Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[CSF77]

The Avg is 25 mil but you front load. Honestly is worth 25 mil per. Lester 27.5 next year. 27.5 the following year and 10m in 2021.

John has put up 12.1 WAR over their time together. Jake 13.5. And 25 mil is not worth it? Seeing how WAR's going rate is 8 mil per he has avg 4.5 WAR per year or 36 mil. per. Honestly even if he lessens in WAR per year 25 mil is 3.125 WAR value.

Now on the Harper scenario...come on now be real for a minuet. 40 mil per? That will never happen. Kid is just using the Cubs to up the anti for the teams that will pay top dollar. Kid ain't stupid.

Seriously they are a tick under 140 mil and tax is 197. So there is no reason to sit on 57 mil short. That is why I would front load Jake. Pay off the chunk before Bryant starts to become a issue. I would even go with 30/30/25/20/20. Pay the man and sit at 20 mil per at the end. Or do something like Boras did with Max and pay him for 10 years post retirement. I wouldn't go there myself when you have 57 mil and cheap core hitters honestly but W/E.

Regardless all I'm going to say about it is Jake + Wade you get the #2 SP on the market. The #1 closer on the market. You lose no talent.

You trade for either you lose talent and gain payroll? Well is 57 mil not enough?

Looking at targets: Colome? Did he throw out the last pitch in a WS? no. Ya the numbers are pretty damn good but has he been there? Has he been on a play off team?

Nope. So just saying. Not saying he wouldn't be dominating but totally different animal ya know. Archer? 2 games in the pen in 2013.

I think it comes down to you lose to gain via trade. They have lost their farm already and now need to deplete their 25 man to attain something that they have 57 mil to spend on.

Sounds stupid right? Because it is.

 

[beckdawg]

No they didnt spend big money on the pen and look how that turned out, which was my point...

Im not saying their gonna go nuts , just think theyll add a couple solid relievers other then the closer

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I just don't think they value paying relievers. And I mean they aren't wrong. If the idea is that you want to match what the dodgers had in the pen I think going and spending a fair amount of money in FA isn't really the play. I mean they got Marrow for next to nothing and other than Jansen he was their best reliever. That's why I can see them giving Davis the money to return but I think they're going to go cheaper else where. They may sign a few guys for like 4-5 mil but I don't think you're going to be seeing them sign multiple guys over $8 mil.

 

[CSF77]

No they didnt spend big money on the pen and look how that turned out, which was my point...

Im not saying their gonna go nuts , just think theyll add a couple solid relievers other then the closer

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I don't think it is necessary.

Closer: open
LHSU: Wilson
RHSU: Edwards
Loogy: Alvarez
RH high leverage: Maples
RH MR: Strop
RH MR: Grimm
LHMR: Montgomery

That is 8 spots. Honestly you really have to have faith that Edwards and Wilson bounce back. Both were plain dominate before last year. Even then Wilson had a 2.68 ERA before the trade. You don't put up a 3.30 ERA over 316 IP and just lose your shit because the penstripes don't work for you?

So lets just say they figure it out and go back to their mean's. and honestly he had 35 BB. 19 with the Cubs over 17.2 IP. he had 16 in 40 IP up to that point and his highest was 30 in 60 IP. Who knows what happened but to think what we saw is what we have is ignorant.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think it is necessary.

Closer: open
LHSU: Wilson
RHSU: Edwards
Loogy: Alvarez
RH high leverage: Maples
RH MR: Strop
RH MR: Grimm
LHMR: Montgomery

That is 8 spots. Honestly you really have to have faith that Edwards and Wilson bounce back. Both were plain dominate before last year. Even then Wilson had a 2.68 ERA before the trade. You don't put up a 3.30 ERA over 316 IP and just lose your shit because the penstripes don't work for you?

So lets just say they figure it out and go back to their mean's. and honestly he had 35 BB. 19 with the Cubs over 17.2 IP. he had 16 in 40 IP up to that point and his highest was 30 in 60 IP. Who knows what happened but to think what we saw is what we have is ignorant.

Think this is largely accurate though I'd make a few tweaks. First I doubt Maples gets high leverage at least early in the year. Think you swap him and Strop or Strop with edwards and Edwards with Maples. Also, I think Grimm may not make the roster opening day. I could see them doing one of two things to replace grimm. One is to buy low on a duensing like buy(prob rh though) or I could see them trying to acquire someone(i've suggested Colome) and push some other guys a bit down. I wouldn't give up any of the A tier prospects but if you look at what the Brewers got for Thornburg from the Red Sox I think that's a fair package considering Colome and his numbers are really similar.

 

[Iceman2385]

The Avg is 25 mil but you front load. Honestly is worth 25 mil per. Lester 27.5 next year. 27.5 the following year and 10m in 2021.

John has put up 12.1 WAR over their time together. Jake 13.5. And 25 mil is not worth it? Seeing how WAR's going rate is 8 mil per he has avg 4.5 WAR per year or 36 mil. per. Honestly even if he lessens in WAR per year 25 mil is 3.125 WAR value.

Now on the Harper scenario...come on now be real for a minuet. 40 mil per? That will never happen. Kid is just using the Cubs to up the anti for the teams that will pay top dollar. Kid ain't stupid.

Seriously they are a tick under 140 mil and tax is 197. So there is no reason to sit on 57 mil short. That is why I would front load Jake. Pay off the chunk before Bryant starts to become a issue. I would even go with 30/30/25/20/20. Pay the man and sit at 20 mil per at the end. Or do something like Boras did with Max and pay him for 10 years post retirement. I wouldn't go there myself when you have 57 mil and cheap core hitters honestly but W/E.

Regardless all I'm going to say about it is Jake + Wade you get the #2 SP on the market. The #1 closer on the market. You lose no talent.

You trade for either you lose talent and gain payroll? Well is 57 mil not enough?

Looking at targets: Colome? Did he throw out the last pitch in a WS? no. Ya the numbers are pretty damn good but has he been there? Has he been on a play off team?

Nope. So just saying. Not saying he wouldn't be dominating but totally different animal ya know. Archer? 2 games in the pen in 2013.

I think it comes down to you lose to gain via trade. They have lost their farm already and now need to deplete their 25 man to attain something that they have 57 mil to spend on.

Sounds stupid right? Because it is.

If the rest of r offseason includes signing Shaw, trading Baez for Snell + Colome, and signing a cheap back up SS I'd say we would have enough money for Harper next year and it would still give this years team a legit chance at a World Series! To me Harper is a generational talent and is one of the few guys worth 400 mil.

I'd also bc ok if give up on signing Harper now and just keep r ML talent sign DArvish, Shaw and trade for Colome. Either scenario I'm happy. I don't want Wade. I wouldn't be mad if we signed Arrieta but I'd prefer DArvish.

 

[chibears55]

I don't think it is necessary.

Closer: open
LHSU: Wilson
RHSU: Edwards
Loogy: Alvarez
RH high leverage: Maples
RH MR: Strop
RH MR: Grimm
LHMR: Montgomery

That is 8 spots. Honestly you really have to have faith that Edwards and Wilson bounce back. Both were plain dominate before last year. Even then Wilson had a 2.68 ERA before the trade. You don't put up a 3.30 ERA over 316 IP and just lose your shit because the penstripes don't work for you?

So lets just say they figure it out and go back to their mean's. and honestly he had 35 BB. 19 with the Cubs over 17.2 IP. he had 16 in 40 IP up to that point and his highest was 30 in 60 IP. Who knows what happened but to think what we saw is what we have is ignorant.

All you did was replace Rondon and Duensing with Maples and Alvarez..

So you're still going into the season with a questionable pen, with no upgrade

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[CSF77]

Accually as a LOOGY all you are looking at is SO/9 and splits. High leverage just means strike out needed. Both guys are strike out specialists. What I wouldn’t do with either right now is put them into 1 inning roles. BB issues become magnified then.

On Grimm: I questioned it also but at the end of the day the cost is low and see if he can be fixed. He was effective in 2015. Basically he was the 7th inning guy. He has fallen off sense then.

Internally there is not a long list to replace him. Maybe Butler if you want a 2 inning MR and scrap the SP depth idea in AAA. Just spot start with him and Montgomery. Cory Black was the other guy but I haven’t heard where is is at post op

 

[CSF77]

All you did was replace Rondon and Duensing with Maples and Alvarez..

So you're still going into the season with a questionable pen, with no upgrade

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Here is your main point. => upgrade.

Define upgrade? Bring in some one else. Or improve what you have. The pen in general increased in B.B./9 last year. So the fired Bosio and hired Hickey with the mandate of getting BB/9 under control.

The pen has talent. What needs to be focused on is attacking the strike zone. The Dodgers exploited that weakness.

I personally am not majorly concerned with it. Rondon was going to make 6 mil and he is not worth that. Maples should be in a limited role and called in to get 1 guy. He is a fine replacement for him.

Duesing was replaced by Wilson last year. Alvarez is the 3rd lefty. He is a LOOGY which Wilson is not. His splits are better vs RH batters. So he fits a need. Get a tough lefty out.

That is just specializing the pen and giving Hickey tools to work with. They probably need a 2 inning righty more than Grimm honestly. So I can buy that.

I would look at it as job role vs name value. 2 inning pitcher. Strike out spec. Etc. it keeps it in perspective. Just looking at it from a name value increases payroll more than anythinf else

 

[anotheridiot]

Accually as a LOOGY all you are looking at is SO/9 and splits. High leverage just means strike out needed. Both guys are strike out specialists. What I wouldn’t do with either right now is put them into 1 inning roles. BB issues become magnified then.

On Grimm: I questioned it also but at the end of the day the cost is low and see if he can be fixed. He was effective in 2015. Basically he was the 7th inning guy. He has fallen off sense then.

Internally there is not a long list to replace him. Maybe Butler if you want a 2 inning MR and scrap the SP depth idea in AAA. Just spot start with him and Montgomery. Cory Black was the other guy but I haven’t heard where is is at post op

I don't know. They sent Grimm down to get control of his curve ball and throw it more, but then he fell in love with it. It is a good one, but its an out pitch, not a setup pitch. Fastball, slider then the hook.

I really don't know the deal with Bosio, his time off, his need for a project every year, I really never liked him much. I think Rossy should have gotten a lot more credit with the staff. Don't really know Hickey either, but at least I feel he and Joe might be on the same page, so it will fall more on the manager shedding blame for bad moves.

I think Tseng can end up being an effective closer if they wont let him start. You look at the pen and its hard stuff city. Teams tune up to that thru the 7th and 8th so a change of pace with those floater balls he throws would spin guys in the dirt. Just don't think they trust him.

 

[CSF77]

I’m more about the guy they picked from Pitt. He is known as a fixer and he can focus on that aspect. More tinkering and fixing.

Hickey is the staff manager. More of the every day grind

 

[Diehardfan]

I don't know. They sent Grimm down to get control of his curve ball and throw it more, but then he fell in love with it. It is a good one, but its an out pitch, not a setup pitch. Fastball, slider then the hook.

I really don't know the deal with Bosio, his time off, his need for a project every year, I really never liked him much. I think Rossy should have gotten a lot more credit with the staff. Don't really know Hickey either, but at least I feel he and Joe might be on the same page, so it will fall more on the manager shedding blame for bad moves.

I think Tseng can end up being an effective closer if they wont let him start. You look at the pen and its hard stuff city. Teams tune up to that thru the 7th and 8th so a change of pace with those floater balls he throws would spin guys in the dirt. Just don't think they trust him.

In theory, yes. But he throws the slider like 3% of the time....nowhere near enough. At this point, he's a two pitch pitcher and everyone knows it.

 

[chibears55]

Here we go
Plan B
and as i said it could be a bigger trade netting them both a SP and reliever

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cu...ll-star-pitchers-chris-archer-and-alex-colome

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[beckdawg]

Here we go
Plan B
and as i said it could be a bigger trade netting them both a SP and reliever

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cu...ll-star-pitchers-chris-archer-and-alex-colome

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Saw an interesting take on this. Since the Yankees now have stanton and the red sox are sure to add it's going to be difficult in the AL East. Some were suggesting full on rebuild for those teams as the play.

The thing with Colome is I don't think he'll be that expensive. His numbers and team control are quite similar to Thornburg who the Red Sox traded Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington, Yeison Coca and Travis Shaw in order to acquire. Coca is only 18 and was a recent top 30 IFA but not a big one. The cubs have several guys like him(not Ademan who's probably far too good to put in that role). Pennington is a pure reliever and is top 30 in MIL's system but as a pure reliever he has limited value. The meat of the deal is Shaw and Dubon. But Shaw as never a top 100 guy. I think someone like Caratini or Zagunis likely holds similar value. Dubon is a 50 grade guy who's #9 in milwalkee's system. So maybe you argue someone like Hatch to slot in for him.

Point here is I don't think Colome is going to cost you happ/baez/Schwarber or any of the big name pitchers in the cubs system. So, I can definitely see them finding a way to make that part of the deal work. I'm not entirely sure how you make Archer work. I think it would take one of those 3 previously mentioned though I'm still rather convinced they aren't moving Schwarber so it's likely just Baez/Happ plus both would appear to hold more trade value right now anyways. I think you'd then likely need one of the cubs top prospects(Ademan/Alzolay/Albertos/De La Cruz) though I think the first 2 are more likely includes. And I would imagine to make the deal actually happen you'd need a third piece worth Tampa's time. Someone like Hatch/DJ Wilson/Caratini....etc. And they would likely also get 1-2 guys who are not top 30 guys.

I think the Colome part is more likely than the Archer part but it wouldn't be "impossible" for the cubs to make both happen.

 

[Diehardfan]

Making dumbass deals like this will lead to the Cubs downfall....and it could happen rather quickly. First you're probably forced to break up your middle infield which looked to be set for years plus another good player or two....whoops, there goes any depth you might have had. For what? Two pitchers. In case no one noticed, pitchers get injured about 10 times more than any other position. Jerry Reinsdorf, of all people, once said he'd never give a pitcher a long term deal...at the time, I had to agree with him. Of course, he was forced into wavering on that proclamation but given the incredible amount of injuries to their arms, elbows, wrists etc. it's just not worth the investment. I don't give a **** how long the guy is affordable...it don't mean shit if he's affordably sitting on the DL. Do what you can in free agency and **** the trades for pitching....even if you can't get what you need, you will still keep your team in order for future runs. I don't want to go back to the loveable loser crap....making stupid trades for pitchers is a fast track to disaster.

 

[CSF77]

Archer + Colome

This would cost:

Baez. They need a 2B
Schwarber: they need a DH

after that you have to toss in the chips. Which means Adelman, Alozay, and either Hatch or De la Cruz. Depends who they like better.

So it would end up 2 for 5. Seeing how 2 of the returns are MLB players it shouldn’t get too crazy.

Now at this point Happ is the starting LF and Zobrist is the starting 2B. They would have to get a F/A SS back up. 4th OF they have Zag that can play the corners.

They can do it and they would have the rotation locked up for a long time thus selling some of the closer arms.

I still believe it makes more sense to sign Jake and Wade but this is the best trade they could go.

I would sign Cain myself. The savings in that trade would be best used towards him and shutting the door on a lead off problem.

 

[Iceman2385]

Making dumbass deals like this will lead to the Cubs downfall....and it could happen rather quickly. First you're probably forced to break up your middle infield which looked to be set for years plus another good player or two....whoops, there goes any depth you might have had. For what? Two pitchers. In case no one noticed, pitchers get injured about 10 times more than any other position. Jerry Reinsdorf, of all people, once said he'd never give a pitcher a long term deal...at the time, I had to agree with him. Of course, he was forced into wavering on that proclamation but given the incredible amount of injuries to their arms, elbows, wrists etc. it's just not worth the investment. I don't give a **** how long the guy is affordable...it don't mean shit if he's affordably sitting on the DL. Do what you can in free agency and **** the trades for pitching....even if you can't get what you need, you will still keep your team in order for future runs. I don't want to go back to the loveable loser crap....making stupid trades for pitchers is a fast track to disaster.

Ur right pitchers get hurt more then hitters, which is why don't need so many hitters. Why do we need Schwarbs, Almora, JHey, Happ, Baez, addy, KB, Zobs, Contreras, and Rizz that's 10 starters for 8 spots. Hell u can throw TLS in there as possibly being good enough to start. Not to mention backups similar to JJ like we signed last year. If hitters don't get hurt why do we need so many? And if pitchers get hurt so much wouldn't it be wise to have more good pitching depth?

Top notch pitchers make a huge difference in the playoffs, of course there a risk but u still have to get pitching. I think r position player depth will be fine if we trade 1 of them away, if we do trade a ML league piece hopefully we pick the right one to trade. Personally the one I would trade is Baez. U say just use FA does that mean sign Cobb, he hurts r financial flexibility and he's a bigger injury risk then Archer. Plus he's not as good. U could say sign DArvish, but now he's a huge financial risk which would probably take us out of the Harper sweepstakes next year.

My question to u is if no trade, who do u suggest we sign? I'm ok keeping r players and sign DArvish, but I'd prefer a trade.

 

[Iceman2385]

Archer + Colome

This would cost:

Baez. They need a 2B
Schwarber: they need a DH

after that you have to toss in the chips. Which means Adelman, Alozay, and either Hatch or De la Cruz. Depends who they like better.

So it would end up 2 for 5. Seeing how 2 of the returns are MLB players it shouldn’t get too crazy.

Now at this point Happ is the starting LF and Zobrist is the starting 2B. They would have to get a F/A SS back up. 4th OF they have Zag that can play the corners.

They can do it and they would have the rotation locked up for a long time thus selling some of the closer arms.

I still believe it makes more sense to sign Jake and Wade but this is the best trade they could go.

I would sign Cain myself. The savings in that trade would be best used towards him and shutting the door on a lead off problem.

Personsally I don't want to trade Schwarbs. I guess I would consider Baez and Happ for Archer and Colome. I'd rather just see what kind of pitcher I could get for just one ML piece either Baez or Happ. I'd rather get a guy less proven then archer and get a guy like snell if it means we get to keep Schwarbs. I'd rather do Baez for Snell + Colome.

 

[CSF77]

Happ is a tweener that honestly performed well over any projection. He still struck out 36% of the time. Honestly it comes down to what TB needs and they need a starting 2B and they need to replace their DH on the cheap. Schwarber is 30 plus HR’s. Happ was projected at 20 per. I don’t expect him to be a 30 HR guy year in and out. This might be a one time thing.

So honestly Happ is a Maddon type of guy. Move him around as needed. Gives some line up power. But honestly I would still talk to Cain’s agent after that deal went through. Archer and Col add 8 mil. So still under 150 mil. Cain would cost what per? 16-20?

 

[Omeletpants]

I'm betting that Happ has a better career than Russel, Baez, Almora and one trick pony, Schwarber

Give him 575 AB and he will hit 30 HRS

 

[Iceman2385]

I'm betting that Happ has a better career than Russel, Baez, Almora and one trick pony, Schwarber

Give him 575 AB and he will hit 30 HRS

At the very worst Schwarbs is a 2 trick pony, Homeruns and ability to walk. On the positive side Schwarbs has lost weight this offseason and seems determined to improve his defense. Plus he's anxious to prove he's a hitter not just s slugger. I still have a lot faith in schwarber.

Happ showed more swing n miss then I would have liked, but it was his first time in the bigs. He was projected in the minors to have a decent hit tool, like 270ish, if he can do that with his plate approach he could be solid. Plus, he showed more power than expected. His defense isn't great, but I think he will be an average corner outfielder or 2nd basemen w seasoning and his athleticism. If prefer not see him CF regularly tho. Overall, I was impressed by Happ I'd only trade him if I really liked the return.

Baez i'm not very high on. I just don't see how he improves his plate approach and if his batting average slips it could get really ugly for him. Obv he's a valuable player, but he's the guy I'm most comfortable trading.