Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[SilenceS]

Villanueva is trade bait/ back up plan. His weight gain is a concern


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[MRubio52]

Someone is going to give Villanueva a shot based on the glove alone.

I don't know if he can hit but he doesn't quite suck.


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[CSF77]

What's Bryant have to do with Villanueva? That's like saying Barry Bonds is a better outfielder than Junior Lake. If Villanueva is a .250/.320/.400 player with great defense(his calling card) he can be a starting 3B in the majors. Maybe not on the cubs because Baez and Bryant(and possibly Olt) are better prospects. But look at 3B last season in the 20 HR range.

Kyle Seager - 22 HRs .260/.338/.426
Matt Dominguez - 21 HRs .241/.286/.403
Mark Reynolds - 20 HRs .220/.306/.393
Todd Frazier - 19 HRs .234/.314/.407
Manny Machado - 14 HRs .283/.314/.432
Martin Prado - 14 HRs .282/.333/.417
Pablo Sandoval - 14 HRs .278/.341/.417
Trevor Plouffe - 14 HRs .254/.309/.392
Chase Headley - 13 HRs .250/.347/.400
Chris Johnson - 12 HRs .321/.358/.457
Mike Moustakas - 12 HRs .233/.287/.364
Nolan Arenado - 10 HRs .267/.301/.405
Alberto Callaspo - 10 HRs .258/.333/.369
David Freese - 9 HRs .262/.340/.381
Michael Young - 8 HRs .279/.335/.395

Only 6 3B had 24+ HR power. The other 15 players I listed here are between 8 and 22 HRs. And that doesn't include the 9 teams that didn't even have a 3B who had qualified plate appearances. Point here is that while Villanueva may not end up the cubs future 3B because of obviously better options, that doesn't mean he can't play at the major league level with 20 HR max power. So, to sit here and cast him off as a AAA player because of 100 poor at bats while discarding Baez who had an actual worse 100 ABs is silly.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to suggest he is an amazing player. I'm just point out the fact that you're being a bit ridiculous suggesting he's a never will be because of poor showing in his first AAA stint. It's pretty clear your issue is that Bryant isn't at AAA since you've been clamoring for that for weeks now. To be honest, I think you're wasting your time. In my opinion they probably will keep Bryant in AA until September and then call him up to face major league pitching.

Skip AAA. Doubt that.

If they were smart they should just promote Bryant up and move him to RF in Iowa to get him some reps out there. Iowa doesn't have a RF worth a damn anyways. Then you can keep your mediocre 3B...ya he has a glove... and just because the league is shallow at 3B that doesn't make him a good one.

Let me be 100% clear here. 3B is a power position. A 20 HR bat is lacking for that position. You can lose power at 2B/SS/CF due to more of the plays going there. Where you have less D plays (in general) you can lose some D in lieu of O.

If it is me I'm moving Bryant to RF in the promotion. Schierholtz is short term and Soler can't keep healthy. Makes 100% sense. Olt hits for power and is under control.

Baez is another story. I wouldn't show my hand yet and see if some team wants to pay out prospects for Castro.

In the end I would rather have Baez at 3B. But he has not evolved as a D player to this point. But on the other hand his bat is impact.


IMO Olt will be the long term solution at 3B. He has plus D and 30 HR potential vs middling around with 15.

Bryant should goto RF. plus arm and can focus on hitting.

Baez not sure to be honest yet. Depends on if they can get a quality return for Castro.

 

[beckdawg]

Then you can keep your mediocre 3B...ya he has a glove... and just because the league is shallow at 3B that doesn't make him a good one.

It means the barrier to entry is much lower. 10 years ago you'd probably be right about him not having enough power. But in a post steroids era, only 54 players in all off baseball at any position had more than 20 HRs. People need to understand that apparently they had a big impact. If you go back and look at numbers for 3B in 1990 and prior you see 5 3B with 20+ power. Wade Boggs a great of that era at 3B only hit more than 11 HRs one time in in 1987 with 24. I'm not saying Villanueva will be as good as Boggs just illustrating the point that 3B haven't always been 25+ HR types.

As I've said before though, I doubt he sticks with the cubs. I think he'll be trade bait eventually. My only point was that you need to relax an your statement that he's going to be a never will be. If he can continue to hit for at least .250 average and a .310-.320 OBP he'll likely be a starter for someone but he's very unlikely to be a 1st division regular. The cubs last year are a perfect example of this. They trotted out a platoon of headlined by Valbuena whom most would consider a lessor player. However, if those are your only options that's what you have to do.

 

[CSF77]

I would rather have a hitter that can push 30 HR's. Say 25-30 vs 15-20 at 3B. If not he should be a .300 hitter not a .250 hitter.

Other words be top end at one thing. Not so so and a good glove. We have that with Barney...that has gone well at a less demanding O position.

 

[CSF77]

Other words settling for mediocre has put the Cubs at the bottom already. Why bother.

 

[CSF77]

It means the barrier to entry is much lower. 10 years ago you'd probably be right about him not having enough power. But in a post steroids era, only 54 players in all off baseball at any position had more than 20 HRs. People need to understand that apparently they had a big impact. If you go back and look at numbers for 3B in 1990 and prior you see 5 3B with 20+ power. Wade Boggs a great of that era at 3B only hit more than 11 HRs one time in in 1987 with 24. I'm not saying Villanueva will be as good as Boggs just illustrating the point that 3B haven't always been 25+ HR types.

When you have Olt, Baez and Bryant in the pipe you can forget about lacking hitters. I wouldn't mind him as a corner UI who can fill 3B for Olt when they have to DH. Outside of that pass.

What they need is a corner LH power hitting OF.

 

[Parade_Rain]

When you have Olt...you can forget about lacking hitters.

Currently hitting .169.

 

[CSF77]

Currently hitting .169.

And a rookie. And has 9 HR's.

Minor league career.: .258/.365/.479 67 HR/205 BB/385 SO in 1244 AB.

Ya he is out matched right now. But what minor legue stats show is where they should be on even ability and experience. He just needs maturing IMO.

Minors:
Olt: 1 HR 18.56 AB
Vill: 1 in 31.98 AB.

little difference going on here.

 

[Parade_Rain]

And a rookie. And has 9 HR's.

Minor league career.: .258/.365/.479 67 HR/205 BB/385 SO in 1244 AB.

Ya he is out matched right now. But what minor legue stats show is where they should be on even ability and experience. He just needs maturing IMO.

Minors:
Olt: 1 HR 18.56 AB
Vill: 1 in 31.98 AB.

little difference going on here.

My post regarded Olt only. I hope he does well and improves, but I wouldn't be including him in the "hitters" category yet. It's not a foregone conclusion.

 

[CSF77]

My post regarded Olt only. I hope he does well and improves, but I wouldn't be including him in the "hitters" category yet. It's not a foregone conclusion.

I see that. But just like any trade it takes time to perfect your craft.

My point was on a even playing field Olt put up more power than Vil.

Olt is not perfect but has a good glove and hits for power. And takes walks. He SO also and should avg .250 BA. He is not elite at all but passable.

 

[chibears55]

My post regarded Olt only. I hope he does well and improves, but I wouldn't be including him in the "hitters" category yet. It's not a foregone conclusion.

I think Olt can be a .270 hitter, he just needs to figure out what changed him from a K every 3 AB in minors to a K every 4 in majors..

all those extra non contacts and putting ball in play, takes away chances of a hit.
I think if/when he figures that out, along with getting consistent ABs will help increase his batting avg.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I see that. But just like any trade it takes time to perfect your craft.

My point was on a even playing field Olt put up more power than Vil.

Olt is not perfect but has a good glove and hits for power. And takes walks. He SO also and should avg .250 BA. He is not elite at all but passable.

I should be clear. We are in agreement here. If he can hit .250+ then I think he can handle 3B for quite a while.

 

[beckdawg]

When you have Olt, Baez and Bryant in the pipe you can forget about lacking hitters. I wouldn't mind him as a corner UI who can fill 3B for Olt when they have to DH. Outside of that pass.

What they need is a corner LH power hitting OF.

I'm pretty sure I've said this multiple times now but I'll give it another go. In no way do I see Villanueva as a long term piece for the cubs. However, that doesn't mean he can't be a valuable trade piece for something they do need. If he can be an average to slightly below average 3B, that's a pretty big trade chip especially when you consider how much team control he still has. If you package him with a couple of other players that may net you a 1/2 starter or potentially an left handed outfielder. At this point, Villanueva is likely as valuable if not more valuable than Olt was when the cubs traded Garza away. Only reason I'm saying more valuable here is Olt's vision issues were a big question mark. Texas likely over paid for Garza but even if you say that's the type of deal the cubs are going to have to give away to get a front line starter in the future, you package Villanueva with two lower level pitching prospects(Grimm and Ramirez replacements in this scenario) and all you're missing is the Edwards level prospect. I'm not certain what it would take but it's possible someone like Blackburn or Rob Z.(can't spell his last name to save my life) might be enough to net that sort of front line starter. That's what I see out of Villanueva for the cubs. He's a pretty decent trade chip for something the cubs probably have 0 need for.

 

[brett05]

I'm pretty sure I've said this multiple times now but I'll give it another go. In no way do I see Villanueva as a long term piece for the cubs. However, that doesn't mean he can't be a valuable trade piece for something they do need. If he can be an average to slightly below average 3B, that's a pretty big trade chip especially when you consider how much team control he still has. If you package him with a couple of other players that may net you a 1/2 starter or potentially an left handed outfielder. At this point, Villanueva is likely as valuable if not more valuable than Olt was when the cubs traded Garza away. Only reason I'm saying more valuable here is Olt's vision issues were a big question mark. Texas likely over paid for Garza but even if you say that's the type of deal the cubs are going to have to give away to get a front line starter in the future, you package Villanueva with two lower level pitching prospects(Grimm and Ramirez replacements in this scenario) and all you're missing is the Edwards level prospect. I'm not certain what it would take but it's possible someone like Blackburn or Rob Z.(can't spell his last name to save my life) might be enough to net that sort of front line starter. That's what I see out of Villanueva for the cubs. He's a pretty decent trade chip for something the cubs probably have 0 need for.

Villanueva will only get that value tho if he can show it at the Big League Level for a year +. The Cubs using Olt at the moment don't have the ability to draw that kind of value out of him unfortunately.

 

[SilenceS]

I would be more inclined with Olt being .230 hitter with a lot of K's and a lot of walks.

 

[CSF77]

Villanueva will only get that value tho if he can show it at the Big League Level for a year +. The Cubs using Olt at the moment don't have the ability to draw that kind of value out of him unfortunately.

I agree.

What I've though of was trying to make a trade with the Dodgers.

Matt Kemp cf
8 years/$160M (2012-19)

8 years/$160M (2012-19)
signed extension with LA Dodgers 11/18/11 (avoided arbitration)
$2M signing bonus (paid 4/15/12)
12:$10M, 13:$20M, 14:$21M, 15:$21M, 16-19:$21.5M annually

Adrian Gonzalez 1b
7 years/$154M (2012-18)

7 years/$154M (2012-18)
signed extension with Boston 4/15/11
$6M signing bonus
12-16: $21M annually, 17-18:$21.5M annually
partial no-trade clause

Carl Crawford lf
7 years/$142M (2011-17)

7 years/$142M (2011-17)
signed by Boston as a free agent 12/11/10
$6M signing bonus (paid in $1M increments 1/10, 5/1, 6/1, 7/1, 8/1, 9/1/10)
11:$14M, 12:$19.5M, 13:$20M, 14:$20.25M, 15:$20.5M, 16:$20.75M, 17:$21M
no-trade protection:

Crawford may block deals to two clubs
if traded, club acquiring Crawford may not subsequently trade him to NY Yankees

Andre Ethier cf
5 years/$85M (2013-17), plus 2018 option

5 years/$85M (2013-17), plus 2018 club option
signed extension with LA Dodgers 6/12/12
13:$13.5M, 14:$15.5M, 15:$18M, 16:$18M, 17:$17.5M, 18:$17.5M club option ($2.5M buyout)
2018 salary guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2017 or 1,100 PAs in 2017-18


Off the books:

Josh Beckett rhp
4 years/$68M (2011-14)

4 years/$68M (2011-14)
signed extension with Boston 4/5/10
$5M signing bonus
11:$15.75M, 12:$15.75M, 13:$15.75M, 14:$15.75M

Hanley Ramirez ss
6 years/$70M (2009-14)

6 years/$70M (2009-14)
signed extension with Florida 5/17/08
09:$5.5M, 10:$7M, 11:$11M, 12:$15M, 13:$15.5M, 14:$16M

Chad Billingsley rhp
3 years/$35M (2012-14), plus 2015 option

3 years/$35M (2012-14), plus 2015 club option
signed extension with LA Dodgers 3/29/11
12:$9M, 13:$11M, 14:$12M, 15:$14M club option ($3M buyout)
limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 10 clubs)

Dan Haren rhp
1 year/$10M (2014), plus vesting option

1 year/$10M (2014), plus 2015 vesting option
signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 11/25/13
2015 player option worth $10M with 180 innings pitched in 2014 (if traded, player option is $11M with 180 IP)
performance bonuses: $0.25M each for 24, 27, 30 starts. $0.5M for 32 starts. $0.25M each for 150, 160, 170 innings. $0.5M each for 180, 190 IP
identical package of performance bonuses for 2015 if option vests


They have Joc Pederson in AAA with no job opening. He fits the corner OF mold I was thinking of.

Now I would not take a OF off of them. No thanks. But with them losing Beckett (good thing for them), Haren and Billingsley they are going to need a SP next year. Not to mention they will need a MI. Not sure if they extend Ramirez or not.

Regardless I would be pushing for Joc and offer up some talent to do so. They could use Castro or Alcantara if they want to lose some payroll at SS. SP they are losing 3 SP and that team would smoke teams with Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu and Shark....ouch.

But on the flip side:

Say they pull a deal. Say Shark and Alcantara for Pederson, Lee and Chris Reed.

Looking at next year they would have:

LF: Pederson
CF: Lake
RF: Bryant
3B: Olt
SS: Castro
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo

SP: Wood
SP: Jackson
SP: Arrieta
SP: Hendricks
SP: Lee

AAA: Reed, Johnson and Edwards

That is something to start with.

 

[SilenceS]

Vitters goes to the DL and guess who is going to play OF tonight? Alcantara! Im thinking this wont be a one time thing.

 

[CSF77]

Vitters goes to the DL and guess who is going to play OF tonight? Alcantara! Im thinking this wont be a one time thing.

Not surprised.

 

[CSF77]

Leta see. Cubs trade Bonifacio in July. Promote Alcantara up to CF. Barney dumped off or wavered. Baez 2B. Sounds about right.