Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[anotheridiot]

I would do a 10/15/20/25. Covers arb1-4. Then 30 AAV From his age 30-36. At that point he would be 37 and can go year to year.

If he goes the Arb route he may end up getting less in general over those numbers. Concidering 23 mil is now the all time high on final Arb and that exceeds it. Add to it he would get 30 AAV anyways and would have to fight to get paid 30 mil age 37-38 regardless.

There is a lessen being learned with this off season and it is age at end of deal matters now more than in the past.

It would end up 10/250 and you never know if a major injury would hamper his future earnings. Seeing how he is starting a family you have to look at it from a different perspective.

Honestly the deal is not done yet. I really see them hammering out a extension

You cant give that to KB after you did basically 10 million AAV with Rizzo. ITs not just this deal, its the next one as well.

 

[beckdawg]

Jesse Rogers
✔
@ESPNChiCubs
Source: The Cubs have not come to an agreement with either Kris Bryant or Addison Russell. They both filed for arbitration and will exchange numbers with the Cubs. Can still work out a deal before a hearing.

So looks like those 2 plus grimm are still off on figures.

 

[CSF77]

You cant give that to KB after you did basically 10 million AAV with Rizzo. ITs not just this deal, its the next one as well.

Rizzo is not Bryant. Rizzo took longer to develop and Bryant has won a MVP. Before super 2 status.

From the time he signed they have been a all star team. You could say he is the dynamic that changed this franchise.

So really not the same thing honestly.

 

[CSF77]

I think Bryant would be insane to take that deal.

He will be 30 when he hits F/A. It works against him. Harper will be far younger and testing the market at his age is a no brainer

 

[CSF77]

So looks like those 2 plus grimm are still off on figures.

Not shocking honestly. Addi Should play it year to year right now. His value is depressed. But he also may end up doing a extend for protection. Arm and range have diminished. Injury issues and Baez could take his job. You could argue either way with him.

Bryant’s Arb case should have been near Buster’s. Boras could have been shooting at Howard’s Arb figure but 47 HR’s is something KB has not done yet. So not sure why this was not a easy case.

Again this leads me to think that Theo wants to extend them.

 

[jooo83]

I think Bryant would be insane to take that deal.

Right. Why would he take less than Giancarlo Stanton got for example?

 

[beckdawg]

Gordon Wittenmyer
@GDubCub
Bryant gets first-year arb record $10.85 million. #Cubs

Gordon Wittenmyer
@GDubCub
Russell settles with Cub for $3.2m, avoids arbitration.

dude gettin paid

 

[TC in Mississippi]

He will be 30 when he hits F/A. It works against him. Harper will be far younger and testing the market at his age is a no brainer

I get what you're saying, and the logic is sound to make and offer, but he basically just got $11 mil to avoid arb, and could conceivably make $80 mil in those arb years without an extension. Harper and Machado are younger but they're going to get between $35-$40 mil AAV so to me you can't even think of offering less than 10/$325 right now. I get what's happened to the market this year but I also don't believe 6 + WAR players with MVP potential (and credentials) are going to be affected by that. Again I'd offer 10/$350 over the next 12 months and if that doesn't work you just may not be able to retain him in 4 years.

 

[beckdawg]

This talk of $40 mil aav is legit insane especially when you're talking about harper. The guy has 1 season over 5 wins which going with $8 mil per win is $40 mil. And that doesn't put any leeway in there for the team if he gets hurt in a year or if he's just never better than he already is.

On Bryant I can maybe see the argument of like $35 or if the market is super rich $37 mil. But Mike Trout plays CF, is the best player in baseball and it's not even close and he's at $34 mil on the end of his deal. To go from $34 to $40 because of inflation seems pretty fucking high to me. Bryant isn't as good as Trout either.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

This talk of $40 mil aav is legit insane especially when you're talking about harper. The guy has 1 season over 5 wins which going with $8 mil per win is $40 mil. And that doesn't put any leeway in there for the team if he gets hurt in a year or if he's just never better than he already is.

On Bryant I can maybe see the argument of like $35 or if the market is super rich $37 mil. But Mike Trout plays CF, is the best player in baseball and it's not even close and he's at $34 mil on the end of his deal. To go from $34 to $40 because of inflation seems pretty fucking high to me. Bryant isn't as good as Trout either.

Listen, Harper might shoot himself in the proverbial foot but if he has an MVP type year he's getting the $400 mil. Machado will get $35 AAV and Trout, assuming he stays on his current trajectory, likely gets $45 mil AAV in 3 years. Trout is way undervalued in his current deal and that won't stand. I have no judgment on it whatsoever except that I think the second and third tier guys are going to screwed because this money is going to come out of what they would make.

 

[Starion]

Could we perhaps try new threads for each current / potential deals??

Just stopped in to see what's up with Cubs off-season so far, and nothing but this one monster long thread.

57 pages to read through is :shot:

 

[beckdawg]

Listen, Harper might shoot himself in the proverbial foot but if he has an MVP type year he's getting the $400 mil. Machado will get $35 AAV and Trout, assuming he stays on his current trajectory, likely gets $45 mil AAV in 3 years. Trout is way undervalued in his current deal and that won't stand. I have no judgment on it whatsoever except that I think the second and third tier guys are going to screwed because this money is going to come out of what they would make.

I don't see the logic frankly. That's just not how FA get paid. If you look at Darvish most see his market at $25 mil AAV. He's basically been a 4 win player which is roughly $32-36 mil value. In other words, teams are cutting his pay by about 25% of what his expected value is. Using that logic, if Harper is routinely a 5 win player he should be in the neighborhood of $30 mil. If Bryant is a 6 win player he should be in the range of $36 mil. Teams do that because you have to factor in regression and injury risk. You can't simply pay a player what he's "worth."

I think people are making a mistake in thinking that the reason this offseason is slow is they are saving money for next year. I think the reason this year is slow is teams are evaluating player more similarly and as such they rarely out do each other with bids. The players really shot themselves in the foot during the last CBA with the way they got changes made to the teams over the luxury tax. NYY and LAD were more than happy to pay the additional tax when it didn't come with other penalties but as soon as it started adding draft pick and IFA penalties both immediately got under it. I think that's going to funnel more money to the middle and less to the top not the other way around.

If that's the sort of prices those player are after I'd rather the cubs avoid them no matter how good they are as players. It's just not worth it. I'm not entirely sure how the growth of the luxury tax works year to year but $40 mil for one player on the current years luxury tax threshold is 20%. That's 1 player. I'd far rather a team spread out the risk over 25 men. All it takes is one injury during the season to that player and there goes 20% of your salary. And we're not even talking about a #1 starter. If you're indeed right that a team does this you could very easily end up with your top 2 pitchers and top 3 hitters making $140 mil($40 mil for hitter 1, $30 mil for #1 starter, $25 mil for #2 hitter and starter #2 and $20 mil for #3 hitter). Unless the luxury tax vastly increases that's completely untenable. Even if you say the luxury tax is up in the $225 mil range that leaves you $85 mil for 20 players or roughly $4.25 mil a player and we haven't even discussed a closer.

 

[chibears55]

Rogers at ESPN is saying the cubs could basically have any player they wanted(darvish/arrieta...etc) if they'd go one more year than their current offers.

Probably and obviously because their offering most money per...

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[anotheridiot]

This talk of $40 mil aav is legit insane especially when you're talking about harper. The guy has 1 season over 5 wins which going with $8 mil per win is $40 mil. And that doesn't put any leeway in there for the team if he gets hurt in a year or if he's just never better than he already is.

On Bryant I can maybe see the argument of like $35 or if the market is super rich $37 mil. But Mike Trout plays CF, is the best player in baseball and it's not even close and he's at $34 mil on the end of his deal. To go from $34 to $40 because of inflation seems pretty fucking high to me. Bryant isn't as good as Trout either.

Ok, but lets look at past deals. Grienke got 6 years, 206 all guaranteed money, for an AAV of 34. something. Was he 31 or 32 when he got that deal

Kershaw got 7/215 for the AAV around 30.7 signed that at 26, will be a free agent with an opt out and will get more than Grienke.

Why are darvish and Arrieta only looking at 27 million? Yeah, I say only, but you should get the point. Just because of age or whatever, these two being the best two "proven" pitchers this year are not coming close.

So will Trout, Harper, Bryant all surpass the other, or will there be situations like Grienke being an oddball.

 

[beckdawg]

Ok, but lets look at past deals. Grienke got 6 years, 206 all guaranteed money, for an AAV of 34. something. Was he 31 or 32 when he got that deal

Kershaw got 7/215 for the AAV around 30.7 signed that at 26, will be a free agent with an opt out and will get more than Grienke.

Why are darvish and Arrieta only looking at 27 million? Yeah, I say only, but you should get the point. Just because of age or whatever, these two being the best two "proven" pitchers this year are not coming close.

So will Trout, Harper, Bryant all surpass the other, or will there be situations like Grienke being an oddball.

Heyward was going to be 26 and had put up 27.8 wins over 6 years or 4.63 wins per year. He would have expected value of roughly $37 mil AAV. He got 8/$184 or $23 AAV. Even if you discount him heavily because of his bat prior to knowing what we know now, you could reasonably suggest that he would have been worth over $30 mil annually.

 

[beckdawg]

Also re Kershaw, he was worth 30.7 over his first 6 years. Not 100% sure what year he got his extension but if we go with a similar measure he was worth 5.12 wins per year or roughly $41 mil AAV in "vaule" yet he got roughly $35 mil. That's roughly 85% of the value he "should" have got and I think you could argue that his first 6 seasons were low on his expectation given he was worth 6.7 wins per year the last 3 of his first 6 years. That would be worth approx $54 mil in "value" so $35 mil would be 65% of that. Again they take a huge chunk of what a player is "worth" when doing these deals.

 

[CSF77]

I get what you're saying, and the logic is sound to make and offer, but he basically just got $11 mil to avoid arb, and could conceivably make $80 mil in those arb years without an extension. Harper and Machado are younger but they're going to get between $35-$40 mil AAV so to me you can't even think of offering less than 10/$325 right now. I get what's happened to the market this year but I also don't believe 6 + WAR players with MVP potential (and credentials) are going to be affected by that. Again I'd offer 10/$350 over the next 12 months and if that doesn't work you just may not be able to retain him in 4 years.

He went record deal again. Last year he set the record for a pre Arb salary. Now he surpassed Howard on a first Arb. It is kinda shocking but it just tells me that they will give him anything at this point.

Now the record for a final year is 23 mil and Bryant most likely breaks that also at his current scaling. But with his production it is still a bargain.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs are going to need to hit on at least 2 of these guys to be TOR types or close to it in next 2 to 4 yrs to save themselves money and to continue to compete because top SP are being tied up more now during prime years and won't reach FA til after 30..

Oscar De La Cruz. RHP
Jose Albertos RHP
Adbert Alzolay RHP
Alex Lange RHP
Brendon Little LHP
Thomas Hatch RHP
Jen ho Tseng RHP

The money they are going to have to pour into the position players in next couple years is going to take up most of payroll and unless their willing to take luxery tax hits, their not going to have much to obtain top quality starters...


Why i wouldnt mind if they can add Cole who 26 if the exchange isnt crazy over Darvish or Arrieta



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[chibears55]

Cubs payroll sits at around 156 mil. now ... they are about 40 mil under the Luxery Tax .

Luxery Tax
2018: $197 million

2019: $206 million

2020: $208 million

2021: $210 million



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[CSF77]

Cubs are going to need to hit on at least 2 of these guys to be TOR types or close to it in next 2 to 4 yrs to save themselves money and to continue to compete because top SP are being tied up more now during prime years and won't reach FA til after 30..

Oscar De La Cruz. RHP
Jose Albertos RHP
Adbert Alzolay RHP
Alex Lange RHP
Brendon Little LHP
Thomas Hatch RHP
Jen ho Tseng RHP

The money they are going to have to pour into the position players in next couple years is going to take up most of payroll and unless their willing to take luxery tax hits, their not going to have much to obtain top quality starters...


Why i wouldnt mind if they can add Cole who 26 if the exchange isnt crazy over Darvish or Arrieta



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Lange and Alozay are the safest bets to make it and not be BOR quality. Tseng lacks top end but has a solid floor. Little looks more of a pen arm. De La Cruz is never healthy. Albertos is still a project. Too early with him