Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[JP Hochbaum]

This doesn't seem right to me, but I trust FanGraphs:

"A year of service time is equal to 172 days, and there are normally around 183 total days in the major league calendar. This means that if a team wants to keep a prospect from accruing a full year of service time, they simply need to leave that player in the minors for around 15-20 days out of the entire season. For example, the Rays left Evan Longoria in the minors for the first two weeks of the 2008 season; as a result, if Longoria hadn’t signed his long-term contract, he would have been under team control through the 2014 season instead of the 2013 season. Technically, this demotion could happen at any point of the year, but it’s most common for teams to leave a prospect in the minors for the first month or so of the season before calling them up.

Service time is also important when considering a player’s Super Two status. See that page for more details."

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/

 

[chibears55]

He's also one of those guys that I think can jump from AA to the majors given the player profile. I don't see the need to rush him through the system and play musical positions with the AAA roster to make room for him.

He's a mature player with a pro approach, I'd rather they find out he isn't a 3B before moving him around the diamond.

I think if they bring Bryant up this season, its to play everyday at 3B.. any thoughts of moving him to OF was depending on how Olt played and despite the HRs, he hasn't locked down that position.

I think both Bryant and Baez will get their call up by July, if Bryant keeps dominating and Baez Avg. Keeps rising...

Bryant will go to 3B and Baez will play either OF or 2B...

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[SilenceS]

No way do they move Rizzo into the 2 hole. They at least will split up the right handers somehow, and you don't want to have rookies batting back-to-back in the line-up. You got to break them up with some veteran leadership.

It may be more headed in the direction of Alcantara, Castro, Baez, Rizzo, and Bryant. Reason being is everyone is protecting everyone. Hard to pitch around one when you look at who might be next in the line-up, and if/when Soler makes it, slot him in the 6th hole to protect Bryant and find a filler on a short contract until then.

Not now, but somebody with the capabilities of a Mike Morse or Ryan Ludwick to name a couple of examples.

We differ here. You like a mixed lineup. I dont care if they bat right handed or left handed. If you are an everyday player, you should be able to hit against anyone. I dont mind being heavy on one side. I mind when better hitters go down the lineup because of mathups. The reason I think Rizzo would be great as a 2 is because he loves to walk. He isnt over aggresive. Yes, he has really good power but against lefties he has the power of Castro. He loses his legs to try to hit it where they put it. I dont mind this approach but its better suited as a 2 for me. HYes, Rizzo wont steal bases but he will be on base a lot. Baez and Bryant power is a legit 40 plus home run power. I want the best OBP guys in front of them as much as possible when they come up. Understand, this is in a perfect scenario where Baez and Bryant truly make it.

 

[MRubio52]

I think if they bring Bryant up this season, its to play everyday at 3B.. any thoughts of moving him to OF was depending on how Olt played and despite the HRs, he hasn't locked down that position.

I think both Bryant and Baez will get their call up by July, if Bryant keeps dominating and Baez Avg. Keeps rising...

Bryant will go to 3B and Baez will play either OF or 2B...

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I actually have a hard time imagining either is up in July. I don't think Baez has sufficiently answered the approach issues. He's talented as **** so he's going to be able to run into those hot streaks but I've seen and heard that the approach is still horrendous and it's something that has to get to at least just bad before he advances IMO.

Bryant...maybe. I dunno. I don't see the rush in starting his clock to be honest.

 

[MRubio52]

Crashburn Alley Said It Best

 

[chibears55]

June 1 is two days away.

How long do they have to hold Bryant down to not use a year of service? (June 1 used to be the magic date.)

4 years of college (or was it 3?) and a year of pro - how long do they need to wait?

On baez

http://ivyenvy.com/javier-baez-super-two-status/

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[beckdawg]

The other thing to consider is neither has seen a ton of minor league plate appearances. Baez has 1089. Bryant has 367 plus another 813 in college. Oscar Taveras has had 1807 with the Cards and still hasn't seen a full time promotion. Jurickson Profar had 1532 before seeing full time action this year. Mike Trout had 1312. Giancarlo Stanton had 1427. Colby Rasmus had 1776. Wil Myers had 1933. Xander Bogaerts had 1623. Jesus Montero had 2353. Domonic Brown had 2279. Mike Moustakas had 1936. Desmond Jennings had 2246. Buster Posey had 750 + 708 in college. Pedro Alvarez had 990 + 811 in college. Carlos Santana had 2175. Matt Wieters had 693 + 891 in college. Travis Snider had 2200. Cameron Maybin had 1901.

There have been others with less as top 10ish top prospects. Bryce Harper only had 550 minor league PAs though that's not counting his juco stats which I can't seem to readily find. Eric Hosmer only had 1153. Jason Heyward only had 1036. However, that covers about 5 years of top 10 prospects. The minimum seems to be around 1500 PAs between the minors and college. Obviously there are exceptions but all of the guys I've listed were at one time top 10 prospects and were as regarded as Baez/Bryant. And the vast majority of them all had more than 1500+ which is give or take another half season in the minors. And of the three I listed who were well below that, I think you could argue that Heyward wasn't quite ready because he's had good years and bad years. Similarly, you could argue Hosmer could have used another year or two in the minors. While he hit well as a rookie his defense apparently wasn't very good and then he had a sophomore slump. As for Harper, he's been good when healthy but he appears to be quite mature for his age.

Either way, if you give Baez another 300-400 PAs before September and you're looking at around 1500 for both which given the situation of the season seems prudent not to hurry them to the majors for no real reason. In all honesty, I think calling them both up late in the season is probably the best idea. If they suck then the option is pretty obvious that they need more seasoning. If they show well and then show well in spring training again next season you probably consider breaking camp with them or calling them up really early next year. On the contrary, if you call them up prior to Sept. and they disappoint you really don't want to send them back down. However, if they disappoint in Sept. it's not a huge deal anyways as they aren't missing other opportunities.

 

[chibears55]

@TheCCO: Kris Bryant just his his league leading 16th HR #Cubs @smokiesbaseball

Yes, were still in May...

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[chibears55]

@TheCCO: RT @IowaCubsGameDay Alcantara hits his 2nd home run of the game! He's up to 7 HRs this season as the I-Cubs lead 6-4. T7.

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[CSF77]

MILWAUKEE -- Cubs prospect Kris Bryant was 4-for-4 on Wednesday, and he hit his Southern League-leading 17th home run on Friday for Double-A Tennessee. The third baseman was batting over .400 in May with 12 home runs, six doubles and 34 RBIs in 28 games.

What else does he have to prove at Double-A?

"With all due respect to everyone who is looking at these young men and their numbers, he's doing very, very well and we're happy he's doing very, very well," Cubs manager Rick Renteria said Friday. "I'll say this: Even when you get to the big leagues you always have some room to learn. [To say] that he wouldn't have anything else to learn in Double-A, I guess that can be debated.

"We're glad he's doing well," Renteria said. "As an organization, everybody is comfortable where he's at. The organization will make a decision as to how he'll progress."

Even the Smokies are excited about Bryant's performances, and they invited fans to submit "Kris Bryant facts." Among them was teammate Corey Black's submission: "Kris Bryant shouldn't even have to walk to the plate any more, just trot around the bases straight out of the dugout."

Bryant, rated the Cubs' No. 2 prospect by MLB.com, was the their first-round pick in last June's First Year Player Draft. The Cubs do have a talented third baseman at Triple-A Iowa in Christian Villanueva, who was batting .226 with four homers, 13 doubles and 17 RBIs in 47 games.

 

[CSF77]

I'm so sick of Ricky...... PR the hold him at AA then puts together the shittiest line ups.

Lake hitting #2....still beyond me. .293 OBA and .459 SLG is hitting #2.

He leads the Cubs with a .450 SLG and he hits #2.

OBA:
Rizzo .396
Valbuena .384
Bonifacio .319
Castro .318
Lake .296

You start to see a line up develop here.
Running Bonifacio with his speed 1 then Valbuena #2 for his OBA. Rizzo #3. Castro then Lake makes sense to me. After that bat Schierholtz as he is warming up.

 

[JZsportsfan]

I think if they bring Bryant up this season, its to play everyday at 3B.. any thoughts of moving him to OF was depending on how Olt played and despite the HRs, he hasn't locked down that position.

I think both Bryant and Baez will get their call up by July, if Bryant keeps dominating and Baez Avg. Keeps rising...

Bryant will go to 3B and Baez will play either OF or 2B...

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I don't see Baez moving to the OF. I haven't seen any indication that that would be the case, maybe you read something idk but I personally don't think that makes sense. If anything I'd think Bryant would go to RF, and have Baez play 2nd. Sort of depends on whether or not they deem Alcantra ready. I think there is a shot they call up all 3, but also a shot they don't call up any. Wouldn't want to waste a year of arbitration you know

I find it ridiculous that they are still looking for ways to save money on contracts 7 years down the line. Are they worried about Baez and Bryant leaving to FA because they won't pay them enough then? Or what the hell is the big idea?

 

[chibears55]

I don't see Baez moving to the OF. I haven't seen any indication that that would be the case, maybe you read something idk but I personally don't think that makes sense. If anything I'd think Bryant would go to RF, and have Baez play 2nd. Sort of depends on whether or not they deem Alcantra ready. I think there is a shot they call up all 3, but also a shot they don't call up any. Wouldn't want to waste a year of arbitration you know

I find it ridiculous that they are still looking for ways to save money on contracts 7 years down the line. Are they worried about Baez and Bryant leaving to FA because they won't pay them enough then? Or what the hell is the big idea?

I had Alcantara in my thoughts for OF, thinking if they did bring him and baez up this year he would play CF and baez 2B.

Youd think at some point in 2nd half theyd bring all 3 up if they continue to hit but it hard getting a read on what direction their going..

Like with Olt.. yea he struggling barely hitting .200, but he at least provides power drives in runs and plays good defense.. why not just let him play it out and see where it goes ?
No, they play Barney who hitting .180 and provides nothing..

Doing this, are they saying Olt not in their plans and their leaving 3B open for Bryant ?

I agree with the Arb and Arb2 garbage as reason to hold players down .. for the one simple reason is your only hurting the team if he ready and can help them win now..
If he that good of a player, your gonna eventually extend him past his Arbs/FA year anyways.

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[chibears55]

Noticed a couple teams calling up their top prospects this weekend... super 2 date must of past

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[JZsportsfan]

I think the wild card is just what they plan on doing with Bryant. If they plan on moving him to the OF then they are ok, but if they want him at 3B then I would expect some sort of trade in the near future. Whether that involve Castro, Alcantra, or even Baez I do not know. I know many have suggested Bryant play RF which to me makes the most sense. This allows them to place Alcantra and Baez in their natural positions. Say then Alcantra doesn't pan out, move Baez over to 2nd and Bryant back to his natural spot at 3B.

I read at one point Castro could move to 2nd. Who knows if he can transition properly though.

 

[beckdawg]

I find it ridiculous that they are still looking for ways to save money on contracts 7 years down the line. Are they worried about Baez and Bryant leaving to FA because they won't pay them enough then? Or what the hell is the big idea?

Had the Rays not let David Price achieve super 2 status he would have another year of team control that they don't currently. That's not to suggest that you always avoid super 2 status. However, it illustrates the point that avoiding it can make a big deal. And even if it's a case where you can avoid to re-sign a guy, an extra year of team control makes the first big deal substantially smaller. To suggest it doesn't matter is incredibly naive.

If you're likely to be in a playoff chase and have a legit shot to win in the playoffs when you get there and the rookie makes the difference, fine you call him up. But if you're out of it by the start of june there's no point.

 

[dabynsky]

Had the Rays not let David Price achieve super 2 status he would have another year of team control that they don't currently. That's not to suggest that you always avoid super 2 status. However, it illustrates the point that avoiding it can make a big deal. And even if it's a case where you can avoid to re-sign a guy, an extra year of team control makes the first big deal substantially smaller. To suggest it doesn't matter is incredibly naive.

If you're likely to be in a playoff chase and have a legit shot to win in the playoffs when you get there and the rookie makes the difference, fine you call him up. But if you're out of it by the start of june there's no point.

Just to be clear here super 2 status doesn't effect the amount of years a team has control over a player. It just means they get four years of arbitration as opposed to three years and are much more expensive as a result. The player still has to achieve six full years of service time to qualify for free agency whether or not they are super 2.

My new estimated timetable for arrivals is this:
July-August 2014-Alcantara
September 2014-Baez
May 2015-Bryant

I could see some of the other fringe prospects already on the 40 man roster in Watkins, Szczur, Vitters, etc. getting the call at any point depending on when guys are traded/let go.

 

[beckdawg]

We need to be talking about Stephen Bruno more. Dude has raked at every level he's played on.

A- last year: .361/.442/.496 with 3 homers and 2 steals over 292 PAs
A+ last year: .362/.436/.478 with 0 homers and 2 steals over 78 PAs
AA this year: .288/.381/.484 with 3 homers and 4 steals over 176 PAs

Looks like his top end power may be in the 10-15 range over 600 PAs. He also doesn't appear to have much speed with again a 10ish SB range over a full season. That being said the dude can hit. If you compare him to other top 2B prospects on mlb.com's list(Baez is still at SS)

Rougned Odor(Texas AA) - .279/.314/.450 with 6 homers and steals over 138 PAs
Mookie Betts(Boston AA) - .347/.435/.540 with 6 homers and 22 steals over 239 PAs
Arismendy Alcantara(Cubs AAA) - .286/.323/.551 with 7 homers and 10 steals over 201 PAs
Devon Travis(Detroit AA) - .221/.239/.353 with 1 homer and 2 steals over 71 PAs
Taylor Lindsey(LAA AAA) - .230/.319/.365 with 6 homers and 4 steals over 253 PAs
Eddie Rosario(Twins AA last year) - .284/.330/.412 with 4 homers and 7 steals over 313 PAs
Micah Johnson(CHI sox AA last year) - .329/.414/.466 with 3 homers and 10 steals over 170 PAs
Ryan Brett(Rays AA) - .305/.340/.452 with 4 homers and 8 steals over 191 PAs
Jose Peraza(Atlanta A+) - .318/.345/.399 with 0 homers and 26 steals over 240 PAs
Tommy La Stella(Atlanta AAA/MLB) - .293/.384/.359 with 1 homer and 1 steal over 198 PAs

As an aside, I'd love to find some way to get Betts and stick him in the OF(he also plays OF). Bruno isn't as toolsy as a lot of the guys on this which may hold him back in top 100/top 10 positional ratings next year but 3 guys on this are getting on base at a higher clip(Betts, La Stella, and Johnson from last year). And while he isn't hitting a ton of homers he hits a lot of doubles. That's why his slugging is better than everyone but Alcantara and Betts. His ISO is .196 with Betts at .193, Alcantara at .265(was .180 in AA last year so likely helped by PCL) with no one else being above .160.

Not bad for a 7th round pick in 2012.

 

[beckdawg]

Just to be clear here super 2 status doesn't effect the amount of years a team has control over a player. It just means they get four years of arbitration as opposed to three years and are much more expensive as a result. The player still has to achieve six full years of service time to qualify for free agency whether or not they are super 2.

Must have read it wrong. I thought they were taking one of the league min years away rather than making that an extra arbitration year. Regardless, the point still stands. An extra year of arbitration makes that player more expensive in year 2(normal start) of arbitration and on down the line. And to buy out those years is also more expensive because of that.

 

[dabynsky]

We need to be talking about Stephen Bruno more. Dude has raked at every level he's played on.

A- last year: .361/.442/.496 with 3 homers and 2 steals over 292 PAs
A+ last year: .362/.436/.478 with 0 homers and 2 steals over 78 PAs
AA this year: .288/.381/.484 with 3 homers and 4 steals over 176 PAs

Looks like his top end power may be in the 10-15 range over 600 PAs. He also doesn't appear to have much speed with again a 10ish SB range over a full season. That being said the dude can hit. If you compare him to other top 2B prospects on mlb.com's list(Baez is still at SS)

Rougned Odor(Texas AA) - .279/.314/.450 with 6 homers and steals over 138 PAs
Mookie Betts(Boston AA) - .347/.435/.540 with 6 homers and 22 steals over 239 PAs
Arismendy Alcantara(Cubs AAA) - .286/.323/.551 with 7 homers and 10 steals over 201 PAs
Devon Travis(Detroit AA) - .221/.239/.353 with 1 homer and 2 steals over 71 PAs
Taylor Lindsey(LAA AAA) - .230/.319/.365 with 6 homers and 4 steals over 253 PAs
Eddie Rosario(Twins AA last year) - .284/.330/.412 with 4 homers and 7 steals over 313 PAs
Micah Johnson(CHI sox AA last year) - .329/.414/.466 with 3 homers and 10 steals over 170 PAs
Ryan Brett(Rays AA) - .305/.340/.452 with 4 homers and 8 steals over 191 PAs
Jose Peraza(Atlanta A+) - .318/.345/.399 with 0 homers and 26 steals over 240 PAs
Tommy La Stella(Atlanta AAA/MLB) - .293/.384/.359 with 1 homer and 1 steal over 198 PAs

As an aside, I'd love to find some way to get Betts and stick him in the OF(he also plays OF). Bruno isn't as toolsy as a lot of the guys on this which may hold him back in top 100/top 10 positional ratings next year but 3 guys on this are getting on base at a higher clip(Betts, La Stella, and Johnson from last year). And while he isn't hitting a ton of homers he hits a lot of doubles. That's why his slugging is better than everyone but Alcantara and Betts. His ISO is .196 with Betts at .193, Alcantara at .265(was .180 in AA last year so likely helped by PCL) with no one else being above .160.

Not bad for a 7th round pick in 2012.

Bruno is an interesting guy. He needs to stay healthy and play a full year for me to buy into the bat completely, but he looks like he will be a big leaguer.