTown]

Just don't think that makes a ton of sense and you're adding a not-insubstantial amount of money.

Zobrist is likely to retire in a year or be traded.
Baez/Russell is a waste of assets in terms of what you can play and get in a trade versus the luxury of depth.
Happ/Almora/Schwarber/Heyward makes a ton of sense as a platoon OF.
Gordon gives you a dynamic and leadoff guy against righties that balances your lineups. Against lefties, he's not a terrible option (especially weaker type lefties) and gives you value off the bench. He'd probably have a better wRC if the Cubs were more flexible than starting him every day and every matchup since he does better against righties.
The money is fairly decent for a guy who's been consistently a 3-4 fWAR player when on the field (which sans the steroid test has been quite a lot).
It takes a ton of pressure off Happ/Almora having to be the leadoff guys and instead allows them to bat lower in the order and be more comfortable and not get tough assignments.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Didn’t Dee get traded to Sea? I really don’t get this line of thinking.

On top end speed: I never trained in wind sprints myself. I trained for the 1.5 in the military for most part so I really can’t argue this.

Edit: I can see how a person has a set peak performance. But he was not trained for sprinting.

Our bodies adapt to the demands put on it

The idea of mentioning first 10 yards is because baseball people are finally coming around to the idea that straight 60 speed doesn't indicate best range or base stealing. Much is determined by quickness and the first 10 yards. Perfect Game has started tracking this for a purpose. Teams are starting to wonder why some of the best base stealers aren't the fastest players on the field.

I think it's important for Schwarber to lose some weight and become more agile. Who knows? He may be able to catch a little bit if he gets quicker, too. But...quickness and top end aren't the same.

 

[beckdawg]

Speed is genetic. He will get quicker first 10 yards with weight loss and some training. Top end will not increase much. Sorry. He is a fully grown male.

Are you suggesting he's Mike Gundy? He's a grown as man!