Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

So bleachernation had a post about the yankees thinking they can get darvish for 5 years $80-90 mil. First off LOL. Second off, if they are suggesting $16-18 AAV is his value there's almost no way I'm seeing he gets $25 mil+. Third off, if the cubs were to get him for 4-5 years at $23-24 mil that'd be a really good value in my eyes.

 

[anotheridiot]

Heyward was going to be 26 and had put up 27.8 wins over 6 years or 4.63 wins per year. He would have expected value of roughly $37 mil AAV. He got 8/$184 or $23 AAV. Even if you discount him heavily because of his bat prior to knowing what we know now, you could reasonably suggest that he would have been worth over $30 mil annually.

I did not bring Heyward up with this since it was just about the top paid pitchers in a free agent year.

 

[anotheridiot]

So bleachernation had a post about the yankees thinking they can get darvish for 5 years $80-90 mil. First off LOL. Second off, if they are suggesting $16-18 AAV is his value there's almost no way I'm seeing he gets $25 mil+. Third off, if the cubs were to get him for 4-5 years at $23-24 mil that'd be a really good value in my eyes.

Well if nobody else is jumping in at either of these bargains something is wrong. Is everyone going to be in on Harper and Kershaw?

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Hi all, new to the forum. I'm thinking the Cole deal takes the Astros out of the Darvish/Arrieta sweepstakes, and the arrogant Yankees figuring players should sign with them for less money just because they are the Yankees is a total non-starter. But I have also heard Darvish prefers not to play in a cold weather city with an outdoor stadium. Anyone think he'll accept less money to sign with Texas or Milwaukee due to the weather factor? Or will the money win out, do you think?

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Another question, here -- if the Cubs get Darvish/Arrieta on a 5-year deal and add $25 million to the payroll, what with KB's raise plus the other arb-avoidance deals, that leaves them committed to no money for a closer upgrade this year, right? If they wanted to go in on Harper next year, even with the increase in the luxury tax cap, do they have any payroll rolling off in 2019, or would they have to dump payroll to get in on Bryce? While the close friendship between he and KB might give the Cubs an edge on him, if we have to dump payroll, we'd have to find someone who wants to buy Heyward's entire remaining contract, right? And odds on that are slim and none unless he has a 5+ win year, I would imagine...

 

[beckdawg]

Hi all, new to the forum. I'm thinking the Cole deal takes the Astros out of the Darvish/Arrieta sweepstakes, and the arrogant Yankees figuring players should sign with them for less money just because they are the Yankees is a total non-starter. But I have also heard Darvish prefers not to play in a cold weather city with an outdoor stadium. Anyone think he'll accept less money to sign with Texas or Milwaukee due to the weather factor? Or will the money win out, do you think?

Re: signing with MIL, I've not heard they are even in on him. Most recent report some what confirmed by darvish himself said there were 6 teams in on him. Those were cubs, rangers, yanks, stros, twins and dodgers. The twins are very closer to their opening day pay roll from last year so it seems very unlikely they have budget for davish after signing Reed. Stros seem unlikely for reasons you mentioned. Yankees and Dodgers both want to stay under the luxury tax and they really can't do that and sign Darvish without trading other players to clear salary which is easier said than done.

I suppose texas could be a consideration but the talk on them as far as I've heard was that he'd only be an option for them if he was really cheap.

 

[beckdawg]

Another question, here -- if the Cubs get Darvish/Arrieta on a 5-year deal and add $25 million to the payroll, what with KB's raise plus the other arb-avoidance deals, that leaves them committed to no money for a closer upgrade this year, right? If they wanted to go in on Harper next year, even with the increase in the luxury tax cap, do they have any payroll rolling off in 2019, or would they have to dump payroll to get in on Bryce? While the close friendship between he and KB might give the Cubs an edge on him, if we have to dump payroll, we'd have to find someone who wants to buy Heyward's entire remaining contract, right? And odds on that are slim and none unless he has a 5+ win year, I would imagine...

On payroll falling off.... sort of. Heyward is $8 mil cheaper next year assuming he doesn't opt out. Zobrist is $4 mil cheaper and I think his NTC only cover 2018 so in theory they could deal him. Also FWIW, Lester in 2020 is $7.5 mil cheaper than 2018/19 and obvious Zobrist falls off totally after 2019. As that pertains to Harper, they would likely need to structure his deal light on the first few years. But given their competitive window you'd likely do that anyways. Generally teams put more money for guys when they are unlikely to be competitive as eating that cost doesn't matter as much.

 

[CSF77]

That my point..


Epstein not gonna give on to the extra year or 2...

So Arrieta either takes the 3 or 4 yr deal with a chip on his shoulder or takes a 1 yr deal with a team and tries again next year...

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Front load.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Front load.

Front load? In which case we go all-in on this year's FA market and take a pass on the higher end of next year's? I'd rather grab Cobb and Holland now, take my chances in '18, and stay flexible to try and add a Harper or Kershaw next year.

 

[chibears55]

Front load.

I think It more about years not money with Epstein for Arrieta and Darvish because both will be 32 this season.

I dont think he wants to go past 4 yrs with them..

Im also starting to wonder if he looking to make a trade instead for someone under 30 over signing them..

I just hope they can get someone that TOR type because their going to need that to compete for WS this year, their rotation now needs that guy..

Plus there no guarentee theyll get one of the pitching FA next year if their even going to try..
Right now all 4 starters they do have are under team control thru 2021, so unless they trade 1 , there no room..

Why i think Harper their no.1 FA hope for next year...


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[CSF77]

I think It more about years not money with Epstein for Arrieta and Darvish because both will be 32 this season.

I dont think he wants to go past 4 yrs with them..

Im also starting to wonder if he looking to make a trade instead for someone under 30 over signing them..

I just hope they can get someone that TOR type because their going to need that to compete for WS this year, their rotation now needs that guy..

Plus there no guarentee theyll get one of the pitching FA next year if their even going to try..
Right now all 4 starters they do have are under team control thru 2021, so unless they trade 1 , there no room..

Why i think Harper their no.1 FA hope for next year...


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I’m guessing Darvish wants 6 and the Cubs want 5. 25 AAV is most likely not the issue as they offered Jake that over 4. Seeing how Yu is a year younger tacking on 1 year is not a real reach on their offer.

I would give him his 6/150. But I would run it like 30/30/25/25/25/15. That way his final year is in line with his age. At that point he would be the elder vet working with the new kids.

 

[CSF77]

Front load? In which case we go all-in on this year's FA market and take a pass on the higher end of next year's? I'd rather grab Cobb and Holland now, take my chances in '18, and stay flexible to try and add a Harper or Kershaw next year.

Cobb is asking 18AAV to be a #4 SP. Darvish is 1-2 on the rotation for 6 mil more AAV.

Holland runs against what the Cubs do regarding F/A signings. They are far more likely to sign Yu then build trade weight and rent another late inning guy mid season vs commit payroll now.

They already addressed that need and you have to put faith in Edwards and Wilson. Imo signing Hickey will fix the core issues. They had talent but it underperformed expectations.

 

[chibears55]

I’m guessing Darvish wants 6 and the Cubs want 5. 25 AAV is most likely not the issue as they offered Jake that over 4. Seeing how Yu is a year younger tacking on 1 year is not a real reach on their offer.

I would give him his 6/150. But I would run it like 30/30/25/25/25/15. That way his final year is in line with his age. At that point he would be the elder vet working with the new kids.

I saw the cubs supposedly offered Darvish 3 or 4 yrs, which could be why he still hasnt accepted the offer..

My guess is no team has offered 5 or 5 with $$$$, which could be why he still out there

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[TC in Mississippi]

I saw the cubs supposedly offered Darvish 3 or 4 yrs, which could be why he still hasnt accepted the offer..

My guess is no team has offered 5 or 5 with $$$$, which could be why he still out there

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Jim Bowden says that there's an offer for Darvish for 6 years but not the team he wants. I think ultimately it takes 6/$140-$150 for Darvish and 5/$125-$130 for Arrieta.

 

[chibears55]

Jim Bowden says that there's an offer for Darvish for 6 years but not the team he wants. I think ultimately it takes 6/$140-$150 for Darvish and 5/$125-$130 for Arrieta.

I think Darvish going to end up back with either the Rangers or Dodgers...

Cubs are going to miss out on all 3 of Darvish Arrieta and Cobb because tbey don't wanna offer the years...

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[TC in Mississippi]

I think Darvish going to end up back with either the Rangers or Dodgers...

Cubs are going to miss out on all 3 of Darvish Arrieta and Cobb because tbey don't wanna offer the years...

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Everything I'm hearing is that the Dodgers aren't in on Darvish in any sort of a meaningful way. It would be tough for them to shed enough salary, they're just under the tax now and the Rangers probably don't have the money period. The Yankees are said to be looking to trade Robertson and Gardner which would give them the money for Darvish. I think it's Cubs, Yankees or Twins.

 

[chibears55]

Everything I'm hearing is that the Dodgers aren't in on Darvish in any sort of a meaningful way. It would be tough for them to shed enough salary, they're just under the tax now and the Rangers probably don't have the money period. The Yankees are said to be looking to trade Robertson and Gardner which would give them the money for Darvish. I think it's Cubs, Yankees or Twins.

Just saw this..he supposedly met with them last week.
https://twitter.com/JeffWilson_FWST/status/952909366113525761

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[TC in Mississippi]

xz6/

Just saw this..he supposedly met with them last week.
https://twitter.com/JeffWilson_FWST/status/952909366113525761

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I don't think that was a secret, but everything I'm hearing is while they're interested it's a longshot. They would have to shed at least half of Kemp's money plus another player to make it even possible. They were talking on MLB Radio yesterday that none of that is likely to happen.

 

[beckdawg]

Jim Bowden says that there's an offer for Darvish for 6 years but not the team he wants. I think ultimately it takes 6/$140-$150 for Darvish and 5/$125-$130 for Arrieta.

If they were going to get that much I have to believe they would have already got it. In Darvish's case we know the teams that were apparently courting him and 2 of the 6 dropped out. Another 2 would have to shed major salary to make a move and there's been no rumors of trades lined up for them. I doubt the rangers are going that high either. I just don't think the market is going to be there for him.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If they were going to get that much I have to believe they would have already got it. In Darvish's case we know the teams that were apparently courting him and 2 of the 6 dropped out. Another 2 would have to shed major salary to make a move and there's been no rumors of trades lined up for them. I doubt the rangers are going that high either. I just don't think the market is going to be there for him.

I'm assuming the realistic destinations are Cubs, Yankees and Twins. I just don't think he wants to be a Twin. It took them over a month to set up a meeting and even then it wasn't in person but rather via video conference. They may very well be the team with a great offer on the table but he's waiting for the Cubs or Yankees to step up and as you point out the Yankees would have to shed some payroll likely Gardner and Robertson. I guess we'll all see.