Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

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CSF77

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Calling out Appel this year is like calling out Rizzo in his stint with the Pads. Too short to tell. Johnson has a 6... ERA at Tenn. Anyone calling him a turd yet?
 

CSF77

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Appel isn't done by any stretch but the way he was touted here by some (that he was worth wasting an entire draft over in 2012 for example) was wrong.

The system lacks arms. If Almora was not in the system they still have Bonifacio and Castro who fit the same profile.

For that matter if you plug Baez in CF where he played in HS and keep Castro at SS it is a wash vs Baez at SS and Almora at CF. Baez is avg 10 more errors than Castro at SS. Doubt Baez makes 10 errors in Cf...

Anyways. Arms are a higher demand in the league due to injury. Theo made that pick because he went to dinner at his house and had a word of mauth deal in place. If he had previous info that Hou would pass on him and he would fall then ya.

Regardless best talent was Brux. The catch drafted is in the ML now. So that was a good pick. Corea is not close as is Almora. They pick Appel and take Bryant the next you are looking at a core hitter and a 1/2 SP that have shorter cook times than HS picks.

We would be looking at Appel, Edwards and Johnson as a pitching core. Doubt any here would complain and it makes more sense over stacking RH bats as they have. Baez/Soler/Almora/Bryant...over doing it.
 

beckdawg

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To some extent I think people overrate pitching in the post steroid boon. Right now the league ERA is 3.81 meaning of all the pitchers the average is that. However, I want to clarify what I mean about pitching being overrated. The top 15-25 pitchers are absolutely not overrated. My point is more that if you're not talking about one of those guys then finding someone isn't nearly as rare. Take Garza for example. Best pitcher on the trade market last july and this year struggles to find a contract even with no draft compensation attached. The flip side to that is power is underrated now. Players that can hit 30 homers in this era of baseball are just as rare as elite pitchers. 14 players last season hit 30 homers and it's been in the 20-25 range the 2 years prior to that. Only 5 hit more than 35 last year which probably should be where you start talking for someone like a Baez or Bryant.

I have no problem with taking a pitcher over a hitter if he's going to be that ace. However, how many guys do you have to draft to get that guy? Injuries have absolutely wrecked a lot of guys this year. And of those, how many truly end up aces? If the guy ends up a 2 or 3 pitcher you're probably better off with a hitter as they tend to be more projectable. I honestly like what the cubs have done in their attempt to find pitching. It's so volatile that guys like Edwards add a few MPH one year and go from nothing to top 100 prospects. So, using your high draft picks on more projectable hitters and spending more picks on pitching later gives you more of a chance to find some of these guys who may have some perceived flaws. A lot of very good pitching prospects have come out of that sandwich round/second round.
 

dabynsky

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Calling out Appel this year is like calling out Rizzo in his stint with the Pads. Too short to tell. Johnson has a 6... ERA at Tenn. Anyone calling him a turd yet?
Was Johnson sent back to extended spring training yet? Look the point is that the guy that supposedly everyone knew was awesome and was going to be in the majors quickly and was only passed on because he was expensive struggled to make it out of A ball. Could he still turn into an ace? Of course, but the reality of the situation is that Appel wasn't this once in a generation type talent that was so much better than his peers in the past two drafts. Bryant sure looks a whole lot better taken at number 2 right now, but time will tell.
 

CSF77

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Take Garza for example. Best pitcher on the trade market last july and this year struggles to find a contract even with no draft compensation attached.

His injury history was the biggest factor why no one wanted to give him the deal he wanted.

The fact that teams are not willing to give up 1-3 round pick shows that prospect values are increasing.

Look the point is that the guy that supposedly everyone knew was awesome and was going to be in the majors quickly and was only passed on because he was expensive struggled to make it out of A ball. Could he still turn into an ace? Of course, but the reality of the situation is that Appel wasn't this once in a generation type talent that was so much better than his peers in the past two drafts. Bryant sure looks a whole lot better taken at number 2 right now, but time will tell.


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp...tebook_id=73348562&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

HOUSTON -- Setback is never a word fans want to hear about No. 1 Draft picks, especially for hometown favorites like the Astros' Mark Appel.

Though minor, the word nevertheless described the situation for Appel, who is leaving Class A Advanced Lancaster to participate in extended spring training sessions in Florida, general manager Jeff Luhnow said on Friday.

"First and foremost, Mark is not injured," Luhnow said of the club's No. 2-rated prospect. "Mark has pitched four years at Stanford and was very used to a seven-day routine. Even last year in short-season in Quad Cities, he pitched about every seven days.

"He had his appendectomy and missed almost all of Spring Training, so he never got into the routine of pro ball. We thought he could catch up by jumping right into the rotation at Lancaster. That hasn't been the case."

Appel has a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings of work this season and had allowed two home runs, as many as he served up in nearly three times as many innings during stints with Class A Short Season Tri-City and Class A Quad Cities last season.

"It's a little unsettling, and the results aren't what he's capable of at this point," Luhnow said. "His stuff just wasn't as crisp as it normally is."

Appel's velocity had also dipped since Spring Training, raising injury concerns. Luhnow said there had not been a need to run tests or an MRI exam on Appel, who had not complained of any pain.

"The feeling was after I spoke to him, we'll take half a step back, have him pitch in some extended games and have him get more used to the pro routine," Luhnow said.

"It's a delay in him getting to a full-season club, but I want to reiterate that he is healthy. There's plenty of time for Mark to come back and have a successful season with us."

This is the first case this season of any significant issue affecting the Astros' four-man tandem Minor League rotations, which use two starting pitchers in each game. It theoretically reduces workload in a given start but also cuts down time between outings.




Get over it.
 

CSF77

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They have been attacking the draft from a volume approach. From that depth they are hoping for back fill.

Johnson was the best draft pick they made. The best arms have come via trade. Edwards the best of them and the Rangers have said they screwed up on that one.

With a increase of value in prospects and add in injury rates being higher for pitching it directly relates to value. A quality arm has higher value because of Injury decreasing the field.

Less of something means it has higher value. Filling a system with filler arms just gives you more of a bad thing.

What I see happening is teams will not give up any quality arms via trade soon due to this fact. So the whole back door sell off system will net arms like Black at best.


It just will tie to the draft and the over seas phase more where top of the rotation projections will be viewed as more valuable due to the lacking vs relative production values.


With PED's taken out of the game quality pitching and team D values increase because less balls are being put into the OF bleachers.

IE the ball is in play more now.


VS you would value a SO pitcher more in the PED era to keep the ball out of play because it was going to the bleachers more.
 

CSF77

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Another point:

A SP that keeps his pitch count down. Keeps the pen out of it until the 8th. High SO pitchers get into higher pitch counts early. (another Garza factor here. This was common for him)

That puts 2nd rate arms into games more and out of the hands of the best quality arms on the team.

So again this ties to pitchers who have command having higher value over pitchers who depend on stuff.
-Command pitchers can pitch to location and force contact to non power zones.
-SO pitchers have to log more pitches to work SO's. (In general/guys with trick pitches are an exception like Tanaka (not the norm))

That is why Shark have been logging in more IP/game. and it ties to his SO/9 decreasing. He is putting the ball into play more but can get a SO when needed.

That is why he is becoming a top of the rotation type. It is not because of his stuff.
 

SilenceS

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Did know one read why Appel went to extended spring training?
 

CSF77

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Cashner/Shark

Same guy drafted Carpenter/Halladay

Cash and Carpenter both traded before their potential was reached.

Talk about full circle.

Can't remember with Carpenter...regardless not given his due lets say
 

SilenceS

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Boy, the more and more I hear about Shark getting the more and more I have a sick feeling in my stomach that this will be a huge mistake.
 

dabynsky

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I posted it. See if they can at least attempt it at least.
I have read it. That changes the fact that the Cubs two first round picks are younger than Mark Appel and performing at equal or higher levels of competition right now? I clearly stated that Appel wasn't done, but the fact that this setback has delayed his timetable. Either way I feel pretty good about having Kris Bryant at the moment. We will see in five plus years the true results.
 

dabynsky

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Boy, the more and more I hear about Shark getting the more and more I have a sick feeling in my stomach that this will be a huge mistake.
I love Samardzija, but I am not certain what a good April does to change our opinions on him. He has shown these flashes in each season he has started. The question is can he sustain it over a full 200 innings. If he can then yes this could be a huge mistake, but if he is always just teasing us with these stretches a package better than the Garza haul could be better long term.
 

CSF77

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I have read it. That changes the fact that the Cubs two first round picks are younger than Mark Appel and performing at equal or higher levels of competition right now? I clearly stated that Appel wasn't done, but the fact that this setback has delayed his timetable. Either way I feel pretty good about having Kris Bryant at the moment. We will see in five plus years the true results.

Was talking about Almora. Not Bryant. Bryant was the best talent in that draft.

Almora is a singles hitter. As much crap is spewed about Castro and his lack of power surprised the same are pumping up Almora and his singles hitting ability.

Pot meet Kettle.
 

CSF77

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I love Samardzija, but I am not certain what a good April does to change our opinions on him. He has shown these flashes in each season he has started. The question is can he sustain it over a full 200 innings. If he can then yes this could be a huge mistake, but if he is always just teasing us with these stretches a package better than the Garza haul could be better long term.

You look at his pitch counts. If he is getting into the 7th inning around 80 more so than he is progressing as a pitcher. If he is is getting into 80 in the 5-6th than he is not progressing.

Pitching to contact means you can locate your pitches. VS depending on if his split is working that day.

That was his problem before. A game was splitter. B was......

Now A game is pitching to contact with a splitter in his hip pocket.
 

SilenceS

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Was talking about Almora. Not Bryant. Bryant was the best talent in that draft.

Almora is a singles hitter. As much crap is spewed about Castro and his lack of power surprised the same are pumping up Almora and his singles hitting ability.

Pot meet Kettle.

Alcantara and Almora are Castro type players. People just hype them more because Castro is old news and they are new. Hot flavor of the month. Also, people praise Almora for his instincts and people rip on Castro for being dumb.
 

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Everyone is in on the Jen Ho Tseng train now, right?


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