Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[Omeletpants]

You do know it 2017 and with all the "sources" there are nowadays ..
Nothing stays quiet and secret

Nonsense

 

[CSF77]

Pretty sure a offer was made to Yu, Davis and Cobb.

Cobb is asking 5 mil over his market value per year. He is a 4/60 guy that is looking at 4/80 to 5/100. Which is Shark type cash for your #4 starter.

I’m not sure what they offered Yu. I’m guessing he is valued at 5/125 to 6/150. But you have to guess that they are weighing all of the offers on the table.

Now Lackey is really not depressing if you think of it. I would see it as a non move to be able to make a move towards Harper next year. That way the rotation would be Lester/Q/Hendricks/Smyly/Chatwood then they push Harper into RF and if Heyward sticks he moves to CF.

So I would take it as keeping payroll flexible and not locked into puff contracts just to appease fans.

Now Maples had 100 SO combined last year over 63 IP. That didn’t include 11 SO in 5.1 IP in the majors. He only got lit up 1 game. Rest of his games he was striking every one out.

To not be excited by his potential is pretty strange to me. Sure he is high risk but he has a tool set that few possess.

 

[beckdawg]

And no, i wasnt expecting Epstein to overpay him..
I was hoping theyd come to a reasonable agreement.

My point was basically the only way you get him is to overpay. Theo doesn't strike me as a penny pinching type given how they typically handle arbitration cases. If they are interested in someone which in the case of Davis seems they at least some what were, I full expect they made him a reasonable offer. The issue is a "reasonable" offer wasn't going to sign him. If they offered him 4 years $60 mil I doubt he takes that given he got 3 years $52 mil. I'm guessing theo and company made an offer that was fair and drew a line at that. Colorado crossed that clearly and that's why he signed there. But I highly doubt it was as if the cubs offered him like idk $13 mil AAV.

 

[chibears55]

My point was basically the only way you get him is to overpay. Theo doesn't strike me as a penny pinching type given how they typically handle arbitration cases. If they are interested in someone which in the case of Davis seems they at least some what were, I full expect they made him a reasonable offer. The issue is a "reasonable" offer wasn't going to sign him. If they offered him 4 years $60 mil I doubt he takes that given he got 3 years $52 mil. I'm guessing theo and company made an offer that was fair and drew a line at that. Colorado crossed that clearly and that's why he signed there. But I highly doubt it was as if the cubs offered him like idk $13 mil AAV.

Have to think if cubs offered an exta year with more total but just 2 less annually, he would of taken that to be with a better championship caliber team...

Im gonna guess if any offer was made it was for 2 or 3 yrs and less money for him to choose the Rockies over Cubs ...



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[DanTown]

You do know it 2017 and with all the "sources" there are nowadays ..
Nothing stays quiet and secret

If Cubs or any teams made offers, you bet the farm that it going to get leaked so other teams will know to get them to up their offers...


And if we are to assume they did make a secret offer, that it not close to what pitcher A B or C looking for and or the cubs aren't their team of choice...


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The Cubs have probably made offers for all the pitchers on the market but the prices are below what the agent is saying so the agent isn't going to leak that information to the papers. There is only side of a negotiation who leaks offers and that's agents trying to build up a market and the price on their guys. So when you see "Alex Cobb wants 20 million" that doesn't mean the Cubs didn't offer him a contract; it means that the Cubs didn't offer Cobb a contract at 20 million AAV so the agent didn't leak to the papers "well we're looking for 20 million AAV but we only have offers for 15 million". That's stupid.

 

[chibears55]

The Cubs have probably made offers for all the pitchers on the market but the prices are below what the agent is saying so the agent isn't going to leak that information to the papers. There is only side of a negotiation who leaks offers and that's agents trying to build up a market and the price on their guys. So when you see "Alex Cobb wants 20 million" that doesn't mean the Cubs didn't offer him a contract; it means that the Cubs didn't offer Cobb a contract at 20 million AAV so the agent didn't leak to the papers "well we're looking for 20 million AAV but we only have offers for 15 million". That's stupid.

I agree and my point..

They either didnt make offers or made offers that not even close to what players are looking for...

At the start we heard about Cobb and how he wanted to be a cub...
That died off quickly and they signed Chatwood...most likely because Cobb looking for a big pay out..

Then it was Ohtani and well they didnt have much of a chance there given what he wanted, the west coast...

Now it Darvish, supposedly they made no offer after their meeting...
So, we can either believe that or believe that their offer wasnt even in the neighborhood of what Darvish is looking for and wasnt worth mentioning ..

Supposedly Arrieta back in the fold now but unless he willing to come down on years he looking for , that going nowhere..


So, what left?

Wait and see if someone comes down on what their asking for?
Risk getting noone

Try and find a trade partner?


Find a lesser FA and hope for the best?

Stay in house and look for a deadline deal?


They needed 2 SP, one on low end and one on high end..
They got the low end, cant seem to get anything going on the high end

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[DanTown]

I agree and my point..

They either didnt make offers or made offers that not even close to what players are looking for...

At the start we heard about Cobb and how he wanted to be a cub...
That died off quickly and they signed Chatwood...most likely because Cobb looking for a big pay out..

Then it was Ohtani and well they didnt have much of a chance there given what he wanted, the west coast...

Now it Darvish, supposedly they made no offer after their meeting...
So, we can either believe that or believe that their offer wasnt even in the neighborhood of what Darvish is looking for and wasnt worth mentioning ..

Supposedly Arrieta back in the fold now but unless he willing to come down on years he looking for , that going nowhere..


So, what left?

Wait and see if someone comes down on what their asking for?
Risk getting noone

Try and find a trade partner?


Find a lesser FA and hope for the best?

Stay in house and look for a deadline deal?


They needed 2 SP, one on low end and one on high end..
They got the low end, cant seem to get anything going on the high end

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Is there a reason they shouldn't let the market lower for pitchers? What does it matter? It's December 31, we're nearly two months from going to spring training. Is there any difference between signing a guy today or signing a guy in six weeks? What does the organization care about the date instead of the money they spend?

 

[chibears55]

Is there a reason they shouldn't let the market lower for pitchers? What does it matter? It's December 31, we're nearly two months from going to spring training. Is there any difference between signing a guy today or signing a guy in six weeks? What does the organization care about the date instead of the money they spend?

Sure if you wanna risk player signing elsewhere...
Unless they have a trade in mind for a TOR type starter..
Darvish Arrieta and Cobb are the only TOR type available now..

So even if their price and years drop some, there other teams out there that waiting too and may be willing to go a little higher then what cubs are...
So there that risk

I think i mentioned this but Im not worried or concerned about getting it done now, im just wondering if their really trying to get something done with any of these guys or what their plan is because every week it changes on who their looking at and we havent heard anything in regards of legit offers or intetest from players...

We normally hear something but it been unusually quiet on both ends and as far as it being January..
Usually players want to get deals done by now so they know where and have time to relocate their families before ST starts


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[Omeletpants]

Stop freaking out and get off the ledge

 

[chibears55]

Stop freaking out and get off the ledge

Lol...

Who freaking out?

I made a comment, others are responding and asking questions and their thoughts..

Im responding back with my thoughts

Far from "freaking out "..
It called having a civil conversation
You should try it

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[DanTown]

Sure if you wanna risk player signing elsewhere...
Unless they have a trade in mind for a TOR type starter..
Darvish Arrieta and Cobb are the only TOR type available now..

So even if their price and years drop some, there other teams out there that waiting too and may be willing to go a little higher then what cubs are...
So there that risk

I think i mentioned this but Im not worried or concerned about getting it done now, im just wondering if their really trying to get something done with any of these guys or what their plan is because every week it changes on who their looking at and we havent heard anything in regards of legit offers or intetest from players...

We normally hear something but it been unusually quiet on both ends and as far as it being January..
Usually players want to get deals done by now so they know where and have time to relocate their families before ST starts


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It's not as if the Cubs are the only team not participating in FA; there has been only one deal with AAV above 18 million and that was Santana. Of the ESPN top 15 FA, only four have signed. The entire market is cooled due to the massive FA next year.

 

[chibears55]

It's not as if the Cubs are the only team not participating in FA; there has been only one deal with AAV above 18 million and that was Santana. Of the ESPN top 15 FA, only four have signed. The entire market is cooled due to the massive FA next year.

I get that...

Again, im not sitting here saying why havent they made a move yet...

Im just wondering what their plan is because all we hear week after week is them interested in this guy then that guy..

I just hope they dont miss out on one of the 3 TOR type..

I personally don't want them going into 2018 with a down grade of a rotation from 2017 and not much of a change in what was a disappointing bullpen..

I like the Chatwood signing as an upgrade or equal to Lackey...
Now im just waiting and hoping for same on Arrieta replacement..

I do like the additions of Morrow Alvarez and Cishek as replacement for Rondon Duensing and Uehara .
Now id like to see someone that can fill Davis role..


I can care less on what keeping other teams from grabbing guys, i just want to see the cubs get the guys they want to make them better...


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[CSF77]

it feels like posturing right now. Crew is kicking the tires on Cobb ATM. No word it there is a real interest vs checking all pitchers.

If I had to guess on a over pay it would be either the Crew or the Cards. They have to beat the Cubs to get in.

Col were a WC and honestly have to deal with Azl/LAD/SFG. All 3 should be competitive so they went full throttle. Their div is far better so the need is higher to stay viable.

Cubs on the other hand are the best in the central. Pretty much the same boat the Nats are in. I see both teams weighing themselves vs their rivals atm and will react to what they do vs trying to over load. Teams tend to add near the dead line based off of their season. Cubs choke again expect a deal.

So IMO there is not this glaring need to blow up budget unless Mil or Stl add a heavy weight F/A. Say MIL adds Jake. That requires a reaction. Add Cobb not so much. If anything they added 2-3 WAR and over paid for it and may not factor.

STL honestly under performed last year. Mil over achieved. Cubs ran the gauntlet to just get near to where the should have been. They lost Jake and Lackey but those 2 were a big part of the under achieving first half and their turn around 2nd halves fueled the 2nd. If there was one thing that caused the turn around it was trading for Q. That point on every thing went in sync.

The right move is signing Yu and if they have to go up to 170 mil they should. He impacts the team the most. But I honestly believe that they are offering fair market and a year pack that they want and are not budging because they are the best team in the NLC.

 

[chibears55]

it feels like posturing right now. Crew is kicking the tires on Cobb ATM. No word it there is a real interest vs checking all pitchers.

If I had to guess on a over pay it would be either the Crew or the Cards. They have to beat the Cubs to get in.

Col were a WC and honestly have to deal with Azl/LAD/SFG. All 3 should be competitive so they went full throttle. Their div is far better so the need is higher to stay viable.

Cubs on the other hand are the best in the central. Pretty much the same boat the Nats are in. I see both teams weighing themselves vs their rivals atm and will react to what they do vs trying to over load. Teams tend to add near the dead line based off of their season. Cubs choke again expect a deal.

So IMO there is not this glaring need to blow up budget unless Mil or Stl add a heavy weight F/A. Say MIL adds Jake. That requires a reaction. Add Cobb not so much. If anything they added 2-3 WAR and over paid for it and may not factor.

STL honestly under performed last year. Mil over achieved. Cubs ran the gauntlet to just get near to where the should have been. They lost Jake and Lackey but those 2 were a big part of the under achieving first half and their turn around 2nd halves fueled the 2nd. If there was one thing that caused the turn around it was trading for Q. That point on every thing went in sync.

The right move is signing Yu and if they have to go up to 170 mil they should. He impacts the team the most. But I honestly believe that they are offering fair market and a year pack that they want and are not budging because they are the best team in the NLC.

Thing is, they wait to see what Cards and Brewers do.. They could end up with none of the 3

Say Yankees want Darvish, Brewers sign Cobb , Cards sign Jake

What left?

If theyre waiting to see who bends first, they might come out of it empty handed..

Then what ?

Oh well... guess we just wait and see how it all unfolds, i just hope the cubs don't end up on short end of this

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[TL1961]

THEY'RE

If THEY'RE waiting....

They are = they're. Not their. Or there.

If THEY'RE waiting.....

Phew! OK. Better now. Meds.......

 

[CSF77]

Thing is, they wait to see what Cards and Brewers do.. They could end up with none of the 3

Say Yankees want Darvish, Brewers sign Cobb , Cards sign Jake

What left?

If theyre waiting to see who bends first, they might come out of it empty handed..

Then what ?

Oh well... guess we just wait and see how it all unfolds, i just hope the cubs don't end up on short end of this

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Yanks have lux tax issues going on.

Cards have Reyes returning.

Crew may not see Jimmy Nelson all season long. That leaves Zach Davies (IE Kyle Hendricks 2.0) and Chase Anderson (equal to Cobb)

Over all the Crew have the largest need going on right now and they are a team that I would believe to meet Boras' demands. When you lose your ace and your best starter is Hendricks and a 89 MPH fastball you are having issues going up against the Cubs.

The Cards have a ace on staff and another incoming with 2 MOR in place. A young arm that showed promise. The need is really not great. I could see them going after Reed or Holland IMO as their closer situation is Gregerson ATM.

Now if they use Reyes as the closer next year and it might be wise honestly then I believe they should look into a lefty vs stacking RH in the rotation.

So either team could go after Jake or Yu but Mil is more desperate out of the two and Stl would be wiser to add a lefty.

 

[CSF77]

One of the reasons behind the lack of free agent action could be that teams are simply more cautious about the risk of spending big on a veteran player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines. Of the 14 current players on free agent deals with a $20MM average annual value and worth more than $100MM in total, only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester seem like clear wins for their teams, while the other 12 players range from questionable investments to outright busts. Sherman proposes that players should be allowed to become free agents after just four years of service time, arguing that the current free agent setup is “a flawed system” that doesn’t properly compensate players through their prime years.

Pretty interesting quote. We are seeing players now locked up under control for 7 years of team control. By the time the avg player is free to get paid he is 30 on avg and heading down hill. Now take it at a 4 year control period with no arb years that puts that same player at 26 (like Heyward). That becomes more likely of a team locking up that player for 10 years where those years would compas their whole peak years.

Right now we are seeing players over pricing their market values due to their shorter earnings windows.

 

[beckdawg]

If the yankees "wanted" Darvish they wouldn't have gave CC $10 mil. While plans can obviously change, they have 5 starters right now with CC, Gray, Montgomery, Severino and Tanaka. The entire point of signing CC rather than put money toward Darvish was to stay under the luxury tax. If they felt they could save another $15 mil in some other way they wouldn't have gave $10 to a 37 year old CC. Now maybe a trade materializes for Ellsbury and they can save some money that way but again if they thought that was likely there was no reason to jump the market on CC. If for whatever reason it does occur then sure I wouldn't be surprised to see them go after Darvish especially if he's at a reduced rate. But to sit here today and suggest that they are a likely front runner is unlikely.

As for the Brewers, their opening day payroll the past 2 years has been $63 mil and they've never gone over $104 mil. They already sit roughly at $72 mil. Could they feasibly add Cobb? Maybe but they already signed Gallardo and Chacin to go with Nelson, Anderson and Davies. They also have Junior Guerra who was good for them in 2016. They are another team that if the right situation presents itself may do something but I don't see them jumping the market.

As for the Cards, they already have Wainwright, Martinez, Reyes, Wacha, and Weaver. They also have Jack Flaherty who's a decent prospect. I haven't heard anything with regard to them signing pitching and unless you're suggesting they trade some of that for Machado or Donaldson(rumors I have heard), there's no need for Arrieta/Cobb/Darvish.

Long story short, the reason the pitching market isn't moving is there's very little demand out there. Colorado has basically been the only team signing relievers other than the cubs. No one else has given more than $20 mil total in a deal to anyone. If you add in Philly who were more mid tier reliever hunters no one has signed a deal worth more than $15. In terms of starters, only Chatwood to the cubs and minor to the Rangers has netted over $20 mil.

You hear things like such and such team is sniffing around but the way deals actually get done is when either A) the FA realizes the offers he has are the best he can get or B) some team decides to over pay the general market. At this point why would any team do B? At this point in the offseason in terms of starters you still have Darvish(espn's #1 FA), Arrieta(#4), Cobb(#8), Lynn(#16), Jaime Garcia(#21), Cashner(#34) and Vargas(#35) who all likely are #4 or better starters and you also have Lackey(#44), Brett Anderson(#43) and Hellickson(#50) who could likely be #5's. In terms of relievers, you still have Holland and Reed and most of the relief starved teams have filled needs.

Think it ultimately comes down to this, how many legit playoff teams need a #1-2 starter if we're talking about Arrieta/Darvish? LA doesn't. NYY have 5 starters already and a luxury tax issue. Boston is after hitting not pitching. Cleveland can't afford anything. I think you can make a case for Minny. I think maybe if you squint you can make a cast for Houston. Arizona had a good rotation last year and are adding back Miller. Washington has no need for starters. Long story short, you basically have the cubs, Minny and then you have to look for middling teams who hope to bounce into the playoffs this year. But often that's more a hopeful thing than a thing teams actively pursue. For example, Milwaukee was essentially that last year and did nothing with regard to pitching.

At this point I'd be rather shocked if the cubs don't end up with Darvish. In my opinion the only reason it hasn't happened is likely he wants more than the cubs are offering and is trying to use Minny to drive up the price and the cubs have yet to budge. But we're in January. That tactic only works for another few weeks. And frankly it's risky to play that much longer because if the cubs go another direction he may end up getting less than they are offering now.

 

[chibears55]

Pretty interesting quote. We are seeing players now locked up under control for 7 years of team control. By the time the avg player is free to get paid he is 30 on avg and heading down hill. Now take it at a 4 year control period with no arb years that puts that same player at 26 (like Heyward). That becomes more likely of a team locking up that player for 10 years where those years would compas their whole peak years.

Right now we are seeing players over pricing their market values due to their shorter earnings windows.

I saw this coming when cubs started tanking and headed towards their rebuild and remember thinking and saying this was the direction they needed to go because of seeing teams like the mets etc. tying up their rookies with 6-7 yrs of control and looking ahead and noticing there werent many future FAs that was going to be available to build around and do quick fixes..
ones that were going to be available in future are going to already be hitting 30 and for most part, their better years behind them or are more of the less attractive FAs..

Seeing the top young players being held back for that extra 7th yr now is going to be the norm around the league and having 27 28 YO top tier FAs are going to be minimal to non existent...

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[CSF77]

I saw this coming when cubs started tanking and headed towards their rebuild and remember thinking and saying this was the direction they needed to go because of seeing teams like the mets etc. tying up their rookies with 6-7 yrs of control and looking ahead and noticing there werent many future FAs that was going to be available to build around and do quick fixes..
ones that were going to be available in future are going to already be hitting 30 and for most part, their better years behind them or are more of the less attractive FAs..

Seeing the top young players being held back for that extra 7th yr now is going to be the norm around the league and having 27 28 YO top tier FAs are going to be minimal to non existent...

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I’m pretty sure it would change the dynamic of the current system.

Currently small market sells on year 4-5 of control to restock. They don’t want to pay the scaling prices via arb.

But getting rid of Arb and cutting team control to 4 years. The extension presses kept intact so a team can still extend and flip which may end up the norm.

Honestly I believe owners would be mixed. Big market would love it due to gaining access to younger players that they just have pay for. Small market would get wrecked due to not being able to flip and replenish and compete with the bigger markets.

One way of fixing this is changing the draft process. Not making order and allotment based off of standing but via market share.

So instead of all of these competitive balance rules they toss them out and the whole Arb prosses in general. Draft position and draft pool are based off of revenues. Which makes more sense as it attacks the core issue directly.

A large market can afford to buy a team a small market depends on self developed. So gear the system to benifit both.

The union would lose Arb but would gain much more.

I believe it would be good for the game and do away from the “tanking” mentality which is bad for the sport.