Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Jed did say they are looking for a arm and a bat this offseason. Seeing how they will have Castro, Baez, Castillo, Soler and Bryant next year. That leaves Rizzo, Alcantara and Cog as LH hitters. I believe they should look to add a better left fielder hitting from the left. Cabrera at the end of the day is another RH bat in a heavy RH line up next year.

Anywho I believe they will add Lester now and get a LH bat for the OF. He said a vet one so I'm not sure who they are targeting yet.

 

[beckdawg]

This is what you are getting at. Baez has legit 40 home run power. Bryant the same. Soler has anywhere from 25 up to whatever. Tons of raw strength. Doesnt always translate it to the bat. Then, I would put guys like Scwarber, Russell, Volgelbach that are 20 plus home run power. Look around the league. There is only 9 guys with 25 plus home run and we are going into the final month. Baez and Bryant power is extremely special compared to the league. Also, Baez is a XBH machine so it isnt just homers. I dont see how it would be not so difficult to replace Baez power if it flourished. Ill take the wait and see approach.

I think Schwarber is more a 25-30 HR type personally. For some objectivity here, mlb.com puts Soler and Schwarber both at 65 power.

Hear me out here. I'm not saying all these players will make it but hypothetically let's say you do end up with a line up something like this

C - Castillo 10ish HRs
1b - Rizzo 30ish HRs
2B - Castro 20ish HRs
SS - Russell 20ish HRs
3B - Bryant 35ish HRs
OF - Schwarber 25ish HRs
OF - Soler 25ish HRs
OF - Alcantara 20ish HRs

That's roughly 175 HRs. In 2013 there were 8 teams with more homers than that of which 7 were DH/AL teams. In 2012 there were 10 teams with more than that of which only 2 were NL teams. Obviously that relies on players making it and I'm not denying that. All I'm saying here is that it's not like they would be hurting for power without Baez.

 

[SilenceS]

I dont know if they get Lester, but I feel he will be their main target. I have read Scherzer but I dont buy that.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I think Schwarber is more a 25-30 HR type personally. For some objectivity here, mlb.com puts Soler and Schwarber both at 65 power.

Hear me out here. I'm not saying all these players will make it but hypothetically let's say you do end up with a line up something like this

C - Castillo 10ish HRs
1b - Rizzo 30ish HRs
2B - Castro 20ish HRs
SS - Russell 20ish HRs
3B - Bryant 35ish HRs
OF - Schwarber 25ish HRs
OF - Soler 25ish HRs
OF - Alcantara 20ish HRs

That's roughly 175 HRs. In 2013 there were 8 teams with more homers than that of which 7 were DH/AL teams. In 2012 there were 10 teams with more than that of which only 2 were NL teams. Obviously that relies on players making it and I'm not denying that. All I'm saying here is that it's not like they would be hurting for power without Baez.

Out of those players which ones do you pitch around?

 

[beckdawg]

I get that but what separates this era from the 80's is the pitching.

You saying it's better now or then?

I've said this else where but I honestly think today's game really isn't that different from 80's baseball. I think the steroid era distorted our view of what players were and cutting it out of the game has basically returned it to the late 80's/90's game. You could make an argument that with the addition of defensive shifts that it's even harder now for power hitters than it was in the 80's. They had something on ESPN not long ago talking about it and they asked Fielder/Ortiz/others about it and unanimously they all said they hated it because it was really hard for them to hit into.

 

[SilenceS]

I think Schwarber is more a 25-30 HR type personally. For some objectivity here, mlb.com puts Soler and Schwarber both at 65 power.

Hear me out here. I'm not saying all these players will make it but hypothetically let's say you do end up with a line up something like this

C - Castillo 10ish HRs
1b - Rizzo 30ish HRs
2B - Castro 20ish HRs
SS - Russell 20ish HRs
3B - Bryant 35ish HRs
OF - Schwarber 25ish HRs
OF - Soler 25ish HRs
OF - Alcantara 20ish HRs

That's roughly 175 HRs. In 2013 there were 8 teams with more homers than that of which 7 were DH/AL teams. In 2012 there were 10 teams with more than that of which only 2 were NL teams. Obviously that relies on players making it and I'm not denying that. All I'm saying here is that it's not like they would be hurting for power without Baez.

I would bank on at least 2 or 3 of those guys not making it.

 

[CSF77]

You saying it's better now or then?

I've said this else where but I honestly think today's game really isn't that different from 80's baseball. I think the steroid era distorted our view of what players were and cutting it out of the game has basically returned it to the late 80's/90's game. You could make an argument that with the addition of defensive shifts that it's even harder now for power hitters than it was in the 80's. They had something on ESPN not long ago talking about it and they asked Fielder/Ortiz/others about it and unanimously they all said they hated it because it was really hard for them to hit into.

Rizzo bunted down to 3B. They gave him 1B for free and took it. Lard boys need use their heads vs whining.

 

[SilenceS]

I think Schwarber is more a 25-30 HR type personally. For some objectivity here, mlb.com puts Soler and Schwarber both at 65 power.

Hear me out here. I'm not saying all these players will make it but hypothetically let's say you do end up with a line up something like this

C - Castillo 10ish HRs
1b - Rizzo 30ish HRs
2B - Castro 20ish HRs
SS - Russell 20ish HRs
3B - Bryant 35ish HRs
OF - Schwarber 25ish HRs
OF - Soler 25ish HRs
OF - Alcantara 20ish HRs

That's roughly 175 HRs. In 2013 there were 8 teams with more homers than that of which 7 were DH/AL teams. In 2012 there were 10 teams with more than that of which only 2 were NL teams. Obviously that relies on players making it and I'm not denying that. All I'm saying here is that it's not like they would be hurting for power without Baez.

Also, that team would steal very little bases. So, you would be giving up power and not gaining any speed or dynamic ability.

 

[SilenceS]

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/mlb-home-run-numbers-are-way-down-in-2014/

Lowest homerun total since 93. Power is becoming rarer these days and teams will covet it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

You saying it's better now or then?

I've said this else where but I honestly think today's game really isn't that different from 80's baseball. I think the steroid era distorted our view of what players were and cutting it out of the game has basically returned it to the late 80's/90's game. You could make an argument that with the addition of defensive shifts that it's even harder now for power hitters than it was in the 80's. They had something on ESPN not long ago talking about it and they asked Fielder/Ortiz/others about it and unanimously they all said they hated it because it was really hard for them to hit into.

Average pitching velocity is significantly higher. 91 is easier to track than 97. The reaction time/adjustments, now that PEDs are actually tested for, make things more difficult for the hitter. Ted Williams had a defensive shift. That's how long these ideas have been around. His career turned out OK. They need to dump the mound and make it flat.

 

[CSF77]

Was thinking after reading on mlb trade. Philli is needing mid tier pitching next year. They have Brown in LF coming off a low. So Jackson plus cash for Brown. Adds a LH bat in LF and Phills get their needed mid tier.

Change of scenery may be need for both guys here.

 

[CSF77]

Average pitching velocity is significantly higher. 91 is easier to track than 97. The reaction time/adjustments, now that PEDs are actually tested for, make things more difficult for the hitter. Ted Williams had a defensive shift. That's how long these ideas have been around. His career turned out OK. They need to dump the mound and make it flat.

I'll bet the lowering of the mound the first time increased arm injuries. Bad idea

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'll bet the lowering of the mound the first time increased arm injuries. Bad idea

Man was designed to throw on flat ground and throwing from the mound is beginning to be part of the discussion of those injuries.

And as an edit with more info...I couldn't find the full video on line -

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp...74779990&vkey=pr_mlb_network&c_id=mlb_network

Tom House: "We're designed to throw on flat ground. … What happens to kids today? They pitch too much year-round and they don't throw enough. … They only time they throw is in a practice or a game, and the pitcher's are [throwing] off the mound. … Let them play on flat ground. Let them throw stuff, throw anything. Stay off the mound except for game day, throw as much as you can on flat ground the rest of the time."

 

[CSF77]

Man was designed to throw on flat ground and throwing from the mound is beginning to be part of the discussion of those injuries.

Pitchers went 200 IP more frequently and the pen was used less back then. Not the case now.

So how is it that with improved technology and training and medical knowledge injuries are higher now than before?

They lowered the mound to increase run production. Flatten it will cause a greater increase of injuries.

If they want to increase run production there are easier ways than risking injury. Enforcing the strike zone is the easiest way. 2nd is making the DH league wide. 3rd is making OF dimensions standardized and making teams comply.

 

[CSF77]

Interesting but the bottom line is the game changed after the lowering of the mound. Rotations went 4 to 5. BP became more predominate. Complete game a thing of the past.

If I would ask 1 person what they thought about it, it would be Nolen Ryan.

 

[beckdawg]

Also, that team would steal very little bases. So, you would be giving up power and not gaining any speed or dynamic ability.

Agreed which is why I've been kinda meh on the way they've focused so heavy on power. That said, it's not like Baez is adding a ton there either. He's got decent speed and all but I think over the next several years you'll start to see him avoid stealiing as a lot of power hitting MI do. If you remember this was part of my issue with Castro initially though I've sort of changed my opinion there after the Russell trade because ultimately I think Russell ends up there and Castro is at 3B or 2B in the nearish future.

 

[beckdawg]

Average pitching velocity is significantly higher. 91 is easier to track than 97. The reaction time/adjustments, now that PEDs are actually tested for, make things more difficult for the hitter. Ted Williams had a defensive shift. That's how long these ideas have been around. His career turned out OK. They need to dump the mound and make it flat.

They didn't shift anywhere near as much as they do now. Some teams are up to 10% of the time doing the shift with one player on the left side of the field. As for the velocity, perhaps. But overall the average runs per game are fairly similar to the late 80's.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/mlb-home-run-numbers-are-way-down-in-2014/

Lowest homerun total since 93. Power is becoming rarer these days and teams will covet it.

Also agreed. But, that's been one of the focuses of this organization. So as I said, it's not like they are barren after Baez Bryant and Soler.

 

[Parade_Rain]

They didn't shift anywhere near as much as they do now. Some teams are up to 10% of the time doing the shift with one player on the left side of the field. As for the velocity, perhaps. But overall the average runs per game are fairly similar to the late 80's.

I didn't say that. I specifically stated they pulled a shift on Ted Williams and he did just fine. It takes a player getting his head out of his ass to learn how to beat it.

 

[brett05]

I'll bet the lowering of the mound the first time increased arm injuries. Bad idea

I want the mound raised up the five they took off